Voter Age Population Projections for South Australia, 2014 For the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission August 2011
Voter Age Population Projections for South Australia, 2014 For the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission For further information Please visit www.dplg.sa.gov.au or contact the Strategic Policy Division of the Department of Planning and Local Government on 08 8303 0600. Disclaimer While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that this document is correct at the time of publication, the Minister for Urban Development, Planning and the City of Adelaide, the State of South Australia, its agencies, instrumentalities, employees and contractors disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect to anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of this document. Government of South Australia. Published 2011. All rights reserved. ISBN 978-0-7590-0157-2 FIS 23277
Contents CONTENTS 1...INTRODUCTION...1 1.1... Purpose of Report...1 1.2... Status of Projections...1 1.3... Structure of Report...2 2...RECENT POPULATION TRENDS AND DISTRIBUTION...3 2.1... Components of Population Change...3 2.2... Overview of Population Trends...4 2.3... Population trends for Statistical Local Areas, 2006-2010...10 3...RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS...23 3.1... Scope and Coverage...23 3.2... Results...24 3.3... Mapping...25 4...POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIA, STATISTICAL DIVISIONS AND STATISTICAL LOCAL AREAS...27 4.1... South Australia...27 4.2... Population Projections for Statistical Divisions...28 4.3... Statistical Local Area Projections...29 4.4... Methodology for Projecting Voter Age Populations by Census Collection District in the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions (excluding Kangaroo Island) in 2014...29 4.5... Methodology for Projecting Voting Age Population in 2014 by Census Collection District in Regional South Australia...31 4.5... Validation of the Projections...34 5...2014 PROJECTION RESULTS BY CURRENT ELECTORAL DISTRICTS...35 6...BIBLIOGRAPHY...37 i
Contents LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Population Change, Statistical Divisions of South Australia, 1996-2010 6 Table 2: Estimated Resident Population, Statistical Local Areas of South Australia, 2006-2010 11 Table 3: Proposed Dwellings from Major Residential Developments by Electorate, 2010-2014 24 Table 4: Projected Total Population and Voting Age Population in 2010 and 2014 by Statistical Division in South Australia (DPLG Medium series) 28 Table 5: Projected Population, 18 years and over, by Electorate, 2010 and 2014 35 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Components of Population Change, South Australia 1987-2010 (annualised totals) 4 Figure 2: Statistical Divisions and Electoral Districts - Metropolitan Adelaide 7 Figure 3: Statistical Divisions and Electoral Districts - Outer Metropolitan Adelaide 8 Figure 4: Statistical Divisions and Electoral Districts - Rest of South Australia 9 Figure 5: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Rest of South Australia 16 Figure 6: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Northern Metropolitan Adelaide 17 Figure 7: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Southern Metropolitan Adelaide 18 Figure 8: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Outer Metropolitan Adelaide 19 Figure 9: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Upper Spencer Gulf 20 Figure 10: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Yorke Peninsula 21 Figure 11: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - South East 22 APPENDICES Appendix A : Data Used to Develop Voting Age Population Projections 41 ii
Introduction 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose of Report In January 2011 the Electoral Commissioner for South Australia requested demographic advice and projections of the voting age population to assist the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission (EDBC) in its review of electoral boundaries in South Australia. The purpose of this report is to: Present an overview of recent trends in population and residential development across South Australia. Introduce the existing suite of population projections for Statistical Divisions and Statistical Local Areas that were developed by DPLG in 2010 and 2011. These existing projections are the basis of the small area projections developed for the EDBC. Describe the methods and assumptions used to produce the Census Collection District (CD) 1 level voter age population projections to 2014. Summarise the results of the 2014 voter age projections by current electoral districts. The Department of Planning and Local Government (DPLG) has supplied the Commission with a digital file containing projections of the voting age population to 30 June 2014 by 2006 CD boundaries throughout South Australia. 1.2 Status of Projections The population projections presented in this report are final. They were produced specifically to assist the EDBC in its task of reviewing boundaries of the electorates in the House of Assembly. Users of the projections should note that the projections were prepared based on the results of the 2006 Population Census and recent 2010 Estimated Resident Population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Contemporary information about proposed residential and economic development activity was used to determine the spatial distribution of growth across Greater Adelaide, and in regional South Australia. 1 As defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in its Census Dictionary, 2006, the Census Collection District (CD) is the second smallest geographic area defined in the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC), the smallest being the Mesh Block. The CD has been designed for use in the Census of Population and Housing as the smallest unit for collection and processing. 1
Introduction 1.3 Structure of Report Section 2 includes an overview of the key population trends across South Australia, and presents summary tables and maps of population change between 2006 and 2010. Section 3 summarises and describes key residential development trends within current electorates. Section 4 discusses the existing suite of DPLG population projections (State, Statistical Divisions and Statistical Local Areas). It then describes the method used to prepare CD level voter age populations for the EDBC. Section 5 presents the 2014 voter age population projection results for the current electorates. Appendix A provides documentation about the data collected in the survey of major developments and the digital data provided to the EDBC. 2
