Savills Research Australia Quarter Time National Retail Key Averages (East Coast) Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Department Store Gross Rent ($/sq m) 215 DDS Gross Rent ($/sq m) 235 235 Supermarket Gross Rent ($/sq m) 375 375 385 Specialty Tenant Gross Rent ($/sq m) 1,520 975 730 Mini-Major Gross Rent ($/sq m) 1,060 885 440 285 Average Yield (%) 5.15 6.30 6.10 7.05 Average IRR (%) 6.80 7.40 7.15 8.20 Average Outgoings ($/sq m) 197 150 123 53 Trends Detailed Sales Activity: $9.917bn 224 Sales ($5m+) Development (U/C) 902,034 sq m 68 projects Retail Trade $106.95bn 3.0% growth Average Capital Value ($/sq m) 10,275 5,250 5,175 3,350 savills.com.au/research
Report Contents Key Averages 2 Major Sales Analysis 3 Retail Trade Trends 5 Development Analysis 6 State Indicators and Major Activity New South Wales 7 Victoria 9 Queensland 11 Western Australia 13 South Australia 15 Shrabastee Mallik smallik@savills.com.au Director Research & Consultancy For our latest national reports, visit savills.com.au/research To join Savills Research mailing list, please email research@savills.com.au Key State Contacts 18 Key Markets Average Yield and IRR vs 10yr Bond Rate (East Coast only) 12% 10yr Bond Rate Average Blended Yield Average Blended IRR 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Source: RBA, Savills Research Key Markets Average Yield Spread over 10yr Bond Rate and IRR Multiple (East Coast only) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 Yield Premium over 10yr Bond Rate (bps) IRR Multiple of 10yr Bond Rate (RHS) 5.0-x 4.5-x 4.0-x 3.5-x 3.0-x 2.5-x 2.0-x 1.5-x 1.0-x Source: RBA, Savills Research savills.com.au/research 2
Major Sales Analysis Top Recent Sales over $20m by Value Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m Figtree Grove, NSW Sub Regional 206.00 Dec-18 21,984 6.00 r 9,370 Burwood One, VIC Sub Regional 181.50 Oct-18 26,267 5.23 i 6,910 Harbour Town, QLD (25%) Regional 180.00 Dec-18 55,225 5.00 r 13,038 Waverley Gardens, VIC Sub Regional 178.00 Dec-18 39,490 6.25 e 4,601 The Barracks, QLD Mixed Use 160.67 Oct-18 19,712 5.80 r 8,151 Lidcombe Centre, NSW Sub Regional 145.00 Oct-18 32,911 6.49 r 4,406 Crossroads Homemaker Centre, NSW Large Format 140.00 Dec-18 48,400 6.75 i 2,893 King Street Wharf, NSW City Centre 125.50 Dec-18 7,700 6.02 r 16,299 Hurstville Central, NSW Neighbourhood 119.50 Oct-18 6,293 6.60 i 18,989 Keilor Central, VIC Sub Regional 113.00 Dec-18 18,738 6.30 r 6,031 Stockland Bathurst, NSW Sub Regional 90.02 Nov-18 19,568 7.25 r 4,600 Highpoint Homemaker Centre, VIC Large Format 80.50 Nov-18 21,272 5.82 e 3,784 Campbellfield Plaza, VIC Sub Regional 74.00 Dec-18 17,900 6.50 r 4,134 Coomera Square, QLD Neighbourhood 58.50 Nov-18 9,430 6.90 e 6,204 Bvlgari Building, NSW CBD Retail 58.00 Dec-18 950 n.a n.a 61,053 Cranebrook Village, NSW Neighbourhood 48.10 Oct-18 6,633 5.23 e 7,252 Aurora Village SC, VIC Neighbourhood 45.00 Dec-18 9,677 5.60 r 4,650 Bunnings Acacia Ridge, QLD Large Format 44.65 Oct-18 15,828 5.25 e 2,821 Bunnings Toowoomba, QLD Large Format 41.40 Oct-18 17,830 5.35 e 2,322 Yamanto Shopping Village, QLD Neighbourhood 35.25 Nov-18 12,532 7.64 e 2,813 Source: Savills Research; Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Sales Activity by State and Year (Sales $5m+) Sales Volume by Type (YTD Sales $5m+) $12bn NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT Regional - $2,088m - 22.7% $10bn $8bn $6bn $4bn $2bn $0bn Sub Regional - $2,114m - 23.0% Large Format - $1,028m - 11.2% City Centre - $256m - 2.8% Freestanding - $755m - 8.2% Neighbourhood - $1,690m - 18.3% Shops - $596m - 6.5% Other - $493m - 5.4% savills.com.au/research 3
