General Election 2015 CONSTITUENCY POLLING REPORT Competitive Liberal Democrat battleground Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC
Methodology 8,008 adults were interviewed by telephone between 12 and 28 in the following constituencies: CONSERVATIVE TARGETS North Cornwall (1,004: 12-20 March) North Devon (1,001: 24 26 March) St Austell & Newquay (1,002: 12 19 March) St Ives (1,000: 12 21 March) Torbay (1,000: 12 21 March) LABOUR TARGETS Cambridge (1,000: 24 28 March) Sheffield Hallam (1,001: 22 28 March) CONSERVATIVE DEFENCE Camborne & Redruth (1,001: 24-26 March) For each constituency, results were weighted to be representative of all adults living in the constituency. Results are weighted by recalled past vote at the last general election and stated likelihood to turn out at the next. A proportion of those who don't or refuse to say how they will vote are re- allocated to the party they voted for at the 2010 general election. Full data tables are available at www.lordashcroftpolls.com.
Voting intention 1. If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be ervative,, Liberal Democrat,, or another party? If another party : Would that be, the Green Party, the British National Party (BNP), or some other party or do you not how you would vote? 2. And thinking specifically about your own parliamentary constituency at the next general election and the candidates who are likely to stand for election to Westminster there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency? [Prompts as at Q1] (change since 2010) Standard voting intention (Q1) tituency voting intention (Q2) Con Lib Dem Lab Green Other Con Lib Dem Lab Green Other Lead, Sept 2014 Lead, Swing since 2010 (local VI) Implied result Camborne & Redruth 39 10 26 14 9 3 37 (- 1) 13 (- 24) 24 (+8) 14 (+9) 8 (+7) 3 (- ) 3 over * 13 over Lab 11.5 LD- Con Con hold North Cornwall 41 24 9 16 9 1 36 (- 6) 38 (- 10) 6 (+2) 13 (+8) 6 (+6) 1 (- ) Tie 2 2.0 LD- Con LD hold North Devon 42 19 11 18 7 2 38 (+2) 31 (- 16) 8 (+3) 16 (+9) 6 (+5) 2 (- 1) 1** 7 9.0 LD- Con Con gain St Austell & Newquay 37 19 14 20 7 3 32 (- 8) 26 (- 17) 10 (+3) 20 (+16) 6 (+6) 4 (- 2) 1 6 4.5 LD- Con Con gain St Ives 36 25 14 15 8 3 33 (- 6) 36 (- 7) 10 (+2) 11 (+5) 7 (+4) 3 (+1) 1 3 0.5 LD- Con LD hold Torbay 38 23 14 19 5 1 33 (- 6) 34 (- 13) 11 (+4) 17 (+12) 3 (+2) 1 (- ) Tie 1 3.5 LD- Con LD hold Cambridge 22 27 32 3 15 0 17 (- 9) 40 (+1) 31 (+7) 3 (+1) 9 (+1) 0 (- 1) 1 9 3.0 LD- Lab LD hold Sheffield Hallam 22 26 36 7 8 2 16 (- 8) 34 (- 19) 36 (+20) 7 (+5) 6 (+4) 1 (- 2) 3** 2 19.5 LD- Lab Lab gain * Camborne & Redruth: June 2014 ** North Devon, Sheffield Hallam: November 2014
Lib Dem- ervative aggregate battleground results Data weighted to be representative of the Lib Dem- ervative battleground as a whole: the 5 Lib Dem- held ervative targets. If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Standard voting intention (Q1) tituency voting intention (Q2) Swing since (change since 2010) 2010 Con Lib Dem Lab Green Other Con Lib Dem Lab Green Other (local VI) LD- Con seats 39 22 12 18 7 2 34 33 9 16 6 2 4 LD- Con Are there any parties you would definitely not vote for at the next general election? ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters LD- Con seats 46 61 47 60 87 64 73 84 56 76 68 60 80 66 79 70 Thinking about Britain s economy including things like jobs, wages, prices, taxes and interest rates how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year for the country as a whole, and for you and your family? ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Country Me & family Country Me & family Country Me & family Country Me & family Country Me & family Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly LD- Con seats 61 33 65 30 88 9 88 10 50 44 59 37 64 33 69 27 50 45 55 41
Which of the following statements do you most agree with? (a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister (b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister (c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead. ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters LD- Con seats 37 28 22 75 23 1 13 11 72 27 32 33 20 46 21 I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from the ervatives,, the or? Heard from ervatives Heard from Heard from Heard from None of them LD- Con seats 53 19 52 29 25 Which of the following would you most like to see as the outcome of the next election? A ervative government, a coalition between the ervatives and the Liberal Democrats, a coalition between and the Liberal Democrats, or a government? ALL VOTERS ervative voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Don't Don t Don t Don't LD- Con seats 33 19 13 17 17 82 16 1 0 1 2 2 76 19 1 7 43 34 10 6 34 18 11 17 14 Don t
