Kent Business Barometer December Q4 1
Contents BREXIT- Business sentiment 3 Summary of findings 4 Marketing update 5 Visitor Attractions: monthly performance 7 Visitor Attractions: quarterly performance 10 Serviced Accommodation: monthly performance 13 Visitor Information Centres: monthly performance 16 Business Tourism: monthly performance 19 Cross-channels carriers: quarterly performance 21 Other news: national picture 23 Glossary 25 2
BREXIT- Business Sentiment With March 2019 fast approaching, our quarterly attraction survey looked to also capture business sentiment surrounding the potential impact of BREXIT, highlighting top concerns and opportunities, the possible impact on domestic and inbound markets, as well as the effect on employment and staff retention. Attractions were asked what impact they felt BREXIT would have on their business overall. The results show that over half of the attractions (52%) thought there would be no impact, followed by 46% expressing they thought it may have a negative impact on their business. However, in terms of having a positive impact, only 2% of attractions felt this was the case. Top 5 concerns affecting future business performance Negative perceptions around ease of access (35%) Poor transport network (38%) Strength of the pound/exchange rates (42%) Traffic disruptions (56%) UK economic climate (58%) When comparing the above results with those from the previous quarterly survey (September ), the results show that the top three concerns remain unchanged. However, the number of attractions who selected poor transport network saw an increase, being now in the top five concerns. With regards to negative perceptions around ease of access, although still in the top five, this saw a decrease of -7% compared to the results of the previous quarterly survey. Alongside this, more businesses generally indicated concerns, with the number of businesses that felt there were no real concerns decreasing by -9%. In terms of Brexit s impact on employment and staff retention, half of the respondents were not sure what to expect (50%). 33% believed that BREXIT will have no impact on employment and 17% selected that it would, stressing their reliance on European staff members, both permanent and seasonal. To note that the percentage of respondents who believe Brexit will impact employment has increased compared to the data collected in September. With regards to other comments, responses show a strong sense of concern surrounding potential traffic disruptions, particularly around ease of access via the Port of Dover. Alongside this, attractions also highlighted the issue surrounding the UK portraying a negative perception of welcome to overseas markets. Looking at potential opportunities, businesses stated that the potentially negative perception of welcome could possibly be outweighed by favourable exchange rates, resulting in an increase of inbound visitors to the UK. Lastly, attractions also cited that due to a potential period of economic uncertainly, domestic markets may look to spend less. Do you feel any of the following markets will be negatively affected by BREXIT? 3
Key Findings At the start of the fourth quarter, Kent s visitor attractions saw a decline in visitor footfall compared with the same period the previous year, with attractions predominantly citing partial closures and a decrease in the number of school group visits. Yet, the second month of the fourth quarter saw a healthy increase in visitor footfall due to factors such as increased marketing efforts, an increase in event attendance and membership visits. Looking at December specifically, attractions saw a significant increase in footfall of +11.7% compared to December 2017, citing a popular Christmas offering, in addition to an increase in school group visits compared to December 2017. Wildlife attractions/zoos/farms fared most positively in terms of footfall, seeing a +21.5% increase compared to December 2017. Serviced accommodation providers saw an increase of +3% in occupancy levels compared to December 2017, with RevPAR also registering an increase (+0.9%). 87% of visitors to attractions were domestic and 13% were from overseas. Out of the overseas visitors, 45% reported visitors from other countries including, Japan and Australia as their most prevalent markets. Looking to VICs, during December, centres reported a -16.3% decrease in the number in visitor footfall, predominantly due to reduced opening times. However, the number of email/postal enquires saw an increase of +14.1% compared to December 2017. *Please note this figure is based on a small sample size and therefore small changes in figures reported may cause fluctuations 4
Visit Kent Marketing Update Digital In December, the Visit Kent Twitter channel gained 174 new followers, taking the total to 45,977. On Facebook, we generated 166,158 impressions and posted 42 times throughout the month. On Instagram, we gained 135 new followers, taking the total to 15,573, with highlights including Tuesday Takeover posts and Sunday Street Picture posts. On the Visit Kent website, we received 64,796 sessions. The average dwell time was 1.20 minutes and we saw an average of 2.05 pages viewed per session. Website 64,796 sessions 1.20 average dwell time 2.05 pages viewed per session PR In December, we sent out two press releases Raising a Toast to Kent Wine and On the first day of Christmas, Visit Kent sent to me. Our press coverage for December reached 585,304 people. Social Media 45,977 followers Travel Trade During December, the team were busy planning Kent s presence at Vakantiebuers (taking place in January 2019), led by our Gourmet Garden Trails theme. Kent will also be represented through several other largescale Interreg projects attending trade shows in 2019, so time was spent designing the stand and booking space for these. The team also started work on a VisitBritain fam trip, due to take place in May 2019 for Dutch and Belgian operators. 20,260 followers 15,573 followers 5
