Systemic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Buildings and Infrastructure in the City of Thessaloniki, Greece Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis, Jacopo Selva, Kalliopi Kakderi (AUTH) Bijan Khazai (KIT) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 1
Application to the city of Thessaloniki New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT) Seismic hazard Geotechnical zonation Seismic risk losses - Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki) - Main road network (interaction with buildings) - Main electric power network (transmission system) - Main water supply system (interaction with electric power network) Transportation accessibility assessment (METU) Shelter demand assessment (KIT) Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction with electric power network) (AUTH) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 2
Seismicity - Tectonics Geographical distribution of earthquake events with M 4.0 Tectonics SHARE 2013 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 3
Seismic zones 22 0'0"E 23 0'0"E 24 0'0"E 25 0'0"E 26 0'0"E SHARE 2013 42 0'0"N 42 0'0"N MKAS212 MKAS389 GRAS392 41 0'0"N 41 0'0"N GRAS388 GRAS390 40 0'0"N 40 0'0"N SYNER-G application 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 4
22 40'0"E Geotechnical classification according to EC8 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 40 44'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 42'0"N 40 40'0"N 40 38'0"N 40 42'0"N 40 40'0"N 40 38'0"N Geotechnical classification (EC8) 40 36'0"N 40 36'0"N 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N A B C 40 34'0"N 40 32'0"N 22 40'0"E 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 40 30'0"N 40 44'0"N 40 30'0"N 40 44 22 40'0"E 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 40 42'0"N 40 42 40 40'0"N 40 40 40 38'0"N 40 38 Liquefaction susceptibility (HAZUS, NIBS 2004) 40 36'0"N 40 36 40 34'0"N 40 34 None 0: None Moderate 3: 40 32'0"N 40 32 High 5: Very High 40 30'0"N 40 30 22 40'0"E 22 42'0"E 22 44'0"E 22 46'0"E 22 48'0"E 22 50'0"E 22 52'0"E 22 54'0"E 22 56'0"E 22 58'0"E 23 0'0"E 23 2'0"E 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 5
Sub-City Districts European Urban Audit (Eurostat) 20 Sub Districts ID SCD name Population 0 Ladadika-Dikastirion squ. 15868 1 St.George-Rotonda 19260 2 University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower 21376 3 PAOK-Malakopi 21376 4 Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital 17385 5 Toumba-St.Fanourios-Ydragogio 18542 6 Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora 16319 7 Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) 16709 8 Athinon 18860 9 Analipsi-Dermatologiko 19619 10 Nea Paralia-Municipal Library 20134 11 Railway Station-Xirokrini 16669 12 Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi 15454 13 Charilaou-Exohes 26815 14 Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau 25455 15 School for the blind-sailing Club 15822 16 Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari 16761 17 Ippokratio 16712 18 Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba 20724 19 Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia 16729 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 6
Building Stock Study area buildings blocks (study area): 2,893 buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry) inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city) Number of buildings ntotal 0-5 5-15 15-30 30-80 >80 0 500 1,000 2,000 Meters 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 7
Building stock Average Losses (Deaths) 10 Results (10,000 runs) 0 BDG-deaths BDG (deaths % of total pop.) BDG-deaths 10 0 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.5 x 10-5 1.4 deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002) 0.255x10-03 x 790.824 = 201 deaths BDG-deaths moving average x 10-3 1.5 x 10-5 1.4 mean 1.2 mean +/- std 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80000.2 9000 10000 # runs BDG-deaths λ (BDG-deaths) BDG-deaths 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.48x10-05 Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance Deaths BDG-deaths (% of total pop.) x 790.824 = 4 deaths (population) # runs 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 # runs 9 x 10-3
Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs) Collapses Yield 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 10
Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs) Deaths Injured 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 11
Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs) Displaced people (good weather) Displaced people (bad weather) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 12
Application to RDN of Thessaloniki Bridges/Overpass: Single span (non-monolithic): 15 Multiple spans: 44 Roads (236 km) Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 13
Network connectivity: Performance Indicators Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed) connectivity loss between TAZs Bridge/road failure Blocked by buildings Blocked by overpass bridges 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 14
Correlation of broken bridges to network connectivity Ring road Interchange K17 Ring road Interchange K18 Interchange (Monastiriou) Interchange with railway Road to airport 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 15
Road Network Risk Curve Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance (λ) Interaction with BDG no interaction with BDG 20% 33% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 16
Application to Water Supply System of Thessaloniki Features: - 21 pumps - 11 tanks - pipes ~280 km - 437 demand nodes 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 17
Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN transmission stations to network connectivity 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 18
Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network Mean Annual Frequency of exceedance (λ) interaction no interaction System functionality Tm= 1000 years of WCL 1% 1.8% Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL) 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 19
Multi-criteria Shelter Demand Model 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 20
Shelter Needs Model Shelter Needs Index (SNI) 0, 0.00-0.03 low 0, 0.03-0.06 0, 0.06-0.19 0, 0.19-0.33 0, 0.33-0.61 high 2ECEES SYNER-G Special Session Istanbul, 27 August 2014 21