Third Quarter Marketing Report B R A N SON/LAKES A R EA C VB N OVEMBER, 2013
Economic Outlook +5.1% from July 2011
Consumer Confidence is Up 7% This Year Increasing from 66.7 in Dec to 71.2 Today +6.7% In 2013 The Conference Board s Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 71.2, up from Dec but down from Aug of 2013. Source: The Conference Board An index of 90 is considered necessary for sustainability and 100 is required for growth.
Consumer Confidence Had Edged Higher, but Has Fallen in Recent Months 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 71.2
U.S. Unemployment Rate Stands at 7.2%, Down from 7.8% in December 2012 7.2% September 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The U.S. Unemployment Rate is the Lowest It Has Been Since December 08 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 7.2% 6.0%
U.S. Gasoline Prices Averaged $3.24 in October 2013, Down 0.6% on the Year. -0.6% In 2013 EIA reports that gasoline prices are down 0.6% on the year, and down 12.4% from Oct 2012. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Gasoline Prices are Down 12.4% from Oct 2012 $3.90 $3.80 $3.70 $3.60 $3.50 $3.40 $3.30 $3.20 $3.10 $3.00 $3.84 $3.61 $3.24 Lowest monthly price since Dec 2011. Jul '11 Aug '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Nov '11 Dec '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Apr '12 May '12 June '12 July '12 Aug '12 Sep '12 Oct '12 Nov '12 Dec '12 Jan '13 Feb '13 Mar '13 Apr '13 May '13 June '13 July '13 Aug '13 Sept '13 Oct '13 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
The DJIA Closed at 15,545.75 in October, up 2.8% on the month and 18.6% on the year +18.6% In 2013 The DJIA hit 15,545.75 at the end of October, its highest close of the year. Source: Dow Jones Industrial Average
The DJIA is Now at its Highest Point on Record 16,000 15,545.75 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 12,045.68 10,000 Nov '11 Dec '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Apr '12 May '12 Jun '12 Jul '12 Aug '12 Sep '12 Oct '12 Nov '12 Dec '12 Jan '13 Feb '13 Mar '13 Apr '13 MayJune July Aug Sept Oct '13 '13 '13 '13 '13 '13 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. Travel Performance +5.1% from July 2011
Leisure Travel Volume is Expected to Increase by 1.4% in 2013 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 4.1% 6.1% -1.3% 3.8% 2.9% 0.6% 1.2% -0.4% -2.8% 3.5% U.S. leisure travel growth has averaged +1.1% per year over the past decade. 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 1.4% Source: U.S. Travel Association
Business Travel Volume is Expected to Increase by 1.2% in 2013 4% 2% 2.2% 2.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0% -2% -4% -2.9% -1.9% -0.6% -0.3% -2.8% -6% -8% -10% -9.7% -6.7% -5.1% U.S. business travel has averaged a 1.0% each year over the past decade. -12% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f Source: U.S. Travel Association
Smith Travel Room Demand is Up 2.4% Over the Past 12 Months +2.4% Past 12 Months STR reports that U.S. hotel/motel room demand is up 2.4% over last year with revenues increasing 6.6% Source: Smith Travel Research
U.S. Hotel Room Demand Has Posted Increases In Each of the Past 46 Months 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0.9% Source: Smith Travel Research, June 2013
U.S. Room Demand is Strongest at the Higher Price Points 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% YTD Variance in Room Demand by Price Scale 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Luxury Upscale Midprice Economy Budget Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2013
U.S. Room Demand is Also Strongest in the Mid Atlantic & West South Central 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% YTD Variance in Room Demand by Census Region 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2013
Travel Industry Update +5.1% from July 2011
Travel Industry Overview Leisure Travel continues to outperform business/meetingsrelated travel and group travel. Growth in consumer demand, creation of products that resonate with consumers and travel agents, and effective marketing contribute to these gains. Travel Agents. Many American Society of Travel Agents agency members reported that their first half 2013 performance was better than the same first half in 2012. In a recent survey, nearly one-fourth of all ASTA agencies said they saw a revenue increase of 10 percent or more. Overall, more than half (52%) of leisure agencies reported an increase in revenues, especially from travel insurance, cruises, tours or group travel and FIT. ASTA agencies project 2013 profits to be on par with 2012, while stronger profits are projected in 2014. Source: U.S. Travel.org 19
Travel Industry Overview Young People Traveling More. The World Youth Student and Educational Confederation's New Horizon's III report shows that young people are traveling more, staying for longer periods of time and spending more money. Young travelers now represent 20% of international tourism and spent $217 billion of the $1.088 trillion spent worldwide on travel in 2012. Government Shutdown caused optimism among industry leaders and travel companies to wane. "Previous experience tells us that a shutdown unnecessarily disrupts economic activity in communities large and small that depend upon travel spending for employment and tax revenue," explained Roger Dow, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association. Source: U.S. Travel.org 20
