COMCEC TRANSPORT and COMMUNICATIONS OUTLOOK 2018 Transport and Communications Working Group 12 th Meeting October 11th, 2018 Ankara, Turkey
OUTLINE Importance of Transport and Communications for COMCEC Transport Infrastructure, Logistics, and Trade Transport by Modes Environmental Effects of Transport Sector Previous Studies and Policy Recommendations 2
Importance of Transport and Communications One of the three principles of COMCEC Strategy is enhancing mobility (the other two are strengthening solidarity and improving governance) Transportation is explicitly declared by COMCEC as one of the three priority sectors together with agriculture and tourism One of the six cooperation areas specified by the COMCEC Strategy Closely related with the two other cooperation areas: trade and tourism Strategic objective: Improving the functioning, effectiveness and sustainability of transport and communications in the Member States 3
Transport Infrastructure, Logistics, and Trade 4
Quality of Transport Infrastructure The indexes for the quality of transport infrastructure (1=extremely underdeveloped infrastructure to 7=efficient infrastructure) Region Quality of Overall Infrastructure Quality of Roads Quality of Railroad Infrastructure Quality of Port Infrastructure Quality of Air Transport Infrastructure World Average 4,06 4,05 3,38 4,04 4,41 OIC Average 3,62 3,79 2,82 3,77 4,08 OIC-Sub Saharan Africa 2,66 3,10 2,12 3,27 3,41 OIC-MENA 4,20 4,30 2,85 4,34 4,53 OIC-Asia 3,96 3,86 3,64 3,47 4,23 OIC Maximum UAE UAE Malaysia UAE UAE OIC Minimum Mauritania Mauritania Albania Kyrgyz Rep, Yemen Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2016 2017, WEF 5
Logistics Performance Index 2016 (LPI) Regions Overall LPI Score Customs Infrastructure International Shipments Logistics Quality and Competence Tracking and Tracing Timeliness Germany 4,23 4,12 4,44 3,86 4,28 4,27 4,45 OIC Average 2,63 2,45 2,49 2,70 2,58 2,56 2,99 OIC-MENA 2,92 2,65 2,82 3,02 2,89 2,86 3,28 OIC-Asia 2,60 2,40 2,48 2,62 2,52 2,57 2,96 OIC-Sub Saharan Africa 2,39 2,30 2,19 2,45 2,33 2,28 2,75 Source: World Bank 6
LPI Score and Trade Total merchandise trade (exc, oil exports) and LPI scores in OIC countries (2016) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 7
Logistic Performance and Competitiveness 2016 LPI scores and 2016-2017 GCI scores of the OIC countries Source: World Development Indicators and World Economic Forum 8
The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index Average liner shipping connectivity scores by OIC regions (2004-2016) Source: UNCTAD Statistical Database 9
Burden of Custom Procedures Burden of Custom Procedures Average burden of custom procedure scores by OIC regions (2007-2016) 4,4 (1=extremely inefficient to 7=extremely efficient) 4,2 World 4,0 3,8 3,6 OIC-MENA OIC-Asia 3,4 3,2 OIC-Sub Saharan Africa 3,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: World Development Indicators 10
Transport by Modes 11
Road Transport 12
Length of Road Network (km) / km 2 Area of Country 2 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 5,6 EU-28 US OIC countries Yemen Uzbekistan UAE Uganda Turkmenistan Turkey Tunisia Togo Tajikistan Syria Suriname Sudan Somalia Sierra Leone Senegal Saudi Arabia Qatar Palestine Pakistan Oman Nigeria Niger Mozambique Morocco Mauritania Mali Maldives Malaysia Lybia Lebanon Kyrgyz Republic Kuwait Kazakhstan Jordan Iraq Iran Indonesia Guyana Guinea-Bisseau Guinea Gambia Gabon Egypt Djibouti Cote d'ivoire Comoros Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Brunei Benin Bangladesh Bahrain Azerbaijan Algeria Albania Afghanistan Source: COMCEC, Enhancing Road Maintenance in the OIC Member States, 2016 13
