October 2012 Population Census Data and their Impact on Public Policies 1. INTRODUCTION On 21 September 2012, the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS) published the final results of the population census. The census in Kosovo was conducted during 1-15 April 2011 and this was first census since 30 years. GAP Institute for Advanced Studies analyzed the final data published by KAS. In this publication, GAP analyses the data of the census from two aspects: accuracy of data and their impact on public policies. In this report, we will focus on the following areas on which it is expected that the results of the census will have an impact on the governmental policies: The number of population according to municipalities and the impact of new statistics on defining governmental grants for municipalities, as well as the number of civil servants for each municipality. Population 65 years and over compared with the data of the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (MLSW) for beneficiaries of old age pensions; Data on unemployed compared with the data for unemployed in the Municipal Labor Centers; The overall number of population compared with the voters lists; and, Census data compared with the governmental policies regarding minorities. The aim of this analysis, through some examples, is to show the potential impact of the data from the census in making public policies.
2. THE NEW DATA FROM THE CENSUS AND THE IMPACT ON GOVERNMENTAL GRANTS ALLOCATED TO MUNICIPALITIES The formula for allocating the governmental grant to municipalities is based on four criteria: size of their population, size of their minority population, whether the majority of their population is composed of national minorities; and the size of their geographical area. 1 The calculation for the number of the population for each municipality and the number of minority population is based mostly on the data from OSCE and the Kosovo Agency of Statistics, which were not verified accordingly. Following the decentralization process and the 2009 local elections, some municipalities territory and population was contracted, but the operational governmental grants for these municipalities remained unaffected. The law on local government finance leaves open the possibility, following the new data from the census, to modify the data to be used to allocate the operating grant for municipalities and distribute the grant as needed. 2 Table 1: The difference between the data presented in Annex I of the Law on Local Government Finance on the overall number of population and minorities compared with the census data Municipal ity Number of population Number of according to population the Law on according to Local the census Government Finance Differen ce Number of minorities Number of according to minorities the Law on according to Local the census Government Finance Differ ence Deçan 40.400 40.019-381 294 550 +256 Gjakovë 115.000 94.556-20.444 6.013 6679 +666 Gllogoc 60.000 58.531-1.469 0 45 +45 Gjilan 100.348 90.178-10.170 4.058 2264-1794 1Art 24, paragraph 4, Law No. 03/ L- 049 on Local Government Finance. Source: http://gazetazyrtare.rks-gov.net/documents/t- Ligji%20p%C3%ABr%20financat%20e%20pushtetit%20lokalshqip%20i%20lekturuar%2007.05.pdf. 2Art 35, paragraph 1, Law No. 03/ L- 049 on Local Government Finance. Source: http://gazetazyrtare.rks-gov.net/documents/t- Ligji%20p%C3%ABr%20financat%20e%20pushtetit%20lokalshqip%20i%20lekturuar%2007.05.pdf. 2
Dragash 35.000 33.997-1.003 12.935 13.559 +624 Istog 44.000 39.289-4.711 2.646 3.085 +439 Kaçanik 33.000 33.409-409 4 36 +32 Klinë 44.000 38.496-5.504 1.863 1241-622 Fushë K. 33.682 34.827 + 1.145 3.730 4511 +781 Kamenicë 49.581 36.085-13.196 4.670 1864-2.806 Mitrovicë 3 90.000 71.909-18.091 0 2199 +2.199 Leposaviq 4 - - - - - - Lipjan 69.115 57.605-11.510 4.952 3112-1.840 Novobërdë 9.899 6.729-3.170 2.785 3192 +407 Obiliq 26.000 21.519-4.481 3.360 1655-1.705 Rahovec 63.000 56.208-6.792 1.953 944-1009 Pejë 115.000 96.450-18.550 12.650 8.334-4316 Podujevë 117.000 88.499-28.501 735 849 +114 Prishtinë 388.561 198.897-189.664 4.961 4146-815 Prizren 214.963 177.781-37.182 30.077 31.682 +1.605 Skenderaj 56.000 50.858-5.142 366 109-257 Shtime 28.000 27.324-676 560 858 +298 Shtërpcë 11.000 6.949-4.051 3.438 3167 +271 Suharekë 80.000 59.722-20.278 471 575 +104 Ferizaj 111.000 108.610-2.390 3.367 4193 +826 Viti 46.458 46.987 + 529 293 258-35 Vushtrri 75.000 69.870-5.130 2.615 960-1655 Zhubin P. - - - - - - Zveçan - - - - - - Malishevë 52.000 54.613 + 2.613 28 54 +26 Hani i E. 10.000 9.403-597 0 44 +44 Mamushë 6.000 5.507-493 0 820 - Junik 9.600 6.084-3.516 0 4 - Kllokoti 4.542 2.556-1.986 1.205 763 - Graçanicë 18.642 10.675-7.967 2.670 2517-153 Ranillug 4.955 3.866-1.089 0 170 - Partesh 5.217 1.787-3.430 0 0 0 The table above shows that the biggest difference on the population data appears in the following municipalities: Prishtina (difference of 189.664 residents), Prizren (difference of 37.182), Podujeva (28.501), Gjakova (20.444), Suhareka (20.278), etc. Only in three municipalities, the census results showed that the number of population is bigger than the data used by the Ministry of Finance to calculate the allocation of grants. All other municipalities have less population than it was calculated. The census was not conducted in three municipalities in north of Kosovo (Leposaviq, Zubin Potok, and Zveçan). In order to elicit the data, on how much the grants for each municipality should be, following the census results, for the municipalities in the north of 3 Mitrovica was specified only as the southern part for the census and allocation of grants. 4 Leposaviq, Mamushë, Zveqan, Shtërpcë, Graqanicë, Partesh, Ranillug. 3
Kosovo, we have estimated the number of population and the number of minority communities based on the average increase or decrease of these numbers in other minority populated municipalities in Kosovo. 5 This assumption naturally would not provide accurate data, but since we lack the data on the number of population in these municipalities, we have applied this method with the aim of preserving the formula that is used to calculate the overall grants for municipalities. The total sum that was allocated as overall grants for the northern municipalities for 2011 was around 4 million Euros (around 3.6% of the total amount of the overall grant for Kosovo s municipalities). The lack of data for these three municipalities will cause problems in allocating the overall grants for the municipalities in Kosovo, since it affects the overall participation of each municipality in the total overall grant for a certain year. Based on the Law on Local Government Finance, the amount of the General Grant is 10% of the central government revenues, excluding revenues from the sale of assets, other extraordinary revenues, dedicated revenues and proceeds from borrowing. After a lump-sum amount of 140,000 Euros for each municipality, minus 1 euro for each member of the population, the remainder is allocated in proportion with size of the population (89%), size of the minority population (3%), whether a majority of their population is composed of national minorities (2%) and size of their physical area (6%). Table 2: Grant for Kosovo municipalities based on the data so far (column 1), grant modeled based on KAS data based on census (2) and the difference between the two in percentage points (3) and value in Euro (4). Municipalities 1 2 3 4 The overall Difference grant following in % the census (in Euros) The overall grant according to the Law on Local Government Finance (in Euros) Difference in Euro Deçan 2.107.651 2.483.863 15% +376.211,94 Dragash 2.309.923 2.109.601-9% (200.321,54) Ferizaj 5.246.176 6.629.482 21% 1.383.305,55 Fushë K. 1.774.878 2.371.406 25% 596.528,42 Gjakovë 5.615.326 5.933.679 5% 318.353,42 Gjilan 4.837.680 5.470.308 12% 632.627,77 Drenas 2.878.599 3.531.997 18% 653.398,30 Graçanicë 1.374.193 1.431.084 4% 56.890,57 5 The average was calculated for the following municipalities: Graçanica, Kllokot, Mamusha, Novobërda, Ranillug and Shtërpce, and proportionally it was applied for the three municipalities that were not included in the census. 4
