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Measuring Public and Middle Class Attitudes to Democracy and Markets: Key Findings from the 2012 AmericasBarometer Mitchell A. Seligson, Founder and Director of LAPOP Centennial Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University Elizabeth J. Zechmeister, Associate Director of LAPOP & Associate Professor of Political Science, Vanderbilt University
Supporters of the AmericasBarometer The
LAPOP Central at Vanderbilt Unites a Consortium of Partners across the Americas
LAPOP: The Early Years In the 1970s In the 1990s
The AmericasBarometer 2004-2012: 178,864 Interviews 2012: 26 countries 41,632 interviews (min. 1,500/country, with margins of error +/- 2.5%) 2004 2012
The AmericasBarometer Data Base 2004-2012: 178,864 Interviews The only household survey of the hemisphere that includes North America, Central America, South America and key nations in the Caribbean Sample sizes of 1,500 respondents minimum per country Truly nationally representative, urban centers & rural areas Face-to-face interviews conducted in 13 languages Extensive, year-long pretests: 1,116 versions for 2012 round
The only regional survey using handheld computers, with software developed by academic partners in Costa Rica and Bolivia: Reduces data entry errors Allows for multiple languages Easily customized Permits embedded experiments Pretesting in Guyana
Free Reports Available Online Regional Reports Country Reports
Free Access to Online Data Analysis Program in Beginner and Expert Modes www.lapopsurveys.org
AmericasBarometer 2004-2012 SPSS and Stata Data Files now online World-wide free access made possible by support from the Tinker Foundation www.lapopsurveys.org
Views of the Economy in the Americas Have Improved
Views of the national economy were more optimistic in 2012 than in any previous round Perception of National Economic Situation 50 40 30 20 10 0 33.6 36.5 37.3 41.6 45.3 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) SOCT1. How would you describe the country s economic situation? [figure shows mean values on a 0-100 scale where 0=very bad and 100=very good] Note: See LAPOP s comparative and country reports for country-bycountry analyses www.lapopsurveys.org *Trend in 10 countries in 2004
Uruguay Ecuador Guyana Canada Brazil Panama Chile Argentina Venezuela Peru Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Nicaragua Bolivia Paraguay Colombia Honduras Belize Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico Jamaica Haiti United States El Salvador Dom. Rep. 30.0 35.1 34.0 33.0 36.6 41.9 39.6 44.8 44.6 43.6 43.0 43.0 47.8 47.6 47.3 46.9 46.0 49.4 48.1 53.1 50.9 54.0 50.6 54.9 54.3 57.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Perception of National Economic Situation 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) But, views vary across countries. Respondents tend to see the national economy more positively in South America than in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. [Numbers are mean values on 0-100 scale] SOCT1. How would you describe the country s economic situation? Would you say that it is very good, good, neither good nor bad, bad or very bad?
Wealth inequality is steadily declining: based on LAPOP s Gini coefficient of household wealth 0.30 0.30 0.29 Gini Coefficient 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.26 0.26 Measure based on questions about household ownership: TV, Refrigerator, landline, cellphone, vehicle, washing machine, microwave, motorcycle, indoor plumbing, indoor bathroom, computer 0.00 2006 2008 2010 2012
Trinidad & Tobago** Suriname** Belize* Guyana Argentina* Ecuador Costa Rica -0.002-0.014-0.019-0.021 0.014 0.008 0.020 Household wealth inequality has decreased in almost all countries Jamaica -0.023 Brazil Mexico Honduras -0.027-0.030-0.030 (only three countries have increased inequality) Venezuela -0.032 Peru -0.033 Uruguay -0.034 Colombia Nicaragua Chile Dominican Republic Guatemala El Salvador Panama Paraguay Bolivia -0.038-0.043-0.044-0.049-0.051-0.064-0.076-0.077-0.082 Index based on household ownership of the following items: TV, Refrigerator, landline, cellphone, vehicle, washing machine, microwave, motorcycle, indoor plumbing, indoor bathroom, computer Haiti -0.119-0.14-0.12-0.10-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 *2008-12, **2010-12
