Report on Marine Insurance Premium 23 and 24 IUMI 25 Amsterdam Facts & Figures Committee Tore Forsmo, Managing Director Astrid Seltmann, Analyst The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway Thanks also to Fédération Française des Sociétés d Assurances (FFSA) and the International Underwriting Association of London (IUA)
2.5 y 19.5 y 19.8 y World Merchant Fleet by type of ship of 3gt and over As at January 1 st 25 number of ships in share of the World Reported Fleet, growth rate 2-25(%) and average age Reefer ships 2.9% (-13.%) Ro-Ro cargo 3.% (+6.5%) Special Ships 3.% (+8.4%) Oil Tankers 19.2% (+6.3%) WORLD REPORTED FLEET Total number : 39,932 ships increased by + 2.6 % on the period Average age : 19.1 years 17.7 years General cargo 31.8% (-14.1%) 22.4 years 22.2 years 1.8 years 17.9 y 16. y 15.4 years Chemical tankers 3.3% (+1.4%) Liquefied gas 2.9% (+1.%) Bulk carriers 15.5% (+7.4%) Passengers 1.% (+6.7%) Container ships 8.1% (+32.1%) Ore/Bulk/Oil.4% (-27.%) Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Merchant Reported Fleet by type of ships 3gt and over As at January 1st, 25 Deadweight and growth rate 2-25 9, 8, + 56.7% 8% 6% 7, 6,, + 13.7% + 8.3% + 31.5% + 2.9% + 13.1% + 16.1% + 7.2% + 16.6% 4% 2% 4, 3, 2, 1, - 336,759 Oil Tankers 9,114 Chemical tankers 38,849-36.1% 22,526 1,318 Liquefied gas Bulk carriers Ore/Bulk/Oil 99,19 Container ships - 1.1% - 17.8% 888,35 7,34 5,933 6,637 8,31 1,68 Passengers General cargo Reefer ships Ro-Ro cargo Special Ships Total % -2% -4% -6% 1dwt in 25 Growth rate 2/ 25 Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Merchant Fleet of ships of 3gt and over Evolution of the growth rates (GT, DWT, and Number of ships) between 1995 and 25 4% 35% 888,36 mgt (+ 37.2%) 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 761,99 mgt (+ 15.5%) 38,917 ships (+ 7.4%) 56,544 mdwt (+ 11.7%) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 61,673 mdwt (+ 3.2%) 39,932 ships (+ 1.2%) Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Merchant Fleet by main types of ship of 3gt and over Evolution of the number of ships in shares (%) of the world fleet 1995 25, Growth rate in 25 Share of World Fleet 4% 35% Growth rate - 1.8 % 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % +.5 % + 2.9 % -.3 % + 5.4 % + 1.5 % 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Oil Tankers Liquefied gas Bulk carriers Container ships Passengers General cargo Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Merchant Reported Fleet by National and Foreign Flag As at January 1 st, 25 million DWT and number of ships million DWT 9 8 National Flag (dwt) Foreign Flag (dwt) Ships of 1, GT and over 7 6 4 12,996 13,121 13,342 13,35 13,84 14,48 3 2 1 Total Units in the : 13,183 13,71 12,95 12,916 12,646 12,462 2 21 22 23 24 25 Reported Fleet 26,179 26,192 26,247 26,221 26,486 26,942 Not Reported Fleet 3,371 3,524 3,686 4,174 4,117 3,99 Total World Fleet (1gt and over) 29,55 29,716 29,933 3,395 3,63 3,851 Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Merchant Fleet Top Ten Countries WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES OF MANAGEMENT DWT-rank 25 (24) As at January 1st, 25 Rank in 25 (in 24) and million DWT (Ships of 1gt and over ) % share on Total fleet - the Total Growth rate Country of Management million DWT World Fleet 24/25 25 Reported in 25 Growth rate 1996/25 1(1) GREECE 16.6 19.4% + 2.7% + 36.1% 2(2) JAPAN 118.6 14.3% + 8.3% + 36.3% 3(4) GERMANY 57.5 7.% + 13.2% + 238.2% 4(5) CHINA, PR of 54.1 6.5% + 12.% + 59.1% 5(3) NORWAY 44. 5.3% - 3.5% - 8.3% 6(6) USA 41.2 5.% - 9.1% - 13.3% 7(7) HONG-KONG 39. 4.7% + 24.2% + 27.9% 8(8) KOREA, Rep.of 26.8 3.2% + 5.5% + 34.% 9(11) UK 25.6 3.1% + 11.3% + 21.9% 1(1) CHINESE TAÏPEI 23.7 2.9% + 4.4% + 69.3% Total Top Ten Countries of Management 591.1 71.5% + 5.9% + 34.6% Others countries 236.1 28.5% + 6.7% + 21.6% Total World Merchant Fleet by Country of Management 827.2 + 6.1% + 3.6% Total World Merchant Fleet (including fleets for which the Country of Management is unknown) 879.9 3,99 ships for 52.7 million dwt not reported Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Merchant Fleet Top Ten Countries by National (NF) and Foreign Flags (FF) As at January 1 st, 25 Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
