Dry Bulk Insight Monthly Analysis of the Dry Bulk Market issue 59 Radarwatch Argentina is facing worst drought in a decade thus curtailing its grain trade Pessimism continues to loom in newbuild market European Union has imposed duty on Chinese steel products import Chinese imports of iron ore on an increase Chinese rebar and hot rolled coil price stabilise Some term comfort The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) after an agonizing wait of three months finally recrossed the psychological mark of 1,. Over the month the Index gained 296 points and closed at 1,7, mainly due to a surge in iron ore chartering. It had been known for quite some time that Chinese companies were looking for greater control on the supply side. But it was not expected in the present scenario when worldwide markets have slumped. Lately, Aluminium Corporation of China (Chinalco) acquired a 12% stake in the UK listed iron ore giant Rio Tinto, which is seen by them as a strategic investment. Chinalco will be paying more than $14billion, which will make it the largest overseas investment ever made by a Chinese enterprise. TCE Earnings ($pd) 28/9 28 29 * Dec Jan Capesize 115,86 19,8 8,55 19,8 Panamax 67,95 12,3 13,29 12,295 Handymax 35,65 3,48 4,27 3,48 Handy 22,31 3,8 3,47 3,75 * Average - Year to Date Over the last few months, because of contract defaults by steel mills, miners and commodity traders, a number of shipping companies, such as Industrial Carriers, Parkroad and Atlas Shipping, have been forced to file for bankruptcy. However it looks like this sector can expect better relations and support from chartering counterparts in the near future. In a significant move, Fortescue Metal Group and Bocimar reached an agreement to settle the dispute that had emerged when the Australian miner cancelled its period contracts with shippers including Bocimar. They have agreed to establish a shipping joint venture, which will charter three Capesize vessels from Bocimar. Two of the vessels will be immediately delivered, while the third is due for delivery in 21. Under the terms of the agreement Fortescue Metals Group will be by taking up the vessels on a low charter rate but giving company shares worth millions to Bocimar. Drewry Dry Bulk Earnings Index 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Jan 7 Jan 8 Index (Jan 1 = 1) Average (of months shown) Jan 9 Our view Soon after the conclusion of the Chinese New Year, the second round of annual iron ore negotiations is expected to start. Also during this time Chinese iron ore traders are expected to increase iron ore procurement, which was also evident during last year s contract negotiations between CISA and Australian Miners. All this is expected to provide further strength to freight rates in the short term. Market Barometer Previous MARKET POSITION contents Summary 1 Bulk Focus 2 Fleet Focus 3 Handy 7 Financials 8 Indices and FFAs 9 Current Capesize 4 Market Summaries 1-11 WEAK MARKET DIRECTION STRONG Panamax 5 Handymax 6 Methodology Notes 12 Contacts 12 1