Han i E. 633.502 686.672 8% 53.169,55 Istog 2.395.202 2.415.593 +1% 20.391,12 Junik 607.304 492.549-23% (114,755,32) Kaçanik 1.710.256 2.076.614 +18% 366.357,56 Kamenicë 2.628.796 2.318.469-13% (310.326,95) Klinë 2.246.522 2.428.496 +7% 181.974,33 Kllokot 459.838 441.515-4% (18.323,31) Leposaviq 1.695.738 1.200.563-41% (495.174,51) Lipjan 3.470.269 3.624.123 +4% 153.853,61 Malishevë 2.604.566 3.305.512 +21% 700.945,64 Mamushë 526.850 852.210 +38% 325.359,52 Mitrovicë 5.894.989 4.409.158-34% (1.485.830,60) Novobërdë 957.516 861.146-11% (96.370,29) Obiliq 1.421.744 1.464.938 +3% 43.193,78 Partesh 445.793 376.152-19% (69.641,04) Pejë 5.829.270 5.726.357-2% (102.913,08) Podujevë 5.484.706 5.305.821-3% (178.884,57) Prishtinë 17.137.525 11.856.275-45% (5.281.250,13) Prizren 10.315.732 10.437.801 +1% 122.069,21 Rahovec 3.030.338 3.440.183 +12% 409.845,13 Ranillugë 494.957 642.813 +23% 147.855,67 Shtërpcë 1.025.591 907.802-13% (117.788,54) Shtime 1.447.733 1.763.262 +18% 315.528,53 Skenderaj 2.827.994 3.090.652 +8% 262.658,32 Suharekë 3.756.559 3.626.162-4% (130.396,65) Viti 2.360.435 2.873.542 +18% 513.107,01 Vushtrri 4.192.527 4.232.187 +1% 39.659,61 Zhubin P. 1.324.350 1.001.837-32% (322.513,29) Zveçan 1.138.596 1.043.641-9% (94.954,65) Mitrovica V. 1.346.160 114.209.624 114.209.624 The table above shows that the Municipality of Prishtina will be damaged the most as it is expected to receive 5.2 million Euros less in governmental grants following the next year. The other municipalities will not suffer any major decrease of the governmental grant. Following Prishtina, we have Mitrovica, Kamenica, Suhareka, Shtërpce, Dragash, etc. Whereas the municipality that will benefit the biggest increase is the municipality of Ferizaj with 1.3 million Euros of additional grants. Following Ferizaj, increased grants will go to the municipalities of Drenas, Gjilan, Kaçanik, Lipjan, etc. 5
3. THE CENSUS DATA AND ITS IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOCAL ADMINISTRATION The KAS data on the number of population according to municipalities bind the Government of Kosovo and municipalities to review the number of employees in the local administration. In 2008, the Government of Kosovo established an Inter-Ministerial Working Group to define the criteria on the size of the municipal administration. After months of work, this Inter-Ministerial group came out with a report on the number of civil servants for each municipality. The Government of Kosovo adopted the report on the Inter-Ministerial Group on 3 December 2008, through the decision 10.46. 6 The decision of the Government of Kosovo sets two criteria on the size of the local administration: 1. Basic criteria: all municipalities, regardless of their size, for their functioning, based on obligations arising from legislation, require a minimum threshold of 55 employees; 2. Supplementary criteria: - The municipalities of the Republic of Kosovo that have over 100.000 inhabitants should have an administrative officer serving 620 citizens. - Other municipalities that have less than 100.000 inhabitants should have an administrative officer that serves 780 citizens. Based on this formula, GAP Institute compared the latest census data for municipalities with the number of employees in municipal administration. Based on this comparison, over 70% of the municipalities have an overload of local administrations with civil servants. The municipalities with most surplus staff are Prishtina with 408 more staff than the governmental decision foresees, Gjilan with 221, Mitrovica with 229, Gjakova with 193, Kamenica with 154, etc. However, the municipalities that need to employ staff are mostly the municipalities that were established following the 2009 local elections, which based on the basic criteria of the Government decision, should have at least 55 employees each. 6 Decision of the Government of the Republic of Kosovo No. 10/46 dated 03.12.2008. Source: http://www.kryeministri-ks.net/repository/docs/vendimet_e_mbledhjes_se_46- te_te_qeverise_2008.pdf 6
Table 3: Size of local administration in proportion with the number of population and the Government decision 10/46 of 3 December 2008. Municipalit y Number of populati on followin g the census Number of employees in municipal administrations during years* 2008 2009 2011 2012 Number of employees that municipal administrations should have according to Government Decision Differe nce in 2012 Deçan 40.019 108 104 120 123 55 + 68 Gjakovë 94.556 265 255 313 314 121 + 193 Drenas 58.531 131 121 125 137 75 + 62 Gjilan 90.178 269 258 339 336 116 +220 Dragash 33.997 101 120 141 140 55 + 85 Istog 39.289 141 140 158 158 55 + 103 Kaçanik 33.409 105 107 127 127 55 + 72 Klinë 38.496 126 121 136 134 55 + 79 Fushë K. 34.827 134 139 142 143 55 + 88 Kamenicë 36.085 184 177 206 209 55 + 154 Mitrovicë 71.909 253 248 316 321 92 + 229 Leposaviq** - 97 97 129 129 - - Lipjan 57.605 186 184 204 186 74 + 112 Novobërdë 6.729 30 44 61 61 55 + 6 Obiliq 21.519 87 87 85 85 55 + 30 Rahovec 56.208 155 148 171 177 72 + 106 Pejë 96.450 291 266 293 336 123 +212 Podujevë 88.499 228 233 252 258 113 + 145 Prishtinë 198.897 699 651 705 728 320 + 408 Prizren 177.781 295 286 331 341 287 + 54 Skenderaj 50.858 196 192 200 209 66 + 143 Shtime 27.324 85 66 75 91 55 + 36 Shtërpcë 6.949 55 60 69 84 55 + 29 Suharekë 59.722 147 147 155 155 77 + 78 Ferizaj 108.610 233 231 295 289 175 + 114 Viti 46.987 160 168 176 182 60 + 122 Vushtrri 69.870 217 209 227 216 90 +126 Zhubin P.