Trends in Population 2. RECENT POPULATION TRENDS AND DISTRIBUTION This section provides a brief overview of the main trends in recent population growth and its distribution in South Australia. During the four year period ending 30 June 2010, the estimated resident population of South Australia increased by 76,694 persons from 1,567,888 at the 2006 census to 1,644,582 at 30 June 2010 (ABS, Cat 3101.0, published 23 June 2011). This is the most rapid increase in the State s population since 1975 with annual growth rates achieving 1.1 to 1.3% per annum, almost double the annual growth rates of between 0.5 and 0.7% experienced in the previous decade. However the scale of population growth peaked over the 12 months to December 2009 and has since decreased to 2006 levels (Figure 1). 2.1 Components of Population Change The components of population change comprise natural increase and migration. Natural increase is defined as births minus deaths. Net migration is the difference between inflow and outflow of migrants. The sum of natural increase and net migration equals population change. Natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration are shown at the State level in Figure 1. Natural increase declined from 9,000 in 1987 to a low of 5,200 in 2002-03, but has since recovered to over 7,500 in 2009-10, due to a significant increase in births over the last five years. In contrast, net interstate and especially net overseas migration levels have fluctuated widely. While net interstate migration losses have increased slightly above the long term average since 2006, net overseas migration has increased markedly since 2004. In the year ending December 2004 net overseas migration was about 5,100 persons, and by the year ending June 2009 it had increased more than threefold to peak at almost 18,000 persons. Since 2009 net overseas migration levels have decreased by 35% to just under 12,000 in the year ending December 2010, but this is still substantially higher than pre-2004 levels. The absolute levels of population growth in South Australia have averaged 18,400 per annum between 2005-06 and 2009-10 compared to just 9,500 a year for the five years prior to 2005. This dramatic growth of population was driven by the massive increase in net overseas migration that since 2004 has been the largest component of population growth in South Australia. Migration occurs in response to many factors: changes in Commonwealth Government immigration policies, family formation and disintegration, tertiary education, search for employment, new economic developments, restructuring and relocation of public and private sector enterprises, reduction in requirements for labour following investment in more capital intensive forms of production, farm amalgamations and so on. Besides interstate and overseas migration, intrastate migration has contributed to population movements within South Australia. The combination of these forms of migration has had different impacts on different parts of the State, and contributed to a range of outcomes in individual areas ranging from rapid population growth to decline. 3
Trends in Population Figure 1: Components of Population Change, South Australia 1987-2010 (annualised totals) 25,000 20,000 15,000 SA Natural Increase SA Net Overseas Migration SA Net Interstate Migration SA Population Change Highest level of net migration and population change for over 20 years has peaked Persons 10,000 5,000 0-5,000-10,000 Sep.1987 Sep.1988 Sep.1989 Sep.1990 Sep.1991 Sep.1992 Sep.1993 Sep.1994 Sep.1995 Sep.1996 Sep.1997 Sep.1998 Sep.1999 Sep.2000 Sep.2001 Sep.2002 Sep.2003 Sep.2004 Sep.2005 Sep.2006 Sep.2007 Sep.2008 Sep. 2009 Sep. 2010 Year ending Source: ABS Catalogue 3101.0, Australian Demographic Statistics released 23 June 2011. 2.2 Overview of Population Trends There have been three main trends in the distribution of population across South Australia over the last twenty years (refer Tables 1 and 2): Firstly, the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions have consistently been the location of the majority of the State s growth in population, leading to an increasing proportion of the State s population living in these two Statistical Divisions (currently 81.6% of the South Australian population live within this region). However, net migration losses from country areas slowed in 1996-2001, 2001-06 and 2006-10 compared with 1991-96. Secondly, the limited availability of land in established residential areas has resulted in further growth on the metropolitan fringe. In contrast, Local Government Areas in the south and north of the metropolitan area with large areas of land available for residential development such as Onkaparinga, Salisbury and Playford, have absorbed large proportions of the metropolitan area s recent population growth. In addition, the peri-urban townships of Mount Barker and Victor Harbor/Goolwa have grown strongly in recent years. Third, there has been an increased emphasis on facilitating redevelopment within the established areas of metropolitan Adelaide. This trend was evident prior to the release of the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide in February 2010 with increased levels of redevelopment having stabilised or increased population numbers in some inner and middle suburbs since 1996. In addition to this, major residential projects on surplus Government land, such as at Mawson Lakes and Northgate, have also boosted population in parts of the middle suburbs. This trend was given increased strategic emphasis in the targets set by the Plan. However, it is unlikely that by June 2014 the infill targets of the Plan will have had a significant impact on the distribution of voting age population. 4