bulkfocus Market Indicators Low High Steel production Iron ore trade Coal trade Grain trade legend Position Rising Falling Static Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade (Mt) 28(p) 3Q8 4Q8(p) 1Q9(f) 2Q9(f) Iron Ore 889.4 228.1 211.8 235.7 247.5 Steam Coal 61.3 152.1 159. 147. 147.2 Coking Coal 254.4 65.1 64.6 6.7 67.8 Grain 237.2 57.6 6.2 62.7 58.7 Minor Bulks 1,2.3 36.3 33. 36.6 39.2 Total Trade 3,182.7 89.2 798.5 812.7 83.6 (P) Provisional Data (F) Forecast Data Trade set to fall further Protectionism by many economies to save domestic industries and an over cautious approach by big companies have further added to an already limping performance across most sectors. The EU has already imposed a 25% duty on the import of steel wire rods from China and also slapped anti-dumping duties of 26.5% to 85% on China-made bolts and screws. The Indian steel ministry is working towards imposing import duty on certain steel items up to 15%, as a measure against dumping to help protect its industry. At present, the import duty on all categories of steel products used by the automobile, consumer durables sectors and construction industry in India, is 5%. Production cuts continue with many more companies announcing fresh closures of units and a slow down on production figures. It is reported that Indian steel maker Rashtriya Ispat Nigam has cut its production by nearly 3% following slackening demand. One of largest ferrochrome producers in South Africa, Xstrata has announced further production cuts by suspending six furnaces in addition to the already announced suspension of 11 ferrochrome furnaces. The total suspended ferrochrome production capacity represents 8% of its annual operating capacity. BHP Billiton has also announced a reduction in manganese ore production by 21% reducing alloy production by 23%. Meanwhile, Latin America is facing the fear of one of the worst drought crises in the decade. This casts doubt on the production and export prospects for Argentina, one of the leading grain exporters. Major Iron Ore Importers ( tonnes) Major Grain Exporters ( tonnes) 45, EU Japan China 14, USA Canada Argentina 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 5, Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Dec 7 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Major Coal Importers ( tonnes) Major Steel Producers ( tonnes) 2, 15, 1, 5, Dec 7 EU Mar 8 Japan Jun 8 Sep 8 Sth Korea Dec 8 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Dec 7 Mar 8 US Jun 8 Japan Sep 8 China Dec 8 2 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
fleetfocus Total Dry Bulk Fleet: December 28 Fleet Development ( dwt) Size Total ( dwt) No. Dwt Fleet Size 1-4 2,976 79,48,439 4-6 1,715 83,343,12 6-8 1,363 97,79,23 8-11 21 18,375,768 11-2 68 112,54,49 2+ 131 3,128,22 Total 7,75 421,19,6 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5-2. -2.5-3. May 8 Deliveries Jul 8 Deletions Sep 8 Fleet (Right axis) 425 42 415 41 45 4 395 39 385 38 Nov 8 Jan 9 legend Position Rising Falling Static Fleet Age Profile and Orderbook Delivery Schedule (m dwt) Handysize Handymax 11 Capesize Orderbook: M dwt 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 <=1977 198 1983 1986 1989 Panamax 1992 1995 Current Fleet - year delivered : number of vessels (Right axis) Orderbook - scheduled delivery : number of vessels (Right axis) 1998 21 24 27 21 213+ 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Dry Bulk Fleet & Orderbook: January 28 Orderbook Size Existing Fleet 29 21 211 212+ Total % of Fleet ( dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt Dwt 1-4 2,976 79,48 39 9,235 282 8,774 194 6,441 94 3,195 879 27,645 34.8 4-6 1,715 83,343 338 18,799 335 18,875 218 12,331 68 3,861 959 53,866 64.6 6-8 1,363 97,79 59 4,326 8 5,872 53 3,754 35 2,23 227 16,181 16.6 8-11 21 18,376 89 7,735 24 17,516 18 15,584 58 4,988 531 45,823 249.4 11-2 68 112,54 143 25,7 316 54,392 161 25,777 43 6,687 663 111,863 99.8 2+ 131 3,128 24 6,164 24 6,249 43 12,145 53 14,886 144 