Present health and dynamics of glaciers in the Himalayas and Arctic AL. Ramanathan and Glacilogy Team School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University AL. Ramanthan, Parmanand Sharma, Arindan Mandal, Thupstan Angchuk, Lavkush Patel, Naveen Kumar, Mohd. Soheb, Shyam Ranjan, Som Dutta Mishra, Sarvagya Vatsal
Present scenario of climate and the Himalayas H D Pritchard. Nature (2017) Normal year Drought year Water stress makes the High Mountain Asia vulnerable economically and socially to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water
Latest glacier mass balance and elevation change: Himalayas 2000-2016 Map of glacier mean elevation change distribution of glacier-wide mass balance o total mass change of -16.3±3.5 Gt yr -1 between 2000 and 2016, which is less negative than most previous estimates. o region-wide mass balances vary from -4.0±1.5 Gt yr -1 (-0.62 m w.e. yr -1 ) in Nyainqentanglha (Tibet, China) to +1.4±0.8 Gt yr -1 (+0.14 m w.e. yr -1 ) in Kunlun. Brun et al. 2017_Nature Geosciences
Latest glacier mass balance and elevation change: Himalayas o Altitudinal distribution of glacier elevation change and rate of elevation change for the period 2000 2016 o Tibet, Lahaul and Spiti and West Nepal is the most glacier MB negative region in the recent past years o a total sea level contribution of 16.3±3.5 Gt yr -1 corresponding to 0.046±0.009 mm yr -1 sea level equivalent (SLE). Brun et al. 2017_Nature Geosciences
Status in the Indian Himalayas: in-situ measurements Scenario of Indian Himalaya (Pratap et al. 2015_REC) o Mostly negative mass balance years with a few positive ones during 1974 2012 o On a regional level, the geodetic studies suggest that on the whole western, the central and the eastern Himalaya experienced vast thinning during the last decade (2000s) 12/4/2017 5
Indian Himalayan glaciers experienced significant mass loss during later phases of little ice age o based on an unprecedented treering sampling coverage o reconstructed mass balance record for the Western Himalayan Glaciers o Longest reconstructed time-series mass balance Shekhar et al. 2017_Nature Scientific Reports
Himalayan glaciers experienced significant mass loss during later phases of little ice age o Mostly negative mass balance trend in Himachal Pradesh glaciers Shekhar et al. 2017_Nature Scientific Reports
Himachal Pradesh glaciers status and special feature 12/4/2017 Vijay and Braun 2016 FAU, Germany 8
Our glacier monitoring network in the Himalayas Panchi Nala Chhota Shigri, Spiti valley (~16 km2)-benchmark glacier in the western Himalayas Patsio Lahaul valley (~3.5 km2) Panchi Nala, Lahaul valley (~5 km2) Stok, Leh-Ladakh (~1 km2)
Chhota Shigri glacier and precipitation in the Himalayas map prepared by: Praveen Rai/JNU o monsoon-arid transition zone o ISM (July-September) and IWM (January to April) o best studied glacier o moderate mass loss over last decade (-0.53 m w.e/year)
Long term glacier mass balance: Chhota Shigri by JNU 12/4/2017 11
MB gradients 12/4/2017 12
Cumulative point MBs Elevation (m a.s.l.) Site description Mean MB between 2003 and 2015 (m w.e.) Cumulative MB between 2003 and 2015 (m w.e.) 4318 Ablation stake on debris-covered area -2.35-28.85 in lower ablation zone 4425 Ablation stake on clean ice, -4.10-49.35 surrounded by few big boulders 4490 Ablation stake on clean ice -3.66-43.98 4589 Ablation stake on clean ice over -3.16-37.93 highly crevassed zone 4666 Ablation stake on clean ice -3.06-37.06 4779 Ablation stake on clean ice, close to ELA 5200 snow core/drill site for accumulation measurement -1.82-22.26 0.76 8.55 13
MB controlling factors: albedo Different Surface condition In winter (very high albedo, less melt) In summer (very low albedo, high melt) 12/4/2017 14
MB controlling factors: albedo Control of summer-monsoon snowfall on melting In summer-monsoon 2012 Chhota Shigri Glacier received one important snowfall on 17 19 September of 25mm w.e. This snowfall abruptly changed the surface conditions by varying the surface albedo from 0.19 to 0.73. light snowfalls, observed from 13 to 16 September 2013 and from 24 to 30 September 2013, were only able to protect the glacier from high melting for some days but could not maintain a persistent snow cover as in mid-september 2012. 12/4/2017 15