The plurality of citizens of the Americas perceive themselves as belonging to the middle class 40 30 MOV1. Would you describe yourself as belonging to the upper class, upper middle class, middle class, lower middle class, or lower class? 20 41.0% 29.2% 10 22.2% 5.4% 2.3% 0 Lower class Lower-middle class Middle class Upper-middle class Upper class, 2012
Optimism about the economy is positively related to social class self-identification Perception of Personal Economic Situation (0-100 scale) 60 50 40 30 20 10 44.2 50.9 56.9 60.1 Those belonging to the middle and uppermiddle classes have more positive assessments of their economic situations. 0 Lower class Lower-middle class Middle class Upper-middle class 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)
Despite Positive Economic Trends: Economic Inequalities Persist, Underwritten by Discriminatory Attitudes
Those with Darker Skin Tones are Less Wealthy 3.4 3.2 Significant differences in levels of wealth are found in 21 of 24 countries (no significant difference in Chile, Guyana, and Panama) Quintiles of Wealth 3 2.8 2.6 2.4 Lightest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Darkest Skin Tone
Those with Darker Skin Tones have Lower Levels of Education 11 10.5 Significant differences in levels of wealth are found in 21 of 24 countries (no significant difference in Chile, Guyana, and Belize) Years of Education 10 9.5 9 8.5 Lightest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Darkest Skin Tone
On average, in the Americas, women have lower incomes 8 7.1 6 6.0 Personal Income 4 2 0 Men Woman Women 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)
On average, in the Americas, women and those with darker skin tones have lower personal incomes 8.5 Men 8 Personal Income 7.5 7 6.5 Women 6 5.5 Lightest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Darkest Skin Tone
Machista attitudes continue to give priority to men in the labor market. On average across the Americas, approximately 1 out of 3 individuals favor prioritizing men in the workplace. Figure shows percentage of respondents who agree with the following: GEN1. Some say that when there is not enough work, men should have a greater right to jobs than women. To what extent do you agree or disagree? Dom. Rep. Guyana Paraguay Nicaragua Haiti Belize Chile El Salvador Ecuador Venezuela Suriname Colombia Costa Rica Bolivia Panama Mexico Argentina Jamaica Honduras Guatemala Peru Trinidad & Tobago Brazil Uruguay United States Canada 12.9% 12.6% 17.5% 22.4% 21.4% 27.1% 26.7% 24.9% 29.7% 29.6% 29.5% 29.0% 28.0% 27.6% 33.3% 31.9% 31.6% 31.4% 30.5% 36.6% 40.2% 39.0% 35.7% 40.4% 49.4% 52.8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Men Should Have Priority for Jobs 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Machista attitudes continue to cede political leadership roles to men. [Numbers are mean values on 0-100 scale] VB50. Some say that in general, men are better political leaders than women. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree? Guyana Dom. Rep. Haiti Trinidad & Tobago Jamaica Bolivia Venezuela Belize Honduras Paraguay El Salvador Chile Nicaragua Argentina Canada Peru Suriname Mexico Ecuador Panama Guatemala Colombia Costa Rica United States Brazil Uruguay 47.9 42.1 41.8 39.8 39.7 38.2 38.1 37.4 36.5 35.6 34.6 33.6 33.5 33.2 33.1 32.9 32.2 32.2 32.0 32.0 31.4 30.2 30.1 28.0 26.6 53.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Men Are Better Political Leaders 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Discriminatory attitudes also persist with respect to support for political leadership by those with darker skin tone. [Numbers are mean values on 0-100 scale] VB53. Some say that in general, people with dark skin are not good political leaders. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree? Chile Bolivia Honduras Guatemala Belize Peru Venezuela Ecuador El Salvador Nicaragua Colombia Paraguay Dom. Rep. Mexico Haiti Suriname Panama Argentina Costa Rica Jamaica Brazil Trinidad & Tobago Uruguay 34.3 32.9 31.6 30.9 29.6 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.2 25.7 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.5 23.1 22.8 21.3 19.3 17.0 15.4 0 10 20 30 40 People with Dark Skin Do Not Make Good Leaders 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