39,444 13.9 Total 7,75 421,19 962 71,265 1,241 111,679 849 76,32 351 35,847 3,43 294,822 7. Major Dry Bulk Builders Size 1-4 4-6 6-8 8-11 11-2 2+ Total ( dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt China 365 11,548 513 28,971 118 8,635 268 23,585 294 47,15 6 17,72 1,618 137,68 Japan 218 6,758 179 9,855 81 5,451 164 14,68 16 18,69 75 18,953 823 73,154 S. Korea 214 7,66 92 5,334 99 8,171 214 37,93 9 2,772 628 61,245 Others 82 2,274 175 9,77 28 2,94 49 8,741 334 22,815 Total 879 27,645 959 53,866 227 16,181 531 45,823 663 111,863 144 39,444 3,43 294,822 3
capesize11, + dwt Market Indicators Rates Demand Supply New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales Low High Iron ore chartering activity picks up Chinese iron ore traders, mainly supplying iron ore to the medium and small sized Chinese steel mills, procured a huge amount of iron ore over the month. This also happened last year, when traders stockpiled these cargoes at the ports while contract negotiations were underway between Baosteel and Australian miners. At that time this action led to a huge increase in freight rates. However this year it looks set to undermine the negotiating position of the Chinese steel mills, which are led by Baosteel and the China Iron & Steel Association. As per reports, spot iron ore FOB prices by end of January have increased by 4% from the November low of $5/mt. Spot prices on the Brazil-China route have also increased by a stark $8/mt. NB prices SH values legend Position Rising Falling Static With GDP growth in China now estimated at 7% for 29 it does not look like a good time to invest in the newbuild market to meet Chinese demand. Due to this Capesize newbuild activity continued to dwindle and underwent a further decline of more than 4% from last month. Capesize Earnings Index 2,8 2,4 Index Jan1 = 1 Average (period shown) Capesize Rates ($pd) 28 29 28/9 2, Tubarao-Rttdam ($/mt) 3.7 7.2 5.1 5. 7.2 1,6 1,2 8 4 Tubarao-China ($/mt) 6.1 13.9 8.8 8.4 13.9 WAus-China ($/mt) 23.8 5.9 4.3 5. 5.9 Pt Bolivar-ARA ($/mt) 31.8 7.5 5.4 5.3 7.5 Fronthaul Trip 143,52 23,38 7,74 9,26 23,38 Transpacific Trip 11,87 12,78 2,64 7,985 12,78 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Time Charter (1yr) 116,18 22, 18,5 19,6 22, Time Charter (3yr) 75,3 21, 19,2 19,8 21, Capesize Fleet Development m dwt Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values Deliveries 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5 May 8 Jul 8 Deletions Sep 8 Nov 8 Fleet (Right axis) Jan 9 144 142 14 138 136 134 132 13 128 126 124 28 29 28/9 NB Price $m 17, dwt 97.3 77.5 85. 81. 77.5 22, dwt 11.2 81. 88.5 84.5 81. SH Price $m 17, dwt (5yr) 123.2 43. 53.5 47.5 43. 17, dwt (1yr) 11.2 33.5 43. 37. 33.5 15, dwt (1yr) 82.3 28.5 35. 31.5 28.5 SH 5yr % of NB 124.4% 55.5% 62.9% 58.6% 55.5% Scrap Value $m 14.3 7.8 8. 7.8 7.8 Capesize Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 2, 15, TC rate NB* SH-5yr* 28/9 Jan 29 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) Cost - $m 77.5 43. Operating Costs - $pd 6,525 6,525 1, Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 36,2 21,3 5, Current Rate - T/C $pd 22, 22, 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 4Q8 Nov Dec Jan Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 3.98% 1.68% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate).52% 11.66% 4
