Latest Tourism Trends Humphrey Walwyn Head of VisitEngland Research 1
Inbound Tourism 2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 UK inbound long term trend Spend per visit up in 2017, reversing the recent trend 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% Visits Spending Source: International Passenger Survey 3
Where did 2017 growth come from? 2017 % change vs. 2016 ALL VISITS (million) 39.2 4% Spend ( billion) 24.5 9% Nights (million) 284.8 3% 2017 Visits (million) % change vs. 2016 Holiday 15.4 11% VFR 12.0 4% Business 8.8-4% Miscellaneous 3.1 3% 2017 Visits (million) % change vs. 2016 Europe 28.1 1% Long haul 11.1 13% Source: International Passenger Survey 4
Strong growth in the first half of the year, slowing at the end Visits made in each quarter (000s) 12,000 10,000 +10% +9% +4% -5% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2015 2016 2017 0 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Source: International Passenger Survey 5
Inbound update first half of 2018 YTD 2018 (Jan - Jun) % change vs. 2017 ALL VISITS (million) 17.9-7% Spend ( billion) 10.3-5% Nights (million) 115.5-8% Both visits and spend down from a record first half of 2017, with a small increase in spend per visit Visits % change Q1 (Jan-March) -6% Q2 (April-June) -8% Both Q1 and Q2 down on strong 2017 numbers but still the second highest ever for each quarter Source: International Passenger Survey 6
Inbound details first half of 2018 H1 2018 % change vs. 2017 Holiday -9% VFR 2% Business -8% Miscellaneous -24% Holiday visits and spend both fell from 2017 but were still the 2 nd highest ever 9% up on 2016 H1 2018 Visits 000s % change vs. 2017 Europe 13,035-8% Long haul 4,839-4% Visits from Europe slip back below 2016 levels Visits from long haul still 19% above 2016! Source: International Passenger Survey 7
UK regional overview Visits (000) 2017 Growth New record Region Q1 & Q2 2017 Visits (000) Q1 & Q2 2018 Growth UK TOTAL 19,184 17,874-7% Scotland 1,306 1,692 30% Wales 493 430-13% England 16,832 15,394-9% London 19,828 4% yes Rest of England 16,496 3% yes Total England 34,304 4% yes Scotland 3,210 17% yes Wales 1,079 0% UK TOTAL 39,214 4% yes Source: International Passenger Survey London 9,998 8,968-10% Rest Of England 7,731 7,276-6% North East 230 209-9% North West 1,485 1,468-1% Yorkshire 598 647 8% West Midlands 1,124 994-12% East Midlands 583 511-12% East Of England 1,129 980-13% South West 1,152 1,032-10% South East 2,401 2,293-5% 8
Top inbound markets Visits (000s) 1 France 3,956 2 USA 3,910 3 Germany 3,380 4 Irish Republic 3,029 5 Spain 2,413 6 Netherlands 2,136 7 Poland 1,807 8 Italy 1,779 9 Belgium 1,148 10 Australia 1,092 11 Switzerland 989 12 Romania 944 13 Canada 835 14 Sweden 831 15 Denmark 730 Source: International Passenger Survey, 2017 Spend ( m) 1 USA 3,643 2 Germany 1,581 3 France 1,425 4 Australia 1,194 5 Spain 1,061 6 Irish Republic 941 7 Saudi Arabia 862 8 Italy 841 9 Netherlands 747 10 China 694 11 UAE 618 12 Canada 604 13 Switzerland 585 14 India 454 15 Sweden 451 Spend per visit, 2017: Saudi Arabia 5,342 Kuwait 3,172 Bahrain 2,530 Qatar 2,416 China 2,059 UAE 1,650 Nigeria 1,599 Australia 1,093 Brazil 1,078 Japan 1,011 USA 932 Russia 826 India 808 Italy 473 Germany 468 Spain 440 France 360 Netherlands 350 Belgium 343 Romania 317 Irish Republic 310 Poland 218 9
Domestic Overnight Tourism 10
Domestic holiday trips have grown over the longer term, whilst VFR and business trips have slightly declined Trips (m) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.4% VFR -0.9% Business -0.2% Source: GBTS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from July 2007-July 2018 11
Strong growth in holidays in 2017 and further growth in 2018. Recent signs of recovery for VFR and business trips Trips (m) 55 50 45 40 35 30 Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.4% VFR -0.9% Past 12 Months Holiday +3.6% VFR +3.8% 25 20 15 10 Business -0.2% Business +9.0% 5 Source: GBTS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for July 2018 vs. July 2017. 12
The number of domestic holidays taken in 2017 in England equalled the record that was set in 2009 (staycation boom) Domestic holidays in England 2017 47.2m Increase in domestic holidays in England in 2017 vs. 2016 +6% Source: GBTS Equalled the record previously set in 2009 at the time of the staycation boom 13
