Report on provision of Unpaid Care Argyll and Bute

Report on provision of Unpaid Care Argyll and Bute 18 th November 2016 Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership Public Health Information Contents Introduction... 2 Estimate of number of adult (16+) providing unpaid carer... 3 Estimates of numbers of young carers (under 16)... 7 General Health of carers providing 35+ hours of care (census 2011)... 9 Appendix - Estimated numbers of unpaid carers by age and gender... 10 Page 1

Introduction Support for unpaid carers is a priority for the new Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership, as highlighted by the area of focus in the strategic plan to: Support unpaid carers, to reduce the impact of their caring role on their own health and wellbeing This document provides information on the number of unpaid carers in Argyll & Bute using two different methods; 1) Self-reported unpaid care in the 2011 census 1 2) Estimates of numbers of unpaid carers using the results of the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) applied to the population of Argyll & Bute 2. People who provided unpaid care sometimes do not identify themselves as carers. Therefore, the number of people who report providing unpaid care in the 2011 census is likely to underestimate the number of unpaid carers. It is most accurate for people who have substantive caring responsibilities (taken to be 35 hours of more a week). The Scottish Health Survey is generated from interviews with a sample of the Scottish population. It produces higher estimates of the number of unpaid carers, probably because questions around unpaid care follow from questions about the health and family of household members. In this document, these estimates are applied to the population size of Argyll & Bute 2 to provide an estimate of the numbers of unpaid carers living in local areas of Argyll & Bute. Data sources can be found as follows: Census 2011: http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ Scottish Health Survey results on unpaid care: http://www.gov.scot/publications/2015/03/1081 NRS Mid-Year Population Estimates: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/ 1 Census data were obtained using a best-fit of 2011 datazones to locality areas. Note that National Records of Scotland swap some values between different geographic areas in order to protect against disclosure of personal information. 2 Using 2011 and 2015 Mid-year population estimates from National Records of Scotland, based on a best-fit of 2011 datazones to the locality area. Page 2

Estimate of number of adult (16+) providing unpaid carer The number of people (16+) who reported that they provide unpaid care, in the census (2011), is shown below along with the total census population aged 16+. A total of 8655 people aged 16+ in Argyll and Bute reported providing unpaid care. Table 1. The number of people who reported providing unpaid care in Census 2011, by area and number of hours care provided Census Population (aged 16+) Number of people (16+) reporting providing unpaid care Any hours under 35 hours 35+ hours Bute 5566 691 443 248 Cowal 12684 1657 1076 581 Helensburgh & Lomond 21320 2514 1759 755 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 3004 334 239 95 Kintyre 6607 797 524 273 Mid Argyll 7980 926 677 249 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 3223 369 253 116 Oban and Lorn 13347 1367 955 412 Total 73731 8655 5926 2729 Source: Census 2011. Crown copyright. Data provided by National records of Scotland. Using Scottish Health Survey estimates that 17% of the population provide unpaid care (13% for under 35 hours, 3% for 35+ hours and 1% for a variable time), and the mid-year population estimates from National Records of Scotland (2011), it can be estimated that 12,677 people aged 16+ provided unpaid care in Argyll and Bute (Table 2). This is over 4000 people more than the number who self-reported providing unpaid care in the census. Table 3 shows the difference between the census figures (Table 1) and the estimates derived from the results of the Scottish Health Survey (Table 2). The overall number of people who are estimated to provide unpaid care is higher than the total number who report providing unpaid care in the census. However, the number who report providing 35+ hours a week of unpaid care is higher in the census. This may be because the Scottish Health Survey estimates were derived from Scotland as a whole and do not take into account the age-gender of the population in Argyll and Bute, particularly the higher proportion of older people. The number of people who self-report providing less than 35 hours of unpaid care a week is considerably lower in the census, than in the estimated figures. This is likely to be due to people under reporting provision of unpaid care. Page 3

