Central Highlands Regional Population Forum, Emerald, 18 February 25 Central Highlands Regional Population Forum Presenters: Alison Taylor and Ross Barker Planning Information and Forecasting Unit Department of Local Government and Planning
The Program 9.3 Welcome Cr Peter Maguire 9.4 Current population trends Alison Taylor» Introduction» Current & past patterns of growth 1.3 Morning tea 11. Population concepts workshop Ross Barker» Understanding population terms» Discussion 12. Lunch 1. Population projections» Current projections (Alison Taylor)» Belyando case study (Ross Barker) 2.3 Afternoon tea 3. Action planning in groups 4.3 Thanks Cr Tim Stevenson
Current patterns of growth Population trends last 2 years Local government areas Urban centres and localities Indicators of current growth School enrolments Mining industry workers estimates Socio-economic characteristics Age structure Broad characteristics Journey to work patterns
Bowen Basin population change 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 12,629 1,742 3,259 2,617 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-1 Peak Downs (S) Nebo(S) Emerald (S) Duaringa(S) Broadsound (S) Bowen(S) Belyando (S) Banana(S) Bauhinia(S)
More recent population estimates 8 6 4 2-2 Peak Downs (S) Nebo(S) Emerald (S) Duaringa(S) Broadsound (S) Bowen(S) Belyando (S) Bauhinia(S) Banana(S) -4 21-2 22-3(p) Source: ABS, Cat No 3218.
Average annual pop change 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-1 Banana(S) 329-41 -223 113 Bauhinia(S) -3-18 -25 3 Belyando (S) 592-46 -18-162 Bowen(S) 22-14 -7-147 Broadsound (S) 294-4 -24-214 Duaringa(S) 291-24 -264-315 Emerald (S) 293 87 544 98 Nebo(S) 289 44-55 -33 Peak Downs (S) 248 117-119 4 Total Bowen Basin LGAs 2,526-348 -523-652 Source: ABS, Cat No 3218.
Recent average annual pop change 1996-1 21-2 22-3 Banana(S) 113-59 -9 Bauhinia(S) 3 6-14 Belyando (S) -162 291 249 Bowen(S) -147 122 1 Broadsound (S) -214 8-7 Duaringa(S) -315-7 5 Emerald (S) 98 29 93 Nebo(S) -33 3 6 Peak Downs (S) 4 112-11 Woorabinda AC na 1 Total Bowen Basin LGAs -652 622 232 Source: ABS, Cat No 3218.
Towns that grew from very little 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 Glenden Middlemount Nebo Tieri Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing
Towns that declined 1981-21 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 Blackwater Collinsville Dysart Moura Springsure Theodore Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing
Towns that grew 1981-21 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 Biloela Capella Clermont Emerald Moranbah Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing
Population estimates for urban centres and localities UCL 1,996 2,1 2,3 change 1-3 Biloela 5,269 5,714 5,496-218 Blackwater 6,34 4,838 4,747-91 Capella (L) 735 731 754 23 Clermont 2,376 1,994 2,99 15 Collinsville 2,76 2,45 2,87 42 Dysart 3,635 2,598 2,476-122 Emerald 9,282 9,793 1,81 288 Glenden (L) 1,388 92 914 12 Middlemount 2,223 2,115 2,2-95 Moranbah 6,757 6,281 6,673 392 Moura 1,999 1,933 1,831-12 Nebo (L) 195 224 29 Springsure (L) 661 76 848 88 Theodore (L) 525 464 445-19 Tieri 1,615 1,66 1,61 4 Total 44,575 41,969 42,35 336
Locality population change 21-3 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Biloela Blackwater Capella (L) Clermont Collinsville Dysart Emerald Middlemount Moranbah Moura Nebo (L) Springsure (L)
Population change between 1996-21, Bowen Basin Localities 8 6 4 2-4 5-9 1-14 15-19 2-24 25-29 3-34 35-39 4-44 45-49 5-54 55-59 6-64 65-69 7-74 75-79 8-84 85+ -2-4 -6 Population Change -8-1, -1,2 Age
Graph 2: Changing age structure 3 2 Males 1 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 -4 1 2 3 4 Females 21 1996 Bowen Basin Localities Graph 3: Changing age structure, Queensland 15 1 Males 5 Queensland 85+ 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 1-14 5-9 -4 5 1 15 Females 21 1996
