Australia s Building Industry current conditions and future prospects Dr Harley Dale HIA Chief Economist Alpine Nurseries Business Seminar Tuesday 26th August 2014, Sydney
What is driving housing activity? Resilient confidence Strong population growth Dwelling price growth Record low interest rates Strong foreign investment
Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Number New housing is ripping along Total Dwelling Starts Australia Source: ABS 8752 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Seasonally Adjusted Trend In the 12mths to March 2014, Australia started 176,891 new dwellings, an increase of 12.5%.
Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Number A big part of this is New South Wales Total Dwelling Starts New South Wales Source: ABS 8752 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Seasonally Adjusted Trend In the 12mths to March 2014, NSW started over 46k new dwellings, an increase of 20%.
Mar-1991 Mar-1992 Mar-1993 Mar-1994 Mar-1995 Mar-1996 Mar-1997 Mar-1998 Mar-1999 Mar-2000 Mar-2001 Mar-2002 Mar-2003 Mar-2004 Mar-2005 Mar-2006 Mar-2007 Mar-2008 Mar-2009 Mar-2010 Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 $ million (moving annual total) Renovations has been largely missing Renovations Investment in Australia - Moving Annual Total Source: ABS 5206 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 In the 12mths to March 2014, renovations investment eased by 1%, but inched higher in the Dec 13 and March 14 quarters.
Key background drivers to keep an eye on
Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Healthy population growth is important Australia's Population Growth by Component - Moving Annual Total Source: ABS 3101.0 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Total MAT Natural Increase MAT Net Overseas Migration MAT
So is low and stable interest rates Duration in Months of Previous Interest Rate Holds, 1994 to 2014 Source: RBA Dec '94 to Jun '96 19 Jul '97 to Nov '98 17 Jun '02 to Oct '03 17 Dec '03 to Feb '05 15 Mar '05 to Apr '06 14 Aug '13 to date 13 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Number of Months Rates have fallen 225 basis points since late 2011. First rate rise in mid 2015?
Index Do we need to keep an eye on confidence? Consumer Confidence Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Aug-96 Aug-98 Aug-00 Aug-02 Aug-04 Aug-06 Aug-08 Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 HIA research suggests the answer for housing is a guarded yes.
The labour market is a key, but Unemployment Rate by State - July 2014 Source: ABS Labour Force 8.0 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.6 National Unemployment Rate 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Note where the NSW u/e rate is.
Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 so is the housing price stretch. Dwelling Price to Income Ratio - 1995 to 2014 Source: ABS, RP Data, HIA 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Price to Income Ratio Trend with structural break
Where are we at?
HIA Housing Scorecard State Scores WA 82 NSW 77 ACT 69 NT 68 VIC 68 SA 54 QLD 50 TAS 36 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 104 Score - A state score of 14 is the lowest possible and would arise if a state posted the lowest indicator score of 1 for all 14 indicators, 112 is the maximum possible and would arise if a state recorded the strongest possible score of 8 across all 14 indicators.
Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Annual % change Dwelling price growth is helpful Annual growth in house prices - regional Australia vs capital cities Source: RP Data and Rismark Simple median price 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Regional Houses Capital City Houses Australians discussion about dwelling prices can be very misleading.
Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Number of loans OO Finance is healthy Loans for Established Dwellings Australia Source: ABS Housing Finance 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
% of housing starts KDR is an area to watch Knock Down Rebuild Activity Source: HIA Housing 100 30% 25% 25% 20% 15% 18% 19% 18% 16% 14% 11% 11% 17% 12% 14% 10% 5% 0% 2002-03 2003-04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
HIA Hotspots NSW NSW Building and Population Hotspots** **SAs with in excess of $100 million in residential building work approved in 2012/13 and with an annual population growth rate in excess of the national rate of 1.8% Statistical Area Level 2 Statistical Area Level 4 Residential Building Approved, 2012/13, ($'000) Annual Population Growth Rate (%) 1 Parklea - Kellyville Ridge Sydney - Blacktown 178,677 13.3 2 Cobbitty - Leppington Sydney - South West 174,607 10.8 3 Homebush Bay - Silverwater Sydney - Parramatta 257,905 9.2 4 Concord West - North Strathfield Sydney - Inner West 252,184 6.4 5 Parramatta - Rosehill Sydney - Parramatta 236,926 6.4 6 Waterloo - Beaconsfield Sydney - City and Inner South 513,177 4.6 7 Arncliffe - Bardwell Valley Sydeny - Inner South West 136,421 4.1 8 Erskineville - Alexandria Sydney - City and Inner South 134,342 3.4 9 Kellyville Sydney - Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury 147,986 3.3 10 Sydney - Haymarket - The Rocks Sydney - City and Inner South 108,000 2.5 11 Ryde - Putney Sydney - Ryde 129,971 2.3
HIA Hotspots Queensland QLD Building and Population Hotspots** **SAs with in excess of $100 million in residential building work approved in 2012/13 and with an annual population growth rate in excess of the national rate of 1.8% Statistical Area Level 2 Statistical Area Level 4 Residential Building Approved, 2012/13, ($'000) Annual Population Growth Rate (%) 1 Deeragun Townsville 149,431 8.9 2 North Lakes - Mango Hill Moreton Bay - South 155,139 8.8 3 Clinton - New Auckland Fitzroy 140,884 7.0 5 Eimeo - Rural View Mackay 147,965 6.8 4 Gracemere Fitzroy 100,189 5.5 7 South Brisbane Brisbane Inner City 212,156 5.3 6 Fortitude Valley Brisbane Inner City 142,000 2.8 8 Moranbah Mackay 104,871 2.8
HIA Hotspots the ACT ACT Building and Population Hotspots** **SAs with in excess of $20 million in residential building work approved in 2012/13 and with an annual population growth rate in excess of the national rate of 1.8% Statistical Area Level 2 Statistical Area Level 3 Residential Building Approved, 2012/13 ($'000) Annual Population Growth Rate (%) 1 Crace Gungahlin 111,958 58.1 2 Bonner Gungahlin 121,001 43.3 3 Casey Gungahlin 131,587 40.6 4 ACT - South West Cotter - Namadgi 96,337 31.2 5 Forde Gungahlin 38,410 20.4 6 Harrison Gungahlin 79,717 13.5 7 Belconnen Belconnen 63,200 11.7 8 Braddon North Canberra 91,597 8.2 9 Franklin Gungahlin 25,665 6.6 10 Kingston - Barton South Canberra 34,859 6.5
