Vol. 23 No. 3 Transactions Increase While Values De crease in Pre-Owned Mar ket Carl Janssens, ASA Air craft Blue book Price Di gest There should be some optimism in our industry. Buyers and sell ers are fi nally com ing to terms with what the mar ket will bear for a given air craft. And with that, the pre-owned air craft mar ket is see ing more com pleted deals. The grid lock of avail able in ven tory is start ing to show some move ment. Val ues on the other hand re main soft with lit tle signs of re cov ery. Some of the fac tors that could be mak ing an in di rect im pact on val ues re late to fi nance. Ma jor lend ers are adapt ing to the 20-year rule. That is, the age of the air craft and term of the loan can not ex ceed 20 years. Prior to the eco nomic melt down, it was a 30-year rule. Of course, there are ex cep tions to ev ery rule, but this 20-year rule will con tinue to have a soft en ing ef fect on value in the pre-owned mar ket. An other fac tor that might have a driv ing ef fect is the in crease in cash buy ers. Cash is a hard snare to turn away from if you are sell - ing an air craft. In re turn, the cash buyer will de mand ex cep tional equip ment at a dis - counted price. To a lesser ex tent, air craft fore clo sures might have an im pact on the in dus try. Time and con di tion do ac count for val ues in the mar ket place. If an air craft is sold out side the box of rea son, then civil lit i ga tion will prob a - bly en sue. You, the mar ket it self, the live dy nam ics of what makes this whole pro cess hap pen, may have your own opin ion too. Let us know your thoughts. Jet Increased... 3 Decreased...595 Stable...281 Late-model, large-cabin air craft are re tain - ing value. The me dium-range busi ness jet, such as the Lear 45 se ries and the Hawker 800 se ries, con tin ues to show signs of nor mal de pre ci a tion. Ci ta tion X and the Sov er eign were off from last quar ter. Bom bar dier Global Ex press and the 5000 re mained steady while the Chal - lenger 604 de clined. The Fal con 7X held steady, but the Fal con 50 was down. Val ues for late-model Gulfstreams held steady, yet val ues for ear lier mod els were off. Tur bo prop Increased...25 Decreased...135 Stable...434 The ag mar ket still rules in this cat e gory be cause the very bou tique and lim ited mar - kets hold on to value. One sur prise this quar ter is the DeHavilland Twin Ot ter DHC-6. Lim ited in - ven to ries, great de mand and a new pro duc - tion line have brought a burst of life into the val ues of these air craft. Check the val ues in the new fall 2010 re lease of Air craft Blue book. Late-model King Airs were down slightly. 2010 FALL 1
Multi Increased...12 Decreased...26 Stable... 618 Time and con di tion will play the up per hand in this mar ket, es pe cially when deal ing with ag ing air craft. Any thing more than 20 years old in this mar ket is a se nior cit i zen. For the most part, val ues for this seg ment re - mained un moved when com pared to the previous quarter. Sin gle Increased...217 Decreased... Stable... 2078 As with their twin breth ren, time and con - di tion also have the up per hand in sup port - ing value. Do not just look at the sale price. Also pay close at ten tion to res to ra tions, up - grades and mod i fi ca tions. For the most part, the sin gle cat e gory was stable. He li cop ter Increased...57 Decreased...221 Stable... 