*Note: This data is preliminary and subject to change*

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Transcription:

*Note: This data is preliminary and subject to change* This product is an objective analysis of NWS Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) and Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) snowfall reports. CoCoRaHS data is from non-nws sources and may have not been fully quality controlled.

The map above shows snowfall totals as of Monday evening. Notice the stripe of 10+ inches across central MN into northern WI. Also, there is a very sharp cutoff on the southern edge of the heaviest snow. This was especially evident across the Twin Cities metro, where 10 fell across the northwest, and only 1-2 across the south (lower right map).

Snow Accumulation: o 10-14 from Madison MN to Willmar MN, St Cloud MN, Mora MN, to Rice Lake WI. o 1-3 from Cottonwood MN to Shakopee MN to Eau Claire WI Impacts: o Travel was the main impact. The Monday morning commute was very slow. o Conditions improved during the day except for those areas that received the heavy snow totals. Other: o The sharp cutoff in snow totals were the most challenging part of the forecast. INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME 16.50 CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0530 PM 16.50 ST AUGUSTA MN STEARNS 0302 PM 15.50 2 N NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0813 AM 15.00 4 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0859 PM 15.00 STARBUCK MN POPE 0337 PM 14.50 8 ESE PRINCETON MN ISANTI 1010 PM 13.80 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM 13.60 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM 13.50 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM MEASURED AT THE PRISON. 13.00 4 SSW WOLF CREEK MN CHISAGO 0840 AM OCCURRED OVER AMADOR TOWNSHIP. 13.00 ENE BRAHAM MN ISANTI 0720 AM 13.00 RICE MN BENTON 0938 PM 13.00 MILAN MN CHIPPEWA 0700 PM 13.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 1210 PM 12.50 1 SW LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0610 AM 12.50 7 NE MAPLE LAKE MN WRIGHT 0933 PM 12.50 NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0300 PM 12.50 5 NW MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0300 PM 12.00 8 ENE NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0600 PM 12.00 ST FRANCIS MN ANOKA 0401 PM 11.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0816 AM 11.30 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0620 PM 11.00 ANNANDALE MN WRIGHT 0630 PM 11.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0420 PM 11.00 3 N BECKER MN SHERBURNE 0403 PM 11.00 5 SW FOLEY MN BENTON 0310 PM 11.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0254 PM 11.00 ISANTI MN ISANTI 1235 PM 10.50 ST JOSEPH MN STEARNS 0542 PM 10.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0255 PM 10.50 1 ENE BRAHAM MN KANABEC 0120 PM 10.10 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0445 PM 10.00 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0325 PM 10.00 ANOKA MN ANOKA 0310 PM 10.00 5 NNE WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0230 PM 10.00 KINGSTON MN MEEKER 1258 PM 10.00 BENSON MN SWIFT 1225 PM 10.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1210 PM 10.00 4 SE OTSEGO MN WRIGHT 0745 AM

9.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 1100 AM 9.50 12 N BRUCE WI RUSK 0740 AM 9.40 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 0615 PM 9.40 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0355 PM 9.00 ANDOVER MN ANOKA 1047 AM 9.00 GRANITE FALLS MN YELLOW MEDICINE 0840 AM 9.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0813 AM 9.00 3 N ALEXANDRIA MN DOUGLAS 0525 PM 9.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0222 PM 9.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0217 PM 9.00 5 NE RUSH CITY MN PINE 0200 PM 8.50 WILLMAR MN KANDIYOHI 0430 PM 8.00 ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0456 PM 8.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0223 PM RELAYED BY NWS DULUTH. 8.00 LADYSMITH WI RUSK 1200 PM 8.00 5 SW FOLEY MN BENTON 1115 AM 7.80 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0215 PM 7.80 2 N SAUK CENTRE MN STEARNS 0214 PM 7.60 OTSEGO MN WRIGHT 0336 PM 7.50 BLAINE MN ANOKA 0700 AM 7.50 WAVERLY MN WRIGHT 0454 PM 7.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0848 PM LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF 0.36 INCHES. 7.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0258 PM 7.00 RICE LAKE WI BARRON 1230 PM 7.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 1210 PM 7.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1000 AM 7.0 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AT SAINT CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY AS OF 10 AM. 6.80 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0845 AM 6.70 COSMOS MN MEEKER 0330 PM 6.00 CIRCLE PINES MN ANOKA 0610 PM 6.00 COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0303 PM 6.00 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1045 AM 5.50 MAPLE PLAIN MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM 5.50 1 SW LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 1120 AM 5.40 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1200 PM MEASURED AT WQOW TV. 5.10 1 SSE FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0705 AM 5.10 5 NNE BIG LAKE MN SHERBURNE 0900 AM 5.00 ENE BRAHAM MN ISANTI 1000 AM 4.90 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM 4.50 MAPLE PLAIN MN HENNEPIN 1145 AM 4.40 2 ENE PLYMOUTH MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM 4.00 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0430 AM 4.00 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 1052 AM 3.80 WACONIA MN CARVER 1135 AM 3.60 EXCELSIOR MN HENNEPIN 0922 PM 3.60 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0100 PM 3.40 WSW LITTLE CANADA MN RAMSEY 0957 AM 3.30 MSP INTL AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 1200 PM 3.30 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 1100 AM 3.20 3 SW DOWNTOWN MINNEAPOL MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM 3.10 1 NNW NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0230 PM 3.00 1 ESE CHANHASSEN MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM 3.00 3 NE BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0600 AM 3.00 3 SW MSP INTL AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 0310 PM 3.00 8 NW MSP INTL AIRPORT MN HENNEPIN 1224 PM OCCURRED ON UPTON AVE APPROXIMATELY 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE HARRIET.

3.00 ROGERS MN HENNEPIN 0854 AM 2.80 1 NNE MAPLE GROVE MN HENNEPIN 0844 AM 2.70 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0543 PM 2.50 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0933 AM 2.20 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1200 PM MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE. 2.00 2 SSE EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0455 PM 2.00 1 S WHITE BEAR LAKE MN RAMSEY 0920 AM 1.80 3 ESE EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 0842 AM 0.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0839 AM A frontal boundary was the focus for the heavy snow. This front strengthened across central MN and northern WI, through a process called frontogenesis. When this happens, the energy of the atmosphere is released in the form of a narrow corridor of rising air, and produces a band of heavy snow. The band of heavy snow is shown in the following radar image. There was a strong signal in the forecast models that this type of feature would develop and produce over a foot of snow along a line in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The challenge was pinpointing that exact location of where this would occur. The image above shows the temperatures in the lower atmosphere on the morning of Monday November 10, 2014. The dashed white lines represent the temperature gradient, or change. The

arrows represent the wind, which was causing the temperature lines to move closer together. This led to a narrow corridor of rising air. Radar reflectivity from Monday morning. The green area shows heavy snow from Madison to Willmar, St Cloud, Mora, and Rice Lake. Meanwhile areas to the south had little if anything.