"ST. KLIMENT OHRIDSKI FACULTY OF GEOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY

SOFIA UNIVERSITY "ST. KLIMENT OHRIDSKI FACULTY OF GEOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY APPLICATION OF THE MODEL "DRIVING FORCES PRESSURE STATE - RESPONSE FOR ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK RADOSTINA BORISOVA DOCHEVA Bachelor Degree of Regional Development and Politics Future master degree of Planning and Management of Territorial Systems

APPLICATION OF THE MODEL DPSR FOR ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD RISK Goal Assessment of flood risk and optimization of measures for flood protection Subject of research Rositsa river basin 2

Methodological approach Based on the European Environmental Agency (EEA) framework Driving forces - Pressures - State - Impact Responses (DPSIR) Climate Landscape factors Changes in land use Urbanization Transport infrastructure Soil sealing PRESSURES DRIVING FORCES RESPONSES Measures to prevent, protect and mitigate the negative consequences Historical and future flooding Types of floods Maximum flow STATE IMPACT Damages Socio-economic consequences Environmental impacts 3

Used method Introduction of "criteria for horizontal distance/offset Horizontal distance between an object (settlements, industrial or cultural sites, railways, roads, protected natural areas, etc.) and the nearby river In Rositsa river case that horizontal offset is 200 m. River 1 Settlement 1 Settlement 2 X m X m Threat of flooding X m X m River 2 Flood risk Settlement 3 4

Assessment of unfavorable impacts According to the requirements of the Directive 2007/60/EC (on the assessment and management of flood risks, 23.10.2007) are used several categories human health, economic activity, environment and cultural heritage Human health Assessed according to the criteria Number of affected residents Economic activity Assessed according to the criteria Area of industrial and commercial sites, Length of railway lines, Length of roads, Area of agricultural land Environment Assessed according to the criteria Area of protected areas Cultural heritage Assessed according to the criteria Number of cultural monuments Used software ArcGIS Desktop 9.3 & ArcGIS Desktop 10 (ESRI) Adverse effects They are defined for past and future floods in Rositsa river basin 5

Used information Spatial Information Represented by digital models of the terrain, geology, settlements, railways, roads, rivers, soils, vegetation, protected areas NATURA 2000, Corine Land Cover 2000 & 2006, Google earth, etc. Statistical and other information Including hydro-climatic data from the meteorological and hydrometric networks in Rositsa river basin 6

DRIVING FORCES Climate Landscape factors ROSITSA RIVER BASIN Application of the model Increased atmospheric humidity with significant frequency and duration of torrential rainfall Average annual precipitation 120/130-150/170 days 150/160 events with intense rains (the average for Bulgaria is 50/60 events) Huge potential conditions for the formation of snow that subsequently forms extreme high waters Many specific landscape conditions that intensify the water flow 7

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PRESSURES Changes in land use Urbanization Transport infrastructure Soil sealing ROSITSA RIVER BASIN Application of the model Agricultural land, including non-irrigated and irrigated fields 953.8 km² Forests 802.6 km² Pastures 311.6 km² 143 settlements (incl. 5 cities) The density of the urban network 5.9 settlements/100 km² 133 cities are located in the 200 m. buffer zone around rivers The total area of these settlements, constitutes 35.8 % of the total area of settlements in the Rositsa river basin However, some of the most urbanized areas in the basin (cities Sevlievo, Pavlikeni, Suhindol, Apriltsi and Byala cherkva) are located in the buffer zone Significant potential flood risk Roads, the main elements of the transport infrastructure, are built mostly in the floodplains of rivers Lack of drainage systems Enhances the effect of heavy rainfall and cause more frequent occurrence of floods Compared with year 2000, the growth rate of soil sealing is insignificant 9

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CATEGORIES CORINE LAND COVER 2006 (% of total area) CORINE LAND COVER 2000 (% of total area) Water bodies 0,59 0,58 Bare rocks 0,05 0,06 Natural grasslands 1,79 1,91 Green urban areas 0,002 0,002 Land principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of natural vegetation 12,97 13,25 Coniferous forest 0,72 0,52 Industrial or commercial units 0,82 0,84 Mineral extraction sites 0,05 0,05 Complex cultivation patterns 4,13 4,36 Vineyards 0,65 0,78 Sport and leisure facilities 0,03 0,03 Discontinuous urban fabric 4,69 4,65 Non-irrigated arable land 32,01 31,74 Fruit trees and berry plantations 1,35 1,13 Pastures 5,62 5,67 Sparsely vegetated areas 0,01 0,01 Transitional woodland-shrub 4,60 4,40 Moors and heathland 0,13 0,13 Mixed forest 8,96 8,93 Broad-leaved forest 20,83 20,97 Conclusion Minor changes in land use 13

