Glasgow and Clyde Valley

Glasgow and Clyde Valley Skills Assessment January 2016 SDS-1188-Feb16

Acknowledgement The Regional Skills Assessment Steering Group (Skills Development Scotland, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group) would like to thank Ekosgen for their highly professional support in the analysis and collation of the data that forms the basis of this Skills Assessment Update.

Contents Introduction 3 What is this report? 3 What has changed in Scotland since 2014? 3 The Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal 3 Selected headline indicator changes 4 1 Economic performance 5 Headline summary 5 Gross Value Added (GVA) 5 Productivity 5 Earnings 6 Business base 6 Infrastructure 7 2 Profile of the workforce 8 Headline summary 8 Total employment 8 Employment structure by industry 8 Occupational profile 10 3 People and skills supply 11 Headline summary 11 Population 11 Labour market participation 12 Qualifications and attainment 13 4 Deprivation 13 Headline summary 13 Key messages 13 5 Education and training provision 14 Headline summary 14 Modern Apprenticeships (MAs) 14 School and further/ higher education provision 15 6 Skills mismatches 17 Headline summary 17 7 Looking forward 18 Headline summary 18 Population projections 18 Education provision projections 18 Employment projections 18 8 Conclusions and considerations 19

Introduction What is this report? This is the 2015 summary Regional Skills Assessment (RSA) for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal region (the City Deal region). It has been developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. It provides the latest data for the City Deal region, refreshing what this means for skills planning. The 2015 RSAs have been designed to support the SFC and Regional Colleges in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements, and to support SDS in planning its provision for individuals and businesses. Here, the City Deal region RSA is also designed to help regional partners with skills investment planning at the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal spatial level. Individual local authority level summary reports have also been produced. The 2015 series of reports highlight some of the key messages for the City Deal regions. They are summary reports, underpinned by the full data matrix, available at sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/. The data matrix has been redesigned to be more user-friendly, and accompanying guidance on how to use the matrix can be found alongside the full data matrix. What has changed in Scotland since 2014? The economic situation in Scotland has continued to improve in the last year, and the recovery evident at the time of the last RSA is more firmly established, with rising GVA and falling unemployment. Against many indicators, Scotland has returned to prerecession levels. There continues to be a rise in the participation of women and older workers, and youth unemployment previously apparent has started to fall. Still, underemployment remains an issue and productivity growth in Scotland (and the UK) remains weak and largely consumer-driven. In policy terms, a new Economic Strategy for Scotland is in place. This puts the 4 I s Internationalisation, Investment, Innovation and Inclusive Growth as central to the strategy. Increasing exports continues to be a key policy objective, and the prominence of Inclusive Growth reflects the desire for a re-balancing form of economic growth. Innovation, including workplace innovation, continues to be highly important. Investment continues to be necessary for firms to be successful. Existing strategies and policies also remain important, including the 2010 Skills Strategy and the 2014 Developing the Young Workforce - Scotland s Youth Employment Strategy. The 2015 RSA seeks to reflect some of these policy developments. For the first time the data matrix includes deprivation indicators, and there is greater attention paid to inequality issues such as age, disability and gender indicators. There is also more detail on school-level provision, migration, travel to work/study, claimant counts and employment projections. The Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal This 2015 City Deal Skills Assessment covers the geographic area of Glasgow City, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, East Renfrewshire, Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire. Data for the region has been calculated by aggregating the data from the eight local authority areas, although individual local authority data is presented where this illustrates differences between the eight. 3

Selected headline indicator changes Economic performance Previous Year Current Year % change Gross Value Added (GVA) ( m) 37,004 (2012) 38,287 (2013) +3.5% GVA per worker 46,100 (2012) 47,000 (2013) +2.0% Number of businesses 54,840 (2013) 56,680 (2014) +3.4% Business births per 10,000 31 (2012) 39 (2013) +25.8% BERD per head 97 (2012) 129 (2013) +33.0% Profile of the workforce Total employment 810,000 (2013) 836,600 (2014) +3.3% Professional occupations 160,700 (2013) 171,300 (2014) +6.6% People and skills supply Total population 1,790,600 (2013) 1,796,000 (2014) +0.3% ILO unemployed 73,300 (2013/14) 69,400 (2014/15) -5.3% 16-24 unemployed 10,726 (2014) 7,051 (2015) -34.3% 18-24 unemployed (claimants) 10,360 (Aug 2014) Deprivation 6,760 (Aug 2015) -34.7% Workless households 146,228 (2012) 151,985 (2013) +3.9% % of children with free school meals Education and training n/a 41% (2015) n/a MA starts 8,870 (2013/14) 9,140 (2014/15) +3.0% MA achievements as % of all leavers 78% (2013/14) 74% (2014/15) -4 percentage points Employability Fund starts - 7,830 (2014/15) - College provision (headcount) 98,870 (2012/13) 108,839 (2013/14) +10.1% College provision of HE 23% (2012/13) 21% (2013/14) -2 percentage points Total Higher Education students 79,140 (2012/13) 81,062 (2013/14) +2.4% Skills mismatches % of employers reporting hard to fill vacancies % of employers reporting skills shortage vacancies 4% (2014) (next updated 2016) 3% (2014) (next updated 2016) n/a n/a 4

