Tourism Trends Humphrey Walwyn Head of VisitEngland Research October 2018 1
England Research & Evaluation GBTS - Overnights (statutory research & official statistic) GBDVS - Day (statutory/ official) Occupancy (statutory/ official) Annual Attractions Survey (official) Business monitor Discover England Fund research programme Brand tracker Evaluation 2
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Domestic holiday trips have grown over the longer term, whilst VFR and business trips have slightly declined (m) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.3% VFR -0.9% Business -0.1% Source: GBTS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from June 2017-June 2018 3
Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 2017 saw strong growth in domestic holidays, which has carried over into this year. Encouragingly, VFR and business trips have started to show signs of recovery (m) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.3% VFR -0.9% Business -0.1% Past 12 Months Holiday +3.3% VFR +3.2% Business +8.5% Source: GBTS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for June 2018 vs. June 2017. 4
The number of domestic holidays taken in 2017 in England equalled the record that was set in 2009 (staycation boom) Domestic holidays in England 2017 47.2m Increase in domestic holidays in England in 2017 vs. 2016 +6% Equalled the record previously set in 2009 at the time of the staycation boom Source: GBTS 5
7 out of 9 English regions increased in domestic holiday trips year on year in 2017 North West 2017 vs. 2016 increase +17% On par with record volume of 2009 North East 2017 vs. 2016 increase +24% Highest volume since 2013 South East 2017 vs. 2016 decrease -13% But this followed +16% increase in 2016 vs. 2015 Source: GBTS 6
Short trips growth trend continues, however longer trips also saw growth in 2017. (m) 35 Domestic Holiday in England 2006-2017 Av. Annual Growth 2017 vs 2016 30 +2% +7% 25 20 15 0% +3% 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1-3 nights 4+ nights Source: GBTS 7
All months of 2017 were above the long-term average for domestic holidays in England. (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Average 06-17 2016 2017 2018 8 Source: GBTS
Most months of 2018 have been above average for holiday trips to England, with May particularly strong (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Average 06-17 2016 2017 2018 9 Source: GBTS
Overnight trips have grown year on year in January to June. Holidays continue to increase, and VFR and business trips have shown signs of recovery % change in domestic overnight trips, Jan-June 2018 in England (vs. previous year) Overnight trips of all purposes 3% 4% Spend Holiday VFR Business 4% 1% 4% 7% 4% 4% 9% 11% Source: GBTS Spend Spend Spend 10
Domestic day visits volume has declined over six years. However, value has increased, but under inflation. (m) 1800 1600 1400 1200 Domestic Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 60,000 50,000 Av. Annual Growth Total Day Visits Volume -1.8% Value +0.5% 1000 40,000 800 30,000 600 400 200 20,000 10,000 0 - Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for August 18 vs. August 17. 11
Activities core to tourism have declined in volume at a lower rate than total day visits. Value has increased above inflation. (m) 1800 Activities Core to Tourism Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 Av. Annual Growth 1600 1400 1200 60,000 50,000 1000 40,000 800 30,000 600 400 200 0 20,000 10,000 - Core Tourism Activities Volume -0.6% Value +2% Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for August 18 vs. August 17. 12
Summer Total Day Visits continued to decline year on year. Activities core to tourism were flat year on year, but increased value. (m) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Activities Core to Tourism Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Jun-Aug 18 vs Jun-Aug 17 Total Day Visits Volume -1.8% Value +0.5% 800 600 400 200 0 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Core Tourism Activities Volume 0% Value +13% Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for August 18 vs. August 17. 13
The gap between consumer confidence in their Personal Financial Situation vs the General Economic Situation is the largest it s been since the financial crisis General Economic Situation - next 12 months Personal Financial Situation - next 12 months 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0 32pts -20.0 30pts -30.0-40.0-50.0 Jul-18 Jan-18 Jul-17 Jan-17 Jul-16 Jan-16 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Source: GfK / Eurostat Consumer Confidence Monitor non-seasonally Adjusted 14
Inbound Trends 15
2017 was a record year for inbound tourism. England saw a 4% increase in trips and an 8% increase in spend year on year. (m) 40 35 Inbound Tourism to England 2007-2017 34.3m Spend ( bn) 40 35 30 30 25 25 20 15 21.4bn 20 15 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 Spend Source: IPS 16
Q1 2018 shows decline in visits and spend year on year, but this is coming off the back of a record Q1 2017 (m) 10 9 Inbound Tourism to England Q1 2007-2017 4.0bn Spend ( bn) 4 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6.8m 3 2 1 - Spend Source: IPS 17
Attractions Performance 18
More attractions reported increased visitor numbers than reduced numbers throughout 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers 56 63 54 49 51 54 31-15 -19-14 -24-19 -24 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep 18-56 Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 19
In 2018, attractions reported a tough Easter, but most believe that the summer holiday period was better than in 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers 56 63 54 49 51 54 31-15 -19-14 -24-19 -24 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep 18-56 Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 20
More attractions reported increased visitors as a result of the summer heatwave, but over 1 in 4 stated that their numbers were down as a result. Impact of summer heatwave - attractions 14 25 33 +11% net 20 8 Much more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly more visitors than usual Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual 21 Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business?
Over half of outdoor attractions reported increased visitor numbers as a result of the summer heatwave. Indoor attractions were less positive, with around 1/3 reporting reduced numbers Impact of summer heatwave - attractions 20 7 17 34 +32% net -10% net 42 24 18 4 Outdoor 23 11 Indoor Much more visitors than usual Slightly more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual 22 Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business?
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