Travel Industry Overview Lack of Vacation Time. According to a recent report entitled "No-Vacation Nation Revisited," prepared by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, the U.S. is the only advanced economy (out of 21 nations) that does not require employers to provide paid vacation time. Almost one in four Americans do not receive any paid vacation or paid holidays. Further, the sum of the average paid vacation and paid holidays provided to workers in the private sector (16 in total) would not meet even the minimum required by law in 19 other rich countries. The gap between paid time off in the U.S. and the rest of the world is even larger when legal holidays are included. U.S. law does not guarantee any paid holidays, but most rich countries provide between five and 13 per year, in addition to paid vacation days. Source: U.S. Travel.org 21
Travel Industry Overview U.S. Hotel/Motel Performance Positive results during August, according to STR: supply (+0.7%) demand (+3.1%) occupancy (+2.3%) average daily rate (ADR) (+4.5%) revenue per available room (RevPAR) (+6.9%) In 2014, STR predicts: Occupancy to grow 1.3% ADR to rise 4.6% RevPAR to grow 6% Supply growth will increase in 2014 to 1.1% but remains below the long-term average of 1.7% Source: U.S. Travel.org 22
Branson 2013 YTD Performance +5.1% from July 2011
Branson Visitation YTD thru Third Quarter 2013 5,700 5,600 5,500-3.0% +2.4% 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000-6.2% -2.1% +3.5% 4,900 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: City of Branson
History of Branson Visitation 1991-2012 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
City of Branson Sales Tax YTD thru Third Quarter 2013 $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 $6,500 $6,000 $5,500 $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000-1.9% +0.8% -0.9% +2.1% +3.9% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: City of Branson
City of Branson Tourism Tax YTD thru Third Quarter 2013 $9,000 $8,000-8.4% +10.1% -7.7% -4.8% +6.1% $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: City of Branson
TCED Tourism Tax YTD thru Third Quarter 2013 $6,000 $5,500-0.7% +4.6% -2.2% -1.2% +6.5% $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: TCED
Room Demand Comparison YTD thru Third Quarter 2013 Variance in Room Demand 6% 4% 2% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.0% 3.3% 4.4% 0% -2% -4% -3.0% -6% -5.2% Source: Smith Travel Research
Branson 3rd Quarter 2013 What else do we know about 2013?
YTD Oct 2013 vs. YTD Oct 2012 2013 2012 Spending per Party $974 $962 First-Time Visitors 25.5% 26.1% Families 37.7% 39.0% Average Adult Age 57.5 years 56.9 years Length of Stay 3.9 nights 3.9 nights Saw Shows 80.3% 77.9% Number of Shows Seen 3.2 3.2 Source: BCVB Visitor Profile Research
YTD October 2013 Visitation by Market % of Visitors Market vs. 2012 16.0% Core Markets (0-100 mi.) +3.3% 25.9% Primary Markets (101-300 mi.) -11.2% 26.2% Outer Markets (301-650 mi.) +3.3% 31.9% National Markets (650+ mi.) +17.7% TOTAL VISITATION +3.5%
Web Inquiries YTD Third Quarter 2013 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Visits 1,563,042 1,451,574 1,358,589 1,395,080 1,174,228 674,213 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Google Analytics
YTD 2013 Public Relations: Ad Equivalency Values On track to approach an annual ad equivalency of $15MM (YTD thru OCT is $12MM) vs. a record $20.5MM in 2012, which was primarily due to the positive coverage ( Branson is Open for Business ) following the 2012 Leap Day tornado and the incredible outpouring worldwide at the loss of our beloved Andy Williams.
YTD 2013 Public Relations: Big Hits Feature film Awful Nice, shot in Branson in 2011/2012, has been picked up for nationwide distribution in 2014 The reality show filmed at Branson Pawn is now named Pawns in the Game and will air on Discovery Channel, premiering in 2014, for two seasons Produced a very successful Branson LIVE in Dallas with coverage by Dallas Morning News editor in AUG 3rd annual national 4-H Film Fest held in AUG US Family Guide Bloggers Fam was held SEPT 12-15
2014: Looking Ahead Strategic Plan: One-on-one interviews, focus groups and committee meetings with Branson stakeholders Completion in December 2013 2014 Marketing plan will be revised to reflect findings and direction Creative: New Ad Agency Bailey Lauerman Refreshed creative for 2014 Brand Re-positioning for 2015 launch
2014: Looking Ahead Media: Re-focus on Core and Primary markets Eliminate Chicago as a spot market Continue National Cable Deliver right message to the right person at the right time Additional research: Need-State Segmentation - TBD Website Usability Study Ad Testing Revised Ad Effectiveness and Visitor Profile
www.h2rmarketresearch.com.