Trends in Population The main trends at a regional level are summarised at the Australian Bureau of Statistics defined Statistical Division, Statistical Subdivision and Statistical Local Area (SLA) level (refer to Tables 1 and 2 and to Figures 2, 3 and 4 for maps of Statistical Divisions and Electorates): Adelaide Statistical Division has continued to receive the majority of the State s population growth (75%) between 2006 and 2010, with the annual rate of growth reaching 1.23% per annum over 2006-10 compared with 0.84 per annum between 2001 and 2006. This significant acceleration in population growth in the metropolitan area is in part a reflection of increased redevelopment in already established residential areas of the city in recent years. Outer Adelaide Statistical Division has retained its position as the fastest growing region in South Australia in percentage terms with an average annual growth rate of 2.02% per annum between 2006 and 2010, some 1.6 times that of the Adelaide Statistical Division. In 2010 this region accounted for 8.5% of the State s population compared with 8.2% in 2006 and 7.5% in 2001. However, the rate of growth in Outer Adelaide Statistical Division in 2006-10 was slower than the 2001-06 average annual growth rate of 2.27%, mainly due to the limited availability of land for residential development in many parts of the Adelaide Hills. The Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division experienced significant and accelerating population growth over the entire 1996-2010 period. In the four years between 2006 and 2010 Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division witnessed a population increase of 2,091 persons, twice the increase it experienced over the five year period 2001-06. The rate of growth over 2006-10 was 1.13% per annum, just marginally below the State s annual growth rate of 1.2%. The region has benefited from strong growth in the Copper Coast District Council that remains an attractive retirement location and holiday destination. In the Murray Lands Statistical Division there was slight growth of 0.11% per annum over the 1996-2001 period that has increased since to 0.44% per annum between 2006 and 2010. Murray Bridge Regional Council has shown significant population growth of 1.56% per annum between 2006 and 2010 and the major regional centre of Murray Bridge has increased its importance. The South East Statistical Division had slight population losses from 1996 to 2001, but recovered strongly in 2001-06 and 2006-10 to register population growth of 0.85% per annum between 2006 and 2010. Mount Gambier is a major centre for the South East and in 2006-10 accounted for almost half of the population growth in this Statistical Division. Since 1996 the Eyre Statistical Division has experienced significant annual rates of population growth that increased to 0.76% over the period 2006-10. However these rates of growth were from a relatively small base population and since 2001 have been below the State s annual rates of growth. Port Lincoln has become an increasingly important centre on the Eyre Peninsula and in the period 2006-10 accounted for half of the population growth in the Statistical Division. The Northern Statistical Division experienced continuous loss of population between 1981 and 2006, but since 2006 this trend has reversed with the region enjoying an estimated population increase of 2,000 persons between 2006 and 2010, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 0.6% which is half of the State s rate of growth. Despite this long period of population decline between 1981 and 2006, the region in 2010 accounted for almost 5% of the State s population, making it the most populous area outside of the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions. 5
Trends in Population Table 1: Population Change, Statistical Divisions of South Australia, 1996-2010 Statistical Division 1996 2001 2006 2010p Estimated resident population Adelaide 1,078,437 1,107,986 1,145,812 1,203,186 Outer Adelaide 104,331 113,992 128,770 139,489 Yorke & Lower North 44,150 44,398 45,494 47,585 Murray Lands 68,185 68,557 69,483 70,705 South East 62,707 62,588 64,492 66,724 Eyre 33,011 34,020 34,828 35,892 Northern 83,432 80,187 79,009 81,001 Total 1,474,253 1,511,728 1,567,888 1,644,582 Population distribution (per cent) Adelaide 73.15 73.29 73.08 73.16 Outer Adelaide 7.08 7.54 8.21 8.48 Yorke & Lower North 2.99 2.94 2.90 2.89 Murray Lands 4.63 4.54 4.43 4.30 South East 4.25 4.14 4.11 4.06 Eyre 2.24 2.25 2.22 2.18 Northern 5.66 5.30 5.04 4.93 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Population change (absolute) 1996-2001 2001-06 2006-10p Adelaide 29,549 37,826 57,374 Outer Adelaide 9,661 14,778 10,719 Yorke & Lower North 248 1,096 2,091 Murray Lands 372 926 1,222 South East -119 1,904 2,232 Eyre 1,009 808 1,064 Northern -3,245-1,178 1,992 Total 37,475 56,160 76,694 Annual rate of growth (% p.a.) Adelaide 0.54 0.84 1.23 Outer Adelaide 1.79 2.47 2.02 Yorke & Lower North 0.11 0.49 1.13 Murray Lands 0.11 0.27 0.44 South East -0.04 0.60 0.85 Eyre 0.60 0.47 0.76 Northern -0.79-0.30 0.62 Total 0.50 0.73 1.20 Source: ABS Cat 3218.0, various issues Note: p = preliminary and subject to revision 6
Trends in Population Figure 2: Statistical Divisions and Electoral Districts - Metropolitan Adelaide 7
Trends in Population Figure 3: Statistical Divisions and Electoral Districts - Outer Metropolitan Adelaide 8
Trends in Population Figure 4: Statistical Divisions and Electoral Districts Rest of South Australia 9
Trends in Population 2.3 Population trends for Statistical Local Areas, 2006-2010 As noted previously, during the four year period ending 30 June 2010 the estimated resident population of South Australia increased by 76,694 persons from 1,567,888 at the 2006 census to 1,644,582 at 30 June 2010 (ABS, Cat 3101.0, published 23 June 2011). Some 57,400 or 75% of this growth in population was located within the Adelaide Statistical Division of which 24,800 was within the Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) located within Northern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision (Table 2). Within Northern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision, Salisbury - Balance SLA, which includes the almost completed Mawson Lakes development, experienced the largest growth over the four year period of 5,480 persons. Other SLAs in Northern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision such as Playford - West, Port Adelaide-Enfield East, Salisbury South-East and Playford East Central had substantial population increases in the range of 1,800 to 2,800 persons, while other Northern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision SLAs such as Gawler, Playford West Central, Port Adelaide-Enfield Inner, Playford Elizabeth, Salisbury Inner North and Salisbury Central each had increases in population of between 1,200 and 1,700 persons in the four year period 2006-10. The Southern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision accounted for over 15,000 of the population increase in the Adelaide Statistical Division with Onkaparinga South Coast experiencing the largest increase of 5,270, and Marion Central and Onkaparinga North Coast enjoying population growth of 2,440 and 1,180 persons, respectively. Western and Eastern Adelaide Statistical Subdivisions each experienced about half of the absolute growth of Southern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision between 2006 and 2010 (8,800 and 8,600, respectively) with