Value of alterations and additions from HIA Hotspots Area Alterations & Additions 2012/13 SYDNEY - NORTH SYDNEY AND HORNSBY 296,500 SYDNEY - EASTERN SUBURBS 201,552 SYDNEY - NORTHERN BEACHES 139,789 NEWCASTLE AND LAKE MACQUARIE 95,971 SYDNEY - CITY AND INNER SOUTH 91,240 MELBOURNE - INNER 462,565 MELBOURNE - INNER EAST 245,730 MELBOURNE - INNER SOUTH 222,896 MELBOURNE - WEST 154,795 MORNINGTON PENINSULA 139,294 BRISBANE INNER CITY 210,475 BRISBANE - SOUTH 106,217 SUNSHINE COAST 93,697 GOLD COAST 76,702 BRISBANE - WEST 76,435 ADELAIDE - CENTRAL AND HILLS 125,708 ADELAIDE - SOUTH 65,972 ADELAIDE - WEST 38,029 SOUTH AUSTRALIA - SOUTH EAST 37,987 ADELAIDE - NORTH 29,620 PERTH - NORTH WEST 120,996 PERTH - INNER 98,552 PERTH - SOUTH WEST 96,245 PERTH - SOUTH EAST 83,920 WESTERN AUSTRALIA - OUTBACK 69,722
% change Is renovations activity turning around? Renovation Investment 12 months to Mar 2014 Source: ABS National Accounts 10.0% 5.0% 6.7% 6.1% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -2.3% -2.5% -7.0% 0.2% -4.9% -0.7% -15.0% -20.0% NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS ACT NT Australia -57%
Dec-2000 Jun-2001 Dec-2001 Jun-2002 Dec-2002 Jun-2003 Dec-2003 Jun-2004 Dec-2004 Jun-2005 Dec-2005 Jun-2006 Dec-2006 Jun-2007 Dec-2007 Jun-2008 Dec-2008 Jun-2009 Dec-2009 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Jun-2013 Dec-2013 Jun-2014 Dec-2014 Jun-2015 Dec-2015 Jun-2016 Dec-2016 Jun-2017 Dec-2017 Jun-2018 Dec-2018 Jun-2019 Dec-2019 Jun-2020 Dec-2020 Jun-2021 Dec-2021 Jun-2022 Dec-2022 Thousands Sweet timing for renovations? Estimated Number of Houses in 11 to 20 year Age Range - Australia, 2000 to 2022 Source: ABS 1,090 1,080 1,070 1,060 1,050 1,040 1,030 1,020 1,010 1,000 990
Commercial construction in NSW Non-residential Building Approved: by Type, NSW $ million, chain volume measures, base 2011/12 Hotels & Retail Factories & Health & Entertainment Trade Warehouses Office Aged Care Education Other Total Mar '10 107.3 185.0 82.0 240.4 98.7 395.0 211.1 1319.5 Jun 127.1 271.7 220.8 495.2 242.0 285.0 203.5 1845.2 Sep 199.7 574.7 173.5 323.3 158.2 245.4 136.1 1810.8 Dec 227.0 356.9 236.0 407.0 211.2 211.6 173.6 1823.3 Mar '11 128.7 320.1 316.8 626.2 124.6 219.2 320.3 2055.9 Jun 287.0 204.5 430.1 215.2 263.9 209.3 159.4 1769.5 Sep 208.6 332.3 138.0 259.3 204.0 341.7 270.5 1754.5 Dec 106.7 257.6 162.0 287.5 182.2 406.1 252.5 1654.6 Mar '12 245.3 431.5 167.5 198.4 171.3 286.3 196.2 1696.3 Jun 324.4 527.8 243.6 342.6 190.6 595.3 332.1 2556.4 Sep 192.7 255.1 140.4 351.2 183.4 378.0 211.4 1712.2 Dec 145.8 254.1 181.4 276.7 317.7 194.5 314.5 1684.7 Mar '13 194.5 571.0 232.4 671.0 360.6 113.7 502.8 2645.9 Jun 234.7 646.8 183.8 246.1 458.8 207.1 223.0 2200.3 Sep 221.4 392.2 181.0 942.0 375.1 486.0 464.4 3062.0 Dec 397.5 363.1 226.3 1133.7 465.5 385.5 397.4 3368.9 Mar '14 206.7 280.7 253.6 263.4 546.0 310.3 284.2 2144.8 Year ended: Mar '12 857.4 1608.0 797.7 1641.5 1052.3 1281.4 1360.8 8599.1 Mar '13 1060.3 1682.7 844.7 2585.1 1845.3 1388.9 1369.0 10776.0 % change 23.7% 4.6% 5.9% 57.5% 75.4% 8.4% 0.6% 25.3%
