Freight Movements in the Upper North Island Presentation 4 September 2009
Freight Key driver supporting economic growth Planning and management of freight Good information Role of NFDS Current patterns Likely future position
General Approach Top down or bottom up Commodity based approach Need to understand current movements Sources of information Included retail and couriers Road, rail and coastal shipping main focus
General Approach - Forecasting Individual commodity forecasts Range of sources of information Recognition of environmental impacts Modal splits Prediction of corridor movements
Key National Findings
National Findings Commodities identified cover about 70 per cent of overall totals 152 million tonnes and 18 billion tonne-kms
Modal Split by Commodity 2006-07 P e r c e n t o f t o t a l Mode Shares for Selected Commotities 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Liquid milk Dairy products Livestock (all by road) Logs and chips Manufactured timber products Meat Horticultural products Aggregate Coal Petroleum products Aluminium and steel Concrete (all by road) Limestone, fertiliser, cement and other minerals Road Rail Coastal Shipping
Summary of Regional Patterns Northland/ Auckland Total tonnes (millions) in 2006-07 Selected Commodities only Waikato/ Bay of Plenty Gisborne/ Hawke s Bay Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ Wellington Tasman/ Nelson/ Marlborough/ West Coast Canterbury Otago/ Southland Northland/ Auckland 33.3 3.5 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 40.7 Waikato/Bay of Plenty Gisborne/ Hawke s Bay Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ Wellington Patterns of movements for selected commodities 2006-07 (million tonnes) 7.1 32.6 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 42.2 0.2 0.3 7.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 17.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.1 Tasman/Nelson/ Marlborough/ West 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.1 3.7 0.2 12.4 Coast Canterbury 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 15.0 1.1 17.5 Otago/Southland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 11.6 12.5 Total 41.3 37.2 8.7 22.2 9.0 20.6 13.6 152.7 High flows for internal movements High level of interaction within Golden Triangle Flows from north North Island and Canterbury to south Total
Forecasts for Future Overall growth to 2031 (25 years) is 70-75 % Between TERNZ and MOT forecasts Growth for rail and coastal shipping picking up broad trends identified Recognises ETS but no specific intervention from Government Growth for rail of about 70 % Growth for coastal shipping of up to about 100% Both of these challenging but both less than GPS targets since imply broadly constant modal splits
Million tonnes Forecast Growth of Freight Movements Total Freight Lifted (million tonnes) 300.0 Retail and Couriers 250.0 200.0 Other Metals & Minerals Limestone Fertiliser Cement, & Concrete Petroleum 150.0 Coal Aggregate 100.0 Horticulture Livestock & Meat 50.0 Logs & Wood Products Milk and Dairy Products 0.0 2006 2011 2016 2031 Year
Total Flows Terminating in Region (m tonnes) Total Flows Originiating in Region (m tonnes 60.0 50.0 Origins of Traffic Forecast 40.0 Growth in 30.0 20.0 Traffic by 10.0 Region 0.0 Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington Tasman/ Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland 2006-07 2031 70.00 60.00 Destinations of Traffic 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington Tasman/ Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland 2006-07 2031
The Position for the Upper North Island
The UNI Position - 1 NFDS database Three types of movements Internal flows within each of the regions Flows between the regions Movements to and from other regions Modal splits
The UNI Position - 2 Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in 2006-07) 12.6 27.8 85.7 Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions
Movements of Freight within Regions Regions 2006-07 (Identified in 2006-07 Commodities) M i l l i o n T o n n e s 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers
Patterns of Inter-Regional Flows to/from Auckland 2006-07 (tonnes) Importance of movements to/from Waikato and Northland Longer distance flows also important Auckland as manufacturing and national distribution hub Consumer of goods
Million tonnes in 2006-07 Movements to/from Auckland - 1 8.00 (tonnes) Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities 2006-07 (million tonnes) 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Northland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers
Tonne-kms (Billions) Movements to/from Auckland 2 tonne-kms Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities 2006-07 (billion tonne-kms) 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers
% by Rail or Coastal Ship Current Modal Splits by Corridor Auckland 1 Modal Splits in Key Corridors to and from Auckland 2006-07 (Rail and Coastal Shipping as per cent of total tonnages) 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Northland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Rail 2006-07 Coastal Ship 2006-07
Patterns of flows to / from Waikato Strong links with Auckland and BOP (the Golden Triangle) Limited linkages further south
Million tonnes in 2006-07 Movements to and from Waikato 9.00 Traffic to/from Waikato for Key Commodities Corridors and Commodities 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Auckland/Northland BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers
Future Growth to 2031
The UNI Position Change to 2031 17.8 Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in 2006-07) 12.6 Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in 2031 27.8 57.2 85.7 136.8 Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions Growth Intra Regional Inter regional Intra-Reg 60% Inter-Reg To/from other 106% regions To/From Outside 41%
Future Growth in Auckland 1 Forecasts of future growth to 2031 Based on Business as usual assumptions Total Growth in Freight Flows by Corridor (billion tonne-kms) Corridor 2006-07 2031 Total Growth Northland 0.81 2.16 168% Auckland 0.77 1.02 32% Waikato 1.41 3.37 139% BOP/Gisborne 0.68 0.95 40% Hawkes Bay 0.20 0.30 52% Taranaki 0.12 0.13 16% South 3.25 4.17 28% Total 7.24 12.11 67% Total Interregional 6.47 11.09 72%
Billion tonne-kms Future Growth in Auckland 2 Forecast Growth of Internal and Inter-Regional Freight Traffic by Corridor (tonne-kms) 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional 2006-07 2031
Million tonnes in 2031 Future Flows by Commodity Traffic to/from Auckland for Key Commodities 2031 Corridors and Commodities (tonne-kms) 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Dairy Products Meat and Livestock Petroleum Aggregate Other Minerals and Metals Logs and Timber Products Horticulture Coal Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Retailing and Couriers
Per Cent of Corridor Flows Modal Split Changes for Auckland tonne-kms Change in Modal Splits by Corridor 2006-07 to 2031 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Rail 2006-07 Rail 2031 Coastal Shipping 2006-07 Coastal Shipping 2031
Key National Findings Movements in tonnage terms dominated by small number of commodities Milk and dairy, logs and wood products and aggregates 60 % of total for selected commodities Typically low value products seeking to minimise the distances travelled Smaller share of tonne-kms 44% of total- but still substantial Longer distance flows for retail and courier, petroleum, coal and horticulture
Findings for Upper North Island Flows Has high share of national traffic Substantial growth of internal flows Very substantial growth inter-regional flows with strong Auckland focus Limited changes in modal shares without interventions substantial growth in traffic Increasing demands on transport networks Planning for freight is important