Table 2. The number of people who are estimated to provide unpaid care, by area and number of hours care provided Population aged 16+ Number (16+) estimated to be providing unpaid care Any under 35 35+ Variable hours hours hours hours Bute 5570 947 724 167 56 Cowal 12712 2161 1653 381 127 Helensburgh and Lomond 22085 3754 2871 663 221 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 2982 507 388 89 30 Kintyre 6618 1125 860 199 66 Mid Argyll 7974 1356 1037 239 80 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 3249 552 422 97 32 Oban and Lorn 13380 2275 1739 401 134 Argyll and Bute 74570 12677 9694 2237 746 Source: Derived using data published by National Records of Scotland (2011 Mid-year population estimates, Crown copyright) and Scottish Health Survey (Scottish Government, Crown copyright). Table 3. The number of people who self-report providing unpaid care minus the number estimates to provide unpaid care, by area and number of hours care provided/ Red (negative) numbers indicate where the estimated numbers are higher than the census numbers. Black (positive) numbers indicate where the census numbers are higher than the estimated numbers. Difference in Population aged 16+ Different in number providing unpaid care under 35 Any hours hours 35+ hours Bute -4-256 -281 81 Cowal -28-504 -577 200 Helensburgh & Lomond -765* -1,240-1,112 92 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 22-173 -149 6 Kintyre -11-328 -336 74 Mid Argyll 6-430 -360 10 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree -26-183 -169 19 Oban and Lorn -33-908 -784 11 Total -839-4,022-3,768 492 *Note that the difference in population size between census and mid-year estimates is due to the way the military population is accounted for in the different data sources. Page 4

In the Scottish Health Survey results, estimates of the number of carers are also given by age and gender (Table 4). The rates in Table 4 were applied to the 2011 mid-year estimates to provide another estimate of the number of unpaid carers, shown in Table 5 (final column). The estimated number of unpaid carers using age-gender specific rates is 13,872, and is more than 17% of the population. This is because the age-gender structure of the population of Argyll and Bute is different from that of Scotland as a whole. Detailed results by age and gender are shown in the appendix. Table 4. Estimated percentage of unpaid carers, by age and gender Age Band Female Male 16-24 12% 8% 25-34 11% 9% 35-44 21% 12% 45-54 27% 19% 55-64 32% 23% 65+ 18% 18% Source: Scottish Health Survey. Crown Copyright. The Scottish Government. http://www.gov.scot/publications/2015/03/1081 Table 5. Comparison of self-reported (census) and estimated numbers of unpaid carers in Argyll and Bute (using 2011 population estimates). Self-reported in 2011 census Estimated using 17% of population estimates Estimated using age-gender rates (Table 4) and population estimates Bute 691 947 1062 Cowal 1657 2161 2422 Helensburgh and Lomond 2514 3754 3974 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 334 507 566 Kintyre 797 1125 1242 Mid Argyll 926 1356 1510 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 369 552 625 Oban and Lorn 1367 2275 2471 Argyll and Bute 8655 12677 13873 Source: Census 2001 and estimates derived from 2011 mid-year estimates (National Records of Scotland) and the results of the Scottish Health Survey. Page 5