Orderbook Evolution by type of ship 25 2 Total million DWT : 177.3 22.7 3.1 3.9 44.7 1. 15 95.8 112.6 112.3 115.3 69.5 1 5 89.5 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Tankers >=1,dwt Bulk Carriers >=1,dwt LNG/LPG Carriers Container Vessels >=5,dwt Others (of which Passenger Vessels >=1grt) General cargo (>= 3gt) Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
Deliveries in 24 by Country of Shipbuilder Million DWT and number of ships 3.6 Others countries End 24 6.8 2.8 End 23 Chinese Taïpei Poland Germany China, PR of S.Korea Japan 1..6.4.6.8 1.1 1. 1.1.8 3.6 3. 5.7 4. (279) 1.1 (15).5 (17) 1. (52) 7.8 (15) 18. 2.7 19.4 19.6 2.4 2.4 23.3 (271) 23.5 (386) End 22 End 21 DELIVERIES by Region : ASIA : 857 ships (73.3% share) EUROPE : 274 ships (23.4% share) Others : 39 ships 61.2 (1,17) TOTAL 45.6 49.6 54.6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
Major trades Total World Trade World Seaborne Trade Volume Development 1993-24 (in million tonnes) - Growth rate in 24 2,7 2, Crude oil and oil products The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina) Other Cargoes Total World Trade + 5.7 % + 6.7 % 7, 6, 2,3 2,1 + 7.2 % 6, 1,9 5, 1,7 1, + 7.7 % 5, 1,3 4, 1,1 9 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24(*) (*) estimates Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25). 4,
World Market Price Indices for Selected Commodities Annual Average (1993-24) Average in 25 as at end of June (*) Index 2 = 1 18 15 144.9 12 116.4 9 112,1 6 3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 (*) Grain Non ferrous metal Agricultural raw material Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
World Market Price Indices for Selected Commodities Annual Average (1993-24) Average in 25 as at end of June (*) 25 Index 2 = 1 232.3 2 191.8 15 171.9 1 5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 (*) Iron ore, scrap metals Coal Crude oil Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
FREIGHT MARKET (indices) YEARS 1995 to 25 (January to June) 7 Index 1972 = 1 6 4 46.7 425.3 49.4 347.6 3 2 Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months) 1 General Freight Index Grain Freight Index Miscellaneous Freight Index 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures (as at June 25) and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels (as at June 25).
Report on marine insurance premiums 23 and 24 By end of August 24, 47 of 54 members reported their country s marine premium figures for accounting years 23 and 24. Reported figures represent approx. 97% of the total marine premium written by all IUMI members in 23 and 24. Total premium for 23 is therefore estimated to reach approx. USD 16.6 billion and for 24 approx. USD 16.4 billion (excluding P&I from mutual P&I Clubs).
World Merchant Fleet and Global Marine Hull & Liability Premium Index of evolution, vessels > 1 GT, 1995 = 1% 15% 125% 1% No. Ships 75% Gross tonnage 5% 25% % 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Source: Indicators for World Fleet from ISL Bremen 21 22 23 24 Global Marine Hull & Liab. Premium
World Seaborne Trade Volume and Global Cargo Premium Index of evolution, 1995 = 1% 15% 125% 1% 75% 5% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Source: Indicators for World Trade Volume from ISL Bremen Total World Trade Volume Global Cargo Premium
Global premiums reported 2 to 24 (accounting years) Global Hull Transport / Cargo Marine Liability 24 23 22 21 2 Offshore / Energy Total 1 1 2 USD (millions) A major part of the volume increase from 22 to 23 was due to a weakening of US$ against major European and Asian currencies and thus not a real global volume increase!