Runoff contribution modelling using RCM data (1) Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model v.4 (RCA4); (2) REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO); and (3) Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Mean monthly runoff and relative run-off contribution from snowmelt (cyan) and glacier melt (red). Values are averages for the periods 1955 99 (bold lines) and 2000 14 (dashed lines). Mean monthly precipitation sum from the RCM datasets, provided to the mass-balance model as snow (grey) and rain (black). Values are averages for the period 1951 2014. Engelhardt, Ramanathan et al. 2016_JoG
Glacier length changes under different climatic scenarios These climatic scenarios have been named as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.6. They predict a temperature rise of 2.36, 3.49, 3.68 and 5.51 C with respect to 1860 1990 mean, respectively, in the Western Himalaya Karakorm over the next 100 years. Gantayat et al. 2017 If the mean temperature for the period 1990 2009 was assumed to be the mean temperature after 2009, the glacier can be expected to retreat by 4 km and lose 73% of 2009 volume by AD 2109. Under RCP 2.6 and 4.5 situations, the glacier is expected to retreat by 6 and 6.6 km as well as lose 92% and 97% of its 2009 volume, respectively. RCP 6 conditions, the glacier is expected to retreat by 7 km. RCP 8.5 conditions, a steep decrease in the glacier length is to be expected after 2090 because the glacier breaks into fragments.
New initiative-to understand the factors controlling MB on a wide-scale COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and MAss balance model (COSIMA)-Firn elevation change Model (FecMo) Why COSIMA-FecMo? o so far no distributed MB/EB model in the Himalayas o firn compaction model will be helpful for the representative glacier o to improve the understanding of drivers of the SMB in the region with respect to the ISM and MLW influence
Chhota shigri and Patsio Snow Pit: 2015 Snow pit of Chhota Shigri and Patsio glacier. Top layer have distinct 17 O-excess as compare to the middle depth. Unpublished work-prepeared for submission
Our Main project by the Indians at Ny-Alesund Title: Mass Balance And Dynamics Of Selected Glaciers Of Spitsbergen, Svalbard RIS-ID: 10314 Sponsored by: Ministry of Earth Sciences, India and NCAOR, Goa Collaborators: NCAOR, JNU,GSI and IIG The main purpose of this joint proposal is to study the rapid changes in Spitsbergen, Svalbard glaciers by initiating observational network at few key glaciers to collect, interpret and model data on various scientific parameters and conduct a long-term monitoring mass balance, glacier dynamics, ice flux, hydrology and sub-glacial hydrology. 04-12-2017
Our Main project by the Indians at Ny-Alesund 04-12-2017
Annual smb(m we) Accumulation/ablation(cm we) Altitude(m) Mass Balance of Vestre Broggerbreen glacier 150 100 50 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 -300 Winter and summer accumulation/ablation(cmwe) of year 2015-16 over Vestre broggerbreen R² = 0.7168 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 R² = 0.8644 Altitude(m) winter Summer Specific annual ablation/accumulation at Vestre Broggerbreen for year 2011-12,2012-13,2013-14,2014-15 & 2015-16 600 2012 2013 500 2014 2015 2016 400 300 200 100 0-300 -200-100 0 100 200 Ablation/accumulation(cm we) Annual SMB (m we) of Vestre Broggerbreen, Arctic 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 -0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1 -1.2-1.4 Year
So, research not ends up here! A lot to more to understand Comprehensive long term in-situ monitoring of glacial melt and its contribution to rivers Robust scientific findings to better understand the complexities and to reduce scientific uncertainty. Intra and Inter scientific cooperation is needed to accurately assess regional climate change impacts on Himalayan glaciers. Incorporate of Regional Climate Models and Snow and Ice melt models Glacier mass balance, Energy balance and Hydrological balance Ice core and Ice thickness 12/4/2017 24
A view of Karakoram from Stok glacier (Zanskar range) Thank You!! Photo: Mohd. Soheb