Mar 23th, 2015 @UC. Berkeley International Workshop on Nuclear Safety: From accident mitigation to resilient society facing extreme situations Measurement of risk perception and social acceptability: On-going situations, public interests, and media trends Ryuma SHINEHA, Ph.D (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies)
There are over 20,000 of deaths and disappearances, approximately 250,000 evacuee all over the Japan And there are various damages Iwate Miyagi Fukushima Death 5113 10487 3558 Human damage Collapse of buildings/ houses Disappeared 1132 1274 3 Evacuee (to other Prefecture) (Complete or half destroyed) 34662 (1441) 88736 (6813) 126889 (45279) 25706 238110 94825 Each number are based on press release by local/national government by the Jun 30 2014. Causes of death: more than 90% deaths causes by drowning for the tsunami.
(2014 原子力規制委員 )
Part of the mandatory evacua5on area was allowed public access with permission a<er the April 1, 2013.
The 3.11 and Information society Gap and different characters of damage among devastated area Social conditions of seriously injured areas (Shineha 2013) >> farming and fishery area/ aging society >> Gaps of capitals (economic, social, etc ) Gap of reconstruction City planning as politics Another important aspect. Information Huge amount of articles and broadcasting in various media Media as information platform, and information volunteer Several Questions on Information ecosystem concerning the 3.11 1. What kind of topics and information has been focused on? 2. Differences of interested topics and framing between varieties of media 3. Who is producer and consumer of information and discourses on the 3.11?
Several Questions on Information ecosystem concerning the 3.11 1. What kind of topics and information has been focused on? 2. Differences of interested topics and framing between varieties of media 3. Who is producer and consumer of information and discourses on the 3.11? Net/Social Media (Web news, Blogs, TwiMer) Na5onal Newspaper (Asahi, Yomiuri, Mainichi, Nikkei) Local/rural Newspaper (in Tohoku) (Kahoku- Shinpo,Fukushima- Minpou)
Even NPP accident has faded out of our main interests in Twitter NPP (%) Food Safety (%) Total number of Tweet Cooperated by Dr. Eiji Aramaki & Dr. Mai Miyabe, the University of Tokyo Approximately 1.4 billion tweets from 3.11 to 6.11 (equivalent to 20% of the total) were analyzed. (Tanaka Mikihito, Shineha Ryuma, Kichiro Maruyama, 2013)
According to time, share of the 3.11 decreased. This is more significant in web news. Transi5on of framing diversity of newspapers and web news during first 3 months Entertainment Computer Sports Nature Culture, Educa5on Lawsuits Society Interna5onal Economics Poli5cs 3.11 disaster Month: 1st 2nd 3rd Total 1st 2nd 3rd Total (n=253) (n=258) (n=243) (n=754) (n=150) (n=150) (n=150) (n=450) Newspapers (Na5onal Papers: Asahi, Yomiuri, Nikkei, Mainichi) Web news (Yahoo! News Topic) (Tanaka Mikihito, Shineha Ryuma, Kichiro Maruyama, 2013)
Contents Diversity Index D =Diversity c =Ar5cle Amount of each category T =Total amount of ar5cle in press n =Category number total Contents Diversity Index, VDI (Voakes et al., 1996) Diversity High (to 1) Diversity Low (to 0)
Time-lined change of Contents Diversity Index (VDI) of agenda setting level (all news) 3.11 Entertainment Newspaper Yahoo!_Random Yahoo!_PVtop10 TogeMer 1th month 2nd month 3rd month 10 ( 田中 標葉 丸山 2012)
Time-lined change of Contents Diversity Index (VDI) of agenda setting level (3.11 related) Damage area & vic5ms NPP Newspaper Yahoo!_Random Yahoo!_PVtop10 TogeMer 1th month 2nd month 3rd month 11 ( 田中 標葉 丸山 2012)
Co-word network analysis of Asahi-shimbun and Kahoku-shinpou Asahi_week1: Informa5on confusion term Kahoku_week1 (Different from Asahi_week1) Asahi_week4 (Categoriza5on progressed) (田中 標葉 丸山 2012)
Comparison of keywords appearance between National and Local Newspapers(tentative results) Share ra5o of ar5cles with each topics Asahi Yomiuri Kahoku- Shinpo Fukushima- Minpo (Cooperated by Masahiro Watanabe, Waseda Univ.) Different tendency between Na5onal and Local newspaper ü Na5onal papers: Decrease of Earthquake and Tsunami and Increase of Nuclear power ü Local papers: Conserva5on of Tsunami equally to Nuclear power
