Kent Visitor Economy Barometer 2016
In 2016 Kent s Tourism Businesses saw 2
Summary 2016 saw a strong performance for attractions, although fluctuations did occur from month to month. Accommodation providers saw a weaker performance compared to the previous year, although smaller accommodation providers experienced an increase in occupancy levels compared to 2015. During the first quarter of 2016, Kent had a positive start to the year, indicating a strong year ahead, with a significant increase in visitor footfall recorded in March (up by 21.1%), due to an early Easter and amplified marketing efforts. Serviced and self-catering accommodation experienced a decrease in January, although this recording may have been skewed due to an unusual spike in occupancy rates in 2015 during the same period. However, March revealed an increase in occupancy levels for both serviced and self-catering accommodation. The start of the second quarter showed a decrease in visitor footfall, explained by an early Easter compared to the previous year. Some attractions also reported that they had received fewer European visitors, which may have been as a result of a dent in confidence due to the EU referendum. However, these figures remained higher than last year and on a par with national level figures. The performance gradually improved over the next two months, although factors such as the possible after effect of the Paris and Brussels incidents were raised by attractions as having potentially influenced performance. The summer months saw a significant increase in visitor numbers to attractions, compared to 2015, surpassing national averages. July marked the biggest increase in footfall since Easter, providing some compensation for the previous challenging few months. Accommodation providers fared less well in July, compared to the same month last year, although the following two months saw a gradual increase in occupancy levels. This difference between attractions and accommodation providers could be an indication of an increase in day visits. The autumn and winter months reported a strong increase in numbers for Kent s visitor attractions, with a significant rise in visitor footfall reported in December (up by 19.5%). This trend was also in line with the increase in holiday visits reported nationally in the fourth quarter, as a result of the decreased value of the pound. For accommodation providers, the last quarter showed an increase in occupancy levels for serviced providers, although this performance was not mirrored by self-catering providers. 3
Overall, Kent s visitor attractions have consistently fared better than in 2015, confirming the ongoing resilience of Kent s tourism businesses following the challenges that faced the industry this year, including the EU referendum and terror incidents. The challenge in 2017 will be to maintain this positive momentum and continue to promote Kent as an attractive, safe and welcoming destination for both overseas and domestic markets. Tourism Trends 2016 Headline trends in inbound tourism to the UK The value of spending increased by 2% to 22.5 billion. Average spend per visit was 599 in 2016, down from the peak of 650 per visit in 2013 and reflecting a lower spend per visit, due to shorter average length of stay The number of visitor nights spent in the UK increased by 2% in 2016 to 277 million, with the average number of nights per visit declining at 7.4 The top ten inbound markets for the UK in terms of number of visits during 2016 accounted for almost two in three visits (64%). This proportion has been trending down over time: in 2005, the top ten accounted for 69% of all visits. The top ten markets have been the same every year since 2005; the only change in 2015 was the USA overtaking Germany to claim second place. Only two long-haul markets, the USA and Australia, appear in the top ten Looking at spending by inbound visitors, the top ten markets contributed 55% of all spending, with the USA worth over 1.8 billion more than the next most valuable market in 2016, Germany. Germany overtook France this year to claim second place. After briefly entering the top ten for value in 2015, China and Saudi Arabia didn t retain that place in 2016 In 2016 nearly two-in-five inbound visits to the UK were for a holiday (37%), whilst a quarter (24%) were for business. Looking at the share of visitor nights by journey purpose, trips to visit friends or relatives (VFR) account for the largest share (40%), as these trips involve a longer than average length of stay By contrast VFR trips account for a lower share of inbound visitor spend (22%) than they do of visits (31%), while holiday and business spending (39% and 24% respectively) are in line with their respective share of visits (37% and 24%) Source: VisitBritain 2016 snapshot- accessed here. 4