** - 83 83 223 223 - - Zveçan** - 30 30 56 56 - - Malishevë 54.613 125 125 146 155 70 + 85 Hani i E. 9.403 20 32 49 50 55-5 Mamushë 5.507 17 31 38 44 55-11 Junik 6.084 11 27 52 54 55-1 Kllokoti 2.556 - - 45 45 55-10 Graçanicë 10.675 - - 53 52 55-3 Ranillug 3.866 - - 51 50 55-5 Partesh 1.787 - - 30 42 55-13 Totali 6032 7 2921 3111 *Data obtained from the Department of Civil Service Administration, MPA **Incomplete data for municipalities Leposaviq, Zvecan, Zubin Potok. +/- 7 From the total of 6032 officers, the civil servants that are found in the lists of employees in Leposavic, Zhubin Potok and Zvecan were not counted. 7
Based on this formula and the data from the census, there are a total of 3.111 civil servants in the local level that are more than allowed based on the Government decision 10/46 of 3 December 2008. Based on the Kosovo Agency of Statistics, the average monthly salary in Kosovo in 2011 was 368 Euros. 8 Based on this, for a surplus of 3.111 employees, the Kosovo budget pays more than 1.1 million Euros per month or 13.7 million Euros per year. Some of the municipalities in Kosovo, despite the reduction of the number of population and territory, following the decentralization process, continued to increase their local administration. Gjilan makes a good case of this, after a part of the territory and population was detached to establish the new municipality of Partesh and to expand the new municipality of Novoberda. Despite this, the local administration of Gjilan continued to significantly increase. Other similar cases can be found in the municipalities of Kamenica, Lipjan and Prishtina. The decision 10/46 of the Government of Kosovo states that within a period of 20 months from the date of entry into force of the decision, the municipalities should adjust the number of employees in the municipalities with the decision. Since the decision of the Government of Kosovo (December 2008) no data existed for the number of the population in municipalities, the Government of Kosovo should bind the municipalities to take the necessary measures to decrease the number of civil servants in their local administrations. The decrease of the number of the civil servants is also one of the requests of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 9 4. THE CENSUS DATA COMPARED WITH THE VOTERS LIST The issue that raised most reactions and was widely discussed in public was the comparison of data between the voters list and the total number of population. In some cases, the number of voters for municipality surpasses the number of residents in total (this is the case in municipalities of Gjakova, Dragash, Istog, Klina, Novobërda, 8 Kosovo Agency of Statistics. Kosovo in figures 2011. April 2012. p. 10. 9 International Monetary Fund. Republic of Kosovo: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion. Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/cr12180.pdf 8
Graçanica, Kllokot, Partesh, and Ranillug). In some municipalities (Shtëprce, Partesh) the voters list contains half as many names as the total number of population of that municipality. The difference arose due to the difference of the methodology of the creation of lists from the Central Election Commission (CEC) and KAS. The voters list is drafted based on the civil register. The civil register is not in a good condition as deceased persons are note removed from it; people did not register in municipalities where they live, etc. The civil register is compiled with the aim of issuing personal documents and apart from residents in Kosovo, the Kosovo citizens who live abroad are also covered in the register. However, the Kosovo citizens who reside outside the country were not covered by the 2011 census. Table 4: Comparing the census data for municipalities with the CEC data for voters with the right