Energy opportunities in southern Africa Wim Jonker-Klunne Programme Director Energy & Environment Partnership
Introduction Global trends Regional trends Focus on South Africa Conclusions
Global trends
Global trends
Global trends
Global trends
Global trends
Global trends
Regional trends CAPACITY (MW) Feb 2015 country utility installed available operating peak demand Angola ENE 2195 1772 1772 1599 Botswana BPC 892 680 410 610 DRC SNEL 2442 993 1066 1381 Lesotho LEC 74 70 70 150 Malawi ESCOM 351 351 351 326 Mozambique EDM/HCB 2308 2279 2279 830 Namibia NamPower 501 392 354 629 South Africa ESKOM 44158 41074 36000 37661 Swaziland SEC 70 60 55 219 Tanzania TANESCO 1226 1159 823 935 Zambia ZESCO/CEC/LHPC 2246 2204 2175 2287 Zimbabwe ZESA 2145 1555 1555 1589 TOTAL 58608 52589 46910 48216
Regional trends utility country name type capacity MW ESKOM South Africa Medupi coal 738 ESKOM South Africa Ingula hydro 333 IPP South Africa cogen project gas 335 ESKOM South Africa cogen project gas 100 IPP South Africa REIPPP3 renewables 322 TANESCO Tanzania Kinyerezi 1 gas 150 SNEL DRC Inga 1 hydro 110 SNEL DRC Inga 2 hydro 320 ZESCO Zambia Ithezhe Tezhi hydro 120 ZESCO Zambia Lusiwasi hydro 15 IPP Zimbabwe Pungwe hydro 15 IPP Mozambique Ressano Garcia gas 175 IPP Mozambique Kuvanianga gas 30 2763 New generation projects commissioning in 2015
Regional trends 2015 (MW) 2016 (MW) 2017 (MW) 2018 (MW) 2019 (MW) TOTAL (MW) Angola 1280 2271 3551 Botswana 300 300 DRC 430 150 580 Lesotho 0 Malawi 74 300 374 Mozambique 205 40 600 845 Namibia 15 800 815 South Africa 1828 3462 3032 1476 1476 11274 Swaziland 12 12 Tanzania 150 500 1140 300 2090 Zambia 135 300 101 1090 1626 Zimbabwe 15 120 1200 1260 2595 2763 4797 6373 4891 5238 24062
Regional trends Operating Members Only - Reserve Margin, % 18.0 15.0 Best practice reserve margin 11.6 15.6 12.0 9.0 6.3 9.0 6.0 3.0 3.2 - -3.0 2014-0.5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Regional trends DRC 2015: 2 nd DRC Zambia 220 kv Tanzania 2018: ZIZABONA - 330 kv Angola Zambia Zimbabwe Malawi 2018: Mozambique Malawi - 400 kv 2018: Zambia Tanzania-Kenya 400 kv 2018: Morupule Maun 400 kv 2020: MOZISA 400 kv 2020: RSA Botswana - 400 kv Namibia Botswana Mozambique Swaziland 2020: Namibia Angola -400 kv 2020: Orapa Pandamatenga -400 kv 2022: Grand Inga Transmission HVDC/AC 2024: Mozambique STE HVDC/AC South Africa Lesotho
Regional trends DR Congo Tanzania Angola Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Namibia Botswana Mozambique Swaziland 12/15 SADC countries have energy/electricity regulators 80% 10/12 are Members of RERA ORE of Madagascar & Energy Commission of Seychelles are not yet Members of RERA 4 are electricity regulators, 6 are energy regulators & 2 are multi-sector (energy/water) regulators Remaining 3 countries (Botswana, the DRC & Mauritius) are at various sector reform stages South Africa Lesotho
South Africa
South Africa REIPPP renewable energy procurement 4000 MW from 66 bidders 1500 MW of 32 projects operational Window 4 results eminent RfP 1600 MW baseload (December 2014) RfP 800 MW co-generation soon RfP gas generation by June 2015 Grand Inga agreement Nucĺear built?
South Africa
Opportunities Grid connected large scale renewables REIPPP Willing buyer willing seller (with or without wheeling) Small scale renewables Own consumption embedded generation Off grid Grid tied (rooftop PV) Mining Energy efficiency Grid technologies
Regional opportunities Moving away from depending on ESKOM Several countries with strong supporting regulations Off grid electrification
Thank you! More Information: Wim Jonker Klunne Wim.JonkerKlunne@EEPAfrica.org www.eepafrica.org