Inbound volume In the fourth quarter of 2016, arrivals were up 9% compared to the same period in 2015, the strongest Q4 on record Due to positive growth in all quarters except Q2, 2016 visits are up 4% on 2015 to a record breaking 37.6 million visits Inbound value Q4 2016 spending increased 2% in nominal terms, and 2016 ended up 2% as a whole. Since the EU referendum the value of GBP has fallen significantly meaning that the UK is now much more affordable for many visitors Source: International Passenger Survey *2017 figures are provisional and will be revised with the next quarterly and annual releases; **Adjusted for inflation based on March 2017 price level Journey purpose trends Holiday visits saw a steady increase over the last few years, although growth dropped off throughout Q2 and Q3 of 2016. However visits grew 13% during Q4 of 2016, meaning that holiday visits for 2016 were on par with 2015. Whilst visits were on par, holiday spending grew 2% in 2016, just short of 2014 s record Visits to friends and family (VFR) have seen consistently strong growth in the last 4 quarters, with Q4 visits up 17%. Overall, 2016 is up 11% and sets a new annual record at 11.6 million visits. Spend was also up in 2016, by 5%, setting a new record at 5.1 billion 5
Business visits saw growth each quarter throughout 2016, and were up 4% overall, setting a new 12 month record. Spend decreased in the first half of 2016, although recovered in the second half, to result in spend up 1% in 2016 to a record 5.5 billion Miscellaneous visits combine a wide range of journey purposes and are more likely to fluctuate more. At the end of 2016, visits for this purpose were up 2%, whilst spend was down 4% - likely due to a decrease in high spending visitors when comparing to 2015 s Rugby World Cup Source: International Passenger Survey Transport Mode Travel via air continues to increase, with growth across all quarters of 2016, and air visits up 11% in Q4. 2016 visits. The most recent 12 month period set a new record at 27.8 million visits using this method. Spending by those travelling by air was also up 4% for 2016 setting a new record Visits to the UK via the tunnel fell 1% in 2016, following decreases across all quarters except Q1. This decline is linked to a decline in visits from France in 2016. Spending also fell, by a larger proportion, to 1.5 billion, down 12% on 2015 Visits to the UK departing via the sea also fell 1% in 2016, driven by decreases in the first half of 2016. Spending was also down 6%, with spending either flat or declining throughout the year 6
Top markets for visits 2016 The top 10 markets have remained in the same positions as in 2015, when the USA overtook Germany to second place Despite a decline in visits in 2016, France still remains the UK s top inbound market Romania has seen rapid growth in recent years, rising from 16th place in 2015 and is currently one of the UK s fastest growing inbound markets Canada has also seen strong growth, rising two places in 2016, although visits are still short of the 2006 record Source: VisitBritain Inbound Tourism Trends Quarterly full year 2016- accessed here Domestic tourism statistics 2016 Publication of VisitBritain s 2016 GB Tourism Survey has been delayed due to the implementation of a new data processing programme, which has required more time than originally anticipated. Work on data processing for the expenditure estimate is still underway. Volume estimates for domestic overnight tourism (numbers of trips and nights) have now been published for the period January December 2016. Please refer to the VisitBritain report release timetable, which will be updated once timings are confirmed. https://www.visitbritain. org/release-timetable Source: VisitBritain GB Tourism Survey (Domestic overnight tourism): Latest results- accessed here 7
The Business Barometer is based on information gathered directly from over 300 businesses in Kent. Through timely monthly feedback, reasons for uplift or downturn in the market place can be identified to enable businesses to benchmark with others and respond to trends identified. Kent Monthly Performance 2016 January Kent attractions experienced an increase in visitor numbers compared to the same month last year. This was strengthened by business tourism, with conference numbers increasing significantly compared to January 2015. Both serviced and self-catering accommodation fared negatively, but it is important to note January 2015 saw a significant spike in occupancy compared to the previous year (up 28%) hence the decrease in occupancy. February Attractions reported a decrease in visitor numbers compared to February 2015. Self-catering accommodation fared positively (up 16.9%), compared to the same month last year. Serviced accommodation saw a slight decrease in occupancy. March March brought a significant increase in visitor numbers (up 21.1%) compared to the same month last year, mostly due to an early Easter and amplified marketing efforts. Both self-catering and serviced accommodation also fared positively in March (up 21.2% and up 1.6% respectively). April Attractions reported a decrease in visitor numbers compared to the same month last year, with