the SLAs within the Western Adelaide Statistical Subdivision of Port Adelaide-Enfield Park, Charles Sturt Coastal, Charles Sturt North-East, West Torrens West and West Torrens East experiencing population increases of over 1,000 persons in 2006-10. Within Eastern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision the central CBD SLA of Adelaide City had the largest population increase of 2,200 with Campbelltown West the only other SLA in Eastern Adelaide with a population growth of over 1,000 persons in 2006-10. During 2006-10 Outer Adelaide Statistical Division had a population growth of 10,700. The five SLAs of Mount Barker Central, Victor Harbor, Alexandrina Coastal, Alexandrina Strathalbyn and Light each had growth of over 1,000 persons and each enjoyed good access to the Adelaide metropolitan area. In regional South Australia only the SLAs of Copper Coast, Murray Bridge and Mount Gambier had population growth of over 1,000 persons, with Whyalla having a growth of 920 persons. Over the four years 2006-10 the only SLAs to experience population decreases in the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions were Tea-Tree Gully North and Onkaparinga Morphett because of the ageing of their populations. In regional South Australia population decreases were far more common, with 17 SLAs each posting losses of population although all of the losses were smaller than 100 persons except in the case of The Coorong that saw a decrease of 111 persons. See Figures 5 to 11 for maps of SLA population change between 2006 and 2010. 10
Trends in Population Table 2: Estimated Resident Population, Statistical Local Areas of South Australia, 2006-2010 SLA Name 2006 2010p Change Percent ADELAIDE STATISTICAL DIVISION Northern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision Gawler (T) 19,409 21,041 1,632 8.4 Playford (C) - East Central 20,770 22,655 1,885 9.1 Playford (C) - Elizabeth 25,146 26,512 1,366 5.4 Playford (C) - Hills 3,470 3,687 217 6.3 Playford (C) - West 9,261 12,028 2,767 29.9 Playford (C) - West Central 13,365 14,968 1,603 12.0 Port Adel. Enfield (C) - East 32,157 34,757 2,600 8.1 Port Adel. Enfield (C) - Inner 19,969 21,364 1,395 7.0 Salisbury (C) - Central 27,832 29,038 1,206 4.3 Salisbury (C) - Inner North 24,947 26,166 1,219 4.9 Salisbury (C) - North-East 22,622 22,872 250 1.1 Salisbury (C) - South-East 36,038 37,999 1,961 5.4 Salisbury (C) Bal 10,916 16,398 5,482 50.2 Tea Tree Gully (C) - Central 26,024 26,569 545 2.1 Tea Tree Gully (C) - Hills 12,225 12,694 469 3.8 Tea Tree Gully (C) - North 27,975 27,873-102 -0.4 Tea Tree Gully (C) - South 33,098 33,457 359 1.1 Total Northern Adelaide 365,224 390,078 24,854 6.8 Western Adelaide Statistical Subdivision Charles Sturt (C) - Coastal 31,164 32,265 1,101 3.5 Charles Sturt (C) - Inner East 22,052 22,968 916 4.2 Charles Sturt (C) - Inner West 24,497 25,455 958 3.9 Charles Sturt (C) - North-East 26,558 27,644 1,086 4.1 Port Adel. Enfield (C) - Coast 28,412 29,299 887 3.1 Port Adel. Enfield (C) - Park 15,245 16,881 1,636 10.7 Port Adel. Enfield (C) - Port 10,724 10,956 232 2.2 West Torrens (C) - East 24,961 25,962 1,001 4.0 West Torrens (C) - West 29,202 30,207 1,005 3.4 Unincorp. Western 3 3 0 0.0 Total Western Adelaide 212,818 221,640 8,822 4.1 Eastern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision Adelaide (C) 17,632 19,876 2,244 12.7 Adelaide Hills (DC) - Central 13,031 13,177 146 1.1 Adelaide Hills (DC) - Ranges 10,478 10,534 56 0.5 Burnside (C) - North-East 21,973 22,283 310 1.4 Burnside (C) - South-West 21,823 22,166 343 1.6 Campbelltown (C) - East 27,944 28,856 912 3.3 Campbelltown (C) - West 19,856 20,860 1,004 5.1 Norw. P'ham St Ptrs (C) - East 16,625 17,230 605 3.6 Norw. P'ham St Ptrs (C) - West 18,649 19,268 619 3.3 Prospect (C) 20,134 21,105 971 4.8 Unley (C) - East 19,942 20,670 728 3.7 Unley (C) - West 17,596 18,097 501 2.8 11
Trends in Population Walkerville (M) 7,242 7,408 166 2.3 Total Eastern Adelaide 232,925 241,530 8,605 3.7 Southern Adelaide Statistical Subdivision Holdfast Bay (C) - North 19,988 20,611 623 3.1 Holdfast Bay (C) - South 14,685 15,312 627 4.3 Marion (C) - Central 33,567 36,009 2,442 7.3 Marion (C) - North 25,809 26,765 956 3.7 Marion (C) - South 21,976 22,624 648 2.9 Mitcham (C) - Hills 24,970 25,560 590 2.4 Mitcham (C) - North-East 16,020 16,316 296 1.8 Mitcham (C) - West 23,244 23,816 572 2.5 Onkaparinga (C) - Hackham 14,177 14,751 574 4.0 Onkaparinga (C) - Hills 11,619 12,361 742 6.4 Onkaparinga (C) - Morphett 23,754 23,659-95 -0.4 Onkaparinga (C) - North Coast 17,794 18,975 1,181 6.6 Onkaparinga (C) - Reservoir 25,848 26,225 377 1.5 Onkaparinga (C) - South Coast 25,895 31,166 5,271 20.4 Onkaparinga (C) - Woodcroft 35,499 35,788 289 0.8 Total Southern Adelaide 334,845 349,938 15,093 4.5 Total Adelaide 1,145,812 1,203,186 57,374 5.0 OUTER ADELAIDE STATISTICAL DIVISION 2006 2010p Change Percent Barossa Statistical Subdivision Barossa (DC) - Angaston 8,207 8,979 772 9.4 Barossa (DC) - Barossa 8,287 8,853 566 6.8 Barossa (DC) - Tanunda 4,886 5,076 190 3.9 Light (RegC) 12,830 13,984 1,154 9.0 Mallala (DC) 8,203 8,535 332 4.0 Total Barossa 42,413 45,427 3,014 7.1 Kangaroo Island Statistical Subdivision Kangaroo Island (DC) 4,456 4,661 205 4.6 Total Kangaroo Island 4,456 4,661 205 4.6 Mt Lofty Ranges Statistical Subdivision Adelaide Hills (DC) - North 6,905 7,058 153 2.2 Adelaide Hills (DC) Bal 9,094 9,303 209 2.3 Mount Barker (DC) - Central 18,950 21,373 2,423 12.8 Mount Barker (DC) Bal 8,684 9,167 483 5.6 Total Mt Lofty Ranges 43,633 46,901 3,268 7.5 Fleurieu Statistical Subdivision Alexandrina (DC) - Coastal 11,921 13,232 1,311 11.0 Alexandrina (DC) - Strathalbyn 9,574 10,636 1,062 11.1 Victor Harbor (C) 12,470 13,971 1,501 12.0 Yankalilla (DC) 4,303 4,661 358 8.3 Total Fleurieu 38,268 42,500 4,232 11.1 Total Outer Adelaide 128,770 139,489 10,719 8.3 12