to vote in each municipality Municipality 10 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Difference Number between voters of and Number of populatio population population n over 18 over 18 years years old in the KAS (voters) register (4)=(3)-(1) Registere d voters Column (4) expresse d in % Deçan 37.244 40.019 25.367 11.877 31.89% Gjakovë 97.215 94.556 58.803 38.412 39.51% Drenas 46.657 58.531 35.350 11.307 24.23% Gjilan 87.387 90.178 56.890 30.497 34.90% Dragash 36.658 33.997 22.292 14.366 39.19% Istog 40.778 39.289 24.329 16.449 40.34% Kaçanik 30.308 33.409 20.433 9.875 32.58% Klinë 38.705 38.496 22.833 15.872 41.01% Fushë K. 28.105 34.827 21.624 6.481 23.06% Kamenicë 35.381 36.085 23.433 11.948 33.77% Mitrovicë 11 74.450 71.909 44.817 29.633 39.80% Lipjan 50.374 57.605 34.706 15.668 31.10% 10Without including the three northern municipalities Leposavic, Zubin Potok, Zvecan where the census was not conducted.. 11North Mitrovica was not included in the census, however it is included in the voters list. In the allocation of grants, the Government of Kosovo estimates that the population of north Mitrovica is 20,000 inhabitants. In the average proportion of the whole Kosovo, between the total number of population and population above 18 years old, than we deduct the number 12,384 being the number of voters in north Mitrovica. Consequently, this number is deducted from the number of voters in Mitrovica so that the number is adjusted with the mentioned municipality. 9
Novobërdë 7.936 6.729 4.491 3.445 43.41% Obiliq 21.313 21.549 13.132 8.181 38.39% Rahovec 49.321 56.208 33.874 15.447 31.32% Pejë 93.721 96.450 62.062 31.659 33.78% Podujevë 75.636 88.499 53.192 22.444 29.67% Prishtinë 161.236 198.897 130.067 31.169 19.33% Prizren 144.579 177.781 110.636 33.943 23.48% Skenderaj 49.320 50.858 30.584 18.736 37.99% Shtime 22.313 27.324 15.772 6.541 29.31% Shtërpcë 12.604 6.949 4.638 7.966 63.20% Suharekë 57.617 59.722 35.847 21.770 37.78% Ferizaj 91.876 108.610 66.059 25.817 28.10% Viti 42.882 46.987 27.689 15.193 35.43% Vushtrri 63.300 69.870 43.151 20.149 31.83% Malishevë 44.089 54.613 29.652 14.437 32.75% Junik 5.191 6.084 3.831 1.360 26.20% Mamushë 3.112 5.507 3.159-47 -1.51% Hani i E. 7.943 9.403 5.725 2.218 27.92% Gracanicë 16.825 10.675 7.149 9.676 57.51% Ranillug 4.929 3.866 2.903 2.026 41.10% Partesh 3.694 1.787 1.250 2.444 66.16% Kllokot 2.785 2.556 1.576 1.209 43.41% Total 1.585.484 1.739.825 1.077.316 508.168 32.05% The difference between the voters list and the number of population above 18 years is 508.168 persons. This number is almost as half of the voting population according to KAS and approximately one third of the voters list. The percentage varies from municipality to municipality, where municipalities with a Serbian minority have a tendency to have a larger percentage of voters compared to the population. This difference comprises of the number of persons registered in the civil register who do not live in Kosovo and the number of deceased persons that were not cleared from the voters list. 12 The voters list has become one of the major problems for the conduct of elections. The large number of deceased persons in the list and the low turnout from the diaspora provided a large space for rigging the elections. This is because ballots can be casted on behalf of these persons from the election manipulators. Further, this number 12 According to statistics on mortality published by KAS, during the period 2002 2011 77.843 persons are registered as deceased (without including infant mortality and adding an average for 2000/2001). The percentage of declared mortality is estimated to be around 80%. From these statistics we can calculate that in Kosovo 15.568 persons are deceased but are not removed from the voters list since 2000. This will offer us the number of registered diaspora which is 492.600. But this is not the total number of diaspora, the population below 18 years old in diaspora and the persons who are not registered in the civil register of Kosovo should be added to the total number (therefore we have 492.600 + persons under 18 + persons without Kosovo documents). 10