Primary school enrolments - one indicator of recent change 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 21 22 23 24 25 Banana(S) Bauhinia(S) Belyando (S) Bowen(S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa(S) Emerald (S) Nebo(S) Peak Downs (S) Source: QED
Secondary school enrolments - one indicator of recent change 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 2,2 23 24 25 Banana(S) Bauhinia(S) Belyando (S) Bowen(S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa(S) Emerald (S) Nebo(S) Peak Downs (S) Source: QED
Mining industry workers by location on Census night 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 Banana (S) 1,173 1,26 1,51 1,5 657 Bauhinia (S) 13 87 64 16 45 Belyando (S) 1,22 291 212 268 1591 Bow en (S) 589 651 575 279 267 Broadsound (S) 1,16 1,722 1,724 1,652 1,17 Duaringa (S) 1,28 1,779 1,591 1,468 1,32 Emerald (S) 434 429 54 1,149 735 Nebo (S) 6 39 474 521 544 Peak Dow ns (S) 66 464 631 616 542 Bow en Basin LGAs 6,4 8,873 8,626 8,864 6,538 Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing
Mining industry workers by location on Census night 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 Peak Downs (S) Nebo (S) Emerald (S) Duaringa (S) Broadsound (S) Bowen (S) Belyando (S) Bauhinia (S) Banana (S) Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing
Changing coal industry employment, Bowen Basin Northern & Central Districts 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 As at January Northern Opencut Central Opencut Northern Underground Central Underground
Coal industry employment estimates Northern District 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Northern Opencut Northern Underground
Coal industry employment estimates Central District 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 Central Opencut Central Underground
Socio-economic characteristics of Bowen Basin communities Housing Lots of private rental Many in non-private dwellings Comparatively well-off More clerical, sales & service jobs, plus professionals & managers Growth in services & trade industries 4% of Queensland s mining jobs, but are they residents?
Tenure type 21 Fully owned 2% Being purchased 1% Housing Authority 1% Other rented 32% Other 13% Being purchased 16% Fully owned 36% Other 9% Other rented 87% Housing Authority 3% Bowen Basin Localities Middlemount
Persons in non-private dwellings 21 Accomm. for etired or aged 8% Bowen Basin Localities Other 18% Hotel/motel 32% Nursing home % Board school/college /hall of res 2% Accomm. for retired or aged Public/private/ % psych hospital % Middlemoun Other 4% Hotel/motel 4% ursing home 2% Public/private/ psych hospital 9% Board school/college /hall of res 6% Nurse/staff quarters 25% Nurse/staff quarters 9%
Distribution of weekly individual income, Bowen Basin Localities, 21 16. % 14. % 12. % 1. % 8. % 6. % Negative/nil income $1-$39 $4-$79 $8-$119 $12-$159 $16-$199 $2-$299 $3-$399 $4-$499 $5-$599 $6-$699 $7-$799 $8-$999 $1-$1499 $15 or more 4. % 2. %. % Bowen Basin Queensland Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing Per cent
Change in occupation 1996-21, Bowen Basin Localities Labourers & related Elementary clerical, sales & service Intermediate production & transport Intermediate clerical, sales & service Advanced clerical & service Tradespersons & related Associate professionals Professionals Managers & administrators -2% -15% -1% -5% % 5% % Change 1996 to 21 Source: ABS, Census of Population & Housing
Change in industry 1996-21, Bowen Basin Localities Personal and other services Cultural and recreational services Health and community services Education Government admininstration and defence Property and business services Finance and insurance Communication services Transport and storage Accommodation, cafes and restaurants Retail trade Wholesale trade Construction Electricity, gas and water supply Manufacturing Mining Agriculture, forestry and fishing -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% % Change 1996 to 21