Trends in Population YORKE AND LOWER NORTH STATISTICAL DIVISION 2006 2010p Change Percent Yorke Statistical Subdivision Barunga West (DC) 2,625 2,634 9 0.3 Copper Coast (DC) 11,807 13,144 1,337 11.3 Yorke Peninsula (DC) - North 7,616 7,714 98 1.3 Yorke Peninsula (DC) - South 4,013 4,068 55 1.4 Unincorp. Yorke 0 0 0 0.0 Total Yorke 26,061 27,560 1,499 5.8 Lower North Statistical Subdivision Clare and Gilbert Valleys (DC) 8,483 8,882 399 4.7 Goyder (DC) 4,329 4,287-42 -1.0 Wakefield (DC) 6,621 6,856 235 3.5 Total Lower North 19,433 20,025 592 3.0 Total Yorke and Lower North 45,494 47,585 2,091 4.6 MURRAY LANDS STATISTICAL DIVISION 2006 2010p Change Percent Riverland Statistical Subdivision Berri & Barmera (DC) - Barmera 4,291 4,223-68 -1.6 Berri & Barmera (DC) - Berri 7,100 7,047-53 -0.7 Loxton Waikerie (DC) - East 7,412 7,433 21 0.3 Loxton Waikerie (DC) - West 4,650 4,640-10 -0.2 Mid Murray (DC) 8,326 8,599 273 3.3 Renmark Paringa (DC) - Paringa 1,860 1,935 75 4.0 Renmark Paringa (DC) - Renmark 7,960 7,962 2 0.0 Unincorp. Riverland 138 133-5 -3.6 Total Riverland 41,737 41,972 235 0.6 Murray Mallee Statistical Subdivision Karoonda East Murray (DC) 1,205 1,172-33 -2.7 Murray Bridge (RC) 18,402 19,577 1,175 6.4 Southern Mallee (DC) 2,216 2,172-44 -2.0 The Coorong (DC) 5,916 5,805-111 -1.9 Unincorp. Murray Mallee 7 7 0 0.0 Total Murray Mallee 27,746 28,733 987 3.6 Total Murray Lands 69,483 70,705 1,222 1.8 SOUTH EAST STATISTICAL DIVISION 2006 2010p Change Percent Upper South East Statistical Subdivision Kingston (DC) 2,422 2,477 55 2.3 Naracoorte and Lucindale (DC) 8,468 8,530 62 0.7 Robe (DC) 1,405 1,502 97 6.9 Tatiara (DC) 7,132 7,194 62 0.9 Total Upper South East 19,427 19,703 276 1.4 13
Trends in Population Lower South East Statistical Subdivision Grant (DC) 7,716 8,270 554 7.2 Mount Gambier (C) 24,959 26,128 1,169 4.7 Wattle Range (DC) - East 3,334 3,420 86 2.6 Wattle Range (DC) - West 9,056 9,203 147 1.6 Total Lower South East 45,065 47,021 1,956 4.3 Total South East 64,492 66,724 2,232 3.5 EYRE STATISTICAL DIVISION 2006 2010p Change Percent Lincoln Statistical Subdivision Cleve (DC) 1,973 1,916-57 -2.9 Elliston (DC) 1,180 1,154-26 -2.2 Franklin Harbour (DC) 1,316 1,369 53 4.0 Kimba (DC) 1,163 1,133-30 -2.6 Wudinna (DC)/Le Hunte 1,364 1,365 1 0.1 Lower Eyre Peninsula (DC) 4,598 4,921 323 7.0 Port Lincoln (C) 14,251 14,726 475 3.3 Tumby Bay (DC) 2,644 2,762 118 4.5 Unincorp. Lincoln 13 13 0 0.0 Total Lincoln 28,502 29,359 857 3.0 West Coast Statistical Subdivision Ceduna (DC) 3,752 3,834 82 2.2 Streaky Bay (DC) 2,095 2,203 108 5.2 Unincorp. West Coast 479 496 17 3.5 Total West Coast 6,326 6,533 207 3.3 Total Eyre 34,828 35,892 1,064 3.1 NORTHERN STATISTICAL DIVISION 2006 2010p Change Percent Whyalla Statistical Subdivision Whyalla (C) 22,287 23,214 927 4.2 Unincorp. Whyalla 215 189-26 -12.1 Total Whyalla 22,502 23,403 901 4.0 Pirie Statistical Subdivision Northern Areas (DC) 4,825 4,843 18 0.4 Orroroo/Carrieton (DC) 972 931-41 -4.2 Peterborough (DC) 1,972 1,969-3 -0.2 Port Pirie C Dists (M) - City 14,127 14,463 336 2.4 Port Pirie C Dists (M) Bal 3,662 3,792 130 3.5 Unincorp. Pirie 267 270 3 1.1 Total Pirie 25,825 26,268 443 1.7 Flinders Ranges Statistical Subdivision Flinders Ranges (DC) 1,791 1,793 2 0.1 Mount Remarkable (DC) 2,945 2,966 21 0.7 Port Augusta (C) 14,444 14,784 340 2.4 14
Trends in Population Unincorp. Flinders Ranges 1,151 1,144-7 -0.6 Total Flinders Ranges 20,331 20,687 356 1.8 Far North Statistical Subdivision Anangu Pitjantjatjara (AC) 2,341 2,438 97 4.1 Coober Pedy (DC) 2,011 1,928-83 -4.1 Maralinga Tjarutja (AC) 112 110-2 -1.8 Roxby Downs (M) 4,243 4,478 235 5.5 Unincorp. Far North 1,644 1,689 45 2.7 Total Far North 10,351 10,643 292 2.8 Total Northern 79,009 81,001 1,992 2.5 TOTAL SOUTH AUSTRALIA 1,567,888 1,644,582 76,694 4.9 Source: ABS bulletin 3218.0 Note: p = preliminary and subject to revision 15
Trends in Population Figure 5: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Rest of South Australia 16
Trends in Population Figure 6: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Northern Metropolitan Adelaide 17
Trends in Population Figure 7: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Southern Metropolitan Adelaide 18
Trends in Population Figure 8: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Outer Metropolitan Adelaide 19
Trends in Population Figure 9: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Upper Spencer Gulf 20
Trends in Population Figure 10: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - Yorke Peninsula 21
Trends in Population Figure 11: Population Change by SLA, 2006 to 2010 - South East 22
Residential Development Trends 3. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 3.1 Scope and Coverage Detailed information of the spatial location and timing of future residential development activity is critical for projecting small area populations. Between February 2011 and April 2011 DPLG undertook a comprehensive survey of current and proposed future residential development activity across metropolitan and outer metropolitan Adelaide. The survey included all land subdivision proposals resulting in more than 10 additional allotments, extensions to existing and proposed new aged care facilities, major apartment/unit developments (including those for student accommodation), and South Australian Housing Trust redevelopment projects. Data captured during the survey came from the following sources: DPLG land subdivision proposal and deposit databases. DPLG actively monitors proposed land subdivision activity across South Australia and updates this information on a nightly basis. This database was a key data source used to identify the location, size and extent of the residential developments. The Cordell Construction database was used extensively to identify the major residential aged care and apartment development projects across the study area. Field assessments, and in some cases telephone calls, were carried out to assess the current status of the identified projects. The Land Management Corporation provided valuable information regarding their current and future land release intentions. The Real Estate section from major weekend and local newspapers. Company websites - most of the major companies involved in the residential development sector have websites providing a wide range of useful information about land development activity. The South Australian Housing Trust supplied information about their existing and future major redevelopments. Field work to check site works and to collect data from project signage. Each of the developments identified during the survey were captured spatially along with information about the number of estimated dwellings and project timing. This is known as the Residential Development Database 2011 (RDD11) and is used extensively by DPLG for land supply analysis. In addition to the information captured in the RDD11 there are three other sources of land supply that are factored into the overall land supply equation when developing CD level projections; Vacant residential allotments of less than 4,000 square metres. This is a count of the number of vacant lots that are serviced and readily available for residential development. Demolition and redevelopment, and re-subdivision of sites within existing residential areas. This is based on an analysis of the amount of minor infill development (less than 10 lots/dwellings) occurring across the established areas of metropolitan Adelaide. Major infill developments at key sites identified in the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide (former Clipsal site at Bowden, Cheltenham racecourse). 23
