Tourism Trends Sharon Orrell October 2013
Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 It was a challenging start to the year though the longer term trend is one of stability Trips (m) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Domestic Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Holiday VFR Business Jan- June 2013-4% -2% -6% Source: GBTS
Just like last year, trends have varied by destination type Trips (m) 25 Domestic Overnight Trips January - June 20 15 10 5 0 Seaside Large Town / City Small Town Countryside / Village 2011 2012 2013 Source: GBTS
...and this is reflected in regional results 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Trips (m) Domestic Overnight Trips January - June South West South East North West London Yorks & Humb West Midlands East East Midlands North East 2011 2012 2013 Source: GBTS
But then... Weather on England Good Mixed Poor holiday 56% 40% 2013 holiday 4% (2012) (31%) (57%) (12%) (2011) (39%) (54%) (7%) (2010) (36%) (55%) (9%) (2009) (39%) (50%) (10%) Source: Staycation Research, Sept 2013
But then... Weather on England Good Mixed Poor holiday 56% 40% 2013 holiday 4% (2012) (31%) (57%) (12%) (2011) (39%) (54%) (7%) (2010) (36%) (55%) (9%) (2009) (39%) (50%) (10%) Source: Staycation Research, Sept 2013
Some of our visitors will always be influenced by the weather - though most aren t Impact of Weather on Future Holiday Intentions It hasn't affected how I feel about taking holidays in England next year 81 80 It's put me off taking holidays in England next year 2 16 It's made me more likely to take holidays in England next year 4 17 2013 2012 Source: VE Staycation Research
Summer 2012 business performance results the most positive since starting this survey % Businesses Reporting Increased Visitors in Recent Period 66 39 40 33 30 28 23 22 36 40 33 32 43 35 28 49 44 54 April 2012 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Accommodation Attractions Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor
...though trends differ by business type % Businesses Reporting Change in Visitor Numbers Summer Holidays 2013 73 51 39 56 55 84 62 15 17 27 27 32 10 25 Hotels Guest Houses / B&Bs Self- Catering Caravan / Camping Indoor Attractions Outdoor Attractions Mixed Attractions Increased Decreased Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor
It seems the economy is finally emerging from recession 2.5 UK GDP by Quarter 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5-3.0
People are now less concerned about the economy than they were but over half are still worried about making ends meet % strongly / slightly agree 70 52 75 54 63 58 53 61 59 54 64 60 57 74 72 66 65 61 60 70 65 59 67 64 58 69 66 59 61 60 55 Very concerned about it Concerned about job security Worried about making ends meet 47 49 Oct/NovFeb/Mar Jun-09 Oct/Nov Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 08 09 09 Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
And the numbers affected by the downturn haven t shifted much (38% of families still seriously affected ) 10 28 9 22 13 19 17 14 12 16 9 20 6 16 6 17 9 15 8 13 8 13 10 10 47 52 50 52 53 51 54 52 51 53 52 55 15 17 18 17 19 20 24 24 25 25 27 25 Oct/Nov 08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 Seriously affected Affected a little Hasn t affected, but concerned Hasn t affected, not worried Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
What happens next??? 55 UK Domestic Holiday Trips 2006-2023 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016... 2023 Source: GBTS
The growth of outbound travel started during the last recession Trips (m) 80 Outbound Trips by UK Residents 1989-2012 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Recession Recession 0 Source: International Passenger Survey
...but domestic travel also grew from 1993 onwards 140 Domestic Overnight Tourism Trips 1989-1998 (Millions) 120 100 80 60 40 Recession 20 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total UK UK Holiday (Pure Holiday + VFR Holiday) Source: UKTS/GBTS Note: a 3% upweight has been applied to 2010-12 data in place of Northern Ireland results
Among 2013 switchers (those who took a domestic holiday instead of going abroad...) % Agree Sept 2012 It made me want to take a holiday abroad next time 49% 55 % It made me want to take more holidays in England 52% 49%
Among 2013 switchers (those who took a domestic holiday instead of going abroad...) % Agree Sept 2012 It made me want to take a holiday abroad next time 49% 55 % It made me want to take more holidays in England 52% 49%
It s still all to play for...
What can we do about it?
Lack of knowledge plus broad brush prejudices can prevent consideration of much of England. Lacking information and inspiration Many simply don t know what they don t know large swathes of country are unfamiliar or not expected to be appealing patchy awareness even amongst the self proclaimed more knowledgeable empty nesters Potential visitors have a relatively narrow repertoire of places visited or wanting to visit and often only have a vague perception of not yet visited wish list places Liverpool, Birmingham, Leicester triangle, is there anything there to see or do? (London: Pre-family) I think the majority of seaside towns in the UK are tacky apart from Cornwall. (London: Pre-family) (South East)The wrong kind of people not for me. (Derby: Empty nester) Source: VisitEngland Thematic Research
We need to provide 3D inspiration and information to build consideration Where to go? Heard of places or have vague appealing image, but not always both Need a sufficiently 3D view to be compelling What s there to do? Beautiful scenery is not always enough, especially for longer trips (and if it rains ) Where Is it? People's geography can be quite poor, and location and proximity steers are helpful Source: VisitEngland Thematic Research
PS...
Northumberland 105 ENGLAND 92 Visitor Satisfaction in England 2011-12 94 Among England s cities, York was second only to Liverpool Cornwall 110 Lake District 106 Other Devon Liverpool 102 97 Blackpool 87 Bristol 80 Yorks Dales 103 Manchester 81 Chester 96 Bath 96 B mouth Torquay 92 95 Cotswolds 98 New Forest 105 97 York Leeds 76 101 Skegness Peak Nottingham District shire 97 Birmingham 74 Isle of Wight 104 Scarborough 96 92 London Oxfordshire 84 96 East Sussex 76 Brighton 92 Other Norfolk 95 Stratford 88 Essex 67 Gt Yarmouth 81 Suffolk 93 Kent 81 Source: VisitEngland Brand & Satisfaction Tracker
Northumberland 107 Newcastle Durham 86 88 ENGLAND 94 Visitor Satisfaction in England 2011-13 York now leads England s cities in delivering visitor satisfaction! 94 Cornwall 109 Lake District 109 Liverpool Torquay Blackpool Bristol Somerset Other Devon 96 97 97 88 80 92 89 Scarborough Yorks Moors 97 109 Yorkshire Coast York Yorks Dales Leeds Manchester Lincoln Peak District Bath Gloucester -shire Weymouth Chester 96 Staffordshire Shropshire 97 82 85 88 Bournemouth 92 104 77 73 Warwickshire Cotswolds Wiltshire New Forest Derbyshire Birmingham 90 98 84 96 77 100 102 Stratford Isle of Wight 97 92 91 75 89 Oxford 99 Notting -ham 94 Skegness London 98 East Sussex 95 76 89 Other Norfolk Cambridge Essex 73 97 93 71 Eastbourne Brighton Kent Gt Yarmouth 89 Suffolk 91 Kent Coast 81 79
www.visitengland.org/insight-statistics
Tourism Trends Sharon Orrell October 2013