However, we find strong support for policies that remove barriers to inequalities. For example, strikingly high levels of support for gender quotas in most countries. [Numbers are mean values on 0-100 scale] GEN6. The state ought to require that political parties reserve some space on their lists of candidates for women, even if they have to exclude some men. How much do you agree or disagree? El Salvador Dom. Rep. Paraguay Uruguay Nicaragua Colombia Chile Argentina Guyana Ecuador Costa Rica Bolivia Mexico Belize Suriname Panama Honduras Peru Venezuela Guatemala Jamaica Haiti Brazil Canada Trinidad & Tobago 47.3 46.4 57.6 53.0 61.7 60.8 60.0 59.8 58.2 64.2 63.0 62.3 68.4 67.4 66.0 65.7 73.6 73.1 70.4 69.8 69.2 78.5 77.6 76.1 81.4 0 20 40 60 80 Support for Gender Quotas 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Paraguay 69.7 Honduras 62.7 Argentina Panama Nicaragua Chile 62.6 59.3 58.4 57.3 And, many respondents express support for racebased affirmative action. Uruguay 57.1 Dominican Rep. 54.3 [Numbers are mean values on 0-100 scale] Bolivia 52.1 Ecuador 51.9 Colombia 51.5 Guatemala 51.3 Venezuela 50.2 Costa Rica 49.4 Mexico 49.3 Peru Brazil Belize El Salvador Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Canada 28.8 30.5 46.9 43.7 42.2 39.1 35.9 RAC2A. Universities ought to set aside openings for students [with darker skin/who are racial or ethnic minorities], even if that means excluding other students. How much do you agree or disagree? United States 25.6 0 20 40 60 80 Support for Affirmative Action 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
And, time-series evidence points to increased political tolerance: support for the rights of gay individuals increased 2004-2012 50 40 30 20 32.4 38.5 40.8 40.8 41.9 D5. And now, changing the topic and thinking of homosexuals, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people being permitted to run for public office? 10 [Graph shows mean values on 0-100 scale; trend is comparable if only original 2004 countries are included] 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 95% Confidence Interval (Design effects based)
Canada 77.8 Uruguay United States Brazil Chile Argentina Colombia Mexico Costa Rica Suriname Nicaragua Ecuador Venezuela Bolivia 52.6 47.9 46.9 43.3 39.1 38.4 38.2 38.0 62.7 60.1 64.3 73.9 77.6 D5. And now, changing the topic and thinking of homosexuals, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people being permitted to run for public office? Trinidad & Tobago 36.7 Peru Paraguay Dominican Rep. 35.7 33.6 31.0 (Scale 1 10, converted to 0 100 scale) Guatemala 30.1 Panama 27.8 El Salvador 26.5 Belize 25.9 Honduras 24.7 Guyana 24.0 Jamaica 20.8 Haiti 8.5 0 20 40 60 80 Gays Should Be Allowed to Run for Public Office 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
D6. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of samesex couples may have the right to marry? [Graph shows mean values on 0-100 scale] Canada Uruguay Argentina United States Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Ecuador Bolivia 26.1 24.7 36.7 55.4 52.0 49.8 45.4 45.1 67.2 67.1 Peru 23.0 Suriname 22.5 Costa Rica 22.3 Venezuela 22.2 Dom. Rep. 21.4 Panama 19.5 Nicaragua 19.3 Trinidad & Tobago 17.6 Paraguay 16.1 Guatemala 16.1 Honduras 15.0 El Salvador 10.0 Guyana 8.8 Belize 8.4 Haiti 6.4 Jamaica 5.1 0 20 40 60 80 Support for Same-Sex Marriage 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Corruption Remains a Vexing Problem: Break-through LAPOP Research* finds Presidents Lack Incentives to Fight Corruption when Economic Performance is Good *Zechmeister & Zizumbo-Colunga. 2013. The Varying Political Toll of Corruption in Good versus Bad Economic Times. Comparative Political Studies.
