RESEARCH 212 CENTRAL LONDON Quarterly Offices Highlights Take-up remained below the long-term average in the third quarter, with 2.1 m sq ft of transactions completed. However, the technology, media and telecoms sector once again dominated the demand profile through searches across Central London and is likely to drive take-up into the next quarter. Availability fell to 16.3 m sq ft, reflecting a vacancy rate of 7.1%. The availability of second-hand space is at one of its lowest levels since mid-28, however a number of speculative schemes are due to enter the supply figures in 213. Investor demand for Central London commercial real estate remained strong with 3.1 bn transacted in the third quarter. This takes the total for the year to 1 bn, already 11% above the total for 211. Overseas investors remained focused on prime Central London offices.
212 CENTRAL LONDON Quarterly Central London Overview Take-up remained low at 2.1 m sq ft, 27% below the long-term average. Availability fell to 16.3 m sq ft, reflecting a 7.1% vacancy rate. Speculative construction fell to 5.4 m sq ft, 8% below the previous quarter. Investment turnover totalled 3.1 bn. Figure 1 Central London take-up by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Q4 211 Demand and take-up Leasing activity across Central London remained muted in the third quarter, as the market continued to work through the uncertainty over the strength of the economy and the future of the Eurozone at the beginning of the year. Total take-up was just 2.1 m sq ft, 27% below the long-term average. While the news that the UK economy grew in the third quarter is welcome, the effects are unlikely to be seen across Central London until the first quarter of 213 as the market tends to lag movement in the wider economy by 6 months. Although take-up was disappointing, there was a noticeable improvement in sentiment Q1 Q2 212 West End City Docklands across all markets over the summer. In both the City and West End the technology, media and telecoms sector remained particularly acquisitive. Google is expected to complete the forward purchase at King s Cross Central during the final quarter, which will provide up to 7, sq ft of space. It has also been reported that Amazon has launched a large requirement in the order of 3, sq ft+. We expect the TMT sector to continue to drive market activity over the next 12 months. Supply & development Availability continued to fall across all markets for the second consecutive quarter and now totals 16.3 m sq ft, almost 2% below the long-term average. This reflects a vacancy rate of 7.1%. The supply of new and refurbished space is particularly low with just 4.8 m sq ft available to lease well below the 7.8 m sq ft on the market at the same point in 29. However, we expect availability to level out for the next 12 months as the new space being delivered balances out the falling levels of available secondhand space. Much of the speculative development that commenced during 211 will enter the availability figures from next quarter. There is currently 5.4 m sq ft under construction, 3. m sq ft of which is due to complete during 213. This represents an opportunity for occupiers to secure new, quality space in advance of the rental growth that is expected from next year as the global economy strengthens. Investment Investment turnover totalled 3.1 bn in the third quarter, lower than the 3.9 bn transacted in the previous quarter but still 17% higher than the long-term average. Domestic investors accounted for around 38% of all transactions, with Hines / HSBC Alternative Investments behind the largest purchase of the quarter; the acquisition of Broadgate West I & II for 289 m. As has been the case for some time, overseas investors continued to dominate the purchaser profile with demand from sovereign wealth funds concentrated on large trophy assets in both the City and West End. Demand from domestic investors was largely concentrated on smaller assets, with UK purchasers accounting for almost 6% of sub- 5 m transactions. The gap between Central London prime yields and government 1-year bonds remains wide enough for real estate in the capital to remain a competitive safe-haven investment. Figure 2 Central London availability by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 2, 15, 1, 5, Figure 3 Central London net investment 212 ( m s) 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1, Sovereign Wealth Q4 211 Pensions/Life/Insurance Private Investor Corporate/Other Unit Fund Q1 Charities/Foundation /Institution Opportunity/Private Equity Fund Q2 212 West End City Docklands Quoted Property Company Open/Closed-Ended Fund Private Property Company 2
