China Outbound Tourism Index COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Georg Arlt 7th UNWTO/PATA Forum on Tourism Trends and Outlook October 21-23, 2013 Guilin/China 1
I C.O.M.I. China Outbound Market Intelligence is a quarterly online publication by COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, providing information, analyses and forecasts for the current and future development of the Chinese outbound tourism market. 2
COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute The world's leading independent research institute for information, training, quality assessment, research and consulting relating to the Chinese outbound tourism market. Established: 2004 Headquarter: China offices: Heide (Germany) Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu COTRI Country Partner in: Australia, Belgium, Bhutan, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Cambodia, Croatia, England, Estonia, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Kosovo, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Mauritius, Mexico, Myanmar, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Peru, Russia, Scotland, Serbia, Slovenia, Thailand, Tunisia, USA, Vietnam, Wales COTRI Germany Headquarter: Fritz-Thiedemann-Ring 20 25746 Heide / Germany Phone +49 481 85 55 523 Fax +49 481 85 55 121 Email info@china-outbound.com COTRI China Headquarter: 101/2B Gui Gu Liang Cheng 1 Nong Da Nan Rd., Haidian Beijing 100084 / P.R. of China Phone +86 134 2603 6722 Email china@china-outbound.com COTRI Office Shanghai: Suite 1512 Shui On Plaza 333 Huaihai Rd. Shanghai 200021 COTRI Office Guangzhou: Suite 2412 South Tower WTC 371-375 Huanshi East Rd. Guangzhou 510095 3
New: www.forbes.com COTRI China Tourism Blog Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Georg Arlt FRGS First visit to People s Republic of China in 1978 1991-1999 owner of Inbound Tour Operator China -> Europe (offices in Beijing and Berlin) COTRI founder and director since 2004 Professor for International Tourism Management at West Coast University of Applied Sciences (Heide) Visiting Professor at universities in China and United Kingdom Fellow Royal Geographical Society (London) Research Fellow Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science (Tokyo) Latest publications: Editor English Issue: Prof. Zhang Guangrui China s Tourism Development COTRI ebook Editor: China Outbound Market Intelligence COTRI Online Quarterly 4
Aim and structure of the COT Index The China Outbound Tourism Index (COT Index) aims to provide a simple but clear indicator for the analysis and forecast of the development of China s outbound tourism. The COT Index is based on the insights of the members of the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Expert Panel (COTEP). COTEP members are drawn from leading experts on China s tourism development from within the global tourism industry, regional, national and international organisations and institutions which also include academic, commercial and media researchers. COTEP members are based both inside and outside of China. The chosen way of generating the COT Index is to use the wisdom of the crowd, in this case a crowd made up of many of the most experienced experts in the field who are members of the COTEP. 5
Aim and structure of the COT Index For the COT Index every month COTEP members provide their assessment of the overall development of China s outbound tourism for the year ahead and the year just gone. They are asked to take into account the development of the number of Chinese outbound travellers, the amount spent by Chinese outbound travellers, the level of support by the governments both in China and at destinations and the level of commitment of tourism companies and organisations in China and at their destinations. The numerical assessment is done in the form of single entries for the previous and the forthcoming year on a Likert scale ranging between Minus 10 and Plus 10, Minus 10 representing an extremely negative development and Plus 10 representing an extremely positive development. From all submitted assessments the mean is calculated. 6
I C.O.M.I. October 2013 Graph 6 : China Outbound Tourism Index Barometer for development in the past twelve months October 2012 September 2013. 7
I C.O.M.I. October 2013 Graph 13 : China Outbound Tourism Index Barometer for development in the period October 2013 September 2014 8
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