panamax6-11,dwt Market Indicators Rates Demand Supply New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales NB prices SH values Low High legend Position Rising Falling Static Panamax sector follows the Capes The Baltic Panamax Index posted a gain of 237 points and closed at 795. Over the last couple of months, China has increased iron ore shipments from India. The India/Far East route has predominantly been the domain of this particular vessel segment due to draft restrictions at Indian ports. It has been reported that Chinese traders and steel mills buy 87% of the Indian iron ore shipments. Large Chinese steel mills that had contracted long term contracts with raw material suppliers are sourcing more and more Indian iron ore, which is currently quoted at $3/mt lower than the global benchmark price of $9-$95/mt. In the Atlantic, on the back of slackening coal demand in Europe spot rates on the Richards Bay-Mediterranean coal route stood at $7.6/mt, down by 6.7%. On the newbuild market prices continued to decline and no new contracts were signed. On the other hand, secondhand tonnage showed some optimism and both old and well as modern tonnage exchanged hands. Panamax Earnings Index Panamax Rates ($pd) 1,2 1, 8 Index Jan1=1 Average (period shown) 28 29 28/9 US Gulf-Japan ($/mt) 93.6 24.4 28.3 24.4 24.4 E.Aus-Japan ($/mt) 3.3 6.8 9.5 7.7 6.8 6 Richards Bay-Med ($/mt) 32.3 7.6 9.2 8.2 7.6 4 2 TA Trip 62,33 9,14 1,33 7,75 9,14 TP Trip 43,27 2,125 6,29 3,6 2,125 India/-/FE 53,53 8,25 5,5 8,5 8,25 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Time Charter (1yr) 56,48 12, 13,5 1,7 12, Time Charter (3yr) 41,86 16,2 15,9 16,2 16,2 Panamax Fleet Development m dwt Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values Deliveries 1..8.6.4.2 -. -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 May 8 Jul 8 Deletions Sep 8 Fleet (Right axis) 118 116 114 112 11 18 16 Nov 8 Jan 9 28 29 28/9 NB Price $M 75, dwt 54.4 43. 48. 46. 43. 95, dwt 58.8 47. 52.5 5. 47. SH Price $M 75, dwt (5yr) 7.4 27.5 31. 27. 27.5 75, dwt (1yr) 59.9 22. 26.5 22. 22. SH 5yr % of NB 127.4% 64.% 64.6% 58.7% 64.% Scrap Value $M 6.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 Panamax Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 1, 8, TC rate NB* SH-5yr* 28/9 Jan 29 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) Cost $M 43. 27.5 6, Operating Costs $pd 5,745 5,745 4, 2, 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 4Q8 Nov Dec Jan Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 22,5 15,55 Current Rate - T/C $pd 12, 12, Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 1.9% 3.95% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate).52% 1.9% 5
handymax4-6,dwt Market Indicators Rates Demand Low High Ample available tonnage a problem The Baltic Supramax Index, despite available ample tonnage and not so easily accessible credit, gained 91 points to close at 512. The reason for this increase is seen to be more psychological than fundamental. Supply New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales On the back of increase in the grain and soybean shipments the voyage rates for the US Gulf to Japan and ARA route, stood at $24.4/mt (up by.2%) and $17.3/mt (up by 1.5%) respectively. One year time charter rates for a five year old Supramax vessel stood at $1,5pd, up by 2% month-on-month. Oldendorff chartered the 21-built Tai Health (51,8 dwt) on one year time charter at $1,pd. NB prices SH values legend Position Rising Falling Static On the newbuild market, asset prices declined for the fourth consecutive month on back of decreasing inquiries. On the secondhand market activity witnessed some firming and a total of 15 