KnightFrank.com West End Take-up remained unchanged at.7 m sq ft. Availability fell by 7% to 4.9 m sq ft. Prime headline rents remained at 95. per sq ft in the Core. Investment turnover totalled 1.1 bn. Figure 1 West End take-up by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 1,5 1,25 1, 75 5 25 Q4 Q1 Q2 211 212 Mayfair/ St James s Paddington/ Kensington Demand & take-up Take-up in the West End remained unchanged at.7 m sq ft, although this is 45% below the level recorded at the same quarter last year. The economic uncertainty has resulted in low levels of occupier activity, but with over 1. m sq ft under offer, we expect take-up to pick up towards the end of the year. There were eight deals over 2, sq ft, double the number recorded in Q2, with the largest deal at Oxford House, 76 Oxford Street, W1 in which Publicis took a short-term lease totalling 44,412 sq ft. The volume of active identified searches has increased by 12% to 2.5 m sq ft in 212, the highest level recorded since Q4 27. There are nearly 4 active requirements in the West End over 2, sq ft compared to 21 at the same time last year. Soho/North of Oxford Street Strand/ Covent Garden Victoria Bloomsbury Supply & Development Availability fell for the third consecutive quarter to 4.9 m sq ft, the lowest level since Q2 28 and 32% below the long-term average. The vacancy rate in the West End is now 5.3%, compared to 5.9% for the same quarter last year. Levels of available new & refurbished space are now 43% below the long-term average. The volume of space under construction speculatively is currently at 1.6 m sq ft up marginally from 1.5 m sq ft recorded in Q2 212. There is nothing currently under construction that will complete during 214. With availability continuing to fall and a number of significant pre-completion lettings taking place the supply of good quality stock will continue to decline. Rental Profile The prime headline rent remained at 95. per sq ft in the Core, with rent free periods at 18 months on a 1-year term. The very limited stock of prime units is attracting steady interest. The highest rent achieved this quarter was at 3 Burlington Gardens, W1 in which 15. per sq ft was achieved on a 1-year term. Investment Turnover in the third quarter totalled just under 1.1bn, 23% below the previous quarter but 18% above the long-term average of.9bn. This quarter saw two significant high profile transactions in the West End with the sale of 6 Sloane Avenue, SW3 for 129 m to CapInvest, reflecting a net initial yield (NIY) of 4.74% and 23 Savile Row, W1 sold to Quantum Global for 218 m with a NIY of 4.23%. A third of all West End acquisitions in the last year have been purchased with aspirations of conversion to residential. Overseas investors continued to dominate the market accounting for 64% of all purchases by value. Exceptional demand for freehold assets in the core coupled with continuing low levels of availability continues to sustain prime yields at 4.%. Figure 2 West End availability by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Q4 Q1 Q2 211 212 Mayfair/ St James s Paddington/ Kensington Private Investor Sovereign Wealth Soho/North of Oxford Street Strand/ Covent Garden Private Property Company Pension/Life/Insurance Corporate/Other Unit Fund Quoted Property Company Charities/Foundation/ Institution Open-ended/ Closed-ended fund 263 m 218 m 158 m 128 m 15 m 57 m 37 m 35 m 18 m Victoria Bloomsbury Figure 3 West End investment by purchaser 212 3