As the population has changed since 2011, Table 6 shows updated estimates using 2015 mid-year population estimates. The population aged 16+ in Argyll and Bute has reduced since 2011 (from 74,570 to 73,598). Therefore, the estimates based on a percentage of the total population have reduced. The exception to this is in Oban and Lorn and in Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree where the population has increased and the estimate based on 17% of the population has therefore also increased. Using the age-gender specific rates, the changing age of the population leads to a higher estimate of the number of unpaid carer in all areas. This is higher both than the estimate based on 17% of the population 16+ (Table 6) and higher than the estimates using age-gender specific rates and the 2011 population estimates, including in those areas with a decrease in the total number of people (compare final columns of tables 5 and 6). Table 6. Estimated numbers of unpaid carers in Argyll and Bute using 2015 population estimates. Population aged 16+ Number (16+) estimated to be providing unpaid care Any hours (17%) under 35 hours (13%) 35+ hours (3%) Variable hours (1%) Agegender estimate Bute 5301 901 689 159 53 1081 Cowal 12334 2097 1603 370 123 2477 Helensburgh and Lomond 21809 3708 2835 654 218 4075 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 2899 493 377 87 29 582 Kintyre 6472 1100 841 194 65 1256 Mid Argyll 7872 1338 1023 236 79 1544 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 3264 555 424 98 33 643 Oban and Lorn 13647 2320 1774 409 136 2544 Argyll and Bute 73598 12512 9568 2208 736 14203 Source: Estimates derived from 2015 mid-year estimates (National Records of Scotland) and the results of the Scottish Health Survey. Page 6

Estimates of numbers of young carers (under 16) 166 young people from Argyll & Bute reported providing unpaid care in the 2011 census. Most of these provided less than 35 hours of care a week (Table 7). However, the results of the Scottish Health Survey are that 4% of people aged 0-15 provide unpaid care and that 77% of these provide up to 20 hours, 10% 20 to 34 hours and 13% 35 hours or more a week. Tables 8 and 9 show the result of applying these estimates to the mid-year population estimates from National Records of Scotland (for 2011 and 2015, respectively). These results suggest that over 500 children may provide unpaid care in Argyll and Bute. The total estimated number of unpaid carers under 16 is lower using the 2015 population estimates (Table 9) than 2011 population estimates (Table 8) because the estimated number of children has decreased. The exception to this is in Oban and Lorn and in Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree where the estimated number of children has increased. Table 7. Number of people aged 0-15 recorded as providing unpaid care in the 2011 census, by area and number of hours care. Number of people age 0-15 Provision of unpaid care Under 35 Any hours hours 35+ hours Bute 932 19 18 1 Cowal 2324 28 27 1 Helensburgh & Lomond 4397 58 53 5 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 552 4 2 2 Kintyre 1296 13 12 1 Mid Argyll 1512 17 14 3 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 621 9 7 2 Oban and Lorn 2801 18 16 2 Argyll and Bute 14435 166 149 17 Source: Census 2011. Crown copyright. Data provided by National records of Scotland. Page 7

Table 8. Number of people aged 0-15 estimated to be providing unpaid care using the results of the Scottish Health Survey and 2011 mid-year population estimates. Number of people (age 0-15) None Provision of unpaid care Any <20 20-34 hours hours hours 35+ hours Bute 933 896 37 29 4 5 Cowal 2302 2276 26 20 3 3 Helensburgh and Lomond 4419 4242 177 136 18 23 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 518 497 21 16 2 3 Kintyre 1280 1229 51 39 5 7 Mid Argyll 1508 1448 60 46 6 8 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 623 598 25 19 2 3 Obana nd Lorn 2777 2666 111 86 11 14 Grand Total 14360 13786 574 442 57 75 Source: Derived using data published by National Records of Scotland (2011 Mid-year population estimates, Crown copyright) and Scottish Health Survey (Scottish Government, Crown copyright). Table 9. Number of people aged 0-15 estimated to be providing unpaid care using the results of the Scottish Health Survey and 2015 mid-year population estimates. Number of people (age 0-15) None Provision of unpaid care Any <20 20-34 hours hours hours 35+ hours Bute 794 762 32 24 3 4 Cowal 2062 2036 26 20 3 3 Helensburgh and Lomond 4125 3960 165 127 17 21 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 489 469 20 15 2 3 Kintyre 1173 1126 47 36 5 6 Mid Argyll 1415 1358 57 44 6 7 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 625 600 25 19 3 3 Oban and Lorn 2609 2505 104 80 10 14 Grand Total 13292 12760 532 409 53 69 Source: Derived using data published by National Records of Scotland (2015 Mid-year population estimates, Crown copyright) and Scottish Health Survey (Scottish Government, Crown copyright). Page 8