Visitor Attractions 6
Visitor Attractions Visitor numbers December 2017/ 2017 % change 249,846 279,150 +11.7% Range of performance 74% of Kent attractions were up this month, ranging from +1.6% up to +165% up, while 26% of attractions reported a reduced footfall, ranging from -2.2% down to -36.5% down. Attractions up Attractions down 74% 26% Performance according to cost December 2017/ Charging Free +17.5% -3.7% Performance according to attraction size December 2017/ 20,000 or less 20,001-50,000 50,001-200,000 Over 200,000 +4.4% -4.7% +10.5% +13.7% Performance according to attraction type December 2017/ Museums / Art Galleries Historic Houses / Castles Wildlife attractions/zoos/farms Other -2.1% +13.6% +21.5% +13.1% Performance according to attraction location December 2017/ Urban Rural Coastal +12.9% +14.3% +3.3% 7
Visitor numbers for the year to date (YTD) Month 2017 % change for month YTD Totals 2017 YTD Totals % change for YTD January 172,754 159,146 Down 7.9% 172,754 159,146 Down 7.9% February 258,018 272,090 Up 5.5% 430,772 431,236 Up 0.1% March 313,449 293,629 Down 6.3% 744,221 724,865 Down 2.6% April 596,890 490,499 Down 17.8% 1,341,111 1,215,364 Down 9.4% May 553,087 562,209 Up 1.6% 1,894,198 1,777,573 Down 6.2% June 415,417 435,180 Up 4.8% 2,309,615 2,212,753 Down 4.2% July 670,972 591,686 Down 11.8% 2,980,587 2,804,439 Down 5.9% August 758,349 722,933 Down 4.7% 3,738,936 3,527,372 Down 5.7% September 470,365 484,063 Up 2.9% 4,209,301 4,011,435 Down 4.7% October 502,669 474,489 Down 5.6% 4,711,970 4,485,924 Down 4.8% November 236,089 248,110 Up 5.1% 4,948,059 4,734,034 Down 4.3% December 249,846 279,150 Up 11.7% 5,197,905 5,013,184 Down 3.6% December* 249,846 336,942 Up 34.9% 5,198,105 4,891,338 Down 5.9% *Please note: The figures in the blue part of the table are the baseline figures for all calculations found within this section. The data reported here is strictly like for like, excluding figures for attractions that reported they were closed this month or the same month the previous year, or those attractions that have recently begun contributing and cannot provide figures for the previous year. The figures in the green row include figures from all attractions. 8
Factors affecting visitor attractions Origin of visitors to attractions Positive Improved marketing efforts Increase in visitor numbers due to popular Christmas offering During December, 87% of visitors to attractions were domestic, 5% were long haul and 8% were European. Out of the overseas visitors, 36% of attractions reported guests from France as being their most prevalent market, with 45% reporting visitors from other countries including, Japan and Australia as being their most prevalent markets. A larger number of group school visits compared to December 2017 Germany 5% Negative Certain attractions were closed over the Christmas period Other 45% France 36% Particular attractions did not hold certain events that took place previously in December 2017 Some attractions were partially closed for planned refurbishments Netherlands 14% Germany France Netherlands Other Graph showing the most prevalent overseas visitors to Kent attractions in December 9
Visitor Attractions: Quarterly performance At the start of the fourth quarter, Kent s visitor attractions saw a decline in footfall compared with the same period the previous year, with attractions predominantly citing partial closures and a decrease in the number of school group visits, as having negatively impacted performance. However, during November attractions saw an increase of +5.1%, followed by an even stronger performance in December, when attractions experienced an increase in visitor footfall of +11.7%, due to a popular Christmas offering and an increase in the number of school group visits. Looking at the performance for the fourth quarter as a whole, attractions saw a slight increase of +1.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Nationally, according a report published by VisitEngland (looking at the number of day visits to GB and England), the volume of day visits to England decreased by -6%, compared with the same quarter last year. Hence, in comparison to these results, the county displays a positive performance. Quarterly visitor numbers to Attractions- Oct-Dec Month 2017 % change October 502,669 474,489-5.6% November 236,089 248,110 +5.1% December 249,846 279,150 +11.7% 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 Total 990,621 1,001,749 +1.1% 100,000 0 October November December 2017 Graph showing the performance of Kent visitor attractions during the Q4 of compared to the same quarter the previous year. 10