The percentage of victims of corruption in 2012 is lower than in 2004 and 2006, but does not show a significant, sustained downward trend 25 21.2 Victimization by Corruption 20 15 10 5 19.9 19.4 17.7 19.5 Measure of Corruption Victimization: In the last twelve months, have you been asked to pay a bribe to a) a police officer; b) a government employee; c) municipal government; d) work; e) courts; f) hospital/clinic; and/or g) school 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) [EXC2, EXC6, EXC11, EXC13, EXC14, EXC15, & EXC16] *Trend in 10 countries in 2004
Trends in Reducing Corruption Victimization Vary by Countries Progress Setbacks El Salvador Honduras Ecuador 2012 11.3% 2012 25.7% 2012 40.7% 2010 11.4% 2010 16.2% 2010 21.1% 2008 14.8% 2008 13.8% 2008 25.6% 2006 13.4% 2006 16.1% 2006 31.9% 2004 15.7% 2004 17.5% 2004 34.0% Jamaica Bolivia Haití 2012 7.5% 2012 44.8% 2012 66.6% 2010 7.8% 2010 32.2% 2010 53.6% 2008 2006 2004 24.5% 34.0% 2008 2006 2004 32.8% 34.6% 36.2% 2008 2006 2004 48.2% 50.0% 0 10 20 30 40 Victimization by Corruption 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 Victimization by Corruption 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
New LAPOP Research* shows that Executives are Not Held Accountable for Corruption When Economic Performance is Good In good economic regions, executive approval is not affected by corruption. Where there is substantial income loss, corruption decreases approval of the president Conversely, in bad performing regions, corruption lowers presidential approval. Where incomes remain good, corruption has no effect on approval of the president *Result based on research forthcoming in a leading field journal: Comparative Political Studies
Urban Crime Rates are Deeply Troubling: The AmericasBarometer allows us to drill-down to explore patterns
Violent Crime Victimization Varies by Size of Place Patterns in 24 countries 12 11.2% 11.8% 10 9.0% Violent Crime 8 6 5.3% 6.4% 4 2 0 Rural Area Small City Medium City Large City National Capital (Metropolitan area) Size of place 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)
Quito (Ecuador) Tegucigalpa (Honduras) Guatemala City (Guatemala) La Paz (Bolivia) Mexico City (Mexico) Lima (Peru) Montevideo (Uruguay) Bogotá (Colombia) Buenos Aires (Argentina) Managua (Nicaragua) San Salvador (El Salvador) Asunción (Paraguay) Santo Domingo (Dom. Rep.) Port-au-Prince (Haiti) San José (Costa Rica) Paramaribo (Suriname) Brasilia (Brazil) Caracas (Venezuela) Port of Spain (Trinidad & Tobago) Santiago (Chile) Panamá (Panama) Belmopán (Belize) Kingston (Jamaica) Georgetown (Guyana) 9.4% 7.9% 13.0% 12.9% 12.5% 21.1% 20.2% 19.3% 16.1% 15.6% 24.9% 23.3% 22.3% 26.7% 26.2% 25.7% 30.9% 29.5% 34.7% 33.5% 36.9% 36.5% 34.6% 35.6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Crime Victimization 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) Citizen-Reported Crime Victimization varies across the national capitals (national crime rates are highly skewed by national level of urbanization) Among the capitals Quito, Tegucigalpa and Guatemala City have the highest crime victimization VIC1EXT. Have you been a victim of any type of crime in the past 12 months? That is, have you been a victim of robbery, burglary, assault, fraud, blackmail, extortion, violent threats or any other type of crime in the past 12 months?