General Health of carers providing 35+ hours of care (census 2011) It is recognised that the health of an unpaid carer may deteriorate during their caring role. The 2011 census also asked people about their general health. The general health of unpaid carers is shown in Table 10, by age, for those providing 35+ hours of unpaid care. Note that this is based on all people living in households (not all people). 265 people with substantive caring responsibilities (35+ hours a week) reported that their own health was bad or very bad. The distribution of these people throughout the is shown in Table 11. Table 10. Number of people self-reported to be providing 35+ hours unpaid care a week by age and general health. Age band Very good or good health Fair health Bad or very bad health Total 0-24 77 7 5 89 25-49 625 125 45 795 50-64 573 223 103 899 65 + 485 340 112 937 Total 1760 695 265 2720 Source: Census 2011, people living in households. Crown copyright, National Records of Scotland. Table 11. Number of people self-reported to be providing 35+ hours unpaid care a week and to be in bad or very bad health, by age and area. Age Band HSCP Locality 0 to 24 25 to 49 50 to 64 65 + Total Bute 0 6 13 9 28 Cowal 2 15 20 41 78 Helensburgh and Lomond 3 10 29 27 69 Islay, Jura and Colonsay 0 1 3 0 4 Kintyre 0 3 13 12 28 Mid Argyll 0 3 7 6 16 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 0 2 3 5 10 Oban and Lorn 0 5 15 12 32 Grand Total 5 45 103 112 265 Source: Census 2011, people living in households. Crown copyright, National Records of Scotland. Page 9

Appendix - Estimated numbers of unpaid carers by age and gender All tables derived from Scottish Health Survey estimates shown in Table 4 and 2015 mid-year population estimates from National Records of Scotland. Bute 16-24 36 24 61 25-34 26 23 49 35-44 77 34 111 45-54 129 88 217 55-64 181 127 308 65+ 181 154 335 Total 631 450 1081 Cowal 16-24 71 54 126 25-34 68 53 120 35-44 182 91 273 45-54 311 198 509 55-64 406 280 686 65+ 415 348 763 Total 1453 1024 2477 Helensburgh and Lomond 16-24 142 159 302 25-34 129 147 276 35-44 365 207 572 45-54 540 382 923 55-64 596 409 1004 65+ 557 441 999 Total 2330 1745 4075 Page 10

All tables derived from Scottish Health Survey estimates shown in Table 4 and 2015 mid-year population estimates from National Records of Scotland. Islay, Jura and Colonsay 16-24 17 14 31 25-34 19 12 30 35-44 48 26 74 45-54 76 42 117 55-64 96 68 164 65+ 91 75 166 Total 346 236 582 Kintyre 16-24 41 32 74 25-34 34 28 61 35-44 101 57 158 45-54 157 106 263 55-64 202 132 334 65+ 202 165 367 Total 737 519 1256 Mid Argyll 16-24 46 32 78 25-34 44 38 82 35-44 139 72 212 45-54 206 147 353 55-64 245 167 412 65+ 218 190 408 Total 899 646 1544 Page 11

All tables derived from Scottish Health Survey estimates shown in Table 4 and 2015 mid-year population estimates from National Records of Scotland. Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 16-24 20 11 31 25-34 19 15 34 35-44 54 27 81 45-54 91 55 146 55-64 112 71 183 65+ 90 79 169 Total 385 258 643 Oban and Lorn 16-24 89 69 157 25-34 93 77 170 35-44 227 119 346 45-54 359 236 595 55-64 382 261 643 65+ 346 287 633 Total 1496 1048 2544 Argyll and Bute 16-24 462 395 858 25-34 431 394 825 35-44 1194 632 1827 45-54 1869 1254 3122 55-64 2220 1513 3733 65+ 2100 1738 3838 Total 8277 5926 14203 Page 12