Residential Development Trends 3.2 Results Table 3 summarises the estimated number of proposed dwellings from major residential developments for the period 2010 to 2014 by current electorate. The electorates with the highest level of estimated dwelling growth are Light, Adelaide, Taylor, Torrens, Mawson and Port Adelaide. All of these electorates have significant residential development projects currently in progress. It should be noted that the survey was conducted by DPLG between February 2011 and April 2011 and only covered the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions, plus the Murray Bridge township. Information about the key projects and trends likely to drive population change in regional South Australia is summarised in section 4.5. Table 3: Proposed Dwellings from Major Residential Developments by Electorate, 2010-2014 Electorate 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Total Adelaide 659 463 439 299 1,860 Ashford 20 102 102 0 224 Bragg 0 0 0 0 0 Bright 5 45 50 50 150 Chaffey n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Cheltenham 129 247 294 234 904 Colton 87 20 20 11 138 Croydon 118 80 185 285 668 Davenport 74 190 110 93 467 Elder 131 46 21 0 198 Enfield 57 60 200 200 517 Finniss 179 167 209 265 820 Fisher 0 21 11 0 32 Flinders n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Florey 10 10 10 0 30 Frome n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Giles n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Goyder 0 11 0 0 0 Hammond 10 133 341 294 778 Hartley 40 7 16 0 63 Heysen 94 223 293 301 911 Kaurna 209 278 237 246 970 Kavel 189 179 155 80 603 Lee 15 62 33 0 110 Light 252 515 804 925 2,496 Little Para 266 136 67 0 469 Mackillop n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Mawson 185 204 236 479 1,104 Mitchell 96 106 65 46 313 Morialta 0 35 64 60 159 Morphett 0 25 25 23 73 Mount Gambier n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Napier 146 196 115 500 957 Newland 11 20 0 0 31 Norwood 0 33 0 0 33 Playford 20 21 17 0 58 24
Residential Development Trends Electorate 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Total Port Adelaide 171 192 347 352 1,062 Ramsay 10 52 28 0 90 Reynell 61 32 144 120 357 Schubert 121 235 288 249 893 Stuart n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Taylor 232 532 469 487 1,720 Torrens 14 156 521 506 1,197 Unley 7 121 126 82 336 Waite 0 0 0 0 0 West Torrens 0 0 0 0 0 Wright 0 45 46 33 124 Total 3,618 5,000 6,088 6,220 20,926 n.a. not available; detailed residential development activity data was not collected for the towns within these electorates. 3.3 Mapping The large format maps (A0 page size) produced for the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission have been designed to provide an overview of actual and proposed residential activity. The six maps covering the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Metropolitan areas are titled as follows: Residential Development Activity - Northern Metropolitan Adelaide Residential Development Activity - Central Metropolitan Adelaide Residential Development Activity - Southern Metropolitan Adelaide Residential Development Activity - Outer Northern Metropolitan Adelaide Residential Development Activity - Outer Central Metropolitan Adelaide Residential Development Activity - Outer Southern Metropolitan Adelaide The maps may be downloaded by following the link to the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission on the Electoral Commission of South Australia website at: www.ecsa.sa.gov.au The key information displayed on the maps is described below: Residential Development Areas - These areas represent the major residential developments that are expected to either commence or be completed during the 2010-2014 period (refer to section 3.1). 2010 Broadacre land supply - This layer on the map represents land (greater than 4,000 sq metres) that is zoned for future residential activity but is less likely to be developed in the projection period (2010-2014). Vacant Residential Allotments (less than 4000 sq metres) - This layer represents the vacant residential lots within existing subdivisions that do not currently have a dwelling constructed. It can be expected that many of these parcels, especially the ones in the newer subdivisions, will have an occupied residential dwelling by the end of the projection period. Land Subdivision Proposals - These layers represent the proposed land subdivisions as at the date when the maps were produced. DPLG actively maintain this database which captures all land division activity, regardless of size. Apart from identifying the major developments this information is extremely useful for identifying the areas undergoing smaller scale subdivision and redevelopment. 25
Residential Development Trends Dwellings built between June 2006 and June 2010 - This layer highlights dwelling completions in the period between June 2006 and June 2010 and provides a useful guide to the rate and extent of residential development over a relatively short period (four years). 26
Projections and Methodology 4. POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIA, STATISTICAL DIVISIONS AND STATISTICAL LOCAL AREAS 4.1 South Australia The preparation of these Collection District population projections was based on the current official population projections produced by the Department of Planning and Local Government in December 2010. Population data from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing formed the base population for this series of projections. The first results from the Census of Population and Housing held on 9 August this year will not be released until June 2012. To some degree, the lack of recently collected data from the national Census of Population and Housing can be addressed by other contemporary datasets. These include: Intercensal estimates of resident population by age and sex by Statistical Local Area (ABS) until June 2010. Quarterly estimates of births, deaths and migration at State level (ABS) until December 2011. Counts of structural self-contained dwellings, counts of the increase in dwellings, and land potentially available for development by processing the State s Digital Cadastral Database (DCDB) in conjunction with the State s valuation assessment records as at June 2010, and digital boundaries of zoning under the Development Act. DPLG s database of non-private dwellings (institutional dwellings such as nursing homes) in South Australia. A