212 CENTRAL LONDON Quarterly City Take-up at 1.3 m sq ft was consistent with recent quarters. Vacancy rate currently 8.5%, versus a long-term average of 1.2%. Prime headline rents unchanged at 55. per sq ft. Investment turnover was 2. bn, double the level of 211. Figure 1 City take-up by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 2, 1,5 1, 5 Q4 Q1 Q2 211 212 Demand and take-up Core Fringe Holborn/ Fleet Street City take-up was 1.3 m sq ft in, which is consistent with the level of demand we have seen in the last 18 months. While take-up is below average, it has not deteriorated to the kind of levels seen in late 28 / early 29, suggesting a soft patch for demand not a serious downturn. The technology, media and telecoms (TMT) sector remains a bright spot. Take-up from TMT firms for Q1 to reached 93, sq ft, a 39% increase on the same period of 211. Major deals of the quarter include insurer, RJ Kiln, acquiring 78, sq ft at the under construction 2 Fenchurch Street, EC3, and Nationwide Building Society taking 54, sq ft at 1 Threadneedle Street, EC2. We expect more insurance sector deals to transact in the coming months, with Miller under offer at 7 Mark Lane, EC3 (81, sq ft). There is also anecdotal evidence of more activity by the fund management industry, such as M&G s deal at Watermark Place (35, sq ft). Supply & development Availability in the City continued to decline in, falling to 9.9 m sq ft, compared to 1.1 m sq ft in the previous quarter. This takes the vacancy rate to 8.5%, which is well below the long-term average of 1.2%. Of the submarkets, the Holborn / Fleet Street area has the most constrained level of supply, with the vacancy rate of 4.4% its lowest level since 21. There is currently 3.5 m sq ft of speculative space under construction, down from 4. m sq ft in Q2. The pipeline completing over the next six months is mostly refurbishments, which account for 85% of the space coming through. Rents Prime headline rents remained unchanged at 55. per sq ft for a typical grade A 1, sq ft floor plate. However, smaller high quality floor plates near the Bank of England are achieving rents above this level. Investment The City investment transaction volume in was just over 2. bn, compared to 2.5 bn in Q2 212, but well in excess of the same point in 211. With turnover already at over 6 bn so far for 212, despite the Jubilee and The Olympics, this year is set to exceed the already impressive turnover for 211 This is further evidence that the City continues to benefit from strong overseas buyer interest, which accounted for 61% of transactions by value. Foreign buyers have now accounted for 73% of purchases this year. The largest deal of the quarter was the purchase of Broadgate West I & II by Hines and HSBC Alternative Investments for 289 m, reflecting a net initial yield (NIY) of 6.7%. Also, Peterborough Court, which is let to Golman Sachs, sold for 281 m to Qinvest, reflecting a NIY of 6.2%. An example of a prime deal is Korea Life buying 1 Wood Street for 136 m, reflecting a NIY of 5.2%. Going forward, we expect to see examples of sub 5.25% yields being paid for those assets that precisely match the requirements of overseas investors seeking best in class prime stock offering long, secure income streams. Figure 2 City availability by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 3 City investment by purchaser 212 Pension/Life/Insurance Sovereign Wealth Private Investor Corporate/Other Private Property Company Unit Fund Q4 Q1 Q2 211 212 Opportunity Fund Quoted Property Company Charities/Foundation/ Institution 656 m 58 m 357 m 237 m 148 m 66 m 4 m 23 m 8 m Core Fringe Holborn/ Fleet Street 4
KnightFrank.com Docklands Take-up for increased to 169, sq ft. Availability stood at 1.5 m sq ft. Prime headline rents remained steady at 36. per sq ft. More investment stock is marketed. Figure 1 Docklands take-up by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Q4 Q1 Q2 211 212 Canary Wharf Demand & take-up Rest of Docklands Docklands take-up more than doubled off of low levels, rising from 78, sq ft in Q2 to 169, sq ft in. However, the vast majority of activity was accounted for by the Financial Ombudsman Service s acquisition of 16, sq ft at 1 & 2 Harbour Exchange Square. Also, Padero Consulting took 3,6 sq ft at 4 Bank Street on the 19th floor. At Canary Wharf, a new technology firms incubator is to be established on the 39th floor