7 out of 9 English regions increased in domestic holiday trips year on year in 2017 North West 2017 vs. 2016 increase +17% On par with record volume of 2009 North East 2017 vs. 2016 increase +24% Highest volume since 2013 Source: GBTS South East 2017 vs. 2016 decrease -13% But this followed +16% increase in 2016 vs. 2015 14
Short trips growth trend continued in 2017, but longer trips also saw growth 35 Trips (m) Domestic Holiday Trips in England 2006-2017 Av. Annual Growth 2017 vs 2016 30 +2% +7% 25 20 15 +1% +3% 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: GBTS 1-3 nights 4+ nights 15
All months of 2017 were above the long-term average for domestic holidays in England. Trips (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Average 06-17 2016 2017 Source: GBTS 16
Most months of 2018 have been above average for holiday trips to England, with May particularly strong Trips (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December 17 Source: GBTS Average 06-17 2016 2017 2018
Domestic Day Visits 18
Domestic day visits volume has declined over six years. Value has been flat, and therefore below inflation. Trips (m) Spend ( m) Av. Annual Growth 1800 1600 1400 1200 Domestic Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 60,000 50,000 Total Day Visits Volume -2.2% Value -0.1% 1000 40,000 800 30,000 600 400 200 20,000 10,000 0 - Source: GBDVS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from October 2012-October 2018 19
Activities core to tourism have declined in volume at a lower rate than total day visits. Value has increased, but under inflation. Trips (m) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Domestic Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Spend ( m) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Av. Annual Growth Core Tourism Activities Volume -1.3% Value +0.4% 800 30,000 600 400 200 20,000 10,000 0 - Source: GBDVS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from October 2012-October 2018 20
Average Annual Growth for attractions is -1.3%, but this is primarily driven by the last 12 months which declined -9.3% Visits (m) 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 50.0 30.0 Jan- 12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan- 13 Domestic Day Visits in England Volume of Visits by Main Activity, Rolling 12 Month Trend Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan- 14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan- 15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan- 16 Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for October 18 vs. October 17. Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan- 17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan- 18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Av. Annual Growth Outdoor leisure -2.1% General day out +0.8% Visiting an attraction -1.3% Core Tourism Activities -1.3% Past 12 Months Outdoor leisure +2.4% General day out +0.1% Visiting an attraction -9.3% Core Tourism Activities 21-3.5%
Business Confidence Monitor 22
More attractions reported increased visitor numbers than reduced numbers throughout 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers 56 63 54 49 51 54 31-15 -19-14 -24-19 -24 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep 18-56 Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 23
In 2018, attractions reported a tough Easter, but most believe that the summer holiday period was better than in 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers 56 63 54 49 51 54 31-15 -19-14 -24-19 -24 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep 18-56 Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 24
More attractions reported increased visitors as a result of the summer heatwave, but over 1 in 4 stated that their numbers were down as a result. Impact of summer heatwave - attractions 14 25 33 +11% net 20 8 Much more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly more visitors than usual Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business? 25
Over half of outdoor attractions reported increased visitor numbers as a result of the summer heatwave. Indoor attractions were less positive, with around 1/3 reporting reduced numbers Impact of summer heatwave - attractions 20 7 17 +32% net 34 24 42-10% net 23 18 4 11 Outdoor Indoor Much more visitors than usual Slightly more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business? 26
Upcoming Research 27
Discover England Fund Research 2019 Experiential travel: c.10 markets - Wellness; learning; food & drink Multi-generational travel: c.7-8 markets 28
Find out more at www.visitbritain.org 29