Top Recent Sales Regional & Sub-Regional Sales by $/sq m 17,098 13,038 10,909 9,370 8,473 8,055 7,214 6,910 6,745 6,031 5,920 5,695 4,763 4,600 4,500 4,406 4,134 4,133 3,986 3,491 (50%) Westfield Eastgardens, NSW - Jul-18 - $720.00m (25%) Harbour Town, QLD - Dec-18 - $180.00m (50%) Pacific Werribee, VIC - Jun-18 - $600.00m Figtree Grove, NSW - Dec-18 - $206.00m (50%) Ashfield Mall, NSW - Aug-18 - $102.52m (50%) Grand Plaza Shopping Centre, QLD - Apr-18 - (48%) Salamander Bay Centre, NSW - Aug-18 - $83.10m Burwood One, VIC - Oct-18 - $181.50m Stockland Wallsend, NSW - May-18 - $81.00m Keilor Central, VIC - Dec-18 - $113.00m Brandon Park Shopping Centre, VIC - Apr-18 - $135.00m (50%) Pacific Epping, VIC - Jun- 18 - $373.00m Sturt Mall, NSW - Aug-18 - $73.00m Stockland Bathurst, NSW - Nov- 18 - $90.02m Waverley Gardens, VIC - Nov-18 - $178.00m Lidcombe Centre, NSW - Oct-18 - $145.00m Campbellfield Plaza, VIC - Dec- 18 - $74.00m Belmont Village, VIC - Oct-18 - $58.00m Toormina Garden Shopping Centre, NSW - Jan-18 - $83.30m Gateway Plaza S.C, VIC - Jun-18 - $117.00m Top Recent Neighbourhood Sales by $/sq m 18,989 10,016 9,047 7,252 7,032 6,527 6,402 6,204 6,125 5,954 5,816 5,729 5,592 5,414 5,371 5,342 5,299 5,253 5,163 4,945 Hurstville Central, NSW - Oct-18 - $119.50m Coles Crows Nest, NSW - May-18 - $45.00m Mordialloc Plaza, VIC - May-18 - $41.00m Cranebrook Village, NSW - Oct- 18 - $48.10m Nundah Village, QLD - Jun-18 - $36.60m Flinders Square, WA - Aug-18 - $39.50m North Shore Village, QLD - Oct- 18 - $26.10m Coomera Square, QLD - Nov-18 - $58.50m Thornleigh Marketplace, NSW - May-18 - $43.10m Woolworths Cairns, QLD - Nov- 18 - $23.50m Stockland Highlands Shopping Centre, VIC - May-18 - $43.00m Mosman Heights Shopping Centre, WA - Aug-18 - $10.25m Oxenford Village, QLD - Oct-18 - $32.50m Maroondah Village Shopping Centre, VIC - May-18 - $16.80m Morningside Plaza S.C., QLD - Mar-18 - $23.80m Woolworths Aveley, WA - Aug- 18 - $26.93m Gabba Central, QLD - Jun-18 - $22.39m Wattle Grove SC, WA - Nov-18 - $16.30m Torquay Village, VIC - Feb-18 - $35.00m Mornington Village SC, VIC - Jun- 18 - $39.38m Vendor/Purchaser Analysis 12 Months to December 2018 (Sales $5m+) Vendor Purchaser 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fund Trust Developer Owner Occupier Government Syndicate Foreign Investor Private Investor Other savills.com.au/research 4
Retail Trade Trends & Drivers Retail Trade Compound Annual Growth Rate by State (to Dec-18) Retail Trade Growth by Sector - 12 month change (to Dec-18) 6% 1yr 5yr 10yr 15yr 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 5% 4% 2.2% 2.1% 3% 1.0% 0.6% 2% 1% 0% NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT AUS Clothing & Footwear Supermarkets Other Food Hardware & Garden Café & Restaurants Household Goods Department Stores Composition of Quarterly Retail Turnover (to Dec-18) NSW - $8,640m (31.8%) VIC - $7,070m (26.0%) QLD - $5,391m (19.8%) WA - $2,855m (10.5%) SA - $1,766m (6.5%) ACT - $670m (2.5%) TAS - $547m (2.0%) NT - $258m (0.9%) 10yr Compound Retail Trade Growth by Sector 180 Total Supermarkets Food 160 Household Goods Clothing & Footwear Department Stores 140 120 100 80 Annual Population Growth by State (%) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT AUS Wage Price Index - Change by Year 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Wage Price Index (Total) Wage Price Index (Private) Wage Price Index (Public) Sources: ABS/Savills Research savills.com.au/research 5