Index of evolution of Exchange rates between US$ and selected currencies (as of December each year) 14% 13% 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% EUR GBP JPY NOK 6% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Source: Norges Bank Exchange Rates Statistics
Market Shares 24 11.6% 2.1% Europe Asia/Pacific North America Rest of World 25.7% 6.5% Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom (IUA + Lloyds) Asia/Pacific : Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore North America : Bermuda, Canada, USA Rest of the World : Congo, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa,Tunisia, United Arab Emirates Countries in italics did not report in 25
Report on marine insurance premiums by economic areas (USD Millions) 12 1 8 6 4 2 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Accounting Year Europe Asia/Pacific North America Rest of the World
Global Marine Premium 1992-24 (USD Million), as reported 18 16 Total 14 12 1 Cargo 8 6 4 2 Hull Energy Liability 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Accounting Year A substantial part of the volume increase since 21 is due to a weakening of the US$ against other currencies.
Global Hull Premium - Major Markets 1992-24 (USD Million) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 Accounting Year 22 23 24 France Italy Japan Norway Spain UK (ILU/IUA) UK (Lloyd's) USA UK Lloyd s reports underwriting year premium such that 24 volume is likely to increase.
Global Cargo Premium - Major Markets 1992-24 (USD Million) 2 2 1 1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 Accounting Year 24 Belgium China France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK (ILU/IUA) UK (Lloyd's) USA
MARINE MUTUAL MARKET SECTOR Gross Calls (Premium) Operational location Per accounting year USD Million 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Accounting Year Japan Norway Sweden UK US Source: Standard & Poors Marine Mutual Report 25
Marine Hull Evolution of Gross Premium and Paid Claims Actual and estimated towards ultimate, U/W Year 1997 to 24 (USD) 3 1997 underwriting year 3 USD 1998 underwriting year 1999 underwriting year 2 underwriting year USD USD USD 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 end of 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 ult end of 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 ult end of 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 ult end of 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ult 3 USD 2 21 underwriting year 3 USD 22 underwriting year 2 3 USD 23 underwriting year 2 3 USD 24 underwriting year 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 end of 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 ult end of 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 ult end of 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 ult end of 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 ult Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Ultimate calculation based on figures of 6 Member Organisations France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds, UK IUA
Marine Hull Evolution of Gross Loss Ratio, actual and estimated towards ultimate 14% U/W Year 1996 to 24 Assuming a 3% expense ratio (acquisition and management expenses), technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 7% 12% 1% 8% 6% 1999 1998 2 22 1997 / 21 24 23/1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 4% 7% 23 2% 24 % 12 24 36 48 6 72 84 96 18 Ultimate Ultimate calculation based on figures of 6 Member Organisations: France, Germany, Italy, Norway, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (5 for 1996 No Germany)
Transport / Cargo Evolution of Gross Premium and Paid Claims Actual and estimated towards ultimate, U/W Year 1997 to 24 (USD) US D 4 1997 underwriting year 1998 underwriting year US D 4 1999 underwriting year USD 4 USD 2 underwriting year 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 end of 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 ult end of 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 ult end of 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 ult end of 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ult USD 21 underwriting year 4 USD 22 underwriting year 4 USD 23 underwriting year 4 US D 24 underwriting year 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 end of 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 ult end of 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 ult end of 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 ult end of 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 ult Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 8 Member Organisations Belgium, Chinese Taipei, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds, UK IUA
Transport/Cargo Evolution of Gross Loss Ratio, actual and estimated towards ultimate Assuming a 3% expense ratio (acquisition and management expenses), technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 7% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% U/W Year 1996 to 24 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 7% 23 24 % 12 24 36 48 6 72 84 96 18 Ultimate Ultimate calculation based on totals of 8 Member Organisations Belgium, Chinese Taipei, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK Lloyds, UK IUA (7 for 1996 no Germany)
Marine Hull and Cargo/Transport Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio U/W Year 1996 to 24 Assuming a 3% expense ratio (acquisition and management expenses), technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 7% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% Marine Hull Cargo/Transport 4% 2% % 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24
Facts & Figures Open Forum World Trade The Political Environment and the Key Economic Drivers Dale Andrew, Head of Trade Policy, OECD Shipping Capital Providers - Managing Financial Risk - Threats and Challenges Michael Parker, Managing Director, Global Industry Head, Shipping & Logistics, Citigroup Managing Insurance Risk for the International Shipping Market Rolf Tolle, Franchise Performance Director, Lloyd s