Cowen Securities 6 th Annual Global Transportation Conference June 11, 2013 This presentation and the discussion today will include forward-looking statements regarding the performance of Alaska Air Group or its subsidiaries. Actual results may differ materially from these projections. Please see our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K for additional information concerning factors that could cause results to differ. Updated 6-5-2013
We are producing after-tax returns well in excess of our cost of capital creating value for owners After-tax ROIC goal is 10% over a business cycle 12% 9% 10.7% 11.7% 13.0% 13.4% 6% 3% 0% 6.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 LTM 3 31 2013 WACC estimated at 7% 8% Adjusted for hedge mark-to-market and unusual items.
Although near-term PRASM is under pressure, we are growing revenues Total Air Group Operating Revenues ($in millions) $4,318 $4,657 $3,400 $3,832 $2,252 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2012 1H 2013* *Q2 uses April & May actuals as disclosed and assumes June unit revenues average of April/May
We have a track record of making capacity adjustments when necessary and using our assets in new ways Region Mainline Capacity Reallocation 2012 vs. 2008 Equiv. A/C Change California (9) Canada (2) Alaska (1) Arizona/Nevada (1) Mexico (1) PNW / Feeder -- Midcon/Transcon 4 Hawaii 18 Profitability Result Bay Area-Hawaii Frequency Changes Market Fall '12 Fall '13 YOY HNLOAK 1.0 0.4 (0.6) HNLSJC 1.0 0.6 (0.4) KOAOAK 1.0 0.6 (0.4) KOASJC 1.0 0.4 (0.6) LIHOAK 1.0 0.4 (0.6) LIHSJC 1.0 0.6 (0.4) OAKOGG 1.0 1.0 - OGGSJC 1.0 1.0 - OGGSMF 1.4 1.0 (0.4) Total 9.4 6.0 (3.4)
Changes continue to result in strong profits and cash flows ($ in millions) $553 $696 $749 $2.5 billion cumulative operating cash flow since 2009 $293 $263 $287 $339 $183 $212 $89 $28 $44 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Adjusted Net Income Operating Cash Flow
We are investing in modest fleet growth and replacing older aircraft Mainline fleet growth with firm orders 140 120 117 124 130-132 132 135 737-900ERs replacing aging 400 & 700 fleets 100 80 60 40 737-400 fleet expected to be fully retired by 2017 20 0 2011 2012 2013E* 2014E* 2015E* 737-400 737-700 NG 737s *Estimates based on current fleet plan, which is fluid. Options for 8 737-900ER aircraft are available in 2015
We are making other investments that will lower unit costs and add features that customers value
We are producing strong free cash flow ($ in millions) $766 $875 $875 million cumulative free cash flow since 2009 $531 $368 $222 $309 $235 $109 $(146) $(146) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 Free Cash Flow Cumulative Free Cash Flow
We are returning a significant amount of cash to shareholders over the next 18 months New $250 million share repurchase program announced September 2012 Value of shares repurchased annually ($ in millions) Cumulative amount - $363 million for 19 million shares. Share count has declined approximately 13%, net of dilution since repurchases began. $120* $63 $49 $45 $79 $59 $44 $76* $24 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2013 Remainder 2014E *Estimate based on pro rated remaining $240 million at December 31, 2012 on current $250 million buyback authorization expected to be completed by Dec. 2014.
Our people continue to deliver award winning service to our customers. We believe this matters. Highest in customer satisfaction among traditional carriers in North America, six years in a row. Performed particularly well in: Flight crew Boarding/deplaning/baggage Check-in experience Reservation experience Cost and fees
We are running an excellent operation 100% Ranking among top US airlines in on-time performance 90% 80% 7th 2nd 1st 1st 1st 1st 70% 60% 50% Rankings in 2008-2010 are among the 10 largest domestic airlines.
Our costs are now more like LCCs vs. large network carriers but we know we have more to do CASM, ex fuel LTM through March 31, 2013 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.59 6.87 6.94 7.46 7.49 8.10 8.94 9.19 10.02 6.0 4.84 5.53 4.0 2.0 0.0
We operate a young fleet with the best fuel consumption rate among US airlines We ve reduced fuel burn on a gallons/asm basis by 16% since 2004 2011** DOT Statistics Fuel gallons per ASM 0.016 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.012 Carrier gal/rpm* Alaska Airlines (AS) 0.0138 Virgin America (VX) 0.0144 Jet Blue (B6) 0.0154 Continental (CO) 0.0156 Southwest (WN) 0.0162 US Airways (US) 0.0163 Delta (DL) 0.0168 United (UA) 0.0170 AirTran (FL) 0.0171 American (AA) 0.0174 Frontier (F9) 0.0179 *Data Source: 2011 DOT Form 41 and 298C domestic and international travel combined **2012 data not yet available
We still believe hedging protects our company but spend much less doing it than we used to. $150 Cash paid for call option premiums (in millions) $41 $67 $56 $40 $20 $30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Forecast
We have a good relationship with our employees $ 325M 33 $ 535M Incentive pay earned by employees about one month s pay for most employees number of labor agreements reached since 9/11 Amount of voluntary contributions employee DB plans even though none was required.
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