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STATE Historical and future flooding Types of floods Maximum flow ROSITSA RIVER BASIN Application of the model Rositsa river basin is one of the basins in Bulgaria with the highest torrential regimes Catastrophic floods for the region 06.1939, 06.1953, 12.1956, 07.1957, 06.1960, 03.1962, 02.1963, 09.1964, 05.1965, 06.1966, 09.1968, 02.1969, 07.1973, 07.1975, 01.1978 Rositsa river basin is characterized by a maximum module 9,76 m³/s of km² That is a historical maximum for Europe, too. 15

IMPACT Damages Socio-economic consequences Environmental impacts ROSITSA RIVER BASIN Application of the model Negative impact on protected categories of "human health and "economic activity" from historical floods For example, in year 1939 the flood affected: 964 residential buildings, mainly in the village of Gorna Rositsa (450) and Sevlievo (470) In 1858 and 1901 the whole northern part of Sevlievo has been under water Information on human victims 1901 (2 children), 1939 (47 people), etc. In year 1939 the largest number of farm buildings were affected in the upper reaches of the river (Stokite 105, Batoshevo - 77, Gorna Rositsa 43), while large areas of flooded and destroyed agricultural lands were in the lower reaches of Rositsa river (Suhindol - 3000 hectares) 16

Negative impact on protected categories from potential (future) floods AFFECTED PEOPLE FROM FLOODS Settlements within the 200 m. buffer zone from rivers Size of urban area (km 2 ) Settlement area, within the 200 m. buffer zone from rivers (km 2 ) Population Population density, (people/km 2 ) Number of affected people Apriltsi 4.79 3.51 3554 741.96 2604 Byala cherkva 2.17 0.36 2 612 1203.68 433 Pavlikeni 7.2 1.84 26342 366.94 675 Sevlievo 10.3 1.5 24065 2336.41 3504 Suhindol 2.7 0.49 3046 1128.14 552 17

POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK IN ROSITSA RIVER BASIN PROTECTED AREAS CRITERIA TOTAL IN THE BUFFER ZONE OF 200 M. % "ECONOMIC ACTIVITY" ENVIRONMENT "CULTURAL HERITAGE" Industry Industrial and commercial units (km 2 ) 18,46 6,14 33.2 Transport infrastructure Length of road network (km) 1038,12 471,62 45.4 Length of rail road network (km) 50,16 9,54 19.0 Agriculture Other agricultural land (km 2 ) 270,28 102,80 38.0 Vineyards (km 2 ) 16,55 4,56 27.5 Non-irrigated arable land (km 2 ) 665,30 148,65 22.3 Orchards (km 2 ) 17,59 5,48 31.2 Pastures (km 2 ) 311,69 113,71 36.5 Irrigated arable land (km 2 ) 18,29 3,42 18.7 Protected areas NATURA 2000 Alexander Stamboliyski dam 100 Rositsa river 100 Archaeological sites 7 1 14.0 18

RESPONSES Measures to prevent, protect and mitigate the negative consequences ROSITSA RIVER BASIN Application of the model So far in the basin are taken only civil engineering measures - safety walls and dikes 19

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Conclusion Essential role in the formation and occurrence of floods in the river basin have driving forces and particular geography of the Rositsa river basin Intensification of torrential processes and flood risk is the result primarily of the ongoing urbanization process in the basin and transport infrastructure associated with the construction of settlements and roads mainly in the 200 m. buffer zone from the river As a result of the influence of forces and pressures, Rositsa river basin experienced the most catastrophic floods in Bulgaria Negative effects from past floods mainly affect the protected categories "human health" and "economic activity" Preliminary assessment of flood risk carried out based on "criteria for horizontal distance/offset indicates that a significant potential risk has "human health" and to a lesser extent to categories of "economic activity" and "environment There is no potential risk for category "cultural heritage"