ROBO QUITO - YouTube.wmv
Nororiente Noroccidente Zona Metropolitana Sur Guatemala City 0 20 40 80 120 Kilometers Percentage of Victims of Violent Crime, Guatemala (2012) 5.3% - 10% Lower % of Violent Crime 10.1% - 15.3% 15.4% - 24.6% Higher Percentage of Violent Crime Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012 (vic2r)
Norte C San Pedro Sula Norte A Norte B Oriental B Occidental Oriental A Central B Central A Tegucigalpa Sur Percentage of Victims of Violent Crimes, Honduras (2012) 5% - 5.7% Lower % of Violent Crime Victims 0 50 100 150 25 Kilometers Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012 (vic2r). 5.8% - 12.1% 12.2% - 27.5% Higher % of Violent CrimeVictims
Central I Occidental Central II Oriental Metro San Salvador San Salvador Percentage of Victims of Violent Crime, El Salvador, 2012 7.7% - 8.6% Lower % of Violent Crime 8.7% - 12% 12.1% - 16.5% Higher % of Violent Crime 0 10 20 30 5 Kilometers Source: AmericasBarometer by LAPOP, 2012 vic2r)
The Role of the State in Solving Problems: Consensus among most people is on a central role for the State (The U.S. is the Major Outlier)
Panama 69.7 Haiti Chile Paraguay Belize Jamaica Suriname Argentina Uruguay Peru Bolivia Brazil Guyana 57.6 56.9 56.3 56.3 55.9 67.3 66.9 66.7 66.5 66.2 64.7 64.5 ROS1. The (Country) government, instead of the private sector, should own the most important enterprises and industries of the country. How much do you agree or disagree with this statement? Dominican Rep. Honduras El Salvador 55.6 55.3 55.1 (Scale 1 7, converted to 0 100 scale) Mexico 51.2 Trinidad & Tobago 50.9 Guatemala 50.1 Ecuador 48.7 Nicaragua 48.4 Colombia 48.1 Canada 46.8 Costa Rica 43.8 Venezuela 38.2 United States 27.0 0 20 40 60 80 Owner of Businesses 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) 108
Nicaragua Dominican Rep. Paraguay Belize Guyana Suriname El Salvador Uruguay Colombia Panama Argentina Ecuador Jamaica Mexico Chile Bolivia Brazil Costa Rica Peru Venezuela Guatemala Trinidad & Tobago Honduras Haiti Canada United States 36.8 89.8 88.8 86.8 86.7 86.7 85.3 85.2 83.9 83.3 82.6 81.6 80.4 79.6 79.5 79.5 78.0 77.5 77.3 76.6 74.9 74.9 74.0 70.6 63.5 59.7 ROS3. The (Country) government, more than the private sector, should be primarily responsible for creating jobs. To what extent to do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Scale 1 7, converted to 0 100 scale) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Responsible for Creating Jobs 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) 110
Nicaragua Dominican Rep. Panama Paraguay Uruguay Suriname Argentina El Salvador Chile Brazil Mexico Colombia Guyana Costa Rica Trinidad & Tobago Peru Jamaica Ecuador Belize Guatemala Bolivia Canada Venezuela Honduras Haiti United States 47.2 86.3 86.3 85.9 85.6 85.4 85.1 84.4 83.5 83.3 82.0 82.0 81.1 80.8 78.6 78.5 77.8 77.6 76.7 75.8 72.9 72.3 72.2 71.3 68.3 65.4 ROS4. The (Country) government should implement strong policies to reduce income inequality between the rich and the poor. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Scale 1 7, converted to 0 100 scale) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Strong Policies to Reduce Inequality 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) 111
Nicaragua Dominican Rep. Paraguay Belize Guyana Jamaica El Salvador Suriname Argentina Uruguay Trinidad & Tobago Colombia Panama Chile Mexico Brazil Ecuador Venezuela Costa Rica Peru Bolivia Guatemala Honduras Haiti United States 48.0 70.6 70.1 91.3 90.5 90.3 89.6 89.5 88.8 88.0 88.0 87.9 87.3 87.2 85.9 85.7 84.4 83.3 83.1 82.8 81.9 80.8 79.7 79.6 78.1 ROS6. The (Country) government, more than the private sector should be primarily responsible for providing health care services. How much do you agree or disagree with this statement? (Scale 1 7, converted to 0 100 scale) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Responsible for Providing Health Services 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based) 112
Prospects for Stable Democracy: Strikingly Divergent Trends across the Americas (with a special focus on Honduras, Costa Rica, and Venezuela)
LAPOP has developed and validated a leading indicator of democratic stability Tolerance to the right of opposition (political tolerance) Legitimacy (System Support) High Low High Stable Democracy Authoritarian Stability Low Unstable Democracy Democracy at Risk