Parties ruled out? 3. Are there any parties you would definitely not vote for at the next general election? Con voters voters Lib Dem voters voters Camborne & Redruth 86 68 73 86 70 74 61 58 84 69 76 81 North Cornwall 86 61 76 84 53 69 64 65 75 64 79 67 North Devon 90 66 77 83 49 82 69 61 88 66 83 70 St Austell & Newquay 89 67 66 86 61 74 64 55 77 69 72 72 St Ives 86 65 78 81 57 80 70 56 86 61 83 66 Torbay 82 62 67 84 55 75 74 67 75 66 78 75 Cambridge 75 44 87 75 55 81 60 42 92 70 58 76 Sheffield Hallam 76 49 74 86 72 92 50 66 91 54 77 72 Economic optimism 4. Thinking about Britain s economy including things like jobs, wages, prices, taxes and interest rates how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year for the country as a whole, and for you and your family? For the country as a whole For me and my family Well Badly Well Badly Camborne & Redruth 59 35 65 30 North Cornwall 62 33 67 29 North Devon 65 29 69 26 St Austell & Newquay 57 37 63 33 St Ives 60 35 63 32 Torbay 64 32 66 29 Cambridge 68 27 73 22 Sheffield Hallam 70 25 75 21
Choice of Prime Minister 5. Which of the following statements do you most agree with? (a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister (b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister BUT I'd still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister (c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister AND I'd prefer to have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister instead. with Cameron Dissatisfied, but prefer Cameron to Miliband Dissatisfied and prefer Miliband Refused / Don t Know Camborne & Redruth 36 26 27 11 North Cornwall 39 29 20 13 North Devon 42 25 21 12 St Austell & Newquay 33 31 21 15 St Ives 35 26 27 12 Torbay 36 27 23 14 Cambridge 34 19 33 13 Sheffield Hallam 35 23 32 10
Local campaign activity 6. I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks whether by delivering leaflets or newspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from the ervatives,, the or? From From From From From none Camborne & Redruth 65 40 65 29 17 North Cornwall 46 51 15 27 31 North Devon 60 50 16 25 24 St Austell & Newquay 50 57 24 42 21 St Ives 55 56 25 20 21 Torbay 54 45 18 30 28 Cambridge 39 64 68 12 18 Sheffield Hallam 13 76 53 7 14 red election result 7. Which of the following would you most like to see as the outcome of the next election? A ervative government, a coalition between the ervatives and the Liberal Democrats, a coalition between and the Liberal Democrats, or a government? ervative government Con- Lib Dem coalition Lab- Lib Dem coalition government Don t Camborne & Redruth 31 15 11 27 15 North Cornwall 33 24 11 15 16 North Devon 38 17 12 16 17 St Austell & Newquay 31 18 15 16 20 St Ives 31 18 16 20 15 Torbay 31 20 12 21 16 Cambridge 17 16 24 27 16 Sheffield Hallam 21 21 16 30 12
Appendix: results at 2010 general election () Con Lib Dem Green Others Majority Swing needed Camborne & Redruth 15969 (37.6) 15,903 (37.4) 6945 (16) 2152 (5) 581 (1.4) 1429 (2.8) 66 (0.2) 0.1 Con LD North Cornwall 19531 (41.7) 22512 (48.1) 1917 (4.2) 2300 (4.9) - 530 (1.1) 2981 (6.4) 3.2 LD Con North Devon 18484 (36.0) 24305 (47.4) 2671 (5.2) 3720 (7.2) 697 (1.4) 1444 (2.8) 5821 (11.3) 5.65 LD- Con St Austell & Newquay 18877 (40.0) 20189 (42.7) 3386 (7.2) 1757 (3.7) - 3029 (6.4) 1312 (2.8) 1.4 LD Con St Ives 17900 (39.0) 19619 (42.7) 3751 (8.2) 2560 (5.6) 1308 (2.8) 783 (1.7) 1719 (3.7) 1.85 LD Con Torbay 19048 (38.7) 23126 (47.0) 3231 (6.6) 2628 (5.3) 468 (1.0) 709 (1.4) 4078 (8.0) 4.15 LD Con Cambridge 12829 (25.6) 19621 (39.1) 12174 (24.3) 1195 (2.4) 3804 (7.6) 507 (1.0) Sheffield Hallam 12040 (23.5) 27324 (53.4) 8228 (16.1) 1195 (2.3) 919 (1.8) 1429 (2.8) 6792 (13.5) over Con 7447 (14.8) over Lab 15284 (29.9) over Con 19096 (37.3) over Lab 6.75 LD Con 7.4 LD- Lab 14.95 LD- Con 18.65 LD- Lab