1 Economic performance Headline summary GVA increased by 3.5% in the region between 2012 and 2013, similar to the previous year. Regional output is 33% of the national total. Productivity levels are in line with the Scotland average but below the UK averages. Average workplace earnings in the City Deal region pay above the Scottish and UK averages, although they are lower in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire. Residence-based earnings are notably above the Scottish average in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. The business base increased at the same rate as for Scotland in 2014, with the business base characterised by professional, scientific and technical, retail and business administration and support services businesses. There are also slightly more large employers than average in the City Deal region. Business Expenditure on Research and Development (BERD) per head was below the Scotland average by 14% in 2013, although this was a significant increase on 2012. Gross Value Added (GVA) The City Deal region continues to generate a significant proportion of Scotland s output (33%), up from the previous year (32%), and this is dominated by the following sectors: production (23% of the region s total); public administration; education, health (21%); distribution; transport; accommodation and food (15%); and real estate activities (12%). The growth rate from 2012 to 2013 (latest data) was 3.5%, higher than the 2.9% increase across Scotland, and a strong increase from the 0.6% to 2012. Productivity Levels of productivity in the City Deal region are in line with the Scottish average but below the UK average, although they have increased in recent years. GVA per worker as a measure of productivity in the region was 47,000 in 2013, an increase from the 46,100 in 2012, but still lower than the UK average of 51,000. GVA per worker in the City Deal region increased by 11% between 2006 and 2013, but below the 18% growth in Scotland and 17% for the UK. Earnings Most recent (2014) data shows that full time workplace jobs in Renfrewshire ( 540), Glasgow ( 539) and South Lanarkshire ( 532) pay above the average in Scotland ( 519) and the UK ( 518). Jobs in East Renfrewshire ( 441) and East Dunbartonshire ( 471) pay notably below the average. Median full-time workplace earnings increased in Inverclyde (8%), South Lanarkshire (6%) and Glasgow (3%) from 2013 to 2014, above the 2% Scotland average, although they fell by 10% in East Dunbartonshire. However, those living in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire earn notably more than average ( 653 and 610 per week, compared to 518 in Scotland). Many in the neighbouring local authority areas commute to better paid jobs in Glasgow and elsewhere. Those living in Glasgow ( 498), North Lanarkshire ( 482) and Inverclyde ( 509) earn below the average for full time work. 5

Business base There were 56,680 VAT/ PAYE registered businesses in the City Deal region in 2014, up 3.4% from 2013, higher than the 2.8% increase in Scotland, although less than the 3.6% rise across the UK. The business base has grown by 5% between 2010-14, equal to the 5% in Scotland but slightly less than the 6% rise in the UK as a whole. 110 105 100 95 Index of Business Base, 2010-14 Source: UK Business Counts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Glasgow City Deal Scotland UK Professional, scientific and technical businesses accounted for 14% of all businesses in the City Deal region in 2014 (slightly lower than the 15% in Scotland), while retail businesses accounted for 13% (above the Scottish proportion of 11%). Similarly, health and business admin and support businesses are more represented (7% compared to 6% in Scotland). Business Base by sector Glasgow Scotland Professional, scientific & technical 14% 15% Retail 13% 11% Construction 9% 9% Arts, entertainment, other services 8% 7% Accommodation & food services 8% 8% Health 7% 6% Business admin & support 7% 6% Production 5% 5% Information & communication 5% 5% Wholesale 4% 4% Property 4% 3% Transport & storage 4% 3% Education 3% 3% Finance & insurance 3% 2% Motor trades 3% 3% Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2% 9% Public admin & defence 2% 1% Total 56,680 203,760 Source: UK Business Counts In 2014, the profile of businesses by size remained broadly similar to Scotland, although there were slightly more large businesses in the region and slightly fewer microbusinesses. 78% of registered businesses in the City Deal region are micro firms employing fewer than 10 people (compared to 80% nationally), 4% employ more than 50 and 375 businesses employ more than 250. There were 6,990 business births in 2013; 39 per 10,000 population, below the Scotland rate of 40, although this was a considerable increase on the 31 in 2012. Levels of Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD) in the City Deal region were below the Scotland average in 2013 at 129 per head compared to 150. However, this was a significant increase from the 97 per head in 2012 (compared to Scotland s 133). There are 805 Scottish Enterprise account managed companies, up from 754 the previous year, 40% of the total in lowland Scotland (and above its share of businesses, 28%). 6