Visitor Attractions: Quarterly performance Each quarter visitor attractions are asked a series of questions looking at performance, expectations and business concerns. When looking at overall performance for the last quarter of compared to 2017, 59% attractions stated their performance had increased or was about the same. When asked about the performance of their coach market, 56% stated this remained unchanged, compared to the same quarter the previous year. Top business concerns of the fourth quarter predominantly included the UK economic climate, alongside traffic disruptions and the strength of the pound/exchange rates. New to this quarterly survey, attractions were also asked how their forward bookings are performing compared to this time last year, with 79% of respondents stating that forward bookings are about the same. Lastly, attractions were also asked about their expectations for performance over the next quarter, to which 95% stated they either expected an increase or this to remain the same. Attractions performance for the 4 th quarter of compared to 2017 Attractions performance in the 4th quarter compared to the same % period last year Much Better (up by more than 10%) 10% Better (up by 5-10%) 10% Slightly Better (Up by 1-5%) 21% About the same 18% Slightly Worse (Down by 1-5%) 26% Worse (Down by 5-10%) 15% How has your coach market been this quarter compared to last year? Coach market up Coach market same Coach market down 19% 56% 25% How has your forward bookings been this quarter compared to last year? Decrease in forward Forward booking are Increase in forward bookings about the same bookings 6% 79% 15% Expectations for the next quarter Expectations for the next quarter % Much better (up by more than 10%) 7% Better (up by 5-10%) 10% Slightly Better (Up by 1-5%) 56% About the same 22% Slightly worse (down by 1% - 5%) 5% Top business concerns for Kent s attractions overall in the 4 th quarter of Top business concerns UK economic climate Traffic disruptions Strength of the pound/exchange rates 11
Kent Accommodation PETER KOCIHA Photography 12
Serviced Accommodation According to figures from STR Global, for 69 larger and chain hotels, Kent accommodation providers experienced an average occupancy of 69.8%, experiencing a +3% increase in occupancy compared to figures seen in December 2017. In Kent, revenue per available room saw an increase of +0.9%, compared to figures recorded in the same month last year, in addition to the average daily rate which saw an slight decrease of -2.1% compared to December 2017. Year on year room occupancy comparison (%) Kent December 2017 December December 17/18 Occupancy 67.7% 69.8% +3% This year so far (%) Kent Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Occupancy 60.1% 68.5% 69.1% 75.4% 80.3% 81.9% July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Occupancy 87.1% 87.1% 82.8% 79.3% 74.5% 69.8% A map showing the locations of serviced accommodation providers that contribute monthly to the Kent Business Barometer through STR Global. 13
Serviced Accommodation Year on year average daily rate comparison (%) Kent December 2017 December December 17/18 ADR 54.20 53.05-2.1% Year on year revenue per available room comparison (%) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Overall Percent Change Kent December 2017 December December 17/18 0.2 0.0 Year To Date Running 12 Months RevPAR 36.69 37.01 +0.9% Occupancy ADR RevPAR Graph showing the overall percentage change in occupancy, average daily rate and revenue available per room both year to date and running 12 months. Please note: With regards to reporting on self-catering accommodation occupancy figures, due to a change in sample and changes to national level reporting, we are currently reviewing the data collection process to get a better understanding of self-catering trends in the county. 14
Visitor Information Centres 15
Visitor Information Centres Visitor information centres (VICs) experienced a -16.3% decrease in visitor footfall compared to December 2017. On average, 88% of visitors to VICs were domestic and 12% were from overseas. Out of overseas visitors, 43% of VICs reported that their most prevalent visitors were from France, with 43% of VICs stating their most prevalent visitors were from Germany. The number of calls received saw a -6.7% decrease, however the number of email/postal enquires saw an increase of +14.1% compared to December 2017. Factors cited to have influenced performance negatively included reduced opening times compared to December 2017. VICs performance December /2017 Name of VIC Footfall 2017 Footfall % change Thanet 3,348 3,412 +1.9% Ashford 192 409 +113% Edenbridge 14 3-78.6% Canterbury 17,788 17,511-1.6% Dover 2,377 1,908-19.7% Faversham 1,254 1,282 +2.2% Gravesham 392 535 +36.5% Sandwich - - - Maidstone 2,838 2,987 +5.3% Medway 29,275 20,055-31.5% KENT 57,478 48,102-16.3% Please note: These figures serve as a notification of visitor numbers, but do not take into account any changes in location, staffing levels, or opening hours. Centres cannot be compared with each other, only with their own performance. Top countries of origin of overseas visitors Netherlands 14% Germany 43% France Germany Netherlands France 43% Graph showing the percentage of most prevalent overseas visitors to VIC s in Kent in December 16
