Alternative fuels LNG a short or a medium term solution? Ketil Djønne Vice President, External Relations
Key driver - stricter environmental requirements Existing fleets Requirement 2010: SOx < 1,0% (ECA) 2015: SOx < 0,1% (ECA) 2020: SOx < 0,5% (global) Compliance tech. HFO + scrubber Distillate fuels LNG, other fuels(?) Newbuilds Requirement 2011: NOx Tier 2 (global) 2016: NOx Tier 3 (ECA) Compliance tech. Tuning, SCR, HAM, water emulsion, EGR, LNG, other fuels(?) CO2 regulations on the way 2
Key drivers shrinking crude reserves, increasing prices and some environment councious owners/transport users/first movers 3
The full list of future fuel alternatives Heavy Fuel Oil (with exhaust cleaning) Distillate fuel oils LNG CNG LPG GTL (incl methanol) Biofuels / biogas and alcohols Hydrogen (as energy carrier) Batteries (as energy carrier) Nuclear Our bet is that hydrocarbons will dominate the future mix We believe it boils down to oil and natural gas 4
Hybrid propulsion The Prius of the seas Traditional Diesel electric propulsion system Future Technologies emerging towards 2020 Diesel Engine Fuel Cell Optimal energy use Solar Panel Battery Pack 8. November 2011 5
Forecast total world wide vessel contracting - DWT 8. November 2011 6
LNG environmental performance But what about methane slip??? In short; a real issue, but effective improvements are now being made 7
LNG can be great from an economic perspective but price differential is crucial 4 USD/mmbtu 7-8 USD/mmbtu 10-11 USD/mmbtu 8
The Age of LNG is FUEL hereis here History of modern LNG carriers goes back to 1969 40+ years. Today: ~ 350 LNG/C All LNG carriers used to be LNG fuelled gas fuelled ships is not a new concept History of LNG fuelled ships other than LNG carriers since 2000 11 years Today: ~ 22 LNG fuelled vessels in operation. All in Norway. Around same number of LNG fuelled ships on order. Increasing interest for LNG fuel around the world Different LNG distribution projects in progress
LNG is safe Two main areas of difference from other fuels: - Cryogenic effects - Forms gas clouds LNG has a strong track record - No significant incidents with ships - Very few incidents on land But, this performance is due to: - Stricter requirements - Good safety behaviour LNG success stories in Norway due to Government requirements AND incentives 10
DNV has classified a large fleet of LNG fuelled ships 22 Ships in operation Confirmed orderbook Year Type of vessel Owner Class 2000 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2003 PSV Simon Møkster DNV 2003 PSV Eidesvik DNV 2006 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2007 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2007 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2007 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2007 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2008 PSV Eidesvik Shipping DNV 2009 PSV Eidesvik Shipping DNV 2009 Car/passenger ferry Tide Sjø DNV 2009 Car/passenger ferry Tide Sjø DNV 2009 Car/passenger ferry Tide Sjø DNV 2009 Patrol vessel REM DNV 2009 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2010 Patrol vessel REM DNV 2010 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2010 Patrol vessel REM DNV 2010 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2010 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2010 Car/passenger ferry Fosen Namsos Sjø DNV 2011 PSV DOF DNV Zero serious incidents, 10 years experience, 20 ships, 200 000 operation hours! Year Type of vessel Owner Class 2011 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2011 PSV Solstad Rederi DNV 2011 General Cargo Nordnorsk Shipping DNV 2012 PSV Olympic Shipping DNV 2012 PSV Eidesvik DNV 2012 PSV Eidesvik DNV 2012 Ro-Ro Sea-Cargo DNV 2012 Ro-Ro Sea-Cargo DNV 2012 High speed RoPax Buquebus DNV 2012 PSV Island Offshore DNV 2012 PSV Island Offshore DNV 2012 PSV REM DNV 2013 Ro-Ro Norlines DNV 2013 Ro-Ro Norlines DNV 2013 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2013 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2013 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2013 Car/passenger ferry Torghatten Nord DNV 2013 RoPax Viking Line LR 2013 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine? 2013 PSV Harvey Gulf Int. Marine? Planned conversion Year Type of vessel Owner 2011 Car/passenger ferry Fjord1 DNV 2011 Chemical tanker Tarbit Shipping GL 2013 RoPax Fjordline DNV 2013 RoPax Fjordline DNV 11
LNG - more than just small scale
So why is LNG for ships developing so slowly? Fuel availability / infrastructure, chicken and egg Bunkering regulations needed Technology / cost issues specific to each business case Authorities can incentivise more rapid LNG uptake 13
Key take-aways Much is going on in R&I and some full scale commercial application (Bio fuel, hybrid, LNG) Future will probably produce a variety of solutions Depressed economy and many new buildings hampers change Each business case is different but LNG makes sense for a lot of them Bunkering regulations needed - but industry is now developing practices and standards Authority support and incentives required to incubate LNG growth LNG is safe - because we are dealing with the risks! 14
Safeguarding life, property and the environment www.dnv.com 15