survey carried out in early 2011 of the major residential developments in the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Division (excluding Kangaroo Island). Aerial and satellite imagery. The availability of various SA Government datasets about dwellings and land, in addition to the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident population data, has significantly assisted the estimate of population change at a local level in the absence of recently collected Census data. In spite of the above insights about where development is likely to take place, users of the projections for Collection Districts should note that the reliability of projections for individual Collection Districts may be quite limited. One critical piece of information only available from the national Census is the household composition and age-structure of the population within individual Collection Districts. The projections for Collection Districts utilise the characteristics of the population observed at the 2006 Census with some adjustments which can be inferred from intercensal estimates of the resident population of Statistical Local Areas. The principal purpose of the Collection District projections is to enable aggregation to large geographic areas, in this case electorates, comprising many Collection Districts. 27
Projections and Methodology 4.2 Population Projections for Statistical Divisions A summary of the projection methodology and the major demographic assumptions used to produce the official set of 2006-36 population projections for South Australia and its Statistical Divisions is provided in the report titled: Population Projections for South Australia and Statistical Divisions, 2006-36 that was approved by Cabinet and released in December 2010 by the Department of Planning and Local Government. This report, which may be downloaded at: www.sa.gov.au/planning/populationprojections summarises the population growth, changes in age structure and components of growth projected under a low, medium and high series of projections. While Cabinet approved the projections as a set of population projections comprising a low, medium and high series to encompass the likely range of population futures for South Australia, it is the medium series which is considered to be the most likely outcome. This series projects a total population similar to that projected in the 30-Year Plan. The high and low series are included to enable agencies to manage risks if a population trend emerges that is higher or lower than the medium series. For the purposes of projecting the voting age population by Census Collector District in 2014, the medium series of projections at the Statistical Division and Statistical Local Area level were utilised to constrain the populations projected by the housing unit methodology in Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions and the regional population projection methodology applied in regional South Australia and Kangaroo Island. The population changes projected by the official set of Department of Planning and Local Government projections over the period 2010 to 2014 are summarised in Table 4 at the all-of-state and Statistical Division level. Table 4: Projected Total Population and Voting Age Population in 2010 and 2014 by Statistical Division in South Australia (DPLG Medium series) Statistical Division Estimated resident population Population change 2010-14 Voting age population Population change 2010-14 2010 2014 Persons % 2010 2014 Persons % Adelaide 1,205,277 1,272,873 67,596 5.6 950,739 1,007,327 56,588 6.0 Outer Adelaide 139,315 151,354 12,039 8.6 106,297 115,848 9,551 9.0 Yorke & Lower North 47,356 48,582 1,226 2.6 37,071 38,211 1,140 3.1 Murray Lands 70,724 71,785 1,061 1.5 54,323 55,919 1,596 2.9 South East 66,354 68,099 1,745 2.6 50,599 52,561 1,962 3.9 Eyre 35,691 36,309 618 1.7 27,009 27,785 776 2.9 Northern 80,973 82,897 1,924 2.4 61,088 63,125 2,037 3.3 South Australia 1,645,690 1,731,899 86,209 5.2 1,287,126 1,360,776 73,650 5.7 In terms of projected change in the estimated resident population (ERP) between 2010 and 2014, some 67,000 or 78% of the all-of-state projected population growth of over 86,000 persons is projected to occur within the Adelaide metropolitan area or Adelaide Statistical Division. This is consistent with the patterns of growth between 2006 and 2010 (refer Section 2.3 and Table 2) with the metropolitan LGAs of Salisbury, Playford and Onkaparinga experiencing the largest absolute growth in population. The only other Statistical Division where large population growth is projected between 2010 and 2014 is Outer Adelaide, with an absolute increase of over 12,000 persons. As the 28
Projections and Methodology base population in Outer Adelaide Statistical Division in 2010 was just 139,000 persons, this 12,000 increase equates to an 8.6% increase between 2010 and 2014, the most rapid in the State, but the absolute population gain is less than one-fifth of that projected in Adelaide SD. All other SDs in the State are projected to have modest projected increases in population of between 600 and 1,900 persons between 2010 and 2014. Because of the ageing of the State s population due to people living longer and to low fertility in the past, each Statistical Division is projected to experience a more rapid increase in its voting age population than in its total population between 2010 and 2014 (refer Table 4). Outer Adelaide Statistical Division once again has the most rapid projected increase (9% between 2010 and 2014) followed by Adelaide (6% increase), with all the other Statistical Divisions also projected to experience percentage increases in their voting age populations of 2.9% to 3.9% over the period 2010 to 2014. In Adelaide Statistical Division the absolute increase in the voting age population is projected to exceed 56,000 persons by 2014 whereas in Outer Adelaide it is projected to total 9,500 persons. Each of the regional Statistical Divisions is projected to experience absolute increases in their voting age populations between 2010 and 2014, but in a more modest range of 770 to 2,000 persons. 4.3 Statistical Local Area Projections In May 2011 the Department of Planning and Local Government released on the SA Government website (www.sa.gov.au/planning/populationprojections) the medium series of the 2006 based official population projection series distributed to the Local Government/Statistical Local Area level. These projections can also be aggregated to South Australian Government Regions. In South Australia, there are 128 Statistical Local Areas, 69 of which are in the Greater Adelaide region. Small area population projections are informed by the underlying demography of each area, the potential for new dwellings, future economic development potential and, in the case of the Greater Adelaide Region, by the strategic priorities of the 30-Year Plan for Greater Adelaide. The SLA age/sex projections are aggregated by five year age groups and are provided for the years 2006 (base year 2006 Census), 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. 