SESAR Innovation Days Challenges and opportunities for innovation Xavier FRON EUROCONTROL Performance Coordinator 01/12/2015
Topics A bit of history What is the current situation? Why do we need to act? Key challenges and opportunities for innovation Final word 2
Some innovations in ATC Surveillance 30 s-40 s: Radar, identification (IFF) Accidents, safety requirements (Normandie liner, 1935) MIL requirements: WW II 70 s: Digitalisation, radar processing TCAS Technology opportunities (computers, signal processing) NAS, CAUTRA III in 70 s Developed in US after collision (Grand Canyon, 1956) Standardised in ICAO Mandated in US from 1/1/1993 after collision (San Diego, 1978) Central Flow Management Implemented in US after US controllers dismissal (1981) CFMU implemented (1995) following delay crisis at end of 80 s 3
ANS in the European aviation context (1/2) GDP from Air Transport in EU 121 B Source: ATAG Air Navigation Services 7.5 B Safety No accident with ANS contribution since 2011 Reported incidents in 0.3% of flights 6% of Airline operating costs (Europe) Source: AEA 6% of aviation related CO2 emissions (0.2% of total emissions) Air transport delay (2013) All 9 min. per flight ANS-related 1 min. per flight Although ANS is comparatively small in aviation context. 4
ANS in the European aviation context (2/2) but the stakes are still high! ANS generates. Value.. Aviation Safety Efficient flow of air traffic Environmental impact Emissions, noise Costs. Ground economic cost 10.5 B Direct ANS provision costs (user charges) Indirect service quality related costs Airborne ANS costs ( 2.5B p.a. for 10 years?) High penalties to economy if disrupted Daily loss of some 1.5B per day (volcano) Total User cost (ground) 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 ATCO Support costs Other staff Other operating CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 2.2 B 2.0 B 3.5 B 1.2 B Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) 5
Performance improvements Number of accidents 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ANS-related accidents and accidents with ANS contribution in Commercial Air Transport (CAT), (fixed-wing, weight > 2 250 kg) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fatal Non-Fatal No fatal ANS-related accidents since 2011 Accidents with ANS Contribution Source: EASA 2009 per kilometre 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 All States in Route Charges system 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 En-route unit costs ( 2009/km) Traffic in km (index: 1990=1) En-route delay (summer) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Minutes of en-route ATFM delay per flight and traffic index Source : EUROCONTROL/CRCO, NM (delay) KEP (Flight Plan) KEA (Actual route) Improvements in both unit costs and delays Further improvements driven by SES Flight-efficiency improving faster than traffic (carbon neutrality) European policies bring improvements in 3 KPAs while maintaining safety at acceptable levels 6
How does European ANS system compare? Acceptable Safety levels on both sides of Atlantic Similar environmental impact Similar Punctuality High unit costs 90% 88% 86% On-time performance compared to schedule Europe (flights to or from the 34 main airports) 90% 88% 86% US (CONUS) 600 500 +100% +50% 84% 82% 84% 82% 400 80% 78% 76% 80% 78% 76% 300 200 74% 72% 70% Source: CODA; PRC analysis 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 74% 72% 70% Source: ASPM data 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 100 0 Departures (<=15min.) Arrivals (<=15min.) Increasing focus on economic efficiency (SES) 2011 ATM/CNS provision costs ( /flight hour) 7
Why do we need to act? Performance is improving But major challenges remain in ANS Opaqueness in Safety Risk measure, safety built in new concepts Environmental impact of aviation Emissions, noise Politically sensitive, at EU, national and local levels High ANS costs Poor productivity of a labour intensive industry Rigid service provision Fragmentation of airspace, service provision, infrastructure Organisational/governance issues Monopolies, little competition, weaknesses in oversight Human resource and social issues Airspace users bear all ANS costs, have little say Complex decision making and new challenges are emerging Volatile economy, air traffic demand High demand for R/F spectrum Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS) 8
Flights in Europe (Million) Key challenges - Air Traffic predictability 25 20 15 10 5 0 IFR traffic in Europe 1960-2012 historical figures 2013-2035 forecast Annual Growth = Actual Traffic Long-Term Trend before 2009 Forecast Trafic -5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Long-Term Trend Long-Term Average Growth 2030 5% 0% -5% -10% 2035 Annual Growth Traffic foreseen for 2020 may happen in 2035! Highly volatile economic growth Air traffic closely linked with economic growth Wide uncertainties in traffic forecasts Flexibility to remain efficient in different scenarios! % change over year (RPKs) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 World GDP (right scale) Growth in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) sources: GDP: data and forecasts - EIU, RPK: data 1971-2009 - ICAO, RPK: estimate and forecasts 2010-2016 - IATA December 2010 Global RPKs (left scale) 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 9 7 5 3 1-1 -3-5 % change over year (GDP) 9