Infrastructure There are some major planned developments over the coming years. The Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Region Deal proposes some 1.13bn in City Deal investment over the next 20 years. It is expected to permanently uplift GVA by 4.4% per annum, generate some 15,000 construction jobs during the delivery period, and create 28,000 permanent additional jobs once the construction period is complete. In Glasgow City, City Deal investment is 388m in housing, transport infrastructure, site remediation and development in the City Centre, West End, Clyde Waterfront, Carlton Barras and North Gateway, significantly increasing demand for construction, engineering and related skills. There is 44m in planned tourism and infrastructure development in East Renfrewshire plus extensive planned housing development. In East Dunbartonshire, there is a number of education and leisure and community related investments, including the mergers of primary schools in Lenzie, Bearsden, Kirkintilloch and Bishopbriggs and the 18m Allander Leisure Centre; as well as City Deal Bishopbriggs Relief Road. There is 28m of City Deal money anticipated to be invested in West Dunbartonshire for an alternative route for the A82 at the Bowling Exxon Site, as well as 22.5m over the next 12 months for the provision of a new leisure centre in Clydebank and 23m in large care homes in Dumbarton and Clydebank. Within Lanarkshire, transport investment includes the Cathkin By-Pass ( 22m), the dualling of Stewartfield Way ( 62m) and the A726 ( 23m). Also part of the City Deal, Community Growth Areas (CGAs) and associated infrastructure works will be developed over the next 20 years in Newton, Hamilton, Larkhall and East Kilbride. 7

2 Profile of the workforce Headline summary Total employment in the City Deal area increased strongly in 2013 and 2014, following job losses 2009-2012. At 3.3%, this was above the Scotland rate of jobs growth. The health, business administration and support services sector and retail are the largest employment sectors, comprising 38% of total jobs. There was significant growth in the proportion of the workforce employed in professional occupations between 2004 and 2014, and a decrease in the share of those in administrative and secretarial roles. In all, 171,300 are in professional occupations in the City Deal region, now accounting for just above the national average share of total employment. Total employment This report provides new employment data for 2013 and 2014. Total employment in the City Deal region increased strongly between 2012 and 2014, to 836,600 from 792,200. At 5.6%, this is a rate above Scotland s rate of 4.6%. However, employment has still to return to the 2009 level (853,100). 105 Index of Total Employment, 2009-14 Source: Business Register and Employment Survey 100 95 90 85 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Glasgow City Deal Scotland GB Employment structure by industry Employment in the health sector is significant in the region, and, at 17% of the workforce (144,600 jobs), this is slightly above the proportion in Scotland (16%) and the UK (13%). A further 93,100 are employed in business administration and support services, 11% of the total and above the Scotland proportion of 8%. Employment in retail is also relatively significant, with 83,600 (10%) employed in the sector, in line with both the Scotland and UK averages. 8

Business administration and support services employment is 144% of the Scotland average. Other concentrations of employment are in property services (119%) and in the higher value added sectors of information and communication (117%) and finance and insurance (115%), reflecting the importance of commercial activities in the City Deal region. Continuing a long-term trend, the City Deal region is now under-represented in production employment. Sectoral specialisation exists for those sectors with a value which is above 100%. Glasgow City Deal region sector specialisation (2014) Business admin. & support services 144% Retail 100% Property 119% Arts, entertainment & recreation 99% Information & communication 117% Education 96% Financial & insurance 115% Motor trades 92% Health 108% Professional, scientific & technical 88% Transport & storage (inc postal) 107% Accommodation & food services 87% Public administration & defence 104% Production 87% Wholesale 104% Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2% Construction 103% Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Key changes in the top 20 sectors (of all 616, four-digit SIC code sectors) in the City Deal region over the 2012-2014 period include a rise in health and social work employment, such as other human health activities (9,000 jobs) and other social work activities (3,700). Service employment growth has been strong in the restaurants sector, by around 6,300, whilst there was a decline in hotel and public order/safety employment: Other human health activities (+63%) Hotels (-10%) Restaurants (+28%) Public order and safety activities (-10%) General cleaning of buildings (+23%) Beverage serving activities (-5%) In 2013, there were over 195,000 jobs in the Scottish Government identified growth sectors in the City Deal region, the majority being in Financial and business services (79,000) and Sustainable tourism (58,000). The region has specialisation in the Creative industries (120%) and Financial and business services (111%) sectors. The region is under-represented in Sustainable tourism (84%), Energy (55%) and Food and drink (50%). Of the total 82.5m Regional Selective Assistance awarded to businesses in the region between 2011 and 2014, the greatest proportion has been awarded to firms in the Financial services ( 26.4m), Digital media and enabling technologies ( 11.2m) and Energy ( 10.1m) sectors. These grants are estimated to have created/safeguarded some 10,400 jobs in the region. 9