Journey to work analysis In an area there are: A number of jobs occupied by workers who are either residents or from outside the area A number of workers who either work In the area or Outside the area
Journey to work patterns, 21 Total jobs Employed Residents Work in another LGA No. % Banana (S) Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) Bowen (S) Broadsound (S) 6,611 1,219 4,673 5,233 3,295 6,479 1,173 4,48 4,862 2,982 537 25 51 316 547 8.3 17. 11.4 6.5 18.3 Duaringa (S) 3,862 3,18 424 13.3 Emerald (S) 6,71 6,149 53 8.2 Nebo (S) 1,652 927 159 17.2 Peak Downs (S) 1,59 1,378 256 18.6 Bowen Basin 34,836 31,538
Where residents worked, 21 7, 8% 8% 6, 5, 7% 11% 4, 18% 13% 3, 2, 17% 17% 19% 1, Number of employed people Banana (S) Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) Bowen (S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa (S) Emerald (S) Nebo (S) Peak Downs (S) % reflects share of residents who work outside home LGA Work locally Work elsewhere
Jobs held by non-resident workers, 21 Total jobs Employed Residents Jobs held by non-residents No. % Banana (S) 6,611 6,479 84 12.2 Bauhinia (S) 1,219 1,173 268 22. Belyando (S) Bowen (S) 4,673 5,233 4,48 4,862 862 796 18.4 15.2 Broadsound (S) 3,295 2,982 929 28.2 Duaringa (S) 3,862 3,18 1,22 31.1 Emerald (S) 6,71 6,149 1,183 17.7 Nebo (S) 1,652 927 94 54.7 Peak Downs (S) 1,59 1,378 496 31.2 Bowen Basin 34,836 31,538
Where workers live, 21 8, 7, 12% 18% 6, 15% 18% 5, 31% 4, 28% 3, 55% 2, 22% 1, Number of jobs Banana (S) Bauhinia (S) Belyando (S) Bowen (S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa (S) Emerald (S) Nebo (S) Peak Downs (S) % reflects share of local jobs held by non residents Live in LGA Live outside NFA 31%
Jobs in the mining industry, 21 25 LGAs in Queensland had more than 1 jobs in mining LGA Top 2 LGAs each had more than 2 jobs in mining Brisbane (C) 8 of top 2 LGAs in Mt Isa (C) Bowen Basin Belyando (S) Total of 17,368 jobs in mining in Queensland 4% of mining jobs in Duaringa (S) Bowen Basin Broadsound (S) Source: ABS, 21 Census, Customised matrix No. o jobs 2,2 2,14 1,56 1,21 1,
1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Jobs in the mining industry in Bowen Basin LGAs, 9% 21 7% 5.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.8% 3.5% 2% Belyando (S) Broadsound (S) Duaringa (S) Emerald (S) Nebo (S) Banana (S) Peak Downs (S) Bowen (S) Bauhinia (S) % reflects share of total mining industry jobs in Queensland
Emerald (S) journey to work patterns, 21 6,71 jobs in Shire, 6,149 employed residents 8% of employed residents worked outside the Shire (53 people) NFA-128, Peak Downs-112, Bauhinia-93, Duaringa-88, ---Brisbane-22, Mackay-13 18% of jobs filled by non-residents (1,183 people) Duaringa-149, Thuringowa-141 (Townsville- 98), Peak Downs-133, Bauhinia-8 Cooloola-55, Rocky-5, Livingstone-49, Brisbane-22
Nebo & Emerald different functions 6, 5, 4, Local Jobs Nebo (S) imports workers from nearby Mackay (C) 3, Local Workers 2, 1, Nebo (S) Emerald (S) 6, 5, 4, Residents Non-residents 3, 2, Emerald (S) is a service and accommodation centre 1, Nebo (S) In LGA Outside Emerald (S)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Nebo (S) industry structure, 21 Manufacturing Elect, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accomm, Cafes & Rest Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Prop & Business Services Govt Admin & Defence Education Health & Comm Services Cultural & Rec Services Personal & Other Services Ag, Forestry & Fishing M ining Number of jobs
12 1 8 6 4 2 Emerald (S) industry structure, 21 Ag, Forestry & Fishing Mining Manufacturing Elect, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accomm, Cafes & Rest Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Prop & Business Services Govt Admin & Defence Education Health & Comm Services Cultural & Rec Services Personal & Other Services Number of jobs