The Role of Modeling in the Innovation of Sustainable Cassava Production Department of Agriculture and Chiangmai University
Radiation YIELD HYPOTHESIS Precipitation CO 2 + O 2 Temperature Soil Nutrient H 2 O Yield = Genetic x Environment x Management
Agricultural System & Information System Interface Science domain Understand Control Predict User s domain
Yield Gap Analysis 12 8 6 4 2 0 Fresh root yield (ton/rai) RY 90 KU 50 G E M Yield = Genetic x Environment x Management * Cultivar * Planting date * Spacing * Fertilization * Harvesting date YIELD GAP RY 90 KU 50 Observed Simulated ศ กยภาพ ทดลอง เกษตรกร (Adapted from: Sukit, 2001)
Target area in the Northeast of Thailand N NE C E Chaiyaphum Khon Kaen Mahasarakham S Nakorn Ratchasima Burirum Buffer 50 Km. around Ethanol Plant
Climatic Map and Weather Station in the NE Annual rainfall (mm.) 1,000-1,200 mm Climatic station Ethanol plant Buffer 50 km.
Climatic Map and Cassava Planted Area Cassava planted area Annual rainfall (mm.) 1,000-1,200 mm Climatic station Ethanol plant Buffer 50 Km.
Soil Texture in Target Area Ethanol plant Area (million ha.) 3.74 8.58 Texture sandy loam loamy sand
Soil Texture and Cassava Planted area Ethanol plant Cassava planted area 2.52 million ha. Soil texture sandy loam loamy sand
Cassava Production Observed and Simulated in the Buffer Area of Ethanol Plant
Cassava Variety 0 80 60 40 20 0 % farmer % Farmer Yield (ton/ha) ton/ha KU 50 RY 90 RY 72 > 1 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 45 ton/ha Oct Nov 40 35 30 3.7 3.5 2.2 25 20 15 KU 50 RY 9
50 40 30 20 0 Planting Date % Farmer Yield (ton/ha) % farmer ton/ha Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 45 ton/ha KU50 RY09 9 40 35 30 25 20 15 Oct Nov
plant no./ha Plant Population (plant no./ha) 25 20 15 5 0 % farmer % Farmer Yield (ton/ha) ton/ha,000 12,987 18,519 20,000 25,000 28,571 40,000 66,667 Population/ha 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 ton/ha KU50 RY 9 8,333,000 12,500 15,625 20,833 27,778 41,667 62,500 Population/ha
Plant Duration (month) 30 25 20 15 5 0 % farmer % Farmer Yield (ton/ha) ton/ha 8 M 9 M M 11 M 12 M 13 M 14 M 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 60 55 50 45 40 4.0 3.4 35 30 25 20 15 ton/ha KU 50 RY 9 5.3 3.9 4.0 5.6 8 M 9 M M 11 M 12 M 13 M 14 M
12 8 6 4 2 0 Variety รย R 90 KU มก 50 รย 90 มก 50 รย R 90 KU มก 50 ศ กยภาพ ทดลอง เกษตรกร Simulated Observed 12 8 6 4 2 0 Planting date 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 1 15 Cassava Model Decision Support System 14 Spacing 14 Plant duration 12 12 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 0x120 0x0 0x80 80x80 80x60 60x60 60x40 40x40 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 (Adapted from: Sukit, 2001)
Province level Farm level Crop level Plot level
Yield Potential of Cassava in the Buffer Area Chaiyaphum Khon Kaen Mahasarakham Province boundary Khon Kaen Chaiyaphum Nakorn Ratchasima Burirum Mahasarakham Ethanol Plant Burirum Potential Yield Not suitable Suitable Moderate suitable High suitable Nakorn Ratchasima
Actual Yield of Cassava by Selected Farmers in the Buffer Area Chaiyaphum Khon Kaen Mahasarakham Province boundary Khon Kaen Chaiyaphum Nakorn Ratchasima Burirum Mahasarakham Ethanol Plant Burirum Farmers Yield Not suitable Suitable Moderate suitable High suitable Nakorn Ratchasima
Yield Potential and Actual Yield of Farmers in the Buffer Area Chaiyaphum Khon Kaen Mahasarakham Province boundary Khon Kaen Chaiyaphum Nakorn Ratchasima Burirum Mahasarakham Ethanol Plant Nakorn Ratchasima Burirum Potential Yield Not suitable Suitable Moderate suitable High suitable Farmers Yield Not suitable Suitable Moderate suitable High suitable
Observed Yield in the Buffer Area after the 2 nd Year Project 72 ton/ha 72 ton/ha 60 60 48 48 36 36 24 24 12 12 0 0 Loamy sand Sandy loam Yield target (25 ton/ha) Original method Improved method Yield potential
On going activities with teams of farmers at farm level Farmers groups in 29 tambons of the target area Each group has some volunteers to test the method of increasing cassava yield by : - cultural practice - new promising cultivars Emphasize on the learning process by farmer participatory method
Time resource and effort are required to bulld trust between researchers and stakeholders (Tony Jakeman, 19 Jan 2007)
World of Oceans of Rivers of A Drop of (Adapted from: Prateep, 2005)