significantly alters the statistics of participation in elections, which is a very important statistical indicator. However, regardless of the major differences, according to CEC, this institution will continue to use its data for the voters list, considering them more accurate than the census data from KAS. 13 5. KAS AND INSTITUTIONS DATA REGARDING THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED AND PENSIONERS The data from the census differs also from the data that is used by the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare (MLSW). These differences are noticed on at least three aspects: registered unemployed persons, number of pensioners and those on social schemes. a. The unemployment rate The latest data from the census show that out of 1.252.248 inhabitants of Kosovo that are over 15 years old, 508.100 are considered the workforce in Kosovo. Out of which, 280.454 are employed and 227.464 are considered unemployed. However, even the number of employed people and the number of unemployed that is provided by KAS does not match with the data that is offered by other institutions. Whereas KAS states that there are 227.464 unemployed people in Kosovo, the data from MLSW say that the number of unemployed is 325.261. 14 Even the number of those employed persons that comes out from the census differs from the number of employed persons provided by the Trust. According to KAS there are 280.454 employed persons, however the data from the Trust shows that until the end of September 2012, the number of active contributors was 251.009. 13 Statement of the President of CEC Valdete Daka for the Radio Television of Kosovo, 23 September 2012. Source: http://www.rtklive.com/neë/?cid=1&neësid=65244&mf36- waz4611* (most recently checked on 25 September 2012), http://www.telegrafi.com/lajme/gjakova-me-shume-votues-se-banore-2-25187.html (most recently checked on 25 September 2012). 14 Labor and Employment, Annual Report, Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare https://mpms.rksgov.net/portals/0/librat/2011%20raporti%20vjetor%20puna%20dhe%20punesimi.pdf 11
Active contributors are considered all those employees who contributed in the Trust within a year, regardless of the amount of the contribution. This discrepancy of data also shows the high level of informal economy in Kosovo. b. Old age pensions The data from the census also show the number of pensioners in Kosovo, which differs from the data coming from the MLSW. According to KAS, 112.020 people in Kosovo benefit from pensions, out of which 84.694 are persons above 65 years old. The figures from MLSW for the number of pensioners differ from those of KAS. According to MLSW, in the basic pension scheme of old age covered 107.145 pensioners in December 2011. 15 In the pension scheme, also in December 2011, there were 32.415 beneficiaries of pensions. From the scheme of people with disabilities, 18.594 people were benefiting. Early pensions Trepça is provided to 3.833 former miners, whereas 655 persons are currently provided the pension for former member of KPC. In total, there are 162.642 beneficiaries of pensions in Kosovo at the end of 2011, which differs significantly from the figure offered by KAS of 112.020 pensioners. c. Social assistance beneficiaries MLSW apart from pensions also manages the social assistance scheme. There is a discrepancy between the data provided by KAS and those offered by MLSW. According to KAS, there are 84.683 social assistance beneficiaries, whereas according to MLSW, in December 2011 the number of families that are provided social assistance is 34.867 with a total of 151.767 family members. Table 5: The difference between the KAS data compared with those from MLSW and Trust ASK MPMS Trusti Diferenca Unemployment 227.464 325.261-97.797 Employment 280.454-251.009 118.621 Pensioner 112.02 162.642-50.622 Beneficiaries of social aids 84.683 151.767-67.084 15 Annual Activity Report of MLSW 2011 http://mpms.rksgov.net/portals/0/librat/broshura_al_2011.pdf 12
