Cris Tarrant CEO (BVA BDRC) @cristarrant State of the Nation Joe Stather Associate Director (CBRE) @joestather #2018HIF
Cris Tarrant CEO (BVA BDRC) @cristarrant Trends & Spends Joe Stather Associate Director (CBRE) @joestather #2018HIF
A moment of reflection 4
summer s lease hath all too short a date 5
GDP growth forecasts for 2018 Source: HM treasury, August 2018 3 End-2018 forecasts 2.5 2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1 0.5 0 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 6
GDP growth forecasts for 2018 Source: HM treasury, August 2018 3 End-2018 forecasts 2.5 2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1 0.5 0 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 7
GDP growth forecasts for 2019 Source: HM treasury, August 2018 3 End-2019 forecasts 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1 0.5 0 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 8
But the outlook rather depends on the sector you are in Source: HIS Markit, September 2018 Services PMI Manufacturing PMI 60 56.9 58.0 55 Growth 50 53.5 53.2 53.7 54.5 54 54.3 50.1 54.8 54.2 52.8 Contraction 45 47.4 May 16 Jul 16 Aug 17 Nov 17 Feb 18 May 18 Aug 18 48.3 May 16 July 16 Aug 17 Nov 17 Feb 18 May 18 Aug 18 9
Brexit concerns weighing on UK net business confidence Source: BDRC for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, 31 August 2018 10
Consumer spending on cards Source: Barclaycard September 2018 15 Monthly Y/Y % change 11.2 10.6 12.3 11.1 11.4 Total consumer spending Hotel consumer spending Long hot summer 10 5 0 4.4 4 4.6 5.5 5.9 4.8 3.5 2.8 2.5 4.6 3 2.9 3 4.1 2.4 5.3 2.8 4.6 4.8 4.9 Beast from the east 4 3.9 3.8 2 0.7 3.4 5.1 2.5 1.5 6 5.1 5 3.6 4.6 4.5 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 11
The summer spending splurge starting to soften Source: Barclaycard, September 2018 August 2016 Year-on-Year 4.2% 14.9% 13.3% 12.7% 2.2% Overall Spending Hotels Pubs Restaurants Airlines August 2017 Year-on-Year 2.9% 3.0% 9.2% 12.4% 2.9% Overall Spending Hotels Pubs Restaurants Airlines August 2018 Year-on-Year 4.5% 4.6% 11.9% 8.8% 7.5% Overall Spending Hotels Pubs Restaurants Airlines 12
Inbound tourism to Britain Source: VisitBritain, International Passenger Survey 65 55 21.9 Bn 22.1 Bn 22.5 Bn 24.5 Bn 26.3 Bn 30 25 45 35 25 15 34.4 M 36.1 M 37.6 M 39.2 M 40.9 M +4.9% +4.0% +4.3% +4.4% 20 15 10 5 0 5-5 -5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 forecast -10 13
Implications for the hotel sector Brexit the indisputable sword of Damocles Outlook more uncertain, especially for business travel, where wait and see runs the risk of translating into lower activity Leisure market buoyant, albeit the backdrop to consumer domestic demand is a rising credit boom. Inflation overtaking wage growth would impact demand yet market resilience a characteristic of recent years Positively, inbound remains strong, with the Visit Britain 40 million visitor target forecast to be hit two years ahead of schedule Know your markets and know your customers path to purchase has never seemed more important so, roll on the rest of today! 14
Hotel real estate UK market update Joe Stather - September 2018 15 15
REGIONAL UK CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH June 2007 to June 2018, nominal, monthly y/y % change 30% 20% y/y change (%) 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Cashflow Growth Yield Impact (Simple) Capital Value Change Source: CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 16
UK PORTFOLIO TRANSACTIONS Transactions by EBITDA multiple and origin of purchaser, size of bubble reflects size of deal in GBP 20.00 18.00 EBITDA multiple 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 Domestic European American APAC ME 8.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 17
UK MARKETS PERFORMANCE CYCLE As of H1 2018 Sheffield London Bristol Leicester Manchester Portsmouth Reading Southampton Bath Heathrow Milton Keynes Luton Hull Bradford Brighton Norwich Cambridge Birmingham Oxford Liverpool Glasgow Derby Nottingham Harrogate Belfast Exeter Leeds Ipswich Cardiff Peterborough Chester Plymouth Swansea Stratford-upon Avon York Edinburgh Northampton Newcastle Aberdeen RevPAR Decline Accelerating RevPAR Decline Slowing RevPAR Growth Accelerating RevPAR Growth Slowing Source: CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 18
UK MARKETS PROFIT CONVERSION 10-year GOP as % of Total Revenue 55% 45% Profit % 35% 25% 15% Country House Hotels Aberdeen Newcastle Leeds Provinces Cardiff Glasgow Bristol Heathrow Liverpool Brighton Belfast Manchester Birmingham London Luxury Edinburgh London High Current Low Source: HotStats, CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 19
UK MARKETS PROFITABILITY AND RISK Annualised 3-year profit growth and 10-year volatility, colour reflects of risk-adjusted market return Annualised Growth (%) 10.00% 0.00% (10.00)% (20.00)% London Edinburgh Bristol Birmingham Liverpool Country House Hotels Provinces Manchester London Luxury Heathrow Leeds Glasgow Newcastle Cardiff Belfast (30.00)% Aberdeen 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Volatility / Risk (%) Source: HotStats, CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 20
UK MARKETS NEW SUPPLY THREAT Confirmed pipeline % of existing room supply, occupancy year-to-date, size of bubble reflects size of market by rooms 25.00% Heathrow 20.00% Plymouth Liverpool Glasgow Pipeline % 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% Aberdeen Leicester Ipswich Reading Luton Hull Birmingham Milton Keynes Bath Cambridge Newcastle Leeds Sheffield Manchester Southampton York Cardiff Brighton Bristol Norwich Edinburgh London Exeter Oxford Belfast 0.00% Bradford Harrogate Stratford-upon-Avon Swansea Portsmouth Derby Nottingham (5.00)% 63.00% 68.00% 73.00% 78.00% 83.00% 88.00% Occupancy Source: STR, CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 21
UK C.O.R.E ANALYSIS CBRE Opportunity Rating Engine Global Travel and Tourism 5 4 Investor Demand 4 3 UK Hotel Demand 3 Technology 2 2 1 UK Hotel Supply 5 Exceptional opportunity 4 Good opportunity 3 Neutral 2 Medium risk 1 Threat Hotel Operational Costs Market Disruptors Short term Long term Source: CBRE, 2018 JOE STATHER, CBRE HOTELS ǀ UK MARKET UPDATE 22