Japan-Norway Arctic Science and Innovation Week 216 Sessions : Arctic Maritime Operations and Societal Needs 216-6-3 at 1:: Natsuhiko OTSUKA North Japan Port Consultant Ltd./Hokkaido University ) This work was conducted under the support of &
Recent Activities of the NSR Navigability of the NSR Shipping Cost of Dry Bulk and Liquid Bulk Shipping Cost of LNG Shipping Cost of Container Conclusion
The NSR can shorten the shipping distance, but how could shipping cost be reduced? Does cargo ship can sail the NSR in terms of the commercial point of view? What kind of cargo could be feasible under actual shipping market conditions? What would be a feasible scenario and what would be required?
Cargo vol. 1 3 ton 8, 6, 4, 2,, 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 Since 21, transit activities were increased until 213. In 214, market condition had changed drastically. And transit cargo decreased steeply. Transit cargo vol. 1 3 t 1 5 1 5 1 21 211 212 213 214 215 number of transit voyage Transit cargo volume Shipping activities in in 214 214 5 Number of transit voyage In 215, political uncertainty was increased. And the NSR transit shipping lost its attraction from trade market due to remaining market condition and political uncertainty. However, number of ship that sailed the NSR has been increasing against the background of natural resource development in the Russian Arctic coast. NSR has become an actual but niche sea route which could be used if the trade market condition becomes suitable.
Ssailing speed(kn) Number of ships 15 1 5 4 3 2 1 6 7 8 9 1 11 213 214 215 Month 211 212 213 214 Average other non 1D 1C 1B PC7 PC6 PC5 PC4 PC3 PC2 icebreaker So far, Ship can sail the NSR at an average speed of 1kn from Aug. to Nov. It takes about 1days to transit through the NSR. Ship sails independently in ice free waters at a speed of 14~15kn. In ice free season, number of non ice class ships sailed the NSR mainly in the Kara Sea. In 215, some transit voyages were conducted without icebreaker assistance. However, ice condition is sometime hazardous in June and July.
The author implemented a relationship between Ice Index and sailing speed. And estimated a ship speed along the NSR. PC7 Ice strengthened ship with icebreaker support PC3 Icebreaking LNG carrier independent navigation Ice Index, which is a parameter to implement several ice conditions to Ice Numeral, which represents the extent of difficulty in ice navigation. Sailing speed is estimated under the 213-214 half-monthly average ice concentration for PC7 and PC4 ice class ship. Speed(kn) Speed (kn) Number of icebreaker supported area 2 15 1 5 5 1 Longitude 15 2 2 15 1 5 8 6 4 2 5 1 Longitude 15 2 Jun 1st Jun nd Jul 1st Jul 2nd Aug 1st Aug 2nd Sep 1st Sep 2nd Oct 1st Oct-2nd Nov 1st Jun-2 Jul-2 Aug-2 Sep-2 Oct-2 Nov-2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov 2nd
By the NSR, shortened distance and slower sailing speed within the NSR reduced fuel cost, and cancel out increase in overhead expense of icebreaker fee, ice pilot fee and other disadvantages. Itaqui Itaqui scenario Shipping Scenarios Iron ore NSR Scenario Suez Canal scenario Liquid bulk Route NSR Cape NSR Suez Origin Narvil Itaqui Rotterdam Destination Kimitsu Ohita Mizushima Distance NM 6,135 12,694 8,125 12,337 DWT 75, 25, 1, Shipping cost(usd/ton) Shipping cost (USD/ton) 2 15 1 5 25 2 15 1 5 Jun-1 Jun-2 Jul-1 Jul-2 Aug-1 Aug-2 Sep-1 Sep-2 Oct-1 Oct-2 Nov-1 Nov-2 Itaqui Iron ore shipping cost 1-Jun 2-Jun 1-Jul 2-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug 1-Sep 2-Sep 1-Oct 2-Oct 1-Nov 2-Nov Suez Liquid bulk shipping cost depreciation cost Operational cost other expense Fuel cost Depreciation cost Operational cost Other expsnse Fuel cost
Yamal LNG scenario Sodegaura Qatar scenario https://www.mol.co.jp/ LNG shipping scenarios Route NSR Qatar Origin Yamal Qatar Destination Sodegaura(Chiba, Japan) Distance (NM) 5,84 6,67 Ship size 17,m 3 147,5m 3 Note Icebreaking carrier Expected to start delivery in 218. Special designed icebreaking LNG carrier (PC3) will transport LNG without nuclear icebreaker support. Summer: to Asia, winter: to EU market.