Driving ANS Safety Performance 3 1 2 Compliance based - ICAO USOAP audits - SES targets for RP2 Risk based - Accidents - Serious Incidents - Other measures? Behaviors Adequate KPIs, incentives and regulations 10
Airspace design and management Aviation ENV objectives ACARE: emissions halved in 2050, Carbon-neutral in 2020 Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 2.2 B Environmental impact Free routes implemented in 30/65 ACCs (AF 3) KEA: Improving faster than traffic En-route already Carbon-neutral! Economic impact Economic cost estimate: 2.2B No heavy infrastructure required, unlike train, road A key area for further improvement Total User cost (ground) 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B ATCO Support costs Other staff Other operating CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 2.0 B 3.5 B 1.2 B Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) Improving performance further SES-wide free routes Advanced FUA Sequencing and TMA (RTA, etc) Key role of Network Manager Innovations? 11
Sequencing and TMA Much room for improvement Fuel, flight, economic efficiency TMA/Runway throughput Safety But very challenging ENV constraints Interactions with airport, airlines operations Hundreds of very different airports Weather, wake vortex, etc Real challenges and opportunities for innovation Total User cost (ground) 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 ATCO Support costs Other staff Other operating CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 2.2 B 2.0 B 3.5 B 1.2 B Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) 12
Predictability of operations Runway capacity ATC - Arrival Taxi-in Arrival ATC En-route Network Management Turn-around ATC - Departure Taxi-out ATFM slots Departure Strong links between airline, airport and ATC operations A tightly coupled network Added value of better predictability on Aviation GDP (~ 120B) and passenger value of time 13
Human resources (5 th pillar) Total User cost (ground) Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 ATCO 2.2 B 2.0 B Staff: an essential part of ATM Essential role in delivery 2/3 of costs ( 4B p.a.) 43 500 workers Research on productivity, human factors Shifting the labour/capital balance? 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B Support costs Other staff Other operating 3.5 B CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 1.2 B Exceptional Items 0.8% Cost of capital 7.2% Depreciation costs 11.5% Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) Non-staff operating costs 18.0% Staff costs 62.5% ATCOs in OPS employment costs 48% 52% Other staff employment costs Other staff related costs or benefits 1.9% Contributions to social security scheme and taxes 8.2% Pension contributions 14.5% Gross wages and salaries 75.4% 2011 data US SES area US vs. SES Flights 16.0 M 9.4 M +70% ATCO staff 13 300 14 300-7% Other staff 22 200 29 200-24% Total 35 500 43 500-18% Flight per staff 450 216 +108% 14
Ground infrastructure, airborne equipment Highly fragmented, disparate, costly ground infrastructure Difficult to synchronise evolutions (e.g. data-link) Blocks rapid progress High capital expenditure and maintenance costs Book value approx. 6B (RDPS, FDPS, CWP, etc) 2-3B annual costs Minimising the cost of Airborne equipment How to ensure interoperability, synchronisation, while minimising air/ground infrastructure cost and fostering innovation? Industry standards, mandates Leaving room for initiative, innovation Balance is needed FDP system suppliers Aerotekhnika Bespoke CS SOFT Indra Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman Raytheon SI ATM Selex Thales Total User cost (ground) 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 ATCO Support costs Other staff Other operating CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 2.2 B 2.0 B 3.5 B 1.2 B Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) Lower Airspace Lower Airspace 15