Retail Economic Indicators Summary Key State Indicators (%) Latest NSW VIC QLD WA SA ACT AUS SFD / GDP Growth Sep-18 3.5 (2.7) 4.4 (3.0) 3.2 (1.7) 0.3 (1.6) 3.1 (1.9) 3.7 (2.5) 2.8 (2.6) Population Growth Jun-18 1.5 (1.4) 2.2 (2.1) 1.7 (1.7) 0.8 (1.8) 0.7 (0.9) 2.2 (1.9) 1.6 (1.6) Employment Growth Dec-18 2.9 (1.8) 3.5 (2.4) 1.4 (1.2) 0.8 (1.2) 1.2 (0.7) -1.9 (1.2) 2.3 (1.7) Unemployment Rate Dec-18 4.7 (5.3) 4.8 (5.7) 6.2 (5.9) 6.3 (5.2) 5.7 (6.1) 3.7 (3.9) 5.3 (5.6) Inflation Dec-18 1.7 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1) 1.5 (2.1) 1.3 (1.8) 1.6 (2.0) 2.5 (1.9) 1.8 (2.0) Retail Turnover Dec-18 1.9 (4.2) 5.2 (4.0) 3.8 (3.1) 0.8 (3.1) 1.3 (2.3) 4.8 (3.6) 3.0 (3.6) Source: ABS/Savills ABS / Savills Note: Annual change shown, 10yr compound average in brackets Note: Annual change shown, 10yr compound average in brackets Major Retail Development Analysis National Development Activity by Retail Type (GLA sq m) National Development Activity by Retail Type (GLA sq m) 1,400 Regional Sub Regional Neighbourhood City Centre Large Format Mixed Use 1,200 Shops Other Freestanding Major Development Activity by State Major Development Activity by State % NSW - 36.1% NSW - 36.1% 1,000 800 600 VIC - 12.7% VIC - 12.7% QLD - 26.3% QLD - 26.3% 400 200 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SA - 3.4% SA - 3.4% WA - 21.6% WA - 21.6% Major Major Development Development Activity Activity by by Type Type (sq (sq m m x x 1,000) 1,000) Major Major Development Development Activity Activity by by Stage Stage (sq (sq m m x 1,000) x 1,000) SA SA Refurb Addition New VIC WA QLD SA SA VIC VIC WA WA QLD QLD Mooted Mooted Plans Plans Approved Under Under Construction Complete Plans Plans Submitted Early Early Planning NSW NSW NSW 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 0 500 500 1,000 1,000 1,500 1,500 2,000 2,000 Source: Cordells/Savills / Savills savills.com.au/research 6
New South Wales NSW Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS NSW GDP / SFD Growth Sep-18 2.8 (2.6) 3.5 (2.7) Population Growth Jun-18 1.6 (1.6) 1.5 (1.4) Employment Growth Dec-18 2.3 (1.7) 2.9 (1.8) Unemployment Rate Dec-18 5.3 (5.6) 4.7 (5.3) House Price Growth Sep-18-4.0 (4.9) -6.7 (6.4) Apartment Price Growth Sep-18-2.5 (4.1) -1.4 (6.2) F/T Earnings Growth May-18 2.7 (3.2) 3.7 (3.5) Retail Trade Growth Dec-18 3.0 (3.6) 1.9 (4.2) Food Dec-18 4.0 (3.8) 3.1 (3.9) Dept Stores Dec-18 0.6 (0.2) 0.8 (0.3) H/H Goods Dec-18 1.0 (2.8) 0.2 (3.6) Clothing Dec-18 4.4 (3.3) 2.5 (4.4) Cafes Dec-18 2.1 (5.6) 2.4 (7.5) Source: ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets NSW Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross 100 250 DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross 150 275 150 275 Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross 250 550 225 550 250 550 Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 390 1,660 300 950 200 650 Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 1,000 2,815 600 1,500 500 1,350 175 565 Yield - Market (%) 4.00 6.75 5.25 7.50 5.25 8.00 6.50 8.00 IRR (%) 6.25 7.75 6.75 8.25 6.50 8.00 7.50 8.75 Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) 135 210 115 150 100 150 10 25 Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) 25 45 25 35 20 45 15 35 Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) 160 255 140 185 120 195 25 60 Capital Values ($/sqm) 8,500 17,000 3,500 7,500 3,000 8,000 1,500 5,800 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 7