Occupational profile A greater share of the City Deal region s workforce is employed in professional occupations (21%, compared to 20% in Scotland). At 30%, the proportion is particularly high in East Dunbartonshire, although residents typically commute to jobs out of the area. There is also a higher proportion of those across the City Deal region employed in associate professional and technical jobs (14%, compared to 13% in Scotland). There is a lower than average proportion of people employed in elementary (10%) and process, plant and machine operatives (6%) occupations. Occupational Profile, 2014 Source: Annual Population Survey Elementary occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Sales and Customer Service Caring, leisure and other service occupation Skilled Trades Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Associate Prof & Tech Professional Occupations Managers, Directors & Senior Officials 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Glasgow City Deal Scotland There have been significant changes in the occupational profile of the City Deal region between 2004 and 2014. The proportion of those employed in professional occupations has risen from 17% to 21%, and care, leisure and other service occupations have grown from 8% to 10% of the workforce. The greatest reductions over the period have been in administrative and secretarial roles, which decreased from 14% to 11% of the workforce, and amongst process, plant and machine operatives, from 8% to 6%. 10

3 People and skills supply Headline summary The population increased at a slower rate than the Scotland average between 2013 and 2014. The rate of increase has also been slower over the last decade. The employment rate continues to lag behind that of Scotland, although the differential reduced between 2012/13 and 2014/2015. The ILO unemployment rate decreased from 2013/14 to 2014/15 although it is still two percentage points higher than for Scotland. The numbers of young people unemployed and those out of work and not in education or training have decreased significantly. Some 200,500 in the City Deal region are work-limited disabled, which represents a higher rate than for Scotland. The proportion of school leavers in the region entering Higher Education continued to increase in the year to 2013/2014, and is above the Scottish rate. A greater proportion of the region s population than average have no qualifications. A similar proportion has higher level qualifications to the Scottish average. Population The City Deal region population has continued to grow in recent years, although at a slower than Scotland and UK averages. At an estimated 1,796,000, the 2014 population was marginally higher than 1,790,600 in 2013. This was a 0.3% increase, broadly in line with Scotland at 0.4%. Over the period from 2004, the City Deal region s population has increased by 3%, compared to 5% growth in Scotland and 8% growth in the UK over the same period. 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 Index of Total Population, 2004-14 Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates 96 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Glasgow City Deal Scotland UK The largest increases have been those aged 45-54 and 55-64. Those aged 45-64 combined have increased by 17% since 2004, slightly higher than for Scotland as a whole at 16%. The number of those aged 35-45 has fallen by 17% since 2004, compared to a 15% fall across Scotland. A net number of 24,875 people have entered the area over the 10 year period, as the population has increased overall. 11