contributing factors including poor weather and an early Easter. Although figures remain up year to date, and on par with national level figures. Self-catering accommodation fared positively, compared to the same month last year, while serviced accommodation saw a slight decrease in occupancy. May Attractions saw a decrease in visitor numbers, however findings reflected the national picture, which shows a decrease in visitor numbers as well as visitor spend, compared to May 2015. However, business tourism saw an increase compared to May 2015 (up 2.5%). Self-catering accommodation fared less well, while serviced accommodation also saw a decrease in occupancy. June Attractions saw a decrease of 3.3%, compared to June 2015. The main factors influencing the first second quarter included the build up to the EU referendum, mixed media coverage and poor weather conditions. Self-catering accommodation fared positively in June (up 3.3%) compared to June 2015, while serviced accommodation experienced a slight decrease in occupancy. July During July 2016, Kent attractions saw a significant increase in visitor numbers compared to the same month last year. July also marked the biggest increase in footfall since Easter, overcoming the challenging past few months. Self-catering accommodation fared less well compared to the same month last year, while serviced accommodation saw an increase in occupancy, of 0.2%. This difference 8
between attractions and accommodation providers could also be due to an increase in day visits. August Kent attractions continued to experience a significant increase in visitor numbers compared to the same month last year, surpassing national averages. Self-catering accommodation was on par in comparison with August 2015. Serviced accommodation continued to experience an increase in occupancy, of 1.8%. September Kent saw an increase in visitor numbers at the start of the third quarter (18.8% in July). This increase continued into the next two months, with attractions experiencing an increase of 23.3% in August and 10% in September. The main factors that contributed to this performance included good weather, a reported increase in the number of staycations, alongside some attractions now being free to enter. Self-catering accommodation fared positively in September (up 15.9%) compared to September 2015, while serviced accommodation also experienced an increase in occupancy up 1.7%. October During October 2016, Kent attractions continued to experience a significant increase in visitor numbers of 13.8% compared to the same month last year. Serviced accommodation providers experienced a small increase in occupancy as well, being 1% up, unlike self-catering accommodation businesses, which saw a slight decrease in occupancy compared to October 2015. In addition, business tourism saw an increase of 1.8%. November During November 2016, Kent attractions have performed on par with the same month last year, being 0.3% down. However, the year to date figure is significantly positive, being 7.6% up. Serviced accommodation providers experienced an increase in occupancy of 4.3%, while self-catering accommodation businesses saw a decrease in occupancy compared to November 2015. There was a mix of factors, from limited opening times to a mild November weather. December Kent experienced an increase in visitor numbers at the start of the fourth quarter (13.8% in October), followed by a slight decrease in visitor numbers during November. However, December saw a significant increase in visitor numbers (19.5%), with factors contributing to this including the impact of Christmas events mild weather conditions. Serviced accommodation fared positively in December (up 2.6%) compared to December 2015, while selfcatering accommodation experienced a decrease in occupancy. 9
Kent Visitor Attractions The monthly rise and fall of visitor numbers (% change 2016/2015) In 2016, attractions were up by 0.9% compared to 2015. Overall, 2016 witnessed some fluctuation in visitor footfall for Kent s tourism businesses, although March, October and December saw a healthy increase in visitor footfall compared to the same period in 2015. Visitor footfall (%) change 2016/2015 25.0 20.0 21.5 15.0 10.0 6.8 10.3 13.9 5.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 0.5-5.0-10.0-5.1-8.1-4.3-2.2-15.0-12.5 The range of visitor attraction performance in 2016 compared to 2015 Range of visitor attractions' performance 2016/2015 39% 61% Up Down In 2016, the majority of Kent attractions enjoyed an improved performance compared to 2015, with 61% up on the previous year, higher than national level figures. 39% of attractions experienced a reduction in visitor footfall. These resulted in an average of 12.9% increase for attractions. 10