Commercial construction in Queensland Non-residential Building Approved: by Type, QLD $ million, chain volume measures, base 2011/12 Hotels & Retail Factories & Health & Entertainment Trade Warehouses Office Aged Care Education Other Total Mar '10 254.1 176.1 204.4 221.6 59.8 542.7 193.9 1652.6 Jun 105.4 328.3 183.9 148.7 90.8 573.8 167.2 1598.1 Sep 309.8 495.9 159.2 178.2 186.1 539.4 151.0 2019.6 Dec 100.9 302.4 115.6 175.8 118.5 270.3 113.0 1196.4 Mar '11 396.1 237.1 116.4 322.6 1434.7 189.9 90.9 2787.6 Jun 136.4 277.0 122.8 280.3 104.9 433.1 101.7 1456.3 Sep 175.4 198.4 201.1 287.6 333.1 368.7 271.9 1836.2 Dec 204.7 198.0 137.9 167.5 187.3 151.8 511.6 1558.8 Mar '12 69.3 459.3 117.6 288.7 36.2 154.5 265.6 1391.1 Jun 78.0 195.7 180.3 238.9 133.5 254.4 244.2 1325.1 Sep 89.3 284.7 222.0 291.7 390.4 167.8 331.9 1777.8 Dec 149.1 264.3 202.5 243.4 214.2 77.8 359.7 1511.0 Mar '13 127.0 238.8 260.0 1056.4 264.3 182.0 297.7 2426.2 Jun 234.2 691.7 169.4 142.2 1093.9 207.6 214.5 2753.5 Sep 92.3 319.0 246.1 420.3 111.0 221.1 184.7 1594.6 Dec 60.3 228.4 177.5 174.1 268.9 296.0 97.8 1302.9 Mar '14 81.9 828.8 292.4 180.7 118.0 338.2 187.9 2027.9 Year ended: Mar '12 443.4 983.4 864.8 1830.4 1002.4 682.0 1233.5 7040.1 Mar '13 468.7 2067.9 885.3 917.3 1591.8 1063.0 685.0 7679.0 % change 5.7% 110.3% 2.4% -49.9% 58.8% 55.9% -44.5% 9.1%
Commercial construction in the ACT Non-residential Building Approved: by Type, ACT $ million, chain volume measures, base 2011/12 Hotels & Retail Factories & Health & Entertainment Trade Warehouses Office Aged Care Education Other Total Mar '10 23.9 61.0 10.4 117.6 4.9 89.8 43.6 351.2 Jun 2.0 10.4 16.5 40.8 2.7 40.0 9.9 122.3 Sep 29.0 7.6 19.5 149.2 80.9 23.2 38.1 347.5 Dec 2.2 30.1 23.7 107.5 25.3 46.4 133.5 368.6 Mar '11 43.1 7.5 5.7 24.4 1.2 37.5 16.9 136.3 Jun 21.2 24.3 9.2 106.1 1.1 22.5 3.6 188.0 Sep 1.0 29.9 3.6 37.7 20.1 70.3 10.2 172.7 Dec 0.5 26.9 1.9 54.0 42.3 8.3 1.4 135.2 Mar '12 4.6 7.3 7.9 44.0 42.1 128.8 1.6 236.3 Jun 6.2 31.0 6.7 28.4 39.9 25.1 31.8 169.0 Sep 20.6 26.7 26.6 49.7 7.0 37.2 2.8 170.6 Dec 27.8 25.0 7.7 96.5 8.7 56.5 42.4 264.6 Mar '13 25.1 4.8 11.7 11.8 36.6 37.2 5.4 132.7 Jun 5.3 15.1 2.7 39.4 0.5 45.1 14.8 122.8 Sep 16.4 38.8 12.0 57.0 31.5 20.2 5.7 181.7 Dec 47.8 17.3 20.4 57.3 4.2 26.9 96.2 270.2 Mar '14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Year ended: Mar '12 79.6 87.5 52.7 186.4 92.1 156.1 82.5 736.9 Mar '13 69.5 71.1 35.2 153.7 36.2 92.2 116.8 574.7 % change -12.7% -18.7% -33.3% -17.5% -60.7% -40.9% 41.6% -22.0%
Where are we going?