ANSP fragmentation, monopolies Airlines Strong incentives for innovation with de-regulation Learnt to minimise costs, adapt capacity to demand ANSPs Designated by States, mostly monopolies Fragmented service provision, infrastructure 90% of ANS costs Economic surplus: 10% in average, up to 20% Driving behaviours of providers, users SES Performance/charging Regulations Incentives, e.g. modulation of revenue? Opening the market? Industrial organisation A rich scientific corpus: Nobel prize (Jean Tirole) Application to ANS M Total User cost (ground) 1 300 1 170 1 040 910 780 650 520 390 260 130 0 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 ATCO Support costs Other staff Other operating CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 2.2 B 2.0 B 3.5 B 1.2 B Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) DSNA DFS Aena NATS (Continental) ENAV DHMI Skyguide UkSATSE Avinor (Continental) LFV Austro Control LVNL ROMATSA Belgocontrol HCAA PANSA MUAC NAV Portugal (Continental) ANS CR NAVIAIR IAA HungaroControl Croatia Control BULATSA SMATSA Finavia LPS DCAC Cyprus Slovenia Control Oro Navigacija LGS Albcontrol EANS MATS MoldATSA M-NAV ARMATS 56.0% of total European gate-to-gate ATM/CNS provision costs Gate-to-gate ATM/CNS provision costs (in M ) 36.1% of total European gate-to-gate ATM/CNS provision costs Cumulative share ATM/CNS provision costs 7.9% of total European gate-to-gate ATM/CNS provision costs 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16
ATCO productivity Average productivity (flight-hours/atco-hours) Very low (0.8), less than 1 aircraft under control per ATCO on duty! Improves slowly Ambitious targets in SESAR 2020: Innovation required! Composite flighthours 18.2 M ATCO-hour Productivity 0.81 ATCOs employment costs per unit of output 134 30% Support costs per unit of output 302 70% ATCO in OPS hours on duty 22.6 M Employment costs for ATCOs in OPS 2 442 M Support costs 5 495 M ATM/CNS provision costs 7 937 M 2013 ATCO employment costs per ATCO-hour 108 Support cost ratio 3.3 Financial cost-effectiveness indicator 436 EUROCONTROL/PRU Composite flight-hour per ATCO-hour on duty 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.73 0.78 0.80 0.80 0.81 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 17
Matching en-route capacity with demand Capacity Delay costs Offered Unused Capacity Used Capacity shortfall Airborne ANS Flight-efficiency En-route: 1.0 B TMA, taxi: 1.2 B ATFM Delays ER: 0.5, Apt: 0.3 2.2 B Time ATC capacity tends to be very rigid Better matching ATC capacity with demand Gaining on both capacity costs (charges) and delays Impact on some 2.5B p.a. Addressing traffic variability More flexible en-route capacity Sectors Flexible rostering (e.g. Maastricht UAC) Virtual centres, Industrial partnerships Business drivers (e.g. modulation of user charges, ANSP revenues, SATURN) Innovation: new concepts, e.g. Flight-centric ATC Total User cost (ground) 10.5 B User Charges 7.5 B ATCO Support costs Other staff Other operating CAPEX Depreciation Cost of capital Other costs ECTL, MET, NSA 2.0 B 3.5 B 1.2 B Estimated TEC 2012 (SES) 18
New operational concepts Flight-centric ATC Separation responsibility allocated per flight, not per sector ATC load is more stable and predictable: much better use of resources Capacity is much more scalable, not locked in small sector silos Full use of trajectory-based concept of SESAR Flight-centric is trajectory based, makes full use of 4D SESAR 1 concept perpetuates weaknesses associated with sectors, does not use full 4D potential Other concepts: Room for innovation! Delay costs Offered Capacity shortfall Offered Capacity Unused Capacity Used Capacity Used Time Sectors Time of day 19
Flight-oriented view Flight-centric ATC Both piloting and separation functions have flight-oriented view Separating own aircraft against all others Delegated separation Piloting and separation both airborne, both flight-oriented view RPAS Piloting and separation on the ground, both flight-oriented view Flight-oriented view Would ease productivity, integration of RPAS, delegation of separation Current SESAR 1 Flightcentric Sectors P: Piloting, S: Separation Delegated separation Flight-oriented view Air P P P P P P P S RPAS Ground S S S S S Flow, Police P S 20
RPAS Wide variety From toys to high-end aircraft Big challenges and opportunities Integration or segregation? Mass market R/F spectrum etc 21
Efficient use of Radio Spectrum Aviation has significant radio spectrum allocations VHF band (Voice, NAV, VDL) L, S bands (Radar, DME, shared with military) C band (MLS) High value, high demand for spectrum High demand, e.g. 4G networks A licence for a 5 MHz band in a large State can be worth some 2B Active spectrum management Spectrum-efficient technology exists, but high retrofit costs for aviation 8,33kHz, VDL2 are low efficiency, low capacity technologies New Spectrum requirements, e.g. Data/Link, mainly RPAS Opportunity for use of new CNS technology e.g. addressed COM for flight-centric 22
Key challenges and opportunities for innovation Improvements in performance, but much room for further improvements Opportunities from crises, technology, A volatile world, high uncertainties Safety: measuring, controlling risk Enhanced environmental efficiency Sequencing and TMA Predictability of operations Human factors, behaviours, culture Deployment: Balance between standards/plans and innovation Industrial organisation Research, Incentives, Partnerships, ANSP governance Step change in productivity, flexibility New concepts, e.g. flight-centric ATC RPAS: mass market power Spectrum efficient CNS, technology supporting new concepts 23
Conclusions Plenty of challenges and opportunities for innovation Some hints 24