Length of Road Network (km) / USD 10 million GDP 100 243 80 60 40 20 0 EU-28 US OIC countries Yemen Uzbekistan UAE Uganda Turkmenistan Turkey Tunisia Togo Tajikistan Syria Suriname Sudan Somalia Sierra Leone Senegal Saudi Arabia Qatar Palestine Pakistan Oman Nigeria Niger Mozambique Morocco Mauritania Mali Maldives Malaysia Lybia Lebanon Kyrgyz Republic Kuwait Kazakhstan Jordan Iraq Iran Indonesia Guyana Guinea-Bisseau Guinea Gambia Gabon Egypt Djibouti Cote d'ivoire Comoros Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Brunei Benin Bangladesh Bahrain Azerbaijan Algeria Albania Afghanistan Source: COMCEC, Enhancing Road Maintenance in the OIC Member States, 2016 14
Length of Road Network (km) / 1,000 Population 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 EU-28 US OIC Average Yemen Uzbekistan Uganda UAE Turkmenistan Turkey Tunisia Togo Tajikistan Syria Suriname Sudan Somalia Sierra Leone Senegal Saudi Arabia Qatar Pakistan Oman Nigeria Niger Mozambique Morocco Mauritania Mali Maldives Malaysia Libya Lebanon Kyrgyz Rep. Kuwait Kazakhstan Jordan Iraq Iran Indonesia Guyana Guinea-Bissau Guinea Gambia Gabon Egypt Djibouti Cote d Ivoire Comoros Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Brunei Benin Bangladesh Bahrain Azerbaijan Algeria Albania Afghanistan Source: COMCEC, Enhancing Road Maintenance in the OIC Member States, 2016 15
Rail Transport 16
Djibouti Azerbaijan Tunisia Bangladesh Albania Turkey Syria Pakistan Uzbekistan Malaysia Turkmenistan Jordan Kazakhstan Iran Egypt Iraq Morocco Tajikistan Mozambique Nigeria Gabon Indonesia Burkina Faso Kyrgyz Rep. Cameroon Cote d Ivoire Sudan Algeria Uganda Mauritania Saudi Arabia Rail network density (km/100,000 km2 land area) 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 - Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 17
Rail network density (km/million population) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - Uganda Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Cote d Ivoire Burkina Faso Pakistan Cameroon Saudi Arabia Egypt Iraq Morocco Jordan Kyrgyz Rep. Tajikistan Malaysia Algeria Sudan Iran Mozambique Syria Turkey Uzbekistan Albania Mauritania Azerbaijan Tunisia Gabon Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Djibouti Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 18
Rail Passenger Traffic Rail passengers carried by OIC regions (million passenger-km) (2015) 40.000 OIC-Asia 35.000 30.000 OIC-MENA 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 OIC-Sub Saharan Africa Source: World Development Indicators 19
Rail Freight Traffic Rail freight carried by OIC regions (million ton-km) (2015) 250.000 200.000 OIC-Asia 150.000 100.000 50.000 OIC-MENA 0 OIC-Africa Source: World Development Indicators 20
Maritime Transport 21
Change in Total Fleet Change in total fleet by flag of registration (in 1000 dwt) (1998-2016) Source: UNCTAD Statistical Database 22
Container Port Traffic Container port traffic in the OIC regions (TEU: 20 foot equivalent units) (2014) Source: World Development Indicators 23
Container Port Traffic Top 10 OIC countries in terms of container-port throughput (TEU) (2014) Country TEU Malaysia 22.718.784 UAE 20.900.567 Indonesia 11.900.763 Egypt 8.810.990 Turkey 7.622.559 Saudi Arabia 6.326.861 Iran 5.163.843 Oman 3.620.364 Morocco 3.070.000 Pakistan 2.597.395 Source: Author from the World Development Indicators 24
Container trade penetration in the OIC countries Country TEU/1,000 capita Country TEU/1,000 capita UAE 2.300 Iran 66 Djibouti 882 Tunisia 55 Oman 855 Indonesia 47 Malaysia 760 Benin 39 Kuwait 340 Côte d'ivoire 35 Brunei 307 Albania 34 Bahrain 274 Yemen 33 Lebanon 266 Senegal 31 Maldives 234 Mauritania 21 Qatar 205 Cameroon 16 Saudi Arabia 205 Pakistan 14 Jordan 121 Sudan 14 Gabon 117 Mozambique 12 Turkey 100 Bangladesh 10 Egypt 98 Algeria 9 Morocco 91 Nigeria 6 Libya 73 Source: UNCTAD and World Bank 25