Labour market participation In 2014/15, the employment rate for the City Deal region was 70%, an increase from 69% in 2013/14, although still below the Scottish average of 73%. The City Deal region employment rate has typically been 3 to 4 percentage points below the Scotland average since 2004/2005. The rate varies from 65% in Glasgow and 66% in West Dunbartonshire, to 75% in South Lanarkshire. 74% of jobs in the City Deal region are full time, equal to the Scottish rate. This is a one percentage point increase from 2013/14. Part time jobs are more common in East Renfrewshire (31%), East Dunbartonshire (28%) and West Dunbartonshire (28%). Part time employment rates are lower in South Lanarkshire (24%), Inverclyde (25%) and Glasgow (25%). In 2013/2014 there were 73,300 ILO unemployed (those out of work and actively seeking work), and this decreased to 69,400 in 2014/2015, similar to the trends at the Scotland and UK levels. The number of ILO unemployed in 2014/2015, however, is still above the prerecession, 2008/2009 level of 56,200 (and in some parts of the City Deal region ILO unemployment increased in 2014/2015). The ILO unemployment rate in 2014/15 was 8% in the City Deal region, compared to 6% in Scotland and the UK. In 2015 there were 7,051 unemployed young people aged 16 to 24 in the region, a reduction of 34% from the previous year, in line with the rate of decrease across Scotland. There were 6,760 young people aged 18-24 out of work and claiming Jobseekers Allowance (as of August 2015), a large fall from 10,360 the previous year. There were also 6,500 young people described as Not in Employment, Education or Training in 2014. This has fallen by 41% since 2010, higher than the Scottish average decrease of 36%. The rate of 8% in the City Deal region remains above the 6% average across Scotland. In all, 17% of all those aged 16-64 in the City Deal region are work-limited through disability, above than the 15% in Scotland and the UK. This represents some 200,500 people in the region that are work-limited through disability. Travel to work distances are broadly similar to the Scotland averages. Slightly fewer than one in 10 works from home (9% compared to 11% in Scotland). One in 10 travel more than 20km, compared to 13% in Scotland. More than four in 10 travel between 2km and 10km (42%), compared to 36% across Scotland, reflecting relatively short travelling distances into Glasgow City Centre from the surrounding areas. 12

Qualifications and attainment The proportion of school leavers entering Higher Education continued to increase in 2014/2015, to 42%, up from 40% in 2013/14, and above the Scottish rate of 38%. The proportion entering Further Education, at 26% is also above the Scotland average (of 24%), up from 23% the previous year. Just under a fifth (19%) entered employment, down from 25% in 2013/14. The proportion unemployed (seeking or otherwise) continued to fall to 7% in 2014/2015 (from 8% in 2013/2014 and 10% in 2012/2013). In all, 92% entered a positive destination, close to the Scotland level of 93%. 13% of those aged 16-64 years in the City Deal region have no qualifications; in Scotland and the UK this is 9%. A similar proportion (10%) has lower level qualifications, lower than Scotland (11%) and the UK (12%). At 40%, the City Deal region has a broadly similar rate of high level qualifications (at SCQF 7-12) as Scotland (41%). In terms of 16-24 year olds, 9% have no qualifications in the region, higher than the Scotland figure of 7%. At just under a quarter (24%), the proportion of young people with high level qualifications in the region is the same as that across Scotland. 4 Deprivation Headline summary Average household earnings in Glasgow City, Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire are lower than the Scotland average, although a higher proportion in Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire have incomes 30,000+. There are some 151,985 workless households in the region, concentrated in Glasgow City, West Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde. The proportion of school pupils entitled to free school meals is higher than the Scotland average. The 2015 data matrix includes data on deprivation for the first time. This affects both labour market supply and the skills support needs of individuals. The data highlights large differences between the more deprived areas, such as parts of the Glasgow City area, and more affluent parts of the City Deal region, such as East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire. Key messages The highest proportions of households with average earnings of less than 10,000 per year are in Glasgow City (19%), Inverclyde (17%) and West Dunbartonshire (15%), compared to 13% across Scotland. The proportion is lowest in East Dunbartonshire (10%). By contrast, just 21% of households in Glasgow City have incomes above 30,000, compared to 31% across Scotland. The proportion of households earning more than 30,000 per year is highest in East Dunbartonshire (47%), East Renfrewshire (39%) Renfrewshire (34%) and South Lanarkshire (33%). 13

Within the City Deal region local authority areas, 30% of Glasgow City households, 28% in West Dunbartonshire and 24% in Inverclyde are workless households, compared to 20% in Scotland and 17% in the UK. In East Dunbartonshire (14%) and East Renfrewshire (16%), these proportions are well below average. Overall, this equates to some 151,985 workless households in the City Deal region (2013). In 2012, the City Deal region s datazones accounted for 65% of the 10% most deprived datazones in Scotland. This is an increase from the previous year (63%) although a considerable decrease from 2004, when nearly three quarters (74%) of the top 10% most deprived datazones in Scotland were in the City Deal region. The employment domain of the latest (2012) Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides further information on employment deprivation. Over a quarter (26%) of the City Deal region s 2,199 datazones (577) are in the 15% most employment deprived datazones in Scotland. Of these, 279 are in Glasgow, 94 are in North Lanarkshire, 63 are in South Lanarkshire and 53 are in Renfrewshire. In all, 41% of those at school in the region are entitled to free school meals. This is above the Scottish average of 39%. Again, this masks considerable variation with the City Deal region, for example Glasgow City (50%) and West Dunbartonshire (47%) compared to East Renfrewshire (29%). 5 Education and training provision Headline summary The number of SDS-supported MA starts in the region in 2014/2015 increased slightly from the previous year, with business and administration, hospitality, retail, freight logistics and social services being some of the most popular frameworks. There were over 108,000 FE students at the Colleges in the City Deal region 2013/14, an increase on the previous year, with business management and administration, hairdressing and beauty and care the most common courses taken. 21% of students were studying HE at College. Over 81,000 students were studying at Higher Education Institutions in the region in 2013/2014, an increase of 2% from the previous year, with nearly three quarters from outwith the region. There were nearly 32,000 graduates from the region in 2013/14, 38% of all graduates in Scotland. Almost two thirds of these went into full-time work (63%), higher than the previous year and 17% of these went into the education sector. Modern Apprenticeships (MAs) There were 9,140 MA starts supported by SDS in the City Deal region in 2014/2015, an increase from the 8,870 in 2013/2014. Over half of these starts were male (59%) and the remainder female (41%), broadly similar to the split across Scotland. There were 9,270 SDS-supported leavers in 2014/2015. 14

The most popular frameworks for starts were in business and administration (1,090), hospitality (750), retail (635), freight logistics (625), social services (children and young people) (540), customer service (455), automotive (440) and hairdressing and barbering (430). Some of these remain dominated by one gender or the other, including automotive and freight logistics (male) and social services (children and young people), hairdressing and barbering and business and administration (female). In other sectors, such as customer service and retail, there is more of a gender balance. One half (50%) of MA starts in the City Deal region in 2014/2015 were 16-19 years old, slightly less than the average in Scotland (52%). A further 27% were aged 20-24 years old and the remaining 23% were 25 and over. Achievements at 74% in 2014/2015, as a percentage of all leavers, was lower than the previous year (78%) although this is equal to the Scotland average (74%). The rates in the City Deal region, however, have risen over the last five years overall (achievements as a percentage of all leavers in 2010/2011 was 71%). Employability Fund (EF) The EF supports a range of interventions to support employability. There were 7,830 EF starts in the City Deal region in 2014/2015. Just under two thirds of these (65%) were male, higher than the 63% in Scotland, and 35% were female, compared to 37% in Scotland. EF starts by age are in line with the Scotland average, with 56% aged 16-17 years, 25% aged 18-24 and 19% aged 25 and above. Within this, there were 1,360 starts on the Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) in the City Deal region, the new national work placement and class-based Award, involving up to 540 employers. School and Further/ Higher Education provision School provision For the first time, the data matrix provides information on school provision. There were 100,348 pupils enrolled at secondary school across the City Deal region in 2014, 30% of whom were S5 and S6, a little higher than the 29% across Scotland. The school roll is projected to fall consistently until 2018 (by around 2%) which is the same rate of decline forecast across Scotland over the period to 2018. College provision College provision in the City Deal region are from the following Colleges: Kelvin College, Glasgow Clyde College and City of Glasgow College 1 in Glasgow; New College Lanarkshire 2 and South Lanarkshire College in Lanarkshire; and West College Scotland (formed from the merger of Clydebank College, James Watt College Inverclyde Campus and Reid Kerr College in 2013/2014) in the West region. 1 The three Colleges in Glasgow were formed from a series of mergers. Glasgow Kelvin College was formed through a merger of the following: John Wheatley College, North Glasgow College and Stow College (November 2013). Glasgow Clyde College was formed through a merger of: Anniesland College, Cardonald College and Langside College (August 2013). The City of Glasgow College was formed from the merger of: Central College Glasgow, Glasgow College of Nautical Studies and Glasgow Metropolitan College in September 2010. 2 New College Lanarkshire formed in 2013/2014 from the merger of Coatbridge College, Cumbernauld College and North Lanarkshire College. 15

108,839 students (headcount) were studying at College in the City Deal region in 2013/2014, an increase of 9% from the previous year (98,830). 79% of these were studying at FE level, an increase from 77% the previous year and 21% at HE level, a fall from 23%. In all, 13% were from outside the City Deal region. A smaller proportion than the Scottish average are aged under 16 (with 9% in the City Deal region compared to 12% in Scotland) and a higher proportion are older (43% are aged over 25 compared to 39% across Scotland). A higher proportion of students aged 16-19 are on full time courses. More than half (53%) of college students in the City Deal region are female, higher than the 52% average in Scotland, with 47% male (just below the 48% across Scotland). Overall, 26% are from the most deprived 10% areas - (10% higher than the 16% in Scotland) reflecting that the City Deal region contains some of Scotland s most deprived communities. 94% of residents in the City Deal region at College study locally. The most popular courses included Business, management and administration (14% of courses in the Glasgow region), Hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies (14% in the West region) and Care (20% in the Lanarkshire region) are amongst those most taken up. These figures are above the Scottish averages and similar to the figures in 2012/2013. University provision In all, 81,062 students (headcount) were studying at the Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the City Deal region in 2013/2014. These institutions include: University of Glasgow, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow School of Art, Royal Conservatoire of Scotland and University of Strathclyde, University of West of Scotland (UWS), Hamilton Region and West Region Campuses. This was an increase of 2% on the previous year (79,140 students). Just over a quarter (26%) of these students were from within the region, an increase from the 22% in 2012/13, although the 74% from outside the region reflects that these are national institutions attracting students from the rest of the UK and beyond. The age profile of students is in line with the Scottish averages. Overall, 43% of HEI students in the area are female and 57% are male, a similar proportion to the Scottish average. Business and administrative studies were the most popular courses in 2013/14 in Glasgow (15%), Lanarkshire (14%) and West region (21%) and Subjects Allied to Medicine (12% in Glasgow, 24% in Lanarkshire and 19% in West region). Graduates There were 31,971 graduates from the City Deal region in 2013/14, an increase from 29,650 in 2012/2013, which is 38% of all graduates from Scotland s HEIs. This included 21,424 graduates with a first degree (67%) and a further 10,431 postgraduates (33%). Six months after graduating, almost two thirds of graduates were in full time work (63%), more than the 61% in Scotland and higher than the previous year (54%). A further 12% were working part time, 14% were in further study and 5% were working and studying. The proportion of graduates unemployed was 6%, just above the Scotland average of 5%. The City Deal region graduates were most commonly employed in the public sector education (17% in Glasgow) and human health and social work (32% in Lanarkshire and 26% in West region) as was the case in Scotland. In Glasgow, one in 10 were employed in professional, scientific and technical activities (10%) compared to 9% nationally. 13% of graduates from Lanarkshire and 9% of graduates from West region were employed in wholesale and retail trade. 16

6 Skills mismatches Headline summary Over two thirds of employers in the City Deal region had recruited 2-3 years prior to the survey. FE leavers in the City Deal region were deemed less work-ready by employers than the Scotland average, although this was the reverse for school leavers. Employers reported vacancies at the same rate as the Scottish average. They were less likely to report more hard to fill vacancies or skills shortages. Skills gaps were most likely in skilled trade, sales and customer services, operative or elementary occupations. There is no new data on skills mismatches beyond that presented in last year s survey which presented data for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley region, given that the survey is undertaken every two years. The key messages to re-emphasise from the last survey are: 66% of employers in the City Deal region had recruited in the 2-3 years prior to the survey, and 29% had taken on leavers from Scottish education institutions (both above the Scotland averages). Of those recruiting leavers, 83% of those from universities were regarded as well or very well prepared for work, and 74% of those from colleges (which was below the Scotland average of 78%). However, 68% of school leavers were regarded as well or very well prepared for work which was three percentage points higher than the Scotland average. Of those reported to be poorly prepared, the main reasons cited were a lack of world/ life experience, poor attitude or lack of motivation or lack of required skills or competencies. Employers in the City Deal region reported current vacancies at the same rate as the Scotland average (15%). They were less likely to report more hard to fill vacancies (4% compared to 6% in Scotland) and skills shortage vacancies (3% compared to 4% in Scotland). Nearly a fifth of City Deal region employers (18%) reported that not all of their staff were fully proficient, although this was slightly below the average for Scotland of 19% - with skills gaps most likely in skilled trade, sales and customer service, operative or elementary occupations. The City Deal region has high concentrations of employment in financial and business services. A Skills Investment Plan has been produced for this sector, highlighting a series of priority actions to address current and future skills gaps and shortages. The Skills Investment Plans can be found here: sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/skills-investment-plans/ 17

