September Report PDF Free Download

September Report 2018

Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 06 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 08 Currency Trends 10 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 12 France 13 United Kingdom 14 Italy 15 Spain 16 Germany 17 Austria 18 Finland 19 International Holiday Calendar 20 Planet Intelligence 2

Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - September 2018-1% Total Sales Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers France +11% +3% +8% +5% -7% Total Vouchers United Kingdom Italy Spain -8% +1% -18% -10% -6% -10% +2% