The challenges of the Mediterranean: economic scenario and forecasts Alessandro PANARO Head of Maritime & Med Dept. SRM Munich, May 11th, 2017 1
www.srm-maritimeconomy.com 2
The growing role of Mediterranean The Mediterranean Economic Scenario and competitiveness indicators The main phenomena that will shape the future of the maritime sector Conclusions 3
2 billion tons of cargo transit through the Mediterranean every year Break bulk 22% RoRo 10% Container 33% Liquid bulk 20% Dry bulk 15% Fonte: SRM su OECD, 2016 4
The most important data on the shipping sector in the Med Source: SRM on Port Authorities 5
A new world record Fonte: UNCTAD 2016 6
International seaborne trade in the World ports +202% Maritime traffic has grown steadily over the last 7 years. Fonte: UNCTAD 2016 If we consider the period 1985-2015, this traffic showed a dramatic growth of approximately 202%; in 2015 it reached a peak of 10 billion tonnes. 7
The most important data on the shipping sector in Italy Italian ports have developed a multipurpose system especially concentrated on liquid bulk and container. After the fall in 2009, the trend of goods had a gradual increase from 2013 reaching 483.8 million tons in 2016. Port traffic of goods by type of cargo, 2016 Trend of goods in million tons 2008-2016 Ro-Ro 93,9 19.4% Break bulk 22.9 4.7% Liquid bulk 182.3 37.7% 509,1 476,1 481,2 463,2 459,4 460,9 480,8 483,8 437,9 Container 114.7 23.7% Dry bulk 70.0 14.5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SRM on Port Authorities 8
Import-export between Italy and the world Trade relations between Italy and the world are almost 600bn. In 2016, 37% of this traffic is seaborne ( 216.9bn). Maritime traffic between Italy and the world increased 64% between 2000 and 2016 (CAGR +3.1%). Imports Exports Air Transport 68.2 bn 11% Maritime Transport 216.9 bn 37% 216,9 132,2 84,2 100,9 91,0 98,4 109,0 108,0 107,4 111,6 110,4 bn 75,8 80,4 61,4 Road Transport 288.3 bn 49% Rail Transport 15.7 bn 3% 131,5 140,3 124,6 131,2 111,2 119,0 114,4 111,7 106,5 94,0 90,5 70,8 2000 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SRM on ISTAT 9
Import-export between Italy and the Mediterranean Area Trade relations between Italy and MENA countries are 67bn. In 2016, most of this traffic is seaborne (80%). Maritime traffic between Italy and Mena Area fluctuated during the period 2000-2016 but it had a positive annual growth rate (CAGR +2.4%). Import-export of goods by mode of transport, 2016 Road Transport 6.6 bn; 9,9% Rail Transport; 0.1 bn 0,2% Air Transport 6.5 bn ; 9,7% Maritime Transport 53.5 bn; 80,2% bn 80,0 75,0 70,0 65,0 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 Trend of Maritime traffic (import-export) between Italy and Mena Area, 2000-2016 CAGR: +2.4% 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SRM on ISTAT 10
The most important data on passengers Italy ranked 1 st in EU 2016 accounting for just less than one fifth of the EU-28 total. Italian main ports handled 48 million passengers. The cruise market confirms its solidity and appeal worldwide. Italy remains the first European destination for the cruise industry. Between 2006 and 2016 the number of cruisers has quite doubled reaching 10.8 million of passengers. Million n 60 50 40 30 20 Total passengers 47,7 47,8 49,8 48,2 47,2 46,1 41,2 44,2 43,3 44,7 47,7 Million n 12 10 8 6 4 6,2 7,8 8,9 9,1 9,3 cruisers 11,2 10,5 11,0 10,0 10,8 10,8 10 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SRM on Port Authorities 11
The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI), realised by UNCTAD, shows the level of competitiveness in ports and shipping system of 157 countries. Italy ranks 16 th, China is the best in the world. China 2004=100 100,0 90,0 94,0 80,0 70,0 76,2 12 b.p. gap 71,2 60,0 50,0 52,5 26 b.p. gap 58,9 Average NR Average NM Average NA & Turkey 40,0 30,0 20,0 26,0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: UNCTAD 12
Ranking of top 10 container ports in the Mediterranean Basin: Market Shares Gioia Tauro 9% Tanger Med 9% Marsaxlokk 9% Algeciras ranked 1 st Genoa 7% 14% 7% 4% Ambarli 9% Barcelona 7% 10% 11% 2008 9% 14% 2% Algeciras 15% 14% Piraeus 11% 15% 2016 Valencia 15% Port Said 11% Spanish ports confirm their leadership (37% market share) in the top 10 Piraeus and Tanger Med showed a dramatic growth. Source: SRM on Port Authorities 13
Traffic in the Suez Canal: ships and cargo Transit goods account for 8-10% of the entire globe. In 2016, 819 million tonnes of goods passed through the Canal. More than 17,000 ships passed through the Canal. Between 2001 and 2016 the Canal s traffic trends recorded a 120% increase in transit goods. (+2,7% in February 2017 on previous year) 25 900 Ships Number of which containerships Cargo Ships number (thousands) 20 15 10 5 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Cargo ton (millions) - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 Source: SRM on Suez Port Authority, 2016 14
The new Panama Canal Source: Openstreetmap data 15
The Panama Canal Expansion: three main effects The inauguration: June 26 th, 2016 The new Canal allows the passage of larger vessels. A new type of vessel will also be able to pass. A new market segment will be created: it consists of LNG and LPG. The number of transits in the medium to long term will increase. The passage will potentially allow the simultaneous transit of 3 ships: a potential total maximum of 50 transits per day. +large vessels New traffic More transits ECONOMIES OF SCALE 16
Size and vessel capacity of the new locks The new locks allow the passage of container ships up to 13,000/14,000 TEUs (the first Canal limit was of 4,500-5,000 TEU). Source: SRM s elabrations on Panama Canal Authority data 17
Naval gigantism: the world fleet will change in the future Containership fleet capacity 13% 23% 34% 87% 77% 66% 2012 2015 2020 More than 10,000 TEUs Up to 10,000 TEUs 173 new ships will sail by 2019 in the 10-21.000 TEU size (58 of these belong to the 18-21.000 TEU size) Source: Alphaliner, Panama Canal Authority 18
The impact of megaships on shipping intermodality Source: Nooteboom Group 19
The new drivers of maritime economy: the big alliances 20
Mega alliances and their market share: an analysis of two strategic routes The Alliance 24% ASIA - EUROPE Others 1% Ocean Alliance 35% The Alliance 27% FAR EAST - NORTH AMERICA Others 8% Ocean Alliance 41% 2M+HMM 40% 2M+HMM 24% Source: SRM on Alphaliner 2016 21
The Short Sea Shipping map 537 444 256 130 581 22
Short Sea Shipping (SSS) In the Mediterranean Area, Italy ranked 1 st with a volume near to 216 million tonnes of cargo equal to 36% market share. Greece had a relevant SSS traffic: 73,5 million tonnes and a share market of 12%. Others 162,5 27% Short Sea Shipping in the Mediterranean Italy 215,6 36% France 50,3 9% Greece 73,5 12% Spain 96,4 16% Source: SRM on Eurostat, 2017 23
The Ro-Ro market and the Automotive sector Global auto sales will develop positively forword from 88 million units in 2015 to 103.6 million in 2023 (+18% between 2015 and 2023; cagr +2,1) Global auto market growth 2015-2023 million units Forecasts Source: Wallenius Wilhelmsen 2016 24
The top world competitors in Ro-Ro Market The Ro-Ro market is concentrated in Northern Europe, North Africa and in the Black Sea. We are seeing a strong growth in Southeast Asia and in the Gulf. In 2016, Ro-Ro market saw some Economic conditions are improvement on previous years. improving The price of oil is decreasing The top competitor in Ro-Ro: current fleet (KCEU & ships) & Orderbook (KCEU) 900 800 700 600 500 55 Current fleet Orderbook N. Vessels 27 87 140 180 160 140 120 100 400 300 200 100 842 669 581 475 26 334 30 376 120 190 35 544 80 60 40 20 0 25 0 WW GROUP NYK MOL K LINE HAL GLOVIS GRIMALDI SIEM OTHER Source: Wallenius Wilhelmsen 2016 25
Ro-Ro traffic in Italy In Italy, the Ro-Ro market reached almost 94 million tonnes (+3.5% on 2015). Main Italian Ro-Ro ports are: Leghorn (12.4 million Tonnes), Genoa (8.6), Trieste (8.5), Catania (7.1) and Salerno (7.0). Ro-Ro Traffic in Italy ASP 2016 tonn. Var 2015-2016 Var 2012-2016 Asp Tirreno settentrionale ( Leghorn Piombino-Elba) 16.775.144 6,5% 55,6% Asp Tirreno centrale (Napoli/Salerno) 12.850.790 1,2% 4,6% Asp Ligure occidentale (Genoa/Savona-Vado) 11.435.448-3,1% 31,7% Asp M. Sardegna 9.520.217 2,0% 4,6% Asp Adriatico orientale (Trieste/Monfalcone) 8.735.962 1,8% 57,8% Asp Sicilia orientale (Catania) 7.018.110 5,9% 66,0% Asp Sicilia occidentale (Palermo/Termini im) 5.846.162 1,0% -10,9% Asp tirr merid/jonio/stretto (Messina-Milazzo) 5.943.203 1,6% 14,4% TOTAL 93.609.683 3,6% 22,9% Million Tons +3.5 90.4 93.6 85.5 81.3 76.4 78 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SRM, 2017 Source: SRM on Assoporti & Port Authorities, 2017 26
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Thanks for your attention email: a.panaro@sr-m.it website: www.srm-maritimeconomy.com 29