NSW Market Activity Last Reported Sales in NSW over $5 million by Price Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Westfield Eastgardens (50%) Regional 720.00 Jul-18 84,220 3.90 e 17,098 Figtree Grove Sub Regional 206.00 Dec-18 21,984 6.00 r 9,370 Lidcombe Centre Sub Regional 145.00 Oct-18 32,911 6.49 r 4,406 Crossroads Homemaker Centre Large Format 140.00 Dec-18 48,400 6.75 i 2,893 King Street Wharf City Centre 125.50 Dec-18 7,700 6.02 r 16,299 Hurstville Central Neighbourhood 119.50 Oct-18 6,293 6.60 i 18,989 The Homemaker Greenway and Greenway Plaza Large Format 112.40 Sep-18 29,069 7.20 e 3,867 Ashfield Mall (50%) Sub Regional 102.52 Aug-18 24,200 5.47 e 8,473 Stockland Bathurst Sub Regional 90.02 Nov-18 19,568 7.25 e 4,600 Salamander Bay Centre (48%) Sub Regional 83.10 Aug-18 24,000 n.a n.a 7,214 Sturt Mall Sub Regional 73.00 Aug-18 15,327 6.46 e 4,763 Cranebrook Village Neighbourhood 48.10 Oct-18 6,633 5.23 e 7,252 Bunnings Port Macquarie Large Format 44.65 Sep-18 20,400 5.64 r 2,189 Woolworths Ermington Freestanding 26.25 Nov-18 n.a n.a n.a n.a ShopSmart Sub Regional 25.00 Aug-18 11,191 6.70 r 2,234 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Bunnings Port Macquarie LF / UC 20,345 2019 Richmond S.C. SR / PA 18,217 2019 Bunnings Smithfield LF / UC 17,355 2019 Bunnings Lakehaven LF / UC 16,313 2019 Tahmoor Town Centre NH / PS 15,258 2019 David Jones CBD / UC 39,000 2020 Home Centre Gregory Hills LF / PA 29,880 2020 Former Masters Padstow LF / PA 25,147 2020 Pretty Girl Site - Bunnings Tempe LF / PS 19,813 2020 Bay Central Shopping Centre SR / UC 17,800 2020 St Marys Village SC SR / EP 15,949 2020 Former Masters Windale LF / PS 13,744 2020 Tuggerah Gateway Site LF / PA 13,675 2020 Former Masters Fairy Meadow LF / PA 13,404 2020 Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 8
Victoria VIC Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS Vic GDP / SFD Growth Sep-18 2.8 (2.6) 4.4 (3.0) Population Growth Jun-18 1.6 (1.6) 2.2 (2.1) Employment Growth Dec-18 2.3 (1.7) 3.5 (2.4) Unemployment Rate Dec-18 5.3 (5.6) 4.8 (5.7) House Price Growth Sep-18-4.0 (4.9) -2.1 (6.2) Apartment Price Growth Sep-18-2.5 (4.1) 1.0 (4.0) F/T Earnings Growth May-18 2.7 (3.2) 2.8 (3.4) Retail Trade Growth Dec-18 3.0 (3.6) 5.2 (4.0) Food Dec-18 4.0 (3.8) 5.1 (4.0) Dept Stores Dec-18 0.6 (0.2) 0.4 (1.0) H/H Goods Dec-18 1.0 (2.8) 3.4 (4.1) Clothing Dec-18 4.4 (3.3) 9.6 (3.7) Cafes Dec-18 2.1 (5.6) 5.2 (4.8) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets VIC Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross 150 300 DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross 210 300 170 340 Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross 250 400 250 400 250 400 Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1,750 400 1,500 300 650 Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 750 2,000 550 1,500 450 750 175 300 Yield - Market (%) 4.25 5.50 5.25 6.75 5.25 6.50 6.00 7.50 IRR (%) 6.25 7.00 7.00 7.75 6.25 7.25 7.75 8.75 Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) 100 150 75 100 50 75 25 50 Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) 40 75 25 50 25 35 10 20 Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) 140 225 100 150 75 110 35 70 Capital Values ($/sqm) 7,500 12,000 3,500 7,500 3,000 7,000 2,000 3,500 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 9