Legitimacy (system support) B1. To what extent do you think the courts in (country) guarantee a fair trial? B2. To what extent do you respect the political institutions of (country)? B3. To what extent do you think that citizens basic rights are well protected by the political system of (country)? B4. To what extent do you feel proud of living under the political system of (country)? B6. To what extent do you think that one should support the political system of (country)? A lot Not at all 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Political Tolerance D1. There are people who only say bad things about the (country) form of government, not just the incumbent government but the system of government. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people s right to vote? D2. How strongly do you approve or disapprove that such people be allowed to conduct peaceful demonstrations in order to express their views? Strongly approve 10 9 8 7 6 D3. Still thinking of those who only say bad things about the (country) form of government, how strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people being permitted to run for public office? D4. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people appearing on television to make speeches? Strongly disapprove 5 4 3 2 1
United States Canada Uruguay Trinidad & Tobago Guyana Jamaica Argentina Belize Brazil Chile Suriname Nicaragua Venezuela Costa Rica Dominican Rep. Panama Mexico Paraguay Colombia Haiti Guatemala Ecuador El Salvador Bolivia Peru Honduras 34.8 76.4 72.3 72.0 71.1 69.8 66.3 62.0 59.6 59.3 58.4 58.1 57.6 56.2 55.9 55.7 52.7 52.4 52.4 51.7 51.6 50.8 47.1 47.0 45.4 44.5 In 2012, Honduras (but also Peru, Bolivia, El Salvador, and Ecuador) have low levels of support for the right of regime critics to vote. Note much higher levels in Venezuela D1. There are people who only say bad things about the (country) form of government, not just the incumbent government but the system of government. How strongly do you approve or disapprove of such people s right to vote? (Scale 1 10, converted to 0 100 scale) 0 20 40 60 80 Right to Vote 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Honduras 55.0% Haiti 40.8% Bolivia Peru 38.9% 38.8% Democracy Guatemala 30.4% Ecuador Panama 29.2% 28.7% at risk, Brazil 27.7% Paraguay El Salvador 27.5% 26.2% 2012 Dom. Rep. 25.3% Costa Rica 23.2% Mexico 22.9% Colombia 19.5% Argentina Jamaica 17.2% 16.5% Political Tolerance Venezuela Chile Nicaragua Uruguay 15.2% 15.0% 14.4% 14.2% Legitimacy (System Support) High Low Belize 13.8% Suriname 13.0% United States Trinidad & Tobago Guyana 12.6% 11.0% 10.2% High Stable Democracy Authoritaria n Stability Canada 8.7% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Low System Support and Low Tolerance Low Unstable Democracy Democracy at Risk 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Part of the story in Honduras: Declines in political tolerance 2004 2012 60 56.1 50 46.2 47.1 47.5 Political Tolerance 40 30 20 36.6 10 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Year 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based)
Support for Stable Democracy: Changes between 2010 and 2012 Guyana Belize Jamaica Trinidad and Tobago Haiti Canada United States Nicaragua Argentina Paraguay Chile Guatemala Ecuador Dominican Republic -0.5% Peru -2.7% Mexico -2.8% El Salvador -2.9% Venezuela -4.7% Brazil -5.4% Uruguay -6.5% Suriname -6.6% Bolivia -7.2% Colombia -8.6% Panama -12.4% Costa Rica -15.1% Honduras -19.8% 10.7% 8.0% 7.9% 7.4% 7.0% 6.6% 4.5% 3.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
What accounts for the declines in Costa Rica? Loss of legitimacy
Trouble in Paradise? The Decline in System Support in Costa Rica: 1978 2012 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 1978 1980 1983 1985 1987 1990 1995 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 In 2012 the Americas Barometer shows that Costa Rica has hit its lowest system support levels in 34 years. While Costa Rica remains in the upper tier of Stable Democracies, it is clearly trending downward.
Will Political Stability Break Down in Venezuela?