4.4 Methodology for Projecting Voter Age Populations by Census Collection District in the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions (excluding Kangaroo Island) in 2014 The following methodology is designed to produce total and voter age (18 years and over) population projections by Census Collection District (CD) in the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions (minus Kangaroo Island) at 30 June 2014. The data discussed in section 3, along with recently published ABS estimated resident populations, form the basis of this method. Broadly, the method used assumes that the population in each CD in 2014 will be the population that resided in the CD in 2010 plus an additional population derived from the projected increase in the number of dwellings in each CD between 2010 and 2014. The increase in population is calculated by applying the average household size for each CD to the projected increase in the number of dwellings. The projected increase in the number of dwellings is derived from the information obtained through the residential development survey and other land supply data covered in section 3. 29
Projections and Methodology The population aged 18 years and over in each CD is calculated by applying the average proportion of the population aged 18 years and over between 2006 and 2009 (as a surrogate for 2010 proportions which are not available at this time) to the estimated increase in dwellings between 2010 and 2014. This assumes that the proportion of the population aged 18 years and over does not change between 2010 and 2014. The Housing Unit Method The housing unit method is commonly used to estimate the population of a region. It is used in the current project to estimate the increase in the population for each CD in Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions (excluding Kangaroo Island) between 2010 and 2014. The basic method is: Where: ERP 10-14 = (PD 10-14 * APPD 10 ) + NPD 10-14 ERP 10-14 = Projected increase in Estimated Resident Population (ERP) by CD between 2010 and 2014 PD 10-14 = Projected increase in the number of private dwellings by CD between 2010 and 2014 APPD 10 = Average persons per private dwelling by CD at 30 June 2010 NPD 10-14 = Projected increase in the number of persons in NPDs by CD between 2010 and 2014 For the purposes of this project, the number of persons in non-private dwellings (NPDs) is assumed to equal the number of NPDs; and the number of NPDs is assumed to remain constant between 2010 and 2014. Total Estimated Resident Population Total Estimated Resident Population by CD is calculated as: Where: ERP 2014 = ERP 10 + ERP 10-14 ERP 2014 = Projected Estimated Resident Population by CD in 2014 ERP 10 = Estimated Resident Population by CD in 2010 ERP 10-14 = Projected increase in Estimated Resident Population (ERP) by CD between 2010 and 2014 Voter Age (18+) Population Projections Voter age population projections are produced using the proportion of 18+ populations to the total population for each CD in 2010 applied to the total population for each CD in 2014: Where: ERP 18+ 2014 = ERP 2014 * (ERP 18+ 2010 / ERP 2010 ) ERP 18+ 2014 = Projected Estimated Resident Population 18+ at 30 June 2014 ERP 2014 = Projected total Estimated Resident Population at 30 June 2014 ERP 18+ 2010 = Estimated Resident Population 18+ at 30 June 2010 ERP 2010 = Total Estimated Resident Population at 30 June 2010 30
Projections and Methodology Constraints The total Estimated Resident Populations for CDs are constrained to DPLG SLA total population projections for 30 June 2014 and the 18+ Estimated Resident Populations for CDs are constrained to DPLG SD 18+ population projections for 30 June 2014. This ensures consistency with DPLG population projections and takes account of changes in the population age structure reflected in Statistical Division projections. 4.5 Methodology for Projecting Voting Age Population in 2014 by Census Collection District in Regional South Australia The remainder of South Australia comprises the following Statistical Divisions plus the District Council of Kangaroo Island: Yorke and Lower North Murray Lands South East Eyre Northern The 2010 and 2014 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) projections for Census Collection Districts (CD) in these areas of the State were predominantly based on observed population change between the censuses of 2001 and 2006, and 2010 preliminary intercensal CD data made available by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. DPLG projections at the SLA level were used as the controlling total for all CDs within an SLA in both 2010 and 2014. Current land division proposals and deposits as well as dwelling change data for the 2006-2010 period were used to validate the 2010 and 2014 population projections by CD. Information gathered from all Regional Development Australia Boards in South Australia, and some councils regarding likely economic drivers of population growth were also used to refine the projections. This methodology was selected because demographic and economic influences are the main drivers of regional population change and new dwelling construction is much more dispersed than in the Adelaide and Outer Adelaide Statistical Divisions. Methodology The methodology used to project the 2010 and 2014 ERP by Collection District for the five country Statistical Divisions plus Kangaroo Island was as follows: The 2010 CD level projections were initially generated by constraining the 2010 preliminary CD ERP data provided by the ABS to the DPLG projected 2010 SLA ERP. The 2014 ERP by CD was generated by assuming that the proportional change observed between the 2006 ERP and the constrained 2010 ERP continued until 2014. DPLG SLA level population projections for 2010 and 2014 were used as the control total for all CDs within each SLA. Each CD projection total for 2010 and 2014 was then scrutinised and adjusted where necessary to reflect current knowledge of demographic trends, building activity and economic outlook. Population estimates for each CD were then proportionally adjusted to the projected total for the relevant Statistical Local Area. SLA projections can be summed to Statistical Divisions. 31