of One Canada Square, the flagship tower on the estate. Branded Level39, it will open early next year and target tech firms serving the financial sector. The move should help Canary Wharf increase its exposure to the rise of the East London Tech City. Supply & Development Availability was 1.5 m sq ft, and has been around this level for two years now. It is widely assumed that the investment banks in Docklands are holding grey space offmarket, although there is no way of knowing how much, or the banks long-term intentions for the space. The vacancy rate is currently 7.2%, which is in line with the central London figure of 7.1%. The 54, sq ft 25 Churchill Place remains the only scheme under construction of which around 22, sq ft is pre-let to EMA. It is scheduled to complete in 213. Rental Profile Prime rents remained unchanged at 36. per sq ft, although there is a lack of transactional evidence to confirm this figure. We expect future transactions to reveal downwards pressure on rents and incentives. Investment The Docklands market saw no investment transactions in. This comes at a time when the volume of stock on the market is increasing. Evans Randall has brought 5 Canada Square to the market for an asking price of 575 m. This is a 515, sq ft building let to Credit Suisse for a further 15 years. Other new stock coming to the market includes 15 Westferry Circus, which is on sale for 129.5 m, reflecting a net initial yield of 6.%. Also, Thames Quay is for sale, which is an office complex where there is a proposed residential development that has yet to secure planning consent. Figure 2 Docklands availability by quarter & sub-market 211-212 ( s sq ft) 2, 1,5 1, Figure 3 Rest of Docklands prime rent 2-212 (Prime /sq ft) 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 Q4 Q1 Q2 211 212 Canary Wharf 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Rest of Docklands 12 5
212 CENTRAL LONDON Quarterly Key statistics Central London office market Availability 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 12 3 months 12 months (m sq ft) % change West End 5.39 4.92 5.3 5.28 4.87-7.7% -9.6% City 8.99 1.39 11.29 1.14 9.92-2.2% 1.3% Docklands 1.48 1.54 1.51 1.56 1.54 -.9% 4.2% Central London 15.86 16.85 18.1 16.98 16.33-3.8% 3.% Vacancy Rate 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 12 3 months 12 months (%) % change West End 5.9 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.3 n/a n/a City 7.7 8.9 9.6 8.6 8.5 n/a n/a Docklands 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.2 n/a n/a Central London 6.9 7.3 7.9 7.4 7.1 n/a n/a Take-up 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 12 3 months 12 months (m sq ft) % change West End 1.31 1.31.99.71.71 -.8% -45.8% City 1.51 1.51 1.3 1.6 1.26-2.8% -16.2% Docklands.35.13.16.8.17 114.9% -52.3% Central London 3.17 2.95 2.18 2.39 2.14-1.4% -32.4% Active Requirements 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 12 3 months 12 months (m sq ft) % change West End 1.25 1.72 2.3 2.23 2.4 7.8% 91.6% City 4.62 4.7 4.27 4.54 4. -12.1% -13.5% Docklands.22.22.22.24.15-38.3% -31.2% Unspecified Central London 1.5 1.89 1.83 2.1 2.2 4.8% 19.4% TOTAL Central London 7.14 7.9 8.36 9.11 8.75-4.% 22.5% Under Construction 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 12 3 months 12 months (m sq ft) % change West End 1.7 2.2 1.87 1.95 2.3 4.1% 19.6% City 3.8 4.25 5.9 5.81 5.4-7.1% 41.9% Docklands...53.53.53 n/a n/a Central London 5.5 6.26 7.49 8.28 7.95-4.% 44.6% Investment 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 12 3 months 12 months ( m) % change West End 958. 83.8 966.1 138.7 165.2-22.9% 11.2% City 147.9 1493.4 1565.7 2542.6 243. -19.6% 95.% Docklands. 13.6 447 n/a n/a Central London 25.9 231.8 2978.8 3923.3 318.2-2.8% 55.% Source: Knight Frank Research 6