vessels amounting to.7 million dwt were traded comprising both old and modern tonnage. Handymax Earnings Index 8 7 6 5 Index Jan1=1 Average (period shown) Handymax Rates ($pd) 28 29 28/9 Cont/-/FE 49,6 5,43 7,855 6,535 5,43 TP Trip 33,6 3,525 4,92 4,32 3,525 FE/-/Cont 29,39 3,65 4,595 4,22 3,65 US Gulf/Cont 61,42 7,475 9,85 8,39 7,475 4 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Time Charter (1yr) 45,4 1,5 12,6 1,3 1,5 Time Charter (3yr) 29,92 12, 11,9 12,1 12, Handymax Fleet Development - m dwt Deliveries Deletions Fleet (Right axis) 1. 84.8 82.6 8.4 78.2 -. 76 -.2 74 -.4 May 8 Jul 8 Sep 8 Nov 8 72 Jan 9 Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values 28 29 28/9 NB Price $m 55, dwt 46.4 38.5 42. 4. 38.5 SH Price $m 45,dwt (5yr) 52.9 23.5 25. 23. 23.5 55,dwt (5yr) 57.7 25.5 27.5 25. 25.5 SH 5yr % of NB 111.8% 61.% 59.5% 57.5% 61.% Scrap Value $m 4.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 Handymax Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 8, 7, 6, 5, TC rate NB* SH-5yr* 28/9 Jan 29 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) Cost - $m 38.5 23.5 Operating Costs - $pd 5,255 5,255 4, 3, 2, Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 2,3 14,3 Current Rate - T/C $pd 1,5 1,5 1, 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 4Q8 Nov Dec Jan Current Rate of Return (IRR) %.57%.28% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate) 1.41% 2.17% 6
handy1-4,dwt Market Indicators Low High Rates Demand Supply New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales NB prices SH values Handysize asset returns still negative The Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) remained more or less steady throughout the month with an overall gain of 21 points to close at 3 points. It was a story of two basins as rates in the Atlantic dipped by 11%, whereas in the Pacific they rose by 13%. The IRR on asset values remained negative this month. It moved down sharply to -9.46% for Drewry s standard secondhand vessel where the required rate for 1% IRR is $11,65pd, 79% above the current rate. On the demolition market, Handysize tonnage kept pouring in. Interestingly, tonnage scrapped this month alone was equivalent to the total tonnage scrapped in 28. Indian breakers were the most active as they procured 6% of scrap tonnage. Supported by the huge domestic demand for scrap steel and the comparative ease in securing credit, Indian breakers have benefited tremendously. legend Position Rising Falling Static Handysize Orderbook - Country Wise Handy Rates ($pd) 24% 4% 4% 1% 41% 28 29 28/9 TA Trip 22,59 3,115 3,575 3,515 3,115 TP Trip 26,56 4,16 3,48 3,685 4,16 26% Time Charter (1yr) 24,18 6,5 6,7 6,6 6,5 China P.R. South Korea Japan Vietnam India Others Time Charter (3yr) 21,8 9, 8,9 9, 9, Handy Fleet Development m dwt Deliveries Deletions.4.2 -. -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8-1. -1.2 May 8 Jul 8 Sep 8 Fleet (Right axis) 81 8 79 78 77 76 Nov 8 Jan 9 Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values 28 29 28/9 NB Price $m 3,dwt 38. 31.5 34. 32.5 31.5 SH Price $m 28, dwt (1yr) 3.5 16.5 17. 16.5 16.5 37, dwt (15yr) 33.8 17.5 18.5 17.5 17.5 SH 1yr % of NB 79.4% 52.4% 5.% 5.8% 52.4% Scrap Value $M 2.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Handy Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 35, 3, TC rate NB* SH-1yr* 28/9 Jan 29 Newbuild Secondhand (1yr) Cost - $m 31.5 16.5 25, 2, 15, Operating Costs - $pd 4,67 4,67 Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 17,4 11,65 1, 5, 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 4Q8 Nov Dec Jan Current Rate - T/C $pd 6,5 6,5 Current Rate of Return (IRR) % -.67% -9.46% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate) 4.61% 6.43% 7