Visitor Information Centres: Quarterly performance VICs Performance in the 4 th quarter of compared to 2017 VIC performance in the 4 th quarter compared to the same % period last year Much better (up by more than 10%) 11% Better (up by 5-10%) 11% Slightly Better (Up by 1-5%) 11% About the same 33% Slightly Worse (Down by 1-5%) 22% Worse (Down by 5-10%) 11% Top business concerns for VICs overall in the 4th quarter of UK economic climate VICs expectations for the next quarter VIC expectations for the next quarter % Better (up by 5-10%) 22% Slightly Better (Up by 1-5%) 44% About the same 22% Worse (down by 5-10%) 11% Strength of the pound/exchange rates 17
Business Tourism 18
Business Tourism In December, the number of conferences saw an increase of +118% when compared to the same period the previous year. Alongside this, the number of other events saw a slight decrease of -0.9% When looking at the average conference length, the majority of conferences (67%) took place for 1 day Performance according to event type, % change December 17/18 Conferences Other events Weddings +118% -0.9% n/a Average conference length Half a day 1 day 2 days 3+ days 26% 67% 3% 4% Average daily delegate rate 17 and under 18 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 50 29% 29% 29% 14% n/a Origin of delegates Kent London Rest of the UK Overseas 97% 1% 1% 0.3% * Please note this is based on a small sample size 19
Cross-Channel Carriers 20
Cross-Channel Carriers Cross-channel carriers saw a +3% increase in the number of passengers in final quarter of, when compared to figures seen in the same period the previous year The number of cars increased by +2.6% when compared to the same quarter in 2017, in addition to the number of coaches which saw a healthy increase of +5.7% when compared to Q4 of 2017. Quarter 4 October December totals Passengers Cars Coaches 2017 % change 2,975,859 3,064,927 +3% 771,912 791,092 +2.6% 19,048 20,140 +5.7% +3% increase in passengers 21
Other News 22
Other News VisitEngland GB Day visits : December GB & England Tourism Day Visits Summary The volume of day visits in Great Britain in the three months to December decreased by -5% to 417 million when compared with the same period last year The value of those visits remained static at 16.2 billion. For the calendar year, GB level volume also decreased by -5% to 1.7 billion in but the value of visits increased by +2% to 63.8 billion Looking at England, volume decreased by -6% to 351 million visits in the three months to December, but value was static at 13.3 billion compared to 2017 The calendar year volume of day visits in England decreased by -5% to 1.4 billion in. Value however increased by +4% to 53.0 billion compared to 2017 3+ Hour Day Visits Summary 3+ hour day visits in Great Britain for the three months to December decreased by -6% to 677 million compared to the same period in 2017 The value of these visits increased by +2% 23.1 billion For the calendar year, volume is down by -5% to 2.8 billion visits but value increased by +4% to 91.2 billion in In England, volume decreased by -7% to 563 million in the three months to December. The value of these visits decreased, by -3%, to 18.5 billion For the calendar year, volume of day visits in England decreased by -5% to 2.3 billion in but value increased by +5% to 75.6 billion compared to 2017 To view the full report click here 23
VisitEngland Occupancy Survey: November results Summary of Results Room occupancy in November increased by +1% to 79% whilst bedspace occupancy increased by +2% to 55% when compared to November 2017 In November there was an increase of +2.0% in room supply and an increase of +3.2% in demand when compared to the same month in 2017 RevPar, which is the total room revenue divided by the total number of available rooms, increased by +3% in November to 77.26 compared to the previous year City/large town room occupancy increased by +1% to 81% whilst bedspace occupancy increased by +1% to 55%. Seaside room occupancy increased by +2% to 71%, whilst bedspace occupancy increased by +2% to 52%. Small town room occupancy increased by +1% to 71% and increased by +1% for bedspace occupancy to 51%, whilst countryside room occupancy increased by +1% to 62% and bedspace occupancy increased by +1% to 42% Looking at occupancy rates by establishment size, establishments with 101+ rooms were the only type to increase in both room and bedspace occupancy levels, increasing by +1% for both measures Looking at occupancy rates by region, the biggest shift came from Greater London, who increased by +3% in room occupancy and +2% in bedspace occupancy. East Midlands saw the next greatest increase in room occupancy levels, increasing by +2%, and the region also rose by +1% in bedspace occupancy compared to November 2017 To view the full report click here 24
Glossary VICs- Visitor Information Centres CTR- Click through rate AVE- Advertising Value Equivalent GTOs- Group Travel Organisers DMOs- Destination Management Organisations OP- On par ADR- Average Daily rate RevPAR- Revenue per available room YTD- Year to date 25
Business Barometer Contacts If you would like to be part of the Business Barometer, or have any questions on its content, please contact Ruby Berkeley-Cornner- ruby.berkeley-cornner@visitkent.co.uk Previous reports To view our previous Business Barometer reports and other research resources please visit- www.visitkentbusiness.co.uk Acknowledgements If you wish to use any figures or information contained within this report, please acknowledge the source as Visit Kent Business Barometer, December. Thank you. 26