The Changing Demography of Scotland Kirsty MacLachlan National Records of Scotland
People (millions) Scotland s population, 1855 to 2009 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 Year
Persons (thousands) Births and deaths in Scotland, 1951 to 2009 120 100 Births Deaths 80 60 40 20 0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 Year 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Changes to the population Ageing Migration
Persons ('000s) Ageing over the past 10 years, 1999-2009 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000-10% +13% -8% +6% +12% 1999 2009 600,000 400,000 +14% 200,000 0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 & Over Age
Persons ('000s) Projected ageing over the next 25 years, 2008-2033 2008 2033 1,200,000 1,000,000-2% -7% -5% -7% +33% 800,000 +84% 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75 & Over Age
Persons (thousands) Variant population projections 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 High mig High fertility High LE Principal Low LE Low fertility Low mig Zero mig 4,800 4,600 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Year
Centenarians (per 100,000) Very elderly population rising quickly 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year
Age Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, 1983-2033 90 85 80 Males Females Projected 75 70 65 60 55 50 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Year
Percentage of population Age structure in 2009 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Dumfries & Galloway East Lothian SCOTLAND Shetland Islands Area City of Edinburgh West Lothian Glasgow City Children Working Age Pensionable Age
Percentage of population Age structure in 2009 and 2033 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Dumfries & Galloway East Lothian SCOTLAND 2033 data is based on 2008-based population projections Shetland Islands Area City of Edinburgh West Lothian Glasgow City Children Working Age Pensionable Age
Ageing effect projected dependency ratio 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Children 282 274 274 278 272 272 Pension age 318 320 318 345 345 404 Total Dependants 596 594 593 623 632 676
Dependents per 1,000 working age Dependency ratio 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Children Pensioners Total Dependants 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Year
Persons ('000s) Estimated net migration in Scotland, 1951-2009 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Year to 30 June
Persons Origin of in-migrants to Scotland 70,000 60,000 From rest of UK From overseas 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year
Average annual migrants 2007-2009 Age profile of migrants 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 & Age over In Out Net
In-migrants per 1,000 population Rate of in-migration to council areas 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Aberdeen City City of Edinburgh Stirling Glasgow City Dundee City Perth & Kinross Argyll & Bute Scottish Borders Moray East Lothian Eilean Siar Highland Aberdeenshire Shetland Islands Orkney Islands Midlothian Clackmannanshire East Renfrewshire South Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire Angus Fife West Lothian East Ayrshire Dumfries & Galloway Renfrewshire North Ayrshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Falkirk Overseas Rest of UK Within Scotland North Lanarkshire Inverclyde
In-migrants per 1,000 population Rate of in-migration to council areas 70 60 50 Overseas Rest of UK Within Scotland 40 30 20 10 0 Aberdeen City City of Edinburgh Glasgow City
Turnover per 1,000 population Turnover of migrants, 2008/09 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Glasgow City Aberdeen City Edinburgh, City of Stirling Dundee City Argyll & Bute Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Eilean Siar Moray East Lothian Highland Orkney Islands Aberdeenshire Clackmannanshire East Renfrewshire Shetland Islands Midlothian East Dunbartonshire South Ayrshire Angus Fife West Lothian Dumfries & Galloway North Ayrshire Renfrewshire East Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire South Lanarkshire Falkirk North Lanarkshire Inverclyde
Registrations (thousands) Origin of migrants to Scotland 35 30 25 20 European Union EU Accession States Other European Africa Asia and Middle East The Americas Australasia and Oceania EU Accession States 15 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Calendar Year Asia and Middle East European Union Africa The Americas Australasia and Oceania Other European
Households and Housing In 1991 there were 2.04 million households in Scotland. By 2033, the number of households is projected to increase to 2.8 million. Most of the increase is the result of an ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, rather than an increase in the overall population.
Number of Households Scotland s Households 1991 to 2033 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Year
Projected percentage change in households by Council area, 2008 to 2033 The largest projected percentage increases are in the east of Scotland. In contrast, Inverclyde has a projected decrease of 5 per cent.
Projected Household Composition for 2008 1 adult, 1 child 2 adults 795,890 2 person households All Households 2,331,250 3 + person households 694,570 1 adult, 2+ children 3+ adults 2+ adults, 1+ children 1 adult male 840,790 1 person households 1 adult female
Number of households Changes in household types 1,400,000 1,200,000 1981 2008 2033 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with children Type of household 2+ adults with children 3+ adults
Number of households Changes in age of head of household 800,000 700,000 1981 2008 2033 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+ Age of head of household
Households Variant Household Projections, 2008 to 2033 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 High Migration Principal Low Migration Zero Migration 2001 headships 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year
Percentage of dwellings in the area One-adult households, by level of deprivation, 2009 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Most deprived Least deprived
Percentage of dwellings in the area One-adult households, by urban rural classification, 2009 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Large urban areas Other urban areas Accessible small towns Remote small towns Accessible rural areas Remote rural areas
Percentage of dwellings in the area Dwelling type, by level of deprivation, 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Flats Terraced Semi-detached Detached Unknown 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Most deprived Least deprived
Percentage of dwellings in the area Dwelling type, by urban-rural classification, 2009 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Flats Terraced Semi-detached Detached Unknown 20% 10% 0% Large urban areas Other urban areas Accessible small towns Remote small towns Accessible rural areas Remote rural areas
Percentage of dwellings in the area Vacant dwellings and second homes, by level of deprivation, 2009 5% 4% % Vacant % Second homes 3% 2% 1% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Most deprived Least deprived
Percentage of dwellings in the area Vacant dwellings and second homes, by urban-rural classification, 2009 8% 7% % Vacant % Second homes 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Large urban areas Other urban areas Accessible small towns Remote small towns Accessible rural areas Remote rural areas
The percentage of dwellings which are second homes in each data zone in 2009. Some remote rural areas have the highest proportions of second homes, particularly parts of the west coast and some of the islands, Highland Perthshire and the area around the Cairngorms National Park.
The percentage of vacant dwellings in each data zone in 2009. Across Scotland as a whole, 2.9 % of dwellings are vacant. Remote rural areas have higher percentages of vacant dwellings, 4.5 % of all dwellings in these areas.
Demography statistics on GROS website: http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/index.html Comments and suggestions to Kirsty MacLachlan: kirsty.maclachlan@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk 0131 314 4242 Demography Division National Records of Scotland