financials Bear engulfs dry bulk stocks Over the month most dry bulk stocks declined. The major losers were DryShips, Star Bulk Carriers, Safe Bulkers and Eagle Bulk Shipping. However China Shipping Haisheng, Ningbo Marine and Chowgule Steamships gained strength on their local bourses. DryShips underwent a severe correction of 37% and has been facing difficulties which have stemmed from its classic over expansion. In 4Q8, DryShips cancelled its expensive vessel acquisition deals, which were concluded during the boom time. And it looks like many of the bad debts have already been accounted for. Also Handymax specialist, Eagle Bulk is facing similar problems arising from its aggressive expansion. Prior to its entry into NASDAQ in 25, Eagle Bulk was backed by PE funds. Lately, many drybulk companies are facing charges of violations on their potential loan to value (LTV) covenant clauses. Price Movement of US Listed Drybulk Companies Eagle Bulk Genco DryShips 125 Ocean Freight Star Bulk 1 75 5 25 Feb 8 Jun 8 Oct 8 Feb 9 Typically credit agreements signed between shipping companies and banks contain clauses that prohibit payment of dividend in case LTV covenants are violated. However, lately the suspension announced by many seems like a proactive measure to save cash. Dry Bulk Stocks - Snapshot Company Country Price* % Monthly 52 Week 52 Week P/E Last week Market Cap change High Low Ratio Avg Vol (M USD) Chowgule Steamships India 24.6 3.1% 7.5 17.2.54 36,94 18 Inui Steamship Japan 617. -5.8% 1,88. 55. 2.42 288,56 22 Jinhui Shipping Transport Norway 7.32-13.9% 67.75 6.53.3 345,61 96 Cosco Corporation Singapore.78-17.9% 4.74.61 3.94 39,756, 1,87 First Steamship Taiwan 31.7-2.5% 89.8 22.2 9.75 3,83,586 23 U-Ming MarineTransport Corporation Taiwan 39.4-5.1% 118.5 31.4 3.73 6,398,17 2 Precious Shipping Thailand 1.6-6.2% 32.25 6.7 2.54 1,73,4 328 Diana Shipping USA 13.4-3.2% 41.1 6.85 4.91 1,372,593 961 Genco Shipping USA 16.23-8.6% 84.51 6.43 2.36 2,36,722 496 Excel Maritime USA 7.13-14.6% 6.99 3.25.74 1,967,825 337 Eagle Bulk Shipping USA 5.76-26.% 36.24 2.55 3.92 1,54,455 246 Safe Bulkers USA 6.68-23.7% 19.75 2.98 5.8 71,385 364 Euroseas USA 5.3-7.2% 17.49 2.88 2.44 19,33 143 Predominantly Dry Bulk Companies** Algoma Central Corporation Canada 66. 1.% 14. 48. 4.7 447 21 China Shipping Haisheng 'A' China 5.55 15.1% 18.6 3.95 12.22 13,48,19 472 Ningbo Marine 'A' China 5.34 6.8% 16.6 3.99 15.75 n/a n/a D/S Norden Denmark 186.5-8.1% 655. 12. 1.46 323,525 1,487 Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha Japan 24. -5.5% 93. 178. 2.63 21,882 7 Eidsiva Rederi Norway 14.5 4.3% 33.5 12.1 1.69 n/a n/a Hanjin Shipping S.Korea 2,6. -8.% 5,1. 1,85. 9.73 88,824 1,274 Korea Line Corporation S.Korea 67,. -12.8% 236,5. 46,6. 2.3 225,161 542 Sincere Navigation Corporation Taiwan 23.15-22.4% 58.72 16.5 3.98 7,322,812 391 DryShips Inc. USA 9.6-36.7% 116.43 3.4.57 151,925 492 Star Bulk Carriers USA 2.26-32.3% 13.87 1.72 1.6 278,388 127 Ocean Freight USA 3.89-1.6% 26.96 1.8 1.6 244,55 67 * All prices in local currencies as on 3 th Jan 29 ** Dry bulk tonnage more than 2/3 rd of owned tonnage Three most active companies - by the number of shares traded in the last week irrespective of the price and market cap 8
