Vol. 23 No. 4 Trading Continues at Modest Pace in Pre-Owned Aircraft Market Carl Janssens, ASA Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest Trading in the pre-owned aircraft market continued at a modest pace as the third quarter came to a close and aligned itself on fourth-quarter activity for 2010. Inventories available for sale grew slightly. Also noteworthy was the decrease of aircraft being sold with minimal time-in-market exposure. Days on market were significantly higher, which allowed a better opportunity to fetch maximum value in current market conditions. Time and condition also contributed to being a variable in the equation. Well-equipped, ready-to-fly aircraft had the largest audience of interest. Price competition remained limited. Sale prices continued in a downward trend or remained stagnant according the particular model group. Several noted outside indicators have a relationship to the health of the pre-owned aircraft market. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) reported that shipments of turboprops and business jets manufactured worldwide were down when compared to the same time frame in 9. Large fleet sales, such as those announced by Embraer recently, will have a future impact on pre-owned inventories when new deliveries replace current aircraft. On other economic fronts, the $600 billion Federal Reserve QE2 (second round of quantitative easing) has yet to be observed as an action that will create growth in the business aviation sector. On related business fronts, brokers dealing with the sale of corporations and businesses are reporting more activity with transactions closing after a long drought. Opportunities to do business are again starting to flourish. Jet Increased.................... 14 Decreased................... 502 Stable...................... 370 Bombardier Global Express experienced a $1 million upward trend for select model years. Bombardier Challengers were trending downward for the most part. Late-model Gulfstream G-550s were reported with a $1 million positive trend when compared to the fall Aircraft Bluebook. The Citation X was off a half million while the Sovereign was also down about $,000. Depending on the model, most Dassault Falcons were also off when compared to the last quarter. The Hawker 800 was down $,000. Light jets, such as the Cessna 525 were generally trending downward. Legacy Citation aircraft, such as the Citation II, were also off by about $100,000. Turboprop Increased..................... 40 Decreased.................... 111 Stable...................... 444 The DeHavilland Twin Otter DHC-6 again trended upward when compared to the previous quarter. The Piper Meridian PA 46TP was raised $100,000 for the winter Bluebook. 2010 WINTER 1
Select model years of the Piaggio P180 were also up in value. Legacy aircraft, such as the Cessna Conquest and Fairchild Metro, were down for this reporting period. Select late-model Beechcraft King Airs were also down. The majority of turboprop aircraft reported in Bluebook remained stable. Multi Increased..................... 14 Decreased................... 106 Stable...................... 534 Positive gains were limited for the multi engine category. Select 340s and 414s were up about $5000. The Twin Commander Fuji 700 increased by $10,000. Most Beech Barons were off about $5000. Select Piper Twins were also down an average of $5000. Values for the majority of the multi engine category remained unchanged. Single Increased.................... 323 Decreased................... 261 Stable..................... 1913 Bellanca experienced some positive gains. Average retail prices for select models were up slightly from the previous quarter. See the Bluebook for details. Select legacy Cessna and Piper singles also had minor increases when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of the single engine market segment remained unchanged. Helicopter Increased..................... 20 Decreased................... 197 Stable...................... 831 The Bell 205 trended upward for the winter edition of Aircraft Bluebook. The Enstrom 480 also improved in retail value when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of the helicopter segment remained unchanged. Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest here for you Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913. A product of the AC-U-KWIK line of aviation resources. 2010 Penton Business Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the U.S.A. PUBLISHED FOUR TIMES YEARLY TO COINCIDE WITH SEASONAL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS. SPRING (end Feb.) SUMMER (end May) FALL (end Aug.) WINTER (end Nov.) Bob MacArthur Senior Vice President Tom Duncan Vice President Frank Craven Group Publisher Paul Wyatt Editor-in-Chief Carl Janssens, ASA Editor Chris Reynolds Analyst and Associate Editor Jennifer Shafer-Doyle Sales Representative Susan Kohlmeyer Sales Agent Terri Cannon Customer Service Manager Dylan Goodwin Director of Production Julie Jantzer-Ward Production Manager Justin Marciniak Senior Production Editor Adriane Roberts Production Editor Brandy Ferguson Production Design Editor P.O. BOX 12901, OVERLAND PARK, KS 66282-2901 PHONE 800-654-6776 913-967-1719 FAX 800-633-6219 913-967-1901 2 MARKETLINE
2010 WINTER 3
