University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally 2014 Marketing Outlook Forum - Outlook for 2015 Wrap Up Suzanne Cook Suzanne Cook Consulting, LLC Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttra Cook, Suzanne, "Wrap Up" (2016). Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally. 31. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttra/2014marketing/proceedings/31 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact scholarworks@library.umass.edu.
Consumers are feeling more cheerful December 2007 6
March 2007 = 100 108) Source: MMGY Global, travelhorizons TM
Why is the US economy poised to accelerate? 1. Labor market dynamics improving 2. Further payroll gains expected 3. Rising consumer confidence 4. Increasing wealth and deleveraged household sector 5. Household spending to gain momentum 6. Signs of business investment strengthening 7. Housing to pick up (though risks remain) 8. Policy should remain favorable 9
Global economy on a modest growth path Eurozone improving, but risks remain (deflation, Ukraine) Japan on a modest expansion path with inflation trending up, but questions around the resilience of the economy (tax hike). Economic growth in China now expected to come close to the government s 7.5% growth target for this year and slower next year. Outlook for other emergers is less positive. Strengthening dollar will make travel to U.S. more expensive.
DKSA PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM
The Return of the Mainliner Bigger airplanes are part of the answer. High fuel prices assure this. But bigger airplanes at projected demand levels means that consolidation of traffic must occur. Fewer commercial airports. Fewer hubs. Fewer routes. Fewer flights.
DKSA PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM
Interest Respondent Personally 10 - Extremely Interested 9 8 7 6 or below 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 37% 36% 34% 34% 39% 10% 11% 12% 14% 10% 13% 14% 17% 17% 13% 18% 18% 17% 15% 18% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20% Theme Parks Zoos Aquariums Museums Amusement Parks
Interest Respondent Personally 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% 54% 58% 54% 68% 79% 11% 11% 8% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 8% 13% 10% 11% 13% 9% 7% 14% 8% 5% 12% 12% 10% 5% 7% 5% Outdoor Water Park 10 - Extremely Interested 9 8 7 6 or below Family Ent. Center Indoor Water Park Cultural Centers Specialty Sports Parks Extreme Sports Parks
World Outbound Travel 2009 2014 Promotable Business Travel Is Outperforming 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% +61% +44% Global Know How Tanking +27% Incentive Convention Conference / Congress +4% Exhibition / Trade Fair Financial Crisis -10% Traditional Source: World Travel Monitor 2009 2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 28
DKSA PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM
U.S. Business Travel by Trip Purpose Transient: 2014 snap-back from slower 2013, plus both rising spend-per-trip and travel inflation Group Meeting: 2013 trips way up after two years of pent-up demand. 2014 trips down on cyclical snap-back but spending is up on a per trip basis and via higher travel inflation Yr-to-Yr % Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% GBTA U.S. Transient Trips & Spending 7.0% 6.7% 6.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% -0.4% 2.7% 2.3% -1.2% -9.6% Yr-to-Yr % Change 10% 5% 0% -5% GBTA U.S. Group Trips & Spending 8.3% 7.1% 7.2% 8.6% 5.9% 5.9% 3.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% -0.6% -3.3% -6.7% -15% -20% -14.7% Person-Trips Spending 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-10% -15% -11.1% Person-Trips Spending 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics 2014 GBTA. All rights reserved. 31
World Outbound Travel 2009 2014 World Outbound Trip Performance 985 million Trips 1100 1000 900 +7% +5% +4% +4%* +5% 800 700 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 +28% Mean growth: 45 Million more outbound trips per year Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 37
Our Forecast for World Outbound Travel 2015 + 6% Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey 2009-2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 38
Our Outbound Travel Forecast 2015 Asia +8 % South America +4 % North America +5 % Europe +5 % Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey 2009-2014 (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR OR 39
10K Dow! Japan, Germany, UK at historic records. 9-11. Domestic drops; Int plummets. SARS. Domestic stalls then zooms. Int declines continue. Bubblicious. Domestic zooms. Int ZOOMS! Recession. Domestic plummets and stalls. Int plummets then fully recovers. Eco-Funk. Domestic low-growth forecast. Int growth stronger.? National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce 40
100 USA arrivals in millions 80 60 40 51.2 46.9 43.6 41.2 46.1 49.2 51.0 56.1 58.0 55.1 60.0 62.8 66.7 69.8 73.9 76.6 79.1 82.3 85.4 88.3 20 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14(f) 15(f) 16(f) 17(f) 18(f) 19(f) Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel and Tourism Office; Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada. -- Fall 2014 Travel Forecast National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce 41
Overview of Top 10 Percentile of U.S. Households The linked image cannot be displaye d. The The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and
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Big Data Quotes + I keep saying that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians, and I m not kidding. Hal Varian, chief economist at Google. + "The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight." Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of HP. Source: CEOworld