Value of Investment (millions) HIA s renovations outlook Australia Renovations Forecasts Source: HIA Economics Group 31,500 31,000 31,010 31,200 31,274 31,010 Forecast 30,500 30,000 29,500 29,000 30,088 29,626 30,257 30,227 28,711 29,021 29,626 28,500 28,303 28,000 27,500 27,000 26,500 2004/05 (a) 2005/06 (a) 2006/07 (a) 2007/08 (a) 2008/09 (a) 2009/10 (a) 2010/11 (a) 2011/12 (a) 2012/13 (a) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 NSW up 5%; QLD up 3%; ACT down 1%; Australia up 1% in 2014/15.
Thousand dwellings commenced HIA s new home building outlook Australia Housing Starts Forecasts Source: HIA Economics Group 200.00 173.78 180.00 160.15 159.88 162.98 161.91 160.00 152.67 152.73 145.24 140.00 132.92 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 182.42 Forecast 176.81 174.05 0.00 2004/05 (a) 2005/06 (a) 2006/07 (a) 2007/08 (a) 2008/09 (a) 2009/10 (a) 2010/11 (a) 2011/12 (a) 2012/13 (a) 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 NSW up 4%; QLD up 5%; ACT down 22%; Australia down 3% in 2014/15.
HIA s Demographic Research Region: Australia Population Growth Scenario Series A Series B Series C Zero Net overseas migration High NOM Medium NOM Low NOM Zero NOM Fertility Assumption High fertility Medium fertility Low fertility Low fertility Medium life Medium life Medium life Mortality Assumption High life expectancy expectancy expectancy expectancy Population in 2012 22,721,995 22,721,995 22,721,995 22,721,995 Population in 2050 41,939,543 37,593,636 34,349,728 23,832,473 Implied annual population growth rate 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% Household size 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 Additional dwellings required per annum 195,293 151,129 118,164 11,285 Required annual build rate* Low 212,924 168,760 135,795 28,916 Medium 230,555 186,391 153,425 46,546 High 248,186 204,022 171,056 64,177
NSW Commercial construction outlook Non-residential Building Approved: by Type, NSW $ million, chain volume measures, base 2011/12 Accommodation Educational Entertainment and recreation Health and aged care Industrial Miscellaneous Offices Other Commercial Retail and wholesale trade Total % change total 2003-04 16 134 36 379 632 14 1,663 1,936 173 4,983 2004-05 23 187 45 346 615 41 1,699 1,760 173 4,889-1.9% 2005-06 39 273 36 319 750 28 2,003 1,577 471 5,496 12.4% 2006-07 12 314 51 400 1,094 35 2,064 1,663 786 6,419 16.8% 2007-08 20 295 73 672 1,586 21 2,203 2,358 526 7,754 20.8% 2008-09 12 269 57 1,223 2,009 31 1,852 2,228 679 8,360 7.8% 2009-10 8 180 50 1,013 1,387 153 1,525 1,165 626 6,107-26.9% 2010-11 3 235 63 850 1,159 89 1,617 1,134 490 5,640-7.6% 2011-12 6 369 43 1,039 981 38 1,389 1,590 557 6,012 6.6% 2012-13 5 242 46 687 1,131 78 1,517 1,904 339 5,949-1.0% 2013-14 (f) 110 236 43 895 943 40 1,629 1,937 391 6,224 4.6% 2014-15 (f) 92 255 47 950 1,148 46 1,874 1,902 521 6,835 9.8% 2015-16 (f) 80 261 49 945 1,169 53 1,903 1,949 527 6,936 1.5% 2016-17 (f) 70 260 48 937 1,168 54 1,898 1,959 529 6,923-0.2% 2017-18 (f) 73 259 47 940 1,165 58 1,899 1,948 534 6,923 0.0% Source: ACIF Construction Industry Forecast