761 He li cop ters are con tin u ing to show some signs of sta bi li za tion with the ma jor ity of this seg ment re main ing un changed in re - ported val ues when com pared to the previous quarter. Visit us at the 2010 NBAA An nual Meeting & Convention Air craft Blue book will be in booth No. 7626 at NBAA 2010 on Oct. 19-21. Air craft Blue book Price Di gest here for you Please con tact Air craft Blue book if you have any spe cific con cern in a par tic u lar air - craft mar ket. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date in for ma tion avail - able for your mar ket seg ment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or di rect at 913-967-1913. A prod uct of the AC-U-KWIK line of avi a tion re sources. 2010 Penton Busi ness Me dia, Inc. All Rights Re served. No part of this pub li ca tion may be re pro duced in any form or by any means with out per mis sion in writ ing from the pub lisher. Printed in the U.S.A. PUB LISHED FOUR TIMES YEARLY TO CO IN CIDE WITH SEA SONAL PRICE FLUC TU A TIONS. SPRING (end Feb.) SUM MER (end May) FALL (end Aug.) WIN TER (end Nov.) Bob Mac Ar thur Se nior Vice Pres i dent Tom Duncan Vice Pres i dent Frank Cra ven Group Pub lisher Paul Wyatt Ed i tor-in-chief Carl Janssens, ASA Ed i tor Chris Reynolds An a lyst and As so ci ate Ed i tor Jennifer Shafer-Doyle Sales Rep re sen ta tive Su san Kohlmeyer Sales Agent Jennifer Knight Art Di rec tor Terri Can non Cus tomer Ser vice Man ager Dylan Goodwin Group Pro duc tion Man ager Julie Jantzer-Ward Pro duc tion Man ager Justin Marciniak Se nior Pro duc tion Ed i tor Adriane Rob erts Pro duc tion Ed i tor Brandy Fer gu son Pro duc tion De sign Ed i tor P.O. BOX 12901, OVER LAND PARK, KS 66282-2901 PHONE 800-654-6776 913-967-1719 FAX 800-633-6219 913-967-1901 2 MARKETLINE
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USED AIRCRAFT MARKET VALUE Percent 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 99.69 111.84 109.53 95 90 85 80 75 70 120 115 110 105 100 71.00 Used Air craft Mar ket. This chart dis plays each model s quar terly value in re la tion ship to its av er age equipped price at the in cep tion of the air craft. The study be gins in the Spring quar ter of 1994 and in cludes the Jet, Tur bo prop, Multi, Pis ton and He li cop ter. For all charts, the red num ber in di cates the first re port ing date af ter 9-11. JET 10500 10151.7 10500 9500 8455.0 8962.5 9500 8500 8500 7500 7500 6500 6500 5500 4500 3500 5500 4500 1990 Model % Change Hawker 800 ( ) 9.7% Cessna Citation II ( ) 9.7% Dassault Falcon 50 IAI Astra 1125SP ( ) 14.3% 0.0% 3500 Lear 31 0.0% Gulfstream G-IV ( ) 8.1% 3691.7 Jet. The jet chart de picts the av er age price (in thou sands) of the six 1990 jets listed in the box. 4 MARKETLINE
TURBOPROP Thousands 1600 1550 1500 1450 1 1350 1 1250 1 1150 1100 1050 1498.3 1466.7 1333.3 Model % Change 1990 Beech B King Air ( ) 3.6% 1990 Beech C90A ( ) 10.0% 1986 Cessna 441 Conquest 0.0% 1985 Mitsubishi MU-2 Marquis 0.0% 1990 Piper Cheyenne III 0.0% 1990 Cessna 208 Caravan 0.0% 1600 1550 1500 1450 1 1350 1 1250 1 1150 1100 1050 1016.7 Tur bo prop. The tur bo prop chart de picts the av er age price (in thou sands) of a 1985, 1986 and four 1990 tur bo props listed in the box. MULTI Thousands 425 375 350 325 275 250 225 342.3 397.3 386.5 Model % Change 1986 Beech 58P Pressurized Baron 0.0% 1990 Beech 58 Baron 0.0% 1985 Cessna 421 Eagle III (+) 1.2% 1981 Cessna 310 0.0% 1982 Piper PA-31-310C Navajo 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-34-220T Seneca III 0.0% 325 275 250 225 425 375 350 267.5 Multi. The multi chart de picts the av er age price (in thou sands) of the six multi mod els listed in the box. Each model s year will pre cede the name of the air craft. 2010 FALL 5