d. Implementation of Labor Law The KAS data for employment are concerning regarding the implementation of the Labor Law. According to KAS, out of 280.454 employees in Kosovo, 54.110 declared that they work more than 40 hours per week, or in other words, 19.2% of employees stated that they work in conditions that are in violation of the Labor Law. According to Labor Law, a full time week lasts 40 hours per week. 16 This data confirms for the first time with validated data that the Labor Law is facing difficulties in implementation. These data should serve the Labor inspectorate and the MLSW in general, to increase their activity regarding the oversight of the implementation of the Labor Law. The discrepancy of figures provided by KAS and those by MLSW regarding the number of unemployment in Kosovo and the number of beneficiaries of social assistance raises the dilemma on which data should the social policies be based in the future. The allocation of the state budget for pensions and the beneficiaries of social assistance so far is based in the data offered by MLSW, which differ significantly by the data provided by KAS. If we take into account the data offered by KAS, the future budget for the categories of pensioners and beneficiaries of social assistance will be significantly lower. 6. DATA ON PERCENTAGES OF MINORITY COMMUNITIES AND THE GOVERNMENT POLICY ON RESERVED SEATS On the basis of estimates made prior to the census, it was considered that Albanians make 92% of the general population, Serbs 5.3%, Roma 1.1%, Turks 0.4% and other 1.2% of the population in Kosovo. 17 Based on these data, the both international and local institutions drafted the formula for the representation of the communities in the Kosovo institutions regarding the reserved seats. Initially this was done in the Constitutional Framework for the Provisional Self- Government (2000), than with the Ahtisaari Package (2007) and finally with the Constitution of Kosovo (2008). 16Article 20 paragraph 2 of the Law no.03/l-212 on Labor. Source: http://gazetazyrtare.rksgov.net/documents/ligji%20i%20punes%20(shqip).pdf 17 These data are the KAS estimate for 2006. Source: Statistical Office of Kosovo. Demographic changes of the Kosovo population 1948-2006. February 2008. 13
Regarding the allocation of seats in the Assembly of Kosovo, the Serbian community in Kosovo and other non-majority communities in Kosovo would have 20 reserved seats in the Assembly during the first two terms following the approval of the Constitution, 10 of which belong to the Serbian Community. Following the first two terms after the approval of the Constitution, the Serbian community and other communities will make efforts to win these seats through elections, however, if the number of seats won through elections is less than the guaranteed seats during the first two terms after the approval of the Constitution, both the Serbian community and other non-majority communities in Kosovo will have the same number of seats (20) as the first two terms after the approval of the Constitution. Apart from the Serbian community that has 10 reserved seats, the Bosnian community has three seats. Regarding the representation of the Serbian community and other non-majority communities in the Government, paragraphs 2 and 4 of article 96 of the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, states that There shall be at least one Minister from the Kosovo Serb Community and one Minister from another Kosovo non-majority Community [...] This article also defines the appointment of another Minister that represents the non-majority community. The same logic is followed also in defining the number of deputy ministers where two deputy ministers will be from the Serb Community and two others from other non-majority communities. Likewise, the same is valid for the deputy ministers if the Government is composed by more than 12 ministries. The latest census data rank the Bosnian community as the biggest minority community in Kosovo with 1.66% representation, followed by the Turkish with 1.05%, RAE 2.06%, Gorani 0.58% and other communities with 0.13%. However, if we estimate that in the three northern municipalities 41.000 Serbs live there, than together with the number of registered Serbs in the other parts of the territory, the composition of the Serb community represents 3.55% of the total population of Kosovo. Although since the establishment of the Kosovo institutions the number of reserved seats in the Assembly and in the Government was never linked with the number of people that these communities in reality represent, the data from the census show that the Serbian community is significantly more represented compared to the other minority communities. 14