VIC Market Activity Last Reported Sales in VIC over $5 million by Price Property Type Price Date GLA Yield Type $/sq m Burwood One Sub Regional 181.50 Oct-18 26,267 5.23 i 6,910 Waverley Gardens Sub Regional 178.00 Dec-18 39,490 6.25 e 4,601 Keilor Central Sub Regional 113.00 Dec-18 18,738 6.30 r 6,031 Highpoint Homemaker Centre Large Format 80.50 Nov-18 21,272 5.82 e 3,784 Campbellfield Plaza Sub Regional 74.00 Dec-18 17,900 6.50 r 4,134 Belmont Village Sub Regional 58.00 Oct-18 14,034 n.a n.a 4,133 Aurora Village SC Neighbourhood 45.00 Dec-18 9,677 5.60 r 4,650 Mornington Village SC Neighbourhood 39.38 Jun-18 7,963 5.26 r 4,945 283-285 Burwood Rd, Hawthorn Large Format 25.00 Sep-18 4,509 3.14 r 5,544 Coles Hamilton Freestanding 23.00 Dec-18 3,870 5.20 i 5,943 Liberty Tower Retail Centre City Centre 21.55 Nov-18 639 4.13 r 33,725 Woolworths Burwood East Freestanding 18.17 Aug-18 3,400 4.57 r 5,344 Woolworths Scoresby Freestanding 15.12 Aug-18 2,983 4.52 e 5,069 Adairs Richmond Freestanding 14.81 Sep-18 1,135 2.09 r 13,048 164-168 Greville St, Prahran Mixed Use 13.38 Oct-18 1,890 n.a n.a 7,079 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Craigieburn Junction LF / UC 21,000 2019 Bunnings Clyde North LF / PA 16,600 2019 Burwood Brickworks Shopping Centre NH / UC 12,700 2019 Kingston Village NH / PA 10,977 2019 Pentridge Mixed Use / UC 6,000 2019 Pentridge Retail Hub NH / UC 11,000 2020 District Docklands Mixed Use / PA 5,700 3,800 2020 Merrifield Town Centre R / PS 200,000 2021 Westfield Knox R / PA 45,000 2021 M-City SR / PA 26,500 2021 Jam Factory Mixed Use / PA 50,000 2023 The Village Alphington Mixed Use / PA 4,494 2023 Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 10
Queensland QLD Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS Qld GDP / SFD Growth Sep-18 2.8 (2.6) 3.2 (1.7) Population Growth Jun-18 1.6 (1.6) 1.7 (1.7) Employment Growth Dec-18 2.3 (1.7) 1.4 (1.2) Unemployment Rate Dec-18 5.3 (5.6) 6.2 (5.9) House Price Growth Sep-18-4.0 (4.9) 2.0 (2.6) Apartment Price Growth Sep-18-2.5 (4.1) -4.4 (1.1) F/T Earnings Growth May-18 2.7 (3.2) 3.3 (3.5) Retail Trade Growth Dec-18 3.0 (3.6) 3.8 (3.1) Food Dec-18 4.0 (3.8) 5.3 (4.1) Dept Stores Dec-18 0.6 (0.2) 1.3 (0.0) H/H Goods Dec-18 1.0 (2.8) 1.4 (2.1) Clothing Dec-18 4.4 (3.3) 5.5 (3.1) Cafes Dec-18 2.1 (5.6) -0.6 (3.9) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets QLD Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross 200 300 DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross 200 285 200 285 Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross 350 500 350 500 350 500 Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1,750 400 1,750 200 650 Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 855 1,710 570 1,140 523 808 150 330 Yield - Market (%) 4.50 6.00 6.00 7.00 5.00 7.50 6.25 8.00 IRR (%) 6.25 7.25 7.00 7.50 6.75 8.00 7.50 9.00 Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) 135 185 90 155 65 115 30 50 Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) 40 55 35 45 20 50 15 30 Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) 175 240 125 200 85 165 45 80 Capital Values ($/sqm) 6,600 10,000 3,000 6,500 3,000 7,000 1,750 5,500 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 11