Visitor numbers by cost Free* Charging Down 13.8% Up 2.9% Visitor numbers by attraction location Rural Coastal Urban Up 6.4% Down 2.5% Down 5.3% Visitor numbers by attraction size 20,000 or less 20,001 50,000 Between 50,001 Over 200,000 and 200,000 Up 1.4% Up 10.6% Up 6.8% Down 5.6% Visitor numbers by attraction type Museums / Art Gallery Historic Building / Heritage Attraction Gardens Zoo / Wildlife Attraction Visitor / Heritage Centres Other Down 9.1% Up 5.4% Up 16.4% Up 2.8% Down 11.5% Down 2.3% *Please note: a small sample size for free attractions may have an effect on final figures. National picture As the results below show, visitor attraction performance at a national level was strong in comparison to 2015, with over half (54%) of all attractions stating performance to have been up on last year and a further 27% claiming performance to have remained the same. Range of visitor attraction performance 2016/2015 19% 27% 54% Up Same Down Source: VisitEngland Tourism Business Monitor 2017 accessed here. 11
72.2 6 Serviced Accommodation In 2016, serviced accommodation providers saw an average occupancy of 75.2%, compared to the 75.5% witnessed in 2015. Performance was on par, with a marginal 0.4% decrease in 2016. Seviced accommodation occupancy rates 2016/2015 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Yearly Average 2016 2015 % change 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 55.9% 69.5% 70% 74.8% 78.3% 80.2% 86.3% 87% 83.4% 77% 72.2% 67.8% 2015 58.1% 71.5% 68.9% 76.3% 82.1% 83.3% 86.1% 85.5% 82% 76.2% 69.7% 66.1% %change -3.8-2.8 1.6-2.0-4.6-3.7 0.2 1.8 1.7 1 3.6 2.6 Larger hotels and chain occupancy (Source: STR Global) Across Kent s larger hotels and chains, data by STR Global shows that occupancy varied across the months in comparison to 2015, with occupancy averaging at 75.2% in 2016, 0.5% down on 2015. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 56.2% 69.7% 70.2% 74.9% 78.4% 80.3% 86.1% 87% 83.2% 76.7% 72.2% 67.9% 2015 58.1% 71.7% 70.3% 76.7% 82.5% 83.2% 86.3% 85.4% 82.1% 76.8% 69.5% 66.3% %change -3.2-2.8-0.2-2.4-5.0-3.5-0.2 1.9 1.3-0.2 4 2.4 12
Smaller and independent guest houses and B&Bs occupancy Looking at Kent s smaller and independent guest houses and B&Bs only, we saw an average occupancy of 72.8% throughout 2016, up 4.1% from the 69.9% seen in 2015. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 50.6% 63.8% 63.5% 72.5% 71.9% 62% 89.9% 88.7% 87.9% 83.7% 72.3% 66.5% 2015 57.5% 65.2% 47.8% 67.7% 74.7% 77.6% 84.4% 86.3% 80.3% 73.1% 62.5% 61.9% %change -12-2.1 32.8 7.1-3.7-20.1 6.5 2.8 9.4 14.5 15.7 7.4 National picture At a national level, an average serviced accommodation occupancy of 71% was seen, 1.7% higher than in 2015 across England as a whole. Although Kent s serviced accommodation providers did experience a small decrease in occupancy compared to the previous year, they have enjoyed a higher occupancy average compared to national level figures (75.2% in Kent compared to 71% nationally). Source: VisitEngland Occupancy Survey December 2016 accessed here. 13
Self-Catering Accommodation Self-catering accommodation providers experienced a slight decrease in occupancy (1.1%), compared to the previous year, with 62.7% in 2016 and 63.4% in 2015. Self-catering accommodation occupancy rates 2016/2015 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 2015 % change 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 57.5% 57.4% 53.1% 58.8% 58.7% 65.9% 77.5% 83.1% 77.5% 66.6% 47.6% 48.6% 2015 61.2% 49.1% 43.8% 76.3% 62.4% 63.8% 79.8% 83.2% 66.9% 67.2% 51% 55.8% %change -6.0 16.9 21.2-22.9-5.9 3.3-2.9-0.1 15.9-0.9-6.7-12.9 Visitor Information Centres Due to the nature of VICs they are not directly comparable with each other, only with their own performance over time. Total footfall across 2016 was 1.4% down on 2015. Mixed results have been seen across the board, with some VICs reporting a rise in visits due to increases in group visits and the impact of activity at nearby attractions, attracting additional visitors to the area. 14
Others who were slightly down on 2015 expressed concern over the current UK economic climate, in addition to competition from other parts of the UK and general security fears. Visitor Information Centres Performance 2016/2015 120000 VIC performance 2016/2015 10.0 100000 5.0 80000 0.0 60000 40000-5.0-10.0 2015 2016 % change 20000-15.0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 42,390 51,145 57,257 71,793 76,904 77,954 92,758 106,758 77,706 66,349 49,602 59,174 2015 41,391 53,184 54,762 74,471 91,064 77,610 98,554 100,222 74,402 68,929 47,427 59,924 %change 2.4-3.8 4.6-3.6-15.5 0.4-5.9 6.5 4.4-3.7 4.6-1.3 15
Conference and Events Providers Conferences and business events were 15.1% up on the previous year, and other events were up 7.6% compared to 2015. 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Conference and event venues performance 2016/15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0 2016 2015 % change On average, 52% of the conferences taking place across Kent in 2016 were for a full day, followed by half a day conferences with 34%, 2 days conferences (8%) and 3 days or more (6%). 8% 6% 34% 52% Half a day 1 day 2 days 3 days or more 16