Thousands 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 134.8 PISTON 164.2 161.4 Model % Change 1990 Beech A36 Bonanza 0.0% 1990 Beech F33 Bonanza 0.0% 1986 Cessna 210 Centurian II (+) 2.6% 1986 Cessna 172P Skyhawk B 0.0% 1985 Cessna 152 Commuter II 0.0% 1990 Mooney 252TSE 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28-236 Dakota 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28R-201 Arrow 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28-181 Archer II 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28-161 Warrior II 0.0% 140 130 120 110 100 190 180 170 160 150 115.5 Pis ton. The pis ton chart de picts the av er age price (in thou sands) of the 10 pis tons listed in the box. Each model s year will pre cede the name of the air - craft. HELICOPTER Thousands 450 425 375 350 325 275 250 312.6 349.1 345.8 Model % Change 1990 Eurocopter AS350B Ecureuil 0.0% 1990 Bell 206B III 0.0% 1990 Enstrom 280FX 0.0% 1982 Hiller FH1100 0.0% 1990 McDonnell Douglas MD 500E 0.0% 1990 Robinson R22 0.0% 350 325 275 250 450 425 375 346.0 He li cop ter. The he li cop ter chart de picts the av er age price (in thou sands) of the six he li cop ters listed in the box. Each model s year will pre cede the name of the aircraft. 6 MARKETLINE
NASDAQ 5000 4500 0 3500 0 2500 0 1500 500 0 603.7 743.4 1101.4 4572.8 1498.80 5000 4500 0 3500 0 2500 0 1500 500 0 4123412 92 93 2109.2 NASDAQ: This ra tio scale chart de picts the change for the NASDAQ daily av er age from quar ter to quar ter be gin ning at the end of the first quar ter of 1992. Each data point rep re sents the clos ing daily av er age on the last trad ing day of each quar ter. This study orig i nates in the first quar ter of 1971. 05 06 07 08 09 10 U.S. Real Gross Do mes tic Prod uct: This graph rep re sents real gross do mes tic prod uct mea sured by the U.S. Bu reau of Eco nomic Analysis. Each data point rep re sents the BEA s fi nal fig ure or lat est es ti mate of the quar ter-to-quar ter sea son ally ad justed an nual rates of change in real GDP based on chained 5 dollars. The study be gins with the sec ond quar ter in 5. 2010 FALL 7
AIRCRAFT ON REGISTRY March '89 June '10 4,558 6,080 26,968 8,288 11,015 10,072 21,201 13,739 187,662 199,448 50,000 100,000 150,000,000 250,000 Jet Turboprop Multi Single Helicopter Air craft on Reg is try. The Air craft on Reg is try chart de picts the number of air craft re ported in Air craft Blue book which are listed on FAA rec ords and con sid ered to be in the U.S. in ven tory. Thousands 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CHANGE OF STATUS SINGLE MULTI Single: 4,273 Multi: 377 1234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sin gle/multi. The blue line in the Sin gle Multi chart de picts change- of- ownership data for sin gles. The black line rep re sents mul tis. 8 MARKETLINE
CHANGE OF STATUS JET TURBOPROP HELI 1 1100 900 800 700 600 500 Jet: 630 Turboprop: 348 Heli: 336 1234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Jet/Tur bo prop/heli. The black line in the Jet Tur bo prop Heli chart rep re sents change- of- ownership in for ma tion for jets. The blue line de picts tur - bo props, while the gray line rep re sents heli cop ters. 12 CHANGE OF STATUS TOTAL MARKET 10 10,152 7,124 7,736 8,455 8 6 6,795 6,882 5,964 4 1234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 To tal Mar ket. De picts change- of- ownership data for all air craft in cluded in the Air craft Blue book. The num bers are from the FAA Reg is try. Glid ers, home builts, air lin ers and other air craft not found in the Blue book are not in cluded in this study. 2010 FALL 9