QLD Market Activity Last Reported Sales in QLD over $5 million by Price Property Type Price ($m)w Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Harbour Town (25%) Regional 180.00 Dec-18 55,225 n.a n.a 13,038 Homemaker The Valley Large Format 166.22 Sep-18 38,284 6.67 e 4,342 The Barracks Mixed Use 160.67 Oct-18 19,712 5.80 r 8,151 Coomera Square Neighbourhood 58.50 Nov-18 9,430 6.90 e 6,204 Wilsonton S.C. Sub Regional 50.50 Jul-18 18,500 8.44 e 2,729 Yamanto Shopping Village Neighbourhood 35.25 Nov-18 12,532 7.64 e 2,813 Oxenford Village* Neighbourhood 32.50 Oct-18 5,812 6.10 e 5,592 Festival Towers Retail City Centre 32.00 Aug-18 1,033 5.02 e 30,978 Miami One Shopping Centre Neighbourhood 32.25 Oct-18 4,647 6.43 e 6,940 Coles Alderley Freestanding 30.20 Sep-18 4,410 5.29 r 6,848 North Shore Village* Neighbourhood 26.10 Oct-18 4,077 6.02 e 6,402 Woolworths Mossman Freestanding 23.75 Sep-18 3,947 6.00 r 6,017 Woolworths Caloundra Neighbourhood 23.08 Oct-18 4,762 5.67 e 4,847 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development; *part of portfolio sale Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Sunshine Plaza R / UC 8,000 33,000 2019 Lutwyche City SR / UC 19,046 5,738 2019 Bunnings Virginia LF / UC 18,171 2019 Bunnings Acacia Ridge LF / UC 17,982 2019 Costco Warehouse LF / UC 13,759 2019 Former Masters Richlands LF / PA 12,170 2019 Former Masters Springfield Central LF / PS 10,694 2019 X Galaxy Shopping Mall CBD / PA 10,043 2019 Rochedale Village Stg 1 NH / UC 7,996 2019 Bunnings Kingaroy LF / UC 7,597 2019 Macgregor Homemaker Centre LF / PS 11,500 20,500 2020 Greenbank S.C. Stgs 1-3 SR / PA 21,250 2020 Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 12
Western Australia WA Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS WA GDP / SFD Growth Sep-18 2.8 (2.6) 0.3 (1.6) Population Growth Jun-18 1.6 (1.6) 0.8 (1.8) Employment Growth Dec-18 2.3 (1.7) 0.8 (1.2) Unemployment Rate Dec-18 5.3 (5.6) 6.3 (5.2) House Price Growth Sep-18-4.0 (4.9) -2.8 (1.1) Apartment Price Growth Sep-18-2.5 (4.1) -3.7 (0.9) F/T Earnings Growth May-18 2.7 (3.2) 1.4 (3.5) Retail Trade Growth Dec-18 3.0 (3.6) 0.8 (3.1) Food Dec-18 4.0 (3.8) 2.3 (3.4) Dept Stores Dec-18 0.6 (0.2) -1.1 (-0.5) H/H Goods Dec-18 1.0 (2.8) -5.5 (1.6) Clothing Dec-18 4.4 (3.3) -1.3 (-0.4) Cafes Dec-18 2.1 (5.6) 1.9 (6.2) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets WA Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High Department Store Rent ($/sq m) Gross 220 250 DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross 200 280 200 280 Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross 250 350 220 350 220 350 Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1,750 400 1,750 200 650 Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 1,100 2,000 600 1,500 350 900 150 300 Yield - Market (%) 4.50 5.75 5.25 7.00 5.75 8.50 5.50 9.50 IRR (%) 6.50 7.50 7.00 8.00 6.75 9.00 7.75 11.50 Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) 80 125 75 120 40 80 35 55 Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) 40 50 35 40 30 50 20 35 Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) 120 175 110 160 70 130 55 90 Capital Values ($/sqm) 5,000 11,000 2,700 6,500 2,500 5,500 1,100 5,500 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 13