Support for Democracy in the Abstract Has Been Consistently High in Venezuela Uruguay Venezuela Argentina United States Canada Guyana Costa Rica Belize Suriname Chile Panama Nicaragua Jamaica Trinidad & Tobago Brazil Haiti Dom. Rep. Paraguay Colombia Mexico El Salvador Ecuador Peru Bolivia Guatemala Honduras 0 20 40 60 80 100 52.6 63.6 61.8 64.2 61.5 65.6 70.4 70.0 69.1 68.3 68.0 Support for Democracy 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based), 2012 71.9 70.5 76.4 76.3 75.1 74.9 74.6 74.0 73.9 73.8 75.1 73.8 83.0 86.5 85.3 Mean Support for Democracy 100 80 60 40 20 79.1 83.8 0 2007 2008 2010 2012 Year 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) ING4. Changing the subject again, democracy may have problems, but it is better than any other form of government. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? (1-6 disagree/agree scale transformed into a 0-100 scale 74.0 85.3
Venezuela Suriname Uruguay Nicaragua Haiti Ecuador Dominican Rep. Canada El Salvador Bolivia Belize 41.6 41.5 40.7 39.4 39.3 48.7 48.2 47.9 47.1 45.9 45.1 External Political Efficacy in Venezuela under Chávez is the highest of any country, dramatically higher than pre-chávez days (Canache survey 1995: 92% expressed low external efficacy) Jamaica 39.1 Mexico 38.5 Guyana 38.2 Argentina Chile Peru Colombia Paraguay Trinidad & Tobago Guatemala Panama United States 37.8 37.2 37.2 36.2 34.4 33.3 32.9 32.0 31.7 EFF1. Those who govern this country are interested in what people like you think. How much do you agree or disagree with this statement? Brazil Honduras Costa Rica 25.7 28.5 31.4 (Scale 1 7, converted to 0 100 scale) 0 10 20 30 40 50 Leaders are Interested in What People Like You Think 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Few express low trust in the electoral process itself 20 15.9% 12.8% 15 10 5 0 Low trust in elections Low trust in secret ballot 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based), 2012 VENB51. trust that the electoral results reflect the actual votes in Venezuela? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Not at all A lot VENB11. trust that the vote is secret in Venezuela? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Not at all A lot
Very Few Believe a Presidential Self-Coup Would Be Justified 7 5.1% 5.5% JC15A. Do you believe that when the country is facing very difficult times it is justifiable for the president of the country to close the National Assembly and govern without it? JC16A. (same intro) dissolve the Supreme Court and govern without it? 0 Dissolve Supreme Court 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Close Congress Figure shows percentage who say yes, it is justifiable.
However, there is moderate to high concern about Unrest and Transitions 80.3% 80 59.1% 60 50.9% 44.8% 40 35.3% 20 0 Opposition Not Accept Loss Chavez Not Accept Loss Protests Will Increase Perceive High Conflict 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effect Based) Protest if Opposition Wins Graph based on: VENVB11. If the opposition candidate in the next presidential elections were to lose, do you believe the opposition would accept the election results? Yes / No; VENVB12. And do you believe President Chávez would accept the results in case that he were to lose the next presidential election? Yes / No; VENPROT11. Do you believe that over the next few months social and political conflict will www. increase, stay the same, or decrease?; VENPROT10. Do you believe that the current level of social and LapopSurveys.org political conflict in Venezuela is very low, low, neither low nor high, high, or very high?; VENVB16. If the
Honduras Haiti Bolivia Peru Guatemala Ecuador Panama Brazil Paraguay El Salvador Dom. Rep. 30.4% 29.2% 28.7% 27.7% 27.5% 26.2% 25.3% 40.8% 38.9% 38.8% 55.0% Using the LAPOP predictive model, democracy is at low risk of breakdown in Venezuela, 2012 data Costa Rica 23.2% Mexico 22.9% Colombia 19.5% Argentina Jamaica 17.2% 16.5% Political Tolerance Venezuela Chile Nicaragua Uruguay 15.2% 15.0% 14.4% 14.2% Legitimacy (System Support) High Low Belize 13.8% Suriname 13.0% United States Trinidad & Tobago Guyana 12.6% 11.0% 10.2% High Stable Democracy Authoritarian Stability Canada 8.7% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Low System Support and Low Tolerance Low Unstable Democracy Democracy at Risk 95% Confidence Interval (Design-Effects Based)
Yet, authoritarian stability is the largest cell in the table Political Tolerance Legitimacy (System Support) High Low High Stable Democracy 24.5% Authoritarian Stability 36.7% Low Unstable Democracy 23.6% Democracy at Risk 15.2%
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