1 CFTe, MSTA, AMT Sydney North Shore Information evening 14 August 2013
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3 Disclaimer The information presented is general and not prepared for your specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances. Not all investments will be appropriate for all attendees. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. There is a risk of loss in trading and investing as well as potential for profit. Every effort has been made to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed. All charts are updated to 9-14 August 2013
4 Agenda *The stars from the top 20 *Are the Market Tragedies over? *Gold and Copper running together?
5 Top 20 Stars CSL Telstra
6 More than 90 years experience in the development and manufacture of vaccines and plasma protein biotherapies. With major facilities in Australia, Germany, Switzerland and the US, CSL has over 10,000 employees working in 27 countries.
Mountaineering 100 plus? 7 Up over 2.5 times Or 160% Up 11 times Up 23 times
Steeper & Steeper but 8? 1 st objective 57 47
Reconnecting with the Track 9 61.80 58
10 A provider of telecommunications and information products and services through its Australian and offshore operations. Engaged in the provision of telephone lines: national local and long distance; and international telephone calls, mobile telecommunications, data, internet and on-line, wholesale, telephone directories and pay TV.
Down and Across 11 6.55 5.75 5.40 4.40 3.70 Up 100%
A Nice Leap 12 4.10 3.70
Run, pause, run 13 5.40-50 4.90-5.0 4.60
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16 The Markets
The World on Track?? 17 24 Countries Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States
And Piigs might 18 Portugal Ireland Greece Italy Spain
Looking East 1 August 2013 19
20
A 20 th Century Fit Does History Repeat? 21
1970 s parameters + 90 s input 22 Similar momentum
A new Upward Draft? 23? 14600 13500
A Chameleon? 24 Megaphones (horns)
Stretch after Stretch 25 objective achieved 15700 15330 15100 14500
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In the Outer Zone 27 Data as at July 2013
But a mixture of times 28 Data as at July 2013
One step at a time 29
One step at a time 30 3200 2650 Key juncture
More Time to Play 31 2650 2300 2050 1850
Off the Bottom? 32 2450? 2350 2250 2140 2030 1940 1850
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Not Exactly but 07 7000 5000 3000 34 1000 68-69 50
Moving to the 90s 35 momentum similarities
After a 2009 style rise 36 5250 4890 4700
Pushing the speed barrier 37 5300 5120 4950-80 4 months
38 RESOURCES QUEEN
Mining s Big Change 1 August 2013 39?
Changes Afoot? 40 1 August 2013??
What a Ride! 41 200 Resources Index +250% 200 Industrials Index +39%
A Different Picture 42 200 Resources Index 200 Industrials Index +54% +34%
Up, Up and Away But 43 200 Industrials Index +25% +5% 200 Resources Index
And So Far this Year 44 200 Industrials Index +14% 14 Feb 200 Resources Index -7%
45 A leading global resources company. Among the world s largest producers of major commodities, including aluminium, copper, energy coal, iron ore, manganese, metallurgical coal, nickel, silver and uranium along with substantial interests in oil and gas.
46 The changing of the Guard The best years are ahead A 75% increase in demand from china in the next 15 years
In the Zone 47
Not Quite but 48 50.00 Similar experience
Third Fan = PLUS 49 Barrier 37.00 Risk Line 30.00
Quite a Jump 50? 39.00 $36.14-36.60 36.15 34.60 34.20
51 One of the world's largest international mining groups, involved in every stage of metal and mineral production. Comprising five principal product groups: Aluminium, Copper, Diamonds & Minerals, Energy and Iron Ore Plus two support groups: Technology & Innovation and Exploration.
In the Comfort Zone 52 88.85 48.35
Lines of Focus 53 80 75 68 60 49 Similar style
In the Stretch 54 71 66 62 50
55
1975 or 1980?? 56??
Into the Never Never Land?? 57 1975 Again??
Even 1980 s leftovers?? 58 1000
Top Down 59 1200-55
Attempting a Rebalance? 60 Main resistance zone?? 1530-60 1420 1345 1250
61 COPPER
Testing its comfort zone? 62 Initial target risk zone 32 years
Into the Breach Squeezing & Expanding? 63 345
Down and Across? 64? 338 315-20
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A Disconnection? 66 GOLD COPPER?
More power to Copper 67? GOLD outperformance COPPER outperformance?
68 OIL that is
An Impressive History 69 30 years
Some Different Similarities or the Same? but 145 113 70 75 65
At the START but 71 125 117 95-100
72 The largest producer of oil and gas in Australia and the largest independently dedicated oil and gas company. Producing around 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent each day from an extensive portfolio of facilities including six liquefied natural gas trains, five offshore platforms (one under construction) and four oil floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels
Top or Bottom? 73 51. 40 33 29
Almost a reflection 74 52 Midway barrier 43 41 38 34 26
Three again 75 Pivotal stage in base 3 tests of the lows
Second Objective? 76 2 nd objective 41.50 39.50 1 st objective 37.10 36.40 34.00 33.00
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2013 Performance 78 NAB NAB+23.59% WBC+19.91% ANZ+18.85% CBA+18.89% AN Z CBA WB C
79 A financial services organisation with over 12,000,000 customers and 50,000 people, operating more than 1,750 stores and Service Centres globally. With businesses in New Zealand, Asia, the United Kingdom and the United States
On to tackle the Barriers? Consolidation Barrier zone 80
A Return to the Upper zone? 81 41.00 37.00 27.50
A recognition pause? 82 Resistance zone 34.40 32.40 26-27 1 st stage base Sideways phase
Under Resistance? 83 Resistance zone 34.40 32.40 26-27 1 st stage base Sideways phase
Preparing to launch? 84 33 31.75 29-30
85 Thank you for attention Charts sourced from Proview, ABS + The Chart Store
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