Damage level does not bring number of broadcasting in TV. Population Death Population Death ratio Ishinomaki 160704 3160 Rikuzentakada 23302 1549 Higashi- Matsushina 42908 1045 Kesennuma 73494 1007 Natori 73140 911 Kamaishi 39578 883 Otsuchi 15277 800 Sendai 1045903 704 Yamamoto 16711 670 Minami-Soma 70895 640 Yamada 18625 600 Minami-Sanriku 17431 551 Onagawa 10051 547 Soma 37796 454 Miyako 59442 420 Ofunato 40738 337 Iwaki 342198 309 Watari 34846 257 Tagajo 62979 188 Iwanuma 44198 183 Rikuzentakada 23302 6.65 Onagawa 10051 5.44 Otsuchi 15277 5.24 Yamamoto 16711 4.01 Yamada 18625 3.22 Minami-Sanriku 17431 3.16 Higashi- Matsuhima 42908 2.44 Kamaishi 39578 2.23 Ishinomaki 160704 1.97 Kesennuma 73494 1.37 Natori 73140 1.25 Soma 37796 1.20 Minami-Soma 70895 0.90 Ofunato 40738 0.83 Watari 34846 0.74 Miyako 59442 0.71 Iwanuma 44198 0.41 Tagajo 62979 0.30 Iwaki 342198 0.09 Sendai 1045903 0.07 N of TV broadcasting Sendai 2879 Ishinomaki 2739 Minami-Sanriku 2180 Rikuzentakada 1786 Kesennuma 1764 Iwaki 1616 Minami-Soma 1612 Kamaishi 1185 Ofunato 1080 Miyako 1063 Otsuchi 806 Soma 765 Yamada 596 Onagaaw 548 Natori 517 Higashi-Matsushima 342 Tagajo 243 Yamamoto 184 Iwanuma 173 Watari 149 (Data fro Miura 2012 and Shineha 2013) For example, Onagawa, Yamamoto, Higashi-Matsushima was not broadcasted in spite of their damage level
Different interests in 3.11 related issues according to areas
Public altudes toward topics (Miyagi)
Public altudes toward topics (Fukushima)
Public altudes toward topics (Tokyo areas)
NIMBY: Low recogni5on in metropolitan areas Distrusted in damaged areas Can you agree with opinions that nuclear power is safety? (%) Iwate n=50 Miyagi n=55 Fukushima n=55 Ibaraki n=60 Tokyo n=140 Osaka n=100 Fukui N=40 I can agree with it 2.0 - - 1.7 2.1 4.0 2.5 I can partly agree 12.0 14.5 14.5 15.0 20.7 9.0 27.5 I can t agree with it 46.0 36.4 16.4 38.3 39.3 38.0 30.0 I can t agree with it at all 34.0 36.4 61.8 38.3 23.6 36.0 27.5 I don t know 6.0 12.7 7.3 6.7 14.3 13.0 12.5 (n=500) Generally speaking, people don t trust nuclear safety Strong negative responses in Fukushima In Tokyo and Fukui, partly agree is higher relatively than other areas
NIMBY: Low recogni5on in metropolitan areas Distrusted in damaged areas Can you agree with opinion that electricity companies, government, and etc..have not opened the truth? (%) Iwate n=50 Miyagi n=55 Fukushima n=55 Ibaraki n=60 Tokyo n=140 Osaka n=100 Fukui N=40 I can agree with it 36.0 34.5 50.9 35.0 25.0 29.0 37.5 I can partly agree with it 34.0 40.0 30.9 36.7 36.4 29.0 32.5 Yes and No 26.0 14.5 16.4 21.7 25.7 29.0 20.0 I can t agree with it 2.0 5.5 1.8 5.0 7.9 4.0 7.5 I can t agree with it at all 2.0 5.5-1.7 5.0 9.0 2.5 (n=500) Distrusted in information disclosure > Particularly in the Fukushima & Miyagi Also in Fukui, negative response is dominant. In Tokyo and Osaka, relatively moderate or yes and no response
NIMBY: Low recogni5on in metropolitan areas Distrusted in damaged areas Have you heard about the decommission of the Fukushima Dai Ichi NPP? (%) Iwate n=50 Miyagi n=55 Fukushima n=55 Ibaraki n=60 Tokyo n=140 Osaka n=100 Fukui N=40 Yes 62.0 65.5 81.8 73.3 54.3 50.0 60.0 No 38.0 34.5 18.2 26.7 45.7 50.0 40.0 The way and process of treatment of used fuel and wastes Risk of Radia5on waste Schedule and process of decomission Disaster preven5on schemes for the accident Effects on local residents Regional promo5on effects of the disposal site of radia5on wastes (n=500) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 (%) Safety The need Mechanism Economic aspect Informa5on of past cases There is no par5cular topics which I want to know Other
On- going + Emergent Issues Social Interests fading out (Gaps according to areas) Although media and public interests in urban area is fading out, reality of the damaged site is on- going
We should focus on various societal impact of the 3.11 and the accident Different characters of damage and interests among devastated area Farming and fishery area/ aging society of damaged area Gaps of capitals (economic, social, etc ) Difference of interests in the 3.11 according to areas Distrustness and NIMBY issues (gap between metropolitan and Tohoku) Gap of informa5on & media amen5on concerning the 3.11 Different media trend/amen5on on 3.11 between na5onal, social, & local media... The NPP accident exploited the media amen5ons outside of damaged area Peripheriza5on of local (disaster sites) = rela5vely vulnerable in agenda building process at the na5onal level. >> In addi5on, what we can not describe and treat as sta5cs is important
Acknowledgement Collaborators Prof. Mikihito Tanaka (Waseda Univ.) Prof. Ekou Yagi (Osaka Univ.) Prof. Makoto Yakahashi (Tohoku Univ.) Prof. Masaharu Kitamura (Tohoku Univ.) Kiichiro Maruyama & Masahiro Watanabe Funding Sokendai- CPIS Suntory Founda5on MEXT