WA Market Activity Last Reported Sales in WA over $5m by Price Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Malaga Homemaker Centre Large Format 40.00 Feb-18 18,924 n.a n.a 2,114 Flinders Square Neighbourhood 39.50 Aug-18 6,052 6.20 e 6,527 The Village Australind & Mardo Commercial Centre Neighbourhood 39.43 Oct-18 9,321 n.a n.a 4,230 Coles Riverton Freestanding 31.95 Jan-18 5,759 5.23 e 5,548 Woolworths Aveley Neighbourhood 26.93 Aug-18 5,040 5.78 e 5,342 Coles Orana Freestanding 22.80 Nov-18 4,051 5.65 r 5,628 Coles Vasse Freestanding 19.60 Nov-18 3,954 5.67 r 4,957 Kelmscott Plaza Neighbourhood 19.00 Apr-18 5,069 6.74 e 3,748 Shoalwater Shopping Centre Neighbourhood 16.50 Feb-18 4,700 7.13 e 3,511 Wattle Grove SC Neighbourhood 16.30 Nov-18 3,103 6.50 r 5,253 Woolworths Seacrest Neighbourhood 14.80 Nov-18 4,713 7.76 r 3,140 Pearsall Shopping Centre Neighbourhood 12.50 Feb-18 2,563 6.18 e 4,877 22 St Quentin Ave, Claremont Shops 12.35 Apr-18 775 4.60 r 15,935 Mosman Heights Shopping Centre Neighbourhood 10.25 Aug-18 1,789 5.67 i 5,729 1419-1423 Albany Hwy, Cannington Large Format 9.20 Sep-18 3,490 6.59 e 2,636 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Midland Gate Shopping Centre R / UC 18,000 2019 FOMO Kings Square Mixed Use / UC 5,500 2019 Woolworths Mt Pleasant NH / UC 4,969 2019 The Shops at Ellenbrook (Stage 2) SR / PA 2,775 2019 Karrinyup Shopping Centre R / UC 59,715 49,903 2020 Forrest Chase/City Central CBD / UC 41,575 2020 Ellenbrook Central Stage 3 & 4 SR / PA 31,138 2020 Bunbury Centrepoint Shopping Centre SR / PA 16,813 2,424 2020 1 Butler Blvd LF / PA 12,340 2020 Whitfords City (Stage 2) R / PA 100,000 2021 Westfield Stirling (Innaloo) R / PA 51,258 47,568 2021 Garden City R / PA 42,780 2021 Busselton Central Shopping Centre SR / PA 11,162 2021 Hay Street Mall, Piccadilly Arcade CBD / PA 1,659 2021 Carillon City SC CBD / PA 6,806 2022 Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 14
South Australia SA Retail Economic Drivers As at AUS SA GDP / SFD Growth Sep-18 2.8 (2.6) 3.1 (1.9) Population Growth Jun-18 1.6 (1.6) 0.7 (0.9) Employment Growth Dec-18 2.3 (1.7) 1.2 (0.7) Unemployment Rate Dec-18 5.3 (5.6) 5.7 (6.1) House Price Growth Sep-18-4.0 (4.9) 2.0 (2.5) Apartment Price Growth Sep-18-2.5 (4.1) 0.3 (1.9) F/T Earnings Growth May-18 2.7 (3.2) 0.6 (3.4) Retail Trade Growth Dec-18 3.0 (3.6) 1.3 (2.3) Food Dec-18 4.0 (3.8) 2.4 (3.1) Dept Stores Dec-18 0.6 (0.2) 0.8 (-1.2) H/H Goods Dec-18 1.0 (2.8) 3.6 (-0.1) Clothing Dec-18 4.4 (3.3) -4.4 (2.6) Cafes Dec-18 2.1 (5.6) 2.8 (3.7) Source: : ABS/Savills Research Note: 10yr average shown in brackets SA Key Indicators Enclosed Centres Regional Sub-Regional Neighbourhood Large Format Low High Low High Low High Low High DDS Rent ($/sq m) Gross 130 200 140 180 Supermarket Rent ($/sq m) Gross 250 450 235 425 235 400 Mini-Major Rent ($/sq m) Gross 400 1,750 400 1,750 200 650 Specialty Tenant Rent ($/sq m) Gross 1,100 1,900 750 1,250 200 800 150 300 Yield - Market (%) 5.75 7.00 6.75 8.00 6.50 8.25 7 9 IRR (%) 7.25 8.50 8.00 9.25 9.50 10.50 9 10 Outgoings - Operating ($/sqm) 50 100 50 100 50 100 20 30 Outgoings - Statutory ($/sqm) 35 55 30 40 25 70 15 30 Outgoings - Total ($/sqm) 85 155 80 140 75 170 35 60 Capital Values ($/sqm) 7,200 10,800 3,500 6,000 2,000 5,000 1,800 3,000 Source: Savills Research savills.com.au/research 15