QLD Commercial construction outlook Non-residential Building Approved: by Type, QLD $ million, chain volume measures, base 2011/12 Accommodation Educational Entertainment and recreation Health and aged care Industrial Miscellaneous Offices Other Commercial Retail and wholesale trade Total % change total 2003-04 761 51 111 15 386 933 760 292 968 4,277 2004-05 766 37 114 23 410 844 815 346 1,343 4,698 9.8% 2005-06 927 58 109 41 502 866 1,120 361 1,453 5,437 15.7% 2006-07 855 76 83 51 724 880 1,282 398 1,582 5,931 9.1% 2007-08 816 96 164 80 1,118 877 1,342 302 1,444 6,239 5.2% 2008-09 881 134 177 75 1,408 924 1,224 334 1,122 6,279 0.6% 2009-10 3,643 76 345 201 1,133 2,760 747 311 961 10,177 62.1% 2010-11 2,890 117 416 166 1,300 2,855 764 335 1,177 10,020-1.5% 2011-12 1,216 97 246 97 1,828 1,684 1,014 213 1,190 7,585-24.3% 2012-13 1,203 90 227 54 1,805 1,165 1,150 211 1,071 6,976-8.0% 2013-14 (f) 1,295 93 141 145 1,256 1,175 1,287 322 1,206 6,920-0.8% 2014-15 (f) 1,022 67 152 107 933 1,133 1,265 424 1,757 6,860-0.9% 2015-16 (f) 1,025 67 153 87 900 1,162 1,282 429 1,797 6,902 0.6% 2016-17 (f) 1,023 68 156 81 912 1,175 1,304 438 1,836 6,993 1.3% 2017-18 (f) 1,032 68 160 85 928 1,172 1,312 442 1,839 7,038 0.6% Source: ACIF Construction Industry Forecast
ACT Commercial construction outlook Non-residential Building Approved: by Type, ACT $ million, chain volume measures, base 2011/12 Accommodation Educational Entertainment and recreation Health and aged care Industrial Miscellaneous Offices Other Commercial Retail and wholesale trade Total % change total 2003-04 42 857 354 312 1,072 54 23 1,765 34 4,513 2004-05 71 1,109 372 342 1,151 53 48 1,646 35 4,827 7.0% 2005-06 84 1,554 486 327 1,151 64 176 1,745 39 5,626 16.6% 2006-07 71 1,488 572 235 1,497 51 127 1,447 42 5,530-1.7% 2007-08 77 1,245 681 230 2,124 47 125 1,622 28 6,179 11.7% 2008-09 62 1,164 557 319 1,859 122 79 1,806 25 5,993-3.0% 2009-10 44 799 442 212 1,256 70 52 1,788 34 4,697-21.6% 2010-11 64 1,065 511 216 1,361 41 148 1,867 41 5,314 13.1% 2011-12 91 1,251 455 317 1,721 45 154 1,562 28 5,624 5.8% 2012-13 77 1,073 507 261 1,686 46 66 1,479 26 5,221-7.2% 2013-14 (f) 87 1,324 813 289 1,449 144 104 1,793 105 6,108 17.0% 2014-15 (f) 69 1,351 796 326 1,554 118 109 1,865 91 6,279 2.8% 2015-16 (f) 70 1,363 783 330 1,596 100 110 1,887 72 6,311 0.5% 2016-17 (f) 69 1,360 774 330 1,600 93 113 1,878 65 6,282-0.5% 2017-18 (f) 67 1,355 775 329 1,580 95 115 1,875 67 6,258-0.4% Source: ACIF Construction Industry Forecast
Updates from HIA Economics Australian Construction Insights was launched at HIA s 2014 Building Better Cities Summit in Sydney on July 24. Stamp Duty Watch being released on Wednesday. More detailed new housing forecasts Out before the end of 2014 Demographic analysis by state Available within the next month New Renovations report Out in October
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME Harley Dale HIA Chief Economist August 2014 http://economics.hia.com.au http://aciresearch.com.au