indices and ffas Baltic Indices: BDI Baltic Indices: BHSI 14,5 3,5 12,5 3, 1,5 2,5 8,5 2, 6,5 1,5 4,5 1, 2,5 5 5 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Baltic Indices: BCI Baltic Ship Valuation Assessment 25, 18 Capesize Panamax Super Handymax 2, 16 14 15, 12 1, 1 8 5, 6 4 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 2 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Baltic Indices: BPI BFA C4 Richards Bay/Rotterdam 14, 7 14 12, 6 1, 8, 5 4 13 6, 4, 3 2 12 2, 1 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 May Jun Jul 11 Baltic Indices: BSI BFA P2a Fronthaul Trip 8, 14, 22, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 21,75 21,5 1, 2, Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 Jan 8 Apr 8 Jul 8 Oct 8 Jan 9 May Jun Jul 21,25 Source: All indices - The Baltic Exchange 9
marketsummaries Fleet Supply 27 28 29* Dec Jan No ' Dwt No ' Dwt No ' Dwt No ' Dwt No ' Dwt Fleet Size - End period 1-4, 2,91 77,736 3,1 8,411 2,976 79,48 3,1 8,411 2,976 79,48 4-6, 1,584 76,118 1,694 82,159 1,715 83,343 1,694 82,159 1,715 83,343 6-8, 1,325 94,775 1,364 97,716 1,363 97,79 1,364 97,716 1,363 97,79 8-11, 165 14,48 24 17,869 21 18,376 24 17,869 21 18,376 11-2, 658 17,917 676 111,262 68 112,54 676 111,262 68 112,54 2,+ 96 21,37 128 29,347 131 3,128 128 29,347 131 3,128 Total 6,738 392,26 7,76 418,763 7,75 421,19 7,76 418,763 7,75 421,19 Orderbook 1-4, 574 17,73 868 27,216 879 27,645 868 27,216 879 27,645 4-6, 728 4,53 969 54,367 959 53,866 969 54,367 959 53,866 6-8, 24 15,4 235 16,772 227 16,181 235 16,772 227 16,181 8-11, 386 33,44 541 46,699 531 45,823 541 46,699 531 45,823 11-2, 479 81,921 652 19,929 663 111,863 652 19,929 663 111,863 2,+ 16 27,967 146 39,951 144 39,444 146 39,951 144 39,444 Total 2,477 216,537 3,411 294,935 3,43 294,822 3,411 294,935 3,43 294,822 % Fleet 55.2% 7.4% 7.% 7.4% 7.% New orders 1-4, 273 9,971 215 6,958 4 138 3 12 4 138 4-6, 439 26,28 215 12,139 4 22 4 22 6-8, 77 6,238 83 5,933 4 292 8-11, 199 19,83 86 7,562 4 37 11-2, 322 58,261 179 29,619 2,+ 45 14,63 53 16,753 Total 1,355 134,614 831 78,964 8 358 11 764 8 358 Deliveries** 1-4, 82 2,38 88 2,435 1 28 3 85 1 28 4-6, 93 4,995 96 5,236 3 169 3 172 3 169 6-8, 45 3,414 4 2,97 1 76 8-11, 4 3,48 27 2,32 1 92 1 83 1 92 11-2, 32 5,663 22 3,894 2 352 2,+ 2 4,264 13 3,128 Total 312 23,855 286 19,965 5 289 1 767 5 289 Deletions 1-4, 1 232 36 1,5 36 1,119 25 745 36 1,119 4-6, 7 335 7 317 3 133 7 317 6-8, 1 61 15 981 9 595 5 323 9 595 8-11, 1 8 11,+ 11 1,68 3 453 1 14 3 453 Total 12 374 69 4,46 55 2,485 34 1,341 55 2,485 Second-hand Sales 1-4, 33 7,42 159 4,478 18 511 14 379 18 511 4-6, 197 7,446 99 4,879 15 743 6 288 15 743 6-8, 186 12,35 8 5,98 1 698 5 347 1 698 8-11, 16 1,286 8 685 3 247 3 247 11,+ 13 13,915 48 8,29 2 321 2 321 Total 85 42,399 394 24,5 48 2,52 25 1,14 48 2,52 * Year to date ** Provisional deliveries for December 28 1 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
marketsummaries Drewry Prices Newbuilding Price (US$m) Scrap Value (US$m) Scrap Price ($/ldt) 27 28 29* Dec Jan 27 28 29* Dec Jan Jan Size 25-3, dwt** 33.2 38. 31.5 32.5 31.5 2. 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 265 5-55, dwt** 4.7 47.1 38.5 4. 38.5 3.7 4.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 27 7-75, dwt 46.6 54.3 43. 46. 43. 4.4 5.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 27 15-18, dwt 83.9 97.3 77.5 81. 77.5 11.1 12.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 26 Second-hand Value (US$m, 5 year old) 27 28 29* Dec Jan Vessel Size 35-4, dwt 26.5 33.8 17.5 17.5 17.5 5-55, dwt 5.4 6.4 25.5 25. 