7 Looking forward Headline summary The population of the region is forecast to increase, by almost 40,000 and 2% to 2024, although this is slower than Scotland and UK growth rates. The greatest increases are forecast for those of retirement age and school roll numbers are set to decline, in line with the picture across Scotland. Employment growth is also forecast, of more than 5% to 2022 at a national level, with the proportion growing fastest in Information technology and health and social work. Population projections 2012 based-projections indicate that the population of the City Deal region is forecast to increase by 39,664 over the 2014-2024 period; an increase of 2%. This is below the 4% growth expected at the Scotland level and the projected growth of 5% at the UK level. Until 2022, the largest proportionate increases in the City Deal region are expected in those of retirement age, where there is anticipated to be a 21% increase in those aged 75+ (below the Scottish average), a 16% increase in those aged 65-74 years (similar to the Scottish average), and a 11% increase in those aged 50-64 years (above the Scottish average). This may have implications for the region in terms of pressure on health and social care services. There is, however, a decline projected in younger age groups, including a 10% decrease amongst those aged under 16-29, more so than the Scotland forecast rate of decline, as well as a 5% forecast fall in the 30-49 age band. The exception is for those under 16 year olds, where there is anticipated to be a 3% rise, similar to the increase across Scotland. Education provision projections As the summary indicates, the school roll is projected to fall over the period to 2018 (where there will be an estimated 2% decline). Across Scotland, the trend is for a 2% fall over the period to 2018. Employment projections There is no new data on employment projections since the 2014 RSA reports. Based on 2012 figures, national employment figures are projected to rise by 5.3% between 2012 and 2022, with the fastest increases occurring between 2017 and 2020. The sectors with the largest projected employment growth over the period are information technology (32%), health and social work (17%), real estate (14%) and electricity and gas, finance and insurance and construction (all 13%). For the City Deal region, health and social work, which is already a key, and growing, employment sector, is likely to continue to create regions in the region in the future. Also, real estate/property is set to become even more specialised in the region. 18

There is, however, projected to be considerable fall in agriculture employment (-15%), other manufacturing (-12%), public administration (-11%) and mining and quarrying (- 10%). In employment terms, agriculture, production and the public sector are less relied upon in the City Deal region than they are elsewhere in Scotland, meaning these declines are likely to more felt elsewhere. 8 Conclusions and considerations The 2015 RSA update indicates economic growth in the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal region, and against a number of measures this is faster than the Scottish average. The growth in the employment and business base outpaced the Scotland average in 2014, and output too increased above the average. The Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal region continues to develop as a financial and business services base and business administration and support services now employs more than 93,000, the second largest employment sector economy and businesses are investing in greater levels of R&D. The proportion employed in professional occupations across the City Deal region is now just above the Scottish average, and this was not the case 10 years previously. Although there has been strong recent performance, the Glasgow City Deal region as a whole was hit harder by the recession than Scotland as a whole, and despite the recent recovery, employment levels remain 2% below those of 2009 a shortfall of 16,500 jobs. This is unlike the situation in Scotland and the UK where employment is now higher than in 2009. Although narrowing, the region s employment rate differential remains three percentage points below the Scotland average. As the economy of the Glasgow region has improved, unemployment rates have fallen, and this includes youth unemployment which has decreased significantly in line with the falls Scotland-wide. ILO measure unemployment across the City Deal region continued to fall in 2014/2015 although in parts of the region the number increased, which may be raising questions about the strength of the recovery. More than 200,000 across the City Deal region are work-limited through disability and there are over 150,000 workless households, and whilst the extent of deprivation has fallen, including in Glasgow City itself, large numbers remain disadvantaged in the labour market. There are large variations in earnings within the City Deal region, and significant commuting flows within it. Those living in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire earn up to 30%-35% more on average than those living in Glasgow City and North Lanarkshire for full time work. There are higher proportions without qualifications than average, and this continues to include those aged 16-24 where 9% have no qualifications. Tackling low attainment and enabling more young people to overcome barriers to entering the labour market remain priorities for the City Deal region. The challenge is to ensure that the supply of skills is sufficient to meet the demands of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal region s growing economy and to further widen participation in the labour market. The number of MAs increased in 2014/2015. More were studying at City Deal region s Colleges in the last year, up nearly 10%, and an increasing proportion are going on to Higher and Further Education rather than employment. More than 20% of College provision is now at HE level. 19

The City Deal region produces a large share of all Scotland s graduates and the last survey indicates that a higher proportion are going into a job as the economy strengthens. This can help meet business demand for higher level skills in the region, particularly in key sectors, with support available to help connect graduates to employers with skills gaps. However, the greatest gaps are in skilled trades and customer services and replacement demand is greatest in social care, tourism and in construction, which will continue to have an impact on FE provision in particular. 20