SA Market Activity Latest Reported Sales in SA over $5m by Price Property Type Price ($m) Date GLA (sq m) Yield Type $/sq m Gawler Park Homemaker Centre Large Format 24.50 Sep-18 13,063 10.1 e 1,914 Greenacres Shopping Centre Neighbourhood 10.50 Apr-18 2,524 7.25 r 4,160 109 Rundle Mall, Adelaide City Centre 9.17 Jan-18 318 6.00 i 28,836 Lot 200 Commercial Street West, Mount Gambier Large Format 5.50 Mar-18 3,233 9.01 e 1,701 4-6 Jetty Rd, Glenelg Shops 5.48 Jul-18 498 4.33 r 10,994 Yield Types: i = initial, e = equated, r = reported, v = vacant, dev = development Major Construction Projects Centre Centre Type/ Dev t Stage Refurb./ Redev. Addition New Estimated Completion Bunnings Edwardstown LF / UC 17,008 2019 Adelaide Road, McCracken (Coles) LF / UC 4,268 2019 Port Canal Shopping Centre NH / UC 13,361 11,712 2020 District Outlet Centre LF / Deferred 41,000 2021 Former Le Cornu Site LF / PS 12,965 2021 Burnside Village SR / EP 11,000 2021 Westfield Marion (Stage 1B, 1C) R / Mooted 11,000 2023 Source: Cordell Construction Data; Savills Research LF=Large Format; NH=Neighbourhood; R=Regional; SR=Sub-Regional; CBD=CBD Centre; DA=Development Approval; PS=Plans Submitted; PA=Planning Approval; UC=Under Construction savills.com.au/research 16
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Savills New South Wales Valuations Chris Paul +61 (0) 2 8215 8850 cpaul@savills.com.au Asset Management Howard Chapman +61 (0) 2 8215 8870 hchapman@savills.com.au Retail Investments Steven Lerche +61 (0) 2 8215 8929 slerche@savills.com.au Retail Services Leighton Hunziker +61 (0) 2 8215 8838 lhunziker@savills.com.au Project Management Gavin Boswarva +61 (0) 2 8215 8935 gboswarva@savills.com.au Savills Victoria Valuations Stuart Fox +61 (0) 3 8686 8029 sfox@savills.com.au Retail Investments Ben Parkinson +61 (0) 3 8686 8012 bparkinson@savills.com.au Project Management David Hayden +61 (0) 3 9445 6806 dhayden@savills.com.au Asset Management Sarah Hendry +61 (0) 3 8686 8094 shendry@savills.com.au Savills Queensland Valuations Lawrence Devine +61 (0) 7 3002 8822 ldevine@savills.com.au Retail Investments Peter Tyson +61 (0) 7 3002 8807 ptyson@savills.com.au Asset Management Phillip Dunn +61 (0) 7 3002 8831 pdunn@savills.com.au Project Management Andy Hogg +61 (0) 7 3018 6738 ahogg@savills.com.au Savills South Australia Valuations Heath Dowling +61 (0) 8 8237 5039 hdowling@savills.com.au Retail Investments Peter Isaksson +61 (0) 8 8237 5020 pisaksson@savills.com.au Asset Management Jeffrey Klaebe +61 (0) 8 8237 5018 jklaebe@savills.com.au Project Management Steve Christodoulou +61 (0) 8 8237 5004 schristodoulou@savills.com.au Savills Western Australia Valuations Mark Foster-Key +61 (0) 8 9488 4145 mfosterkey@savills.com.au Asset Management Rob Agnew +61 (0) 8 9488 4104 ragnew@savills.com.au Retail Investments Barney Dear +61 (0) 8 9488 4116 bdear@savills.com.au Project Management Graham Nash +61 (0) 8 6271 0306 gnash@savills.com.au Retail Leasing Chris Ireland +61 (0) 8 94884179 cireland@savills.com.au Savills Australian Capital Territory Valuations Phil Harding +61 (0) 2 6221 8293 pharding@savills.com.au Project Management Justin Ibrahim +61 (0) 2 8913 4835 jibrahim@savills.com.au Retail Investments Steven Lerche +61 (0) 2 8215 8929 slerche@savills.com.au savills.com.au/research 18