NSRl sailing time (hr) 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5 6-1st 6-2nd 7-1st 7-2nd 8-1st 8-2nd 9-1st 9-2nd 1-1st NSR sailing time(hr) 1-2nd 11-1st 11-2nd Average speed(kn) Average ship speed(kn) cost (usd/m3) 25 2 15 1 5 Jun-1 Jun-2 Jul-1 Jul-2 Aug-1 Aug-2 Sep-1 Sep-2 Oct-1 Oct-2 Nov-1 Nov-2 Qatar Depreciation cost Operational cost Overhead expense Fuel cost Half monthly NSR Sailing time and speed Half monthly LNG Shipping Cost Lead time of Icebreaking carrier from Yamal varies from 14 to 15 days, since the Qatar scenario requires 17 days. Depreciation cost dominates in cost components, followed by fuel&oil cost. LNG shipping cost via the NSR is estimated about 4~6USD/m 3 higher than the Qatar scenario. But this price difference would be 2.7~4.% of spot LNG import price of Japan.
NSR (summer) Suez(winter) Year round container shipping between Hamburg and Yokohama via the NSR in summer, and via the Suez Canal in winter is analyzed. Ship calls at three ports in Asia and three ports in Europe. The lead time for one loop is set as 49days in order to operate weekly service. And sailing speed in normal waters is compensated to operate 49days for one loop. In the NSR scenario, 4,TEU ice class carrier is considered. NSR sailing season is given 15days from July to November. EU Three ports NSR 49days Suez 49days Asia Three ports In the comparative scenario via the Suez Canal, from 8,TEU to 19,TEU container carrier is considered taking into account recent trend of mega ships. In normal waters, ship speed is 15~2kn by NSR scenario and 23.7kn in Suez Canal scenario.
Shipping cost (USD/TEU) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Number of icebreaker supported area Jul-1 Jul-2 Aug-1 Aug-2 Sep-1 Sep-2 Oct-1 Oct-2 Nov-1 Nov-2 Average NSR/SC 4TEU 8TEU 14TEU 19TEU Depreciation cost Operational cost Icebreaker fee Verious expenses Fuel cost Half monthly and yearly LNG shipping cost estimation 8 6 4 2 Jun 1st Jun nd Jul 1st Jul 2nd Aug 1st Aug 2nd Sep 1st Sep 2nd Oct 1st Oct-2nd Nov 1st Number of water area of icebreaker escort required Nov 2nd 19,TEU ship is not capable for this operation since its actual design speed is 23kn. The NSR and Suez Canal combined shipping cost becomes a little bit cheaper than Suez route in 8,TEU ship. Actual Suez Canal route is operated by about 8days in recent years so that the NSR can shorten the lead time drastically. Summer sea ice retreat will reduce ice breaker fee and expand navigable season in future. Quick delivery model would be a key factor to utilize the NSR.
Sailing speed along the NSR is estimated by introducing the relationship between Ice Index and sailing speed. Sailing speed in the NSR varies from 7~15kn for PC7 ship with icebreaker support, and 12~15kn for PC3 ship in independent navigation. Using this sailing model, NSR shipping cost of various cargoes is estimated. Shipping cost of bulk cargoes and finished car can be cut down effectively. LNG from the Arctic coast could be feasible for Asian market as well. But container shipping could be feasible only for cargoes that require short lead time. However, if the NSR navigable season expands, shipping cost difference could be narrowed.
NSR shipping scenario, cost components, and other factors? Freight rate, fuel price, feeder network, piracy, ship building market, natural resource market Ice condition and navigability, risk, safety issues, regulation,,, Characteristics on risk and effect of emission, disposal and accidentally discharged substances. What will take place to the relationship between EU, Russia and East Asia? Natural resource exploitation and Asian demand, fishery, tourism and others? Intl. governance should be needed?
Environmental protection To protect Arctic environment and biodiversity To minimize impact against global environment Social & industrial development To develop Arctic coastal communities. Important for both Arctic coastal states and non-arctic states. Social effect New activities in the Arctic may cause new social impact. Sustainable Industrial / commercial activity Benefit from industrial and commercial activity shall based on sustainability in terms of environmental and commercial point of view. Sustainable Arctic shipping Navigation safety, environmental protection and emission reduction. Precautionary approach should be taken. Benefit from industrial and commercial activity shall be based on sustainability in terms of environmental and commercial point of view. Thank you!