7. CONCLUSION The results of population, households and housing census were long awaited for years and are very essential for many reasons, amongst them to design the right public policies. Despite long preparations, dedication of the governmental institutions, the Kosovo Agency of Statistics and international donors, the census process was followed with many irregularities, which were elaborated in many papers and analysis, therefore they are not subject to this analysis. By analyzing the data published by the census, the GAP Institute for Advanced Studies has analyzed some aspects in which the data from the KAS could and should change the design of public policies. GAP has also compared the data from KAS with those that are currently in use by central institutions. Following this analysis, the results show that the governmental grants for municipalities will not be affected significantly, apart from the municipality of Pristina that is expected to lose the most from the amount that is allocated to municipalities each year, whereas the biggest winner of the governmental grant will be the municipality of Ferizaj. The census data for municipalities open the road for the implementation of the decision of the Government of Kosovo (3 December 2008) for the criteria of setting the size of the local administration. Based on this GAP analysis, 70% of the municipalities of Kosovo have their administrations overloaded with staff, when the number of staff is compared with the number of population. In total, the local administration in 37 municipalities in Kosovo has 3.111 more civil servants than allowed by the Government decision no.10/46 of 3 December 2008. This overload of the administration with civil staff costs the budget of Kosovo 1.1 million Euros per month or 13.7 million Euros per year. Further, following the publication of the census results, what has created confusion in the public is the discrepancy of data between KAS and the voters list in municipalities. What has impacted in this discrepancy of data is the difference of methodology between KAS and CEC. Whereas CEC includes the citizens from the diaspora in the voters list, KAS has excluded this category from the census. As a results the voters list contains more names than the data from KAS. The discrepancy of data is noticeable also in the social data: labor, pensioners and social cases. Whereas the MLSW has a detailed list of 15
beneficiaries of social assistance, pensions and registered unemployed persons, the data from KAS provides significantly lower figures than those provided by MLSW on which basis over 300 million Euros per year are allocated. Correcting these data will affect more just social rights. Regarding the ethnic composition of the population, KAS data emphasize the flaws of a policy for more than ten years in Kosovo: the principle of reserved seats for minority communities. If we observe the policy for reserved seats for communities, established initially with the Constitutional Framework for the Provisional Self- Government, than with the Ahtisaari Package and the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, it is noticeable that the Serb community is unjustly privileged much more than other communities. Whereas the Serb community represents 3.55% of the population in Kosovo this percentage does not differ much from the percentage of the other communities, the Serb community has much more privileges in the Government, Assembly and other institutions compared with other communities. The allocation of reserved seats for minority communities was never correlated with the percentage of the ethnic population that they represent in Kosovo. These examples show that the data from the population census have filled a gap for statistics in Kosovo, however, these data are volatile and do not represent credible data on which state policies on budget, social issues, administration, etc. can be based. 16
Institute for Advanced Studies GAP is a local think-tank founded in October 2007 in Kosovo. GAP s main purpose is to attract professionals by creating a professional research and development environment commonly found in similar institutions in Western countries. This will include providing Kosovars with an opportunity to research, develop, and implement projects that would strengthen Kosovo society. A priority of the Institute is to mobilize professionals to address the country s pressing economic, political and social challenges. GAP s main objectives are to bridge the gap between government and people, and to bridge the gap between problems and solutions.