25.5 7-75, dwt 63.1 7.4 27.5 27. 27.5 16-18, dwt 15.7 123.2 43. 47.5 43. 27 28 29* Dec Jan Vessel Size 25-3, dwt 28.4 3.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 7-75, dwt 51.2 59.9 22. 22. 22. 13-15, dwt 74.6 82.3 28.5 31.5 28.5 16-18, dwt 88.4 11.2 33.5 37. 33.5 ** Geared (25 tonne cranes) Second-hand Value (US$m, 1 year old) Freight Rates Capesize 27 28 29* Dec Jan Handymax 27 28 29* Dec Jan Freight Rate $/mt Trip Rate $pd Tubarao - Rotterdam 32.5 3.7 7.2 5. 7.2 Cont/-/Far East 47,77 52,69 5,43 6,535 5,43 Tubarao - China 59.5 6.1 13.9 8.4 13.9 Transpacific Trip 44,67 36,1 3,525 4,32 3,525 W Aus - China 24.5 23.8 5.9 5. 5.9 FE/-/Cont 44,715 31,54 3,65 4,22 3,65 US Gulf/Cont 68,63 65,91 7,475 8,39 7,475 Trip Rate $pd Fronthaul trip 148,215 143,52 23,38 9,26 23,38 TC Rate (1yr) TC Rate 5 Year Old $/day 12,875 116,18 22, 19,6 22, 5 Year Old $/day 43,945 48,31 1,5 1,3 1,5 1 Year Old $/day 84,4 93,88 18, 15,9 18, 1 Year Old $/day 38,4 41,25 8,5 8,6 8,5 TC Rate (3yr) TC Rate (3yr) 5 Year Old $/day 74, 75,3 21, 19,8 21, 5 Year Old $/day 33,665 31,42 12, 12,1 12, Panamax 27 28 29* Dec Jan Handysize 27 28 29* Dec Jan Freight Rate $/mt Trip Rate $pd US Gulf - Japan 79. 93.7 24.4 24.4 24.4 Transatlantic Trip 27,65 22,59 3,115 3,515 3,115 Transpacific Trip 31,5 26,56 4,16 3,685 4,16 Trip Rate $pd Transatlantic Trip 61,48 62,33 9,14 7,75 9,14 Transpacific Trip 54,96 43,27 2,125 3,6 2,125 TC Rate TC Rate 5 Year Old $/day 52,23 56,48 12, 1,7 12, 1 Year Old $/day 23,2 24,11 6,5 6,6 6,5 1 Year Old $/day 49, 53,56 1,7 9,5 1,7 TC Rate (3yr) TC Rate (3yr) 5 Year Old $/day 38,65 41,86 16,2 16,2 16,2 5 Year Old $/day 21,915 21,1 9, 9, 9, * Year to date average 11 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
methodologynotes The Drewry Dry Bulk Earnings Index The Drewry Dry Bulk Earnings Index takes eighteen different trade routes covering the four sectors of the dry bulk market. Each route is weighted within its market to produce a time charter earnings Index. For the sake of this publication January 22 was designated the starting point at which all the indices = 1. Assumptions for Investment Return calculations Newbuilding - Delivery in 24 months, 25 year trading life. Secondhand - Prompt delivery five year-old, 2 year trading life. Residual value based on prevailing scrap rates 28 operating costs. 36 trading days. Sensitivity implies for a $1,pd change in TC Rate, the given change in IRR is produced. Sources All Baltic indices on page 9 sourced from The Baltic Exchange. contactdetails Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Telephone: +44 ()2 7538 191 Fax: +44 ()2 7987 9396 Web www.drewry.co.uk Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Drewry House, Meridian Gate - South Quay 213 Marsh Wall, London E14 9FJ United Kingdom Dry Bulk Insight Editor: Susan Oatway, Senior Consultant Contact: Jaya Banik, Research Analyst Email: banik@drewry.co.uk COPYRIGHT NOTICE This report is copyright and is for the sole use of the purchaser and is not to be copied or distributed outside to any third party organisation. Reproduction, scanning into an electronic retrieval system, or copying to a database is strictly prohibited without written permission of the publisher. Contravention will result in a requirement to pay damages to the publisher and owner of the copyright, Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. While the information is presented in good faith, the publisher cannot accept liability for any errors of fact or opinion contained in the report. 12