KnightFrank.com The Central London office market NW1 W11 W2 W1 WC1 WC2 EC1 EC4 EC2 EC3 E1 E16 W8 SE1 W14 SW7 SW1 E14 SW3 The West End Mayfair/St James s Mayfair and St James s refers to the area bounded by Oxford Street, Regent Street and Park Lane in W1 and by Green Park, St James s Park and The Mall in SW1. Soho/North of Oxford Street Soho/North of Oxford Street refers to NW1, and W1 (excluding Mayfair). Victoria Victoria refers to SW1 (excluding St James s). Paddington/Kensington Paddington/Kensington refers to SW3, SW7, W2, W8, W11, W14. Bloomsbury Bloomsbury refers to the area of WC1 bounded by Southampton Row, New Oxford Street, Tottenham Court Road and Euston Road. Strand/Covent Garden Strand/Covent Garden refers to the area of WC2 bounded by Kingsway, Aldwych, Victoria Embankment, Charing Cross Road and New Oxford Street. The City Core Core refers to EC2 (excluding EC2A), EC3, EC4 (excluding EC4A and EC4Y), and EC1A. Fringe Fringe refers to SE1, E1, EC1 (excluding EC1A and EC1N), and EC2A. Holborn/Fleet Street Holborn/Fleet Street refers to EC1N, EC4A, EC4Y, WC1 (excluding Bloomsbury), and WC2 (excluding Strand/Covent Garden). Docklands Canary Wharf Canary Wharf refers to the area comprising Canary Riverside, Westferry Circus, Columbus Courtyard, Cabot Square, Canada Square, Blackwall Place and Heron Quays (East). Rest of Docklands Rest of Docklands refers to E14 and E16 including The Royals Business Park (excluding Canary Wharf). 7
RESEARCH Americas USA Bermuda Brazil Canada Caribbean Chile Australasia Australia New Zealand Europe UK Belgium Czech Republic France Germany Hungary Ireland Italy Monaco Poland Portugal Romania Russia Spain The Netherlands Ukrai ne Africa Botswana Kenya Malawi Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Asia Cambodia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Macau Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam The Gulf Bahrain Abu Dhabi, UAE Commercial Research James Roberts, Partner Head of Commercial Research +44 () 2 7629 8171 james.roberts@knightfrank.com John Snow, Partner Head of Central London Offices +44 () 2 7629 8171 john.snow@knightfrank.com Patrick Scanlon, Partner Central London Research +44 () 2 7629 8171 patrick.scanlon@knightfrank.com Hayley Blackwell, Senior Analyst Central London Research +44 () 2 7629 8171 hayley.blackwell@knightfrank.com Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at KnightFrank.com Knight Frank LLP 212 This report is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight Frank Research or Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank Research. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC35934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members names. General Note This report has been prepared by Knight Frank Research, the research and consultancy division of Knight Frank. Knight Frank Research gratefully acknowledges the assistance given by the West End, City and Docklands Offices in the compilation and presentation of this material. Certain data sourced from LOD. All graph data sourced by Knight Frank. Technical Note The following criteria have been adopted in the preparation of this report. i. All floorspace figures quoted in this report refer to sq ft net. ii. Take-up figures refer to space let, pre-let, or acquired for occupation during the quarter. iii. Availability refers to all space available for immediate occupation, plus space still under construction which will be completed within six months and which has not been let. iv. Availability and take-up are classified into three grades: New/refurbished: Space under construction which is due for completion within six months or space which is currently on the market and is either new or completely refurbished. Second-hand A Grade: Previously occupied space with air-conditioning. Second-hand B Grade: Previously occupied space without air-conditioning. v. Demand figures quoted in this report refer to named requirements for over 1, sq ft. vi. Under construction figures quoted in this report refer to developments of over 2, sq ft which are currently underway. They do not include properties undergoing demolition. vii. Investment figures quoted in this report refer to accommodation where the majority of income/potential income is from office usage and comprises transactions of 1 m and above. The data includes standing investments, site purchases and funding transactions. viii. This report is produced to standard quarters. Quarter 1: January 1 March 31, Quarter 2: April 1 June 3, Quarter 3: July 1 September 3, Quarter 4: October 1 December 31