Percent 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 USED AIRCRAFT MARKET VALUE 99.69 111.84 109.53 90 85 80 75 70 65 110 105 100 95 115 68.68 Used Aircraft Market. This chart displays each model s quarterly value in relationship to its average equipped price at the inception of the aircraft. The study begins in the Spring quarter of 1994 and includes the Jet, Turboprop, Multi, Piston and Helicopter. For all charts, the red number indicates the first reporting date after 9-11. 10151.7 JET 10250 10250 9250 8455.0 8962.5 9250 8250 8250 7250 7250 6250 6250 5250 4250 3250 5250 4250 1990 Model % Change Hawker 800 ( ) 7.1% Cessna Citation II ( ) 7.1% Dassault Falcon 50 IAI Astra 1125SP ( ) 14.8% 0.0% 3250 Lear 31 ( ) 6.9% Gulfstream G-IV ( ) 11.8% 3325.0 Jet. The jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six 1990 jets listed in the box. 4 MARKETLINE
TURBOPROP Thousands 1550 1500 1450 1 1350 1 1250 1 1150 1100 1050 950 1498.3 1466.7 1333.3 Model % Change 1990 Beech B King Air 0.0% 1990 Beech C90A 0.0% 1986 Cessna 441 Conquest ( ) 3.4% 1985 Mitsubishi MU-2 Marquis 0.0% 1990 Piper Cheyenne III 0.0% 1990 Cessna 208 Caravan 0.0% 1550 1500 1450 1 1350 1 1250 1 1150 1100 1050 950 1008.3 Turboprop. The turboprop chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of a 1985, 1986 and four 1990 turboprops listed in the box. MULTI Thousands 425 375 350 325 275 250 225 342.3 397.3 386.5 Model % Change 1986 Beech 58P Pressurized Baron 0.0% 1990 Beech 58 Baron ( ) 1.7% 1985 Cessna 421 Eagle III 0.0% 1981 Cessna 310 0.0% 1982 Piper PA-31-310C Navajo 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-34-220T Seneca III 0.0% 325 275 250 225 425 375 350 266.7 Multi. The multi chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six multi models listed in the box. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. 2010 WINTER 5
Thousands 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 134.8 PISTON 164.2 161.4 Model % Change 1990 Beech A36 Bonanza ( ) 2.6% 1990 Beech F33 Bonanza 0.0% 1986 Cessna 210 Centurian II 0.0% 1986 Cessna 172P Skyhawk B 0.0% 1985 Cessna 152 Commuter II 0.0% 1990 Mooney 252TSE 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28-236 Dakota 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28R-201 Arrow (+) 2.0% 1990 Piper PA-28-181 Archer II (+) 2.9% 1990 Piper PA-28-161 Warrior II 0.0% 140 130 120 110 100 190 180 170 160 150 115.4 Piston. The piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the 10 pistons listed in the box. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. HELICOPTER Thousands 450 425 375 350 325 275 250 312.6 349.1 345.8 Model % Change 1990 Eurocopter AS350B Ecureuil ( ) 15.4% 1990 Bell 206B III 0.0% 1990 Enstrom 280FX 0.0% 1982 Hiller FH1100 0.0% 1990 McDonnell Douglas MD 500E 0.0% 1990 Robinson R22 0.0% 425 375 350 325 275 250 450 329.3 Helicopter. The helicopter chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six helicopters listed in the box. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. 6 MARKETLINE
NASDAQ 5000 4500 0 3500 0 2500 0 1500 500 0 603.7 743.4 1101.4 4572.8 1498.80 5000 4500 0 3500 0 2500 0 1500 500 0 1234123 92 93 2368.6 NASDAQ: This ratio scale chart depicts the change for the NASDAQ daily average from quarter to quarter beginning at the end of the first quarter of 1992. Each data point represents the closing daily average on the last trading day of each quarter. This study originates in the first quarter of 1971. 05 06 07 08 09 10 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product: This graph represents real gross domestic product measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each data point represents the BEA s final figure or latest estimate of the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in real GDP based on chained 5 dollars. The study begins with the second quarter in 5. 2010 WINTER 7
AIRCRAFT ON REGISTRY March '89 September '10 4,558 6,080 26,968 8,288 10,983 10,059 21,101 13,681 187,662 199,163 50,000 100,000 150,000,000 250,000 Jet Turboprop Multi Single Helicopter Aircraft on Registry. The Aircraft on Registry chart depicts the number of aircraft reported in Aircraft Bluebook which are listed on FAA records and considered to be in the U.S. inventory. Thousands 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CHANGE OF STATUS SINGLE MULTI Single: 4,208 Multi: 355 2341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Single/Multi. The blue line in the Single Multi chart depicts change-of-ownership data for singles. The black line represents multis. 8 MARKETLINE
CHANGE OF STATUS JET TURBOPROP HELI 1 1100 900 800 700 600 500 Jet: 604 Turboprop: 269 Heli: 329 2341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Jet/Turboprop/Heli. The black line in the Jet Turboprop Heli chart represents change-of-ownership information for jets. The blue line depicts turboprops, while the gray line represents helicopters. 12 CHANGE OF STATUS TOTAL MARKET 10 10,152 7,124 7,736 8,455 8 6 6,795 6,882 5,765 4 2341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Total Market. Depicts change-of-ownership data for all aircraft included in the Aircraft Bluebook. The numbers are from the FAA Registry. Gliders, homebuilts, airliners and other aircraft not found in the Bluebook are not included in this study. 2010 WINTER 9