In 2016, on average 90% of delegates were Kent residents, 6% came from London, 3% came from other UK locations and 2% were from overseas. This amplifies the relatively small number of inbound conferences. 6% 3% 2% 90% Kent London the rest of the UK Overseas Cross Channel Carriers Crossings by type Cross channel carriers continue to experience a decrease in the number of crossings in 2016, compared to 2015. The first quarter of 2016 saw an increase in the number of passengers and car crossings, compared to the previous year. This was followed by a gradual decline during the remainder of the year, with the exception of car crossings in quarter three and four, which saw a slight increase. However, when looking at national level figures for 2016, decreases in visits via sea and the Channel Tunnel were reported, which may have been due to the reported decline in visitors from France in 2016. Carriers* 2015 2016 % change 16/15 Passengers 15,147,200 14,585,769-3.7% Cars 3,725,066 3,699,666-0.7% Coaches 106,696 97,212-8.9% *Figures based on Port of Dover and Eurotunnel data. 17
Cruise Ships The Port of Dover remains the second busiest cruise port in the UK and welcomed around 200,000 passengers in 2016. Cruise calls fell from 116 in 2015 to 98 in 2016 with similar levels expected in 2017; early bookings for 2018 and 2019 are looking more positive with 113 and 119 ships projected. The growing cruise market and focus of the cruise team at the Port of Dover has contributed to this growth in numbers. There is also an increased interest in excursions outside of London due to the recent terrorist incidents in UK cities. Marketing update Consumer website www.visitkent.co.uk The Visit Kent consumer website is often the first point of call for many visitors to Kent gathering information for their day trips or overnight stays. The website continues to enjoy improved performance year on year, proving to be an effective tool for the consumer journey. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 98,529 113,697 156,359 153,098 178,086 144,235 227,834 289,820 144,573 127,195 135,486 128,348 2015 77,123 80,604 112,322 141,983 153,491 122,238 156,803 197,435 113,203 122,168 103,812 101,492 % change 28% 41% 39% 8% 16% 18% 45% 47% 28% 4% 31% 26% Social Media Facebook Facebook likes have almost doubled from 6333 to 11,800 by the end of 2016. Twitter Visit Kent s Twitter followers increased by 30% in 2016 to 32,496. Instagram - Following the launch of Instagram in April 2015, the number of followers have quadrupled in just one year to 8,449. PR Our PR work and resulting coverage reached close to 49million people (worth in excess of 1million), and we continued to receive excellent feedback from the national and international press on the quality of service. We sent out 36 press releases in 2016, and hosted 32 press visits 18
to Kent. We continue to be a benchmark by which VisitEngland measures other DMOs in terms of proactive and innovative PR work. Travel Trade Visit Kent works with over 60 key domestic and international tour operators and wholesalers throughout the year. During 2016, Visit Kent attended 12 key exhibitions covering international exhibitions to 1:1 speed networking workshops. Throughout this period, we have seen over 14 new UK-based day trips and 18 overnight tours to Kent for 2017. The county continues to remain a popular destination for European groups, with over 20 additional tours running from overseas operators from our target markets. B2B Website www.visitkentbusiness.co.uk The B2B website has shown significant growth in visitors towards the end of the year. We have actively been signposting useful content to businesses in our new monthly tourism newsletters and the release of the 2015 Economic Impact Reports has also driven traffic to the site. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 2,683 2,751 2,776 2,228 2,288 2,891 2,576 2,968 4,281 5,984 4,255 3,325 2015 1,509 1,207 1,184 1,012 1,215 1,485 1,197 1,137 867 1,089 1,212 839 % change 78% 128% 134% 120% 88% 95% 115% 161% 394% 449% 251% 296% 19
For past barometer reports, please visit: www.visitkentbusiness.co.uk Feedback to us For comments or more information about the Business Barometer, or to participate in the 2017 surveys and benefit from PR opportunities, please contact Ruby Berkeley-Cornner at ruby.berkeley-cornner@visitkent.co.uk. To take part in the Visit Kent online occupancy survey for accommodation providers and obtain free and fast benchmarking data register at http://kent.ribos.co.uk/register And finally thank you! We would like to thank all participants in the Visit Kent Business Barometer, you know who you are! With your help we can provide key tourism intelligence to businesses in Kent, and have supporting data in lobbying for Kent. We are working together to make Kent more competitive. Acknowledgements If you wish to use any information contained within this Barometer, please can you acknowledge the source as 2016. Thank you. Kent end of year business barometer report produced by the Go to Places Research team, June 2017 20