Air Transport 26
Air transport, passengers carried 350.000.000 Air Passenger Traffic Total air passengers carried in the OIC regions (1993-2016) 300.000.000 250.000.000 200.000.000 150.000.000 100.000.000 50.000.000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 OIC-Sub Saharan Africa OIC-Asia OIC-MENA OIC-Average Source: World Development Indicators 27
Per capita air passengers at the OIC Countries (2016) MENA Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Qatar 12,145 Mauritania 0,065 Maldives 3,377 UAE 9,942 Togo 0,062 Brunei Darussalam 2,761 Bahrain 3,663 Gabon 0,039 Malaysia 1,726 Oman 1,727 Nigeria 0,024 Suriname 0,480 Turkey 1,262 Mozambique 0,022 Indonesia 0,370 Saudi Arabia 1,069 Gambia, The 0,022 Kazakhstan 0,281 Kuwait 0,988 Cote d'ivoire 0,018 Turkmenistan 0,233 Lebanon 0,441 Cameroon 0,015 Azerbaijan 0,201 Jordan 0,336 Burkina Faso 0,008 Tajikistan 0,119 Tunisia 0,316 Sudan 0,007 Kyrgyz Republic 0,096 Morocco 0,219 Uganda 0,001 Uzbekistan 0,075 Libya 0,204 Niger 0,001 Afghanistan 0,055 Iran 0,193 Senegal 0,001 Pakistan 0,050 Algeria 0,150 Bangladesh 0,023 Egypt 0,130 Yemen 0,030 Iraq 0,013 Albania 0,009 Source: World Development Indicators 28
Air Freight Traffic (million ton-km) Air Freight Traffic Total air freight carried in the OIC regions (million ton-km) (1993-2016) 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 OIC-MENA OIC-Asia OIC-Sub Saharan Africa OIC-Averaga Source: World Development Indicators 29
Environmental Effects of Transport Sector 30
GHG Emissions by Sector and Mode World CO2 emissions by sector (2014) Other 7% International trade related CO2 emissions by mode (2014) Services 3% Residential 6% Industry 19% Electricity and heat generation 42% Transport 23% Source: OECD/IEA (2016) Source: OECD/ITF (2016) 31
Transport CO 2 emissions and GDP p/cap Transport CO2 emissions and GDP per capita (PPP) in OIC Countries (2014) Source: OECD/IEA (2015) 32
Road sector energy consumption per capita (kg of oil equivalent) (2011) Road sector energy consumption and income per/c 3.000 2.500 Qatar 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 - Oman Libya Bahrain Malaysia Iraq Kazakhstan Benin Gabon Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE - 50.000 100.000 150.000 GDP per capita (2015), PPP (constant 2011 $) Source: World Development Indicators 33
Previous Studies and Policy Recommendations 34
Previous Studies of TCWG 1. MFT among the OIC Member Countries I, II 2. Implementation challenges for transport PPPs in OIC member states 3. Developing Air Linkages To Sustain Tourism Among The OIC Member States 4. Evaluating the Ownership, Governance Structures, and Performances of Ports in the OIC Member States 5. Urban Transport in the OIC Megacities 6. Enhancing Road Maintenance in the OIC Member States 7. Improving Road Safety in the OIC Member States 35
Policy Recommendations Need to abstain from adopting one size fits all policies More holistic view that promotes intermodal transport More cooperation in transport and communications field Improved institutional structure Better use of PPPs Success factors: adoption of a sound policy framework feasible projects and well-planned project pipeline right cooperative approach institutional capacity and human resources development accumulation of expertise 36
Thank you for your attention COMCEC Coordination Office transport@comcec,org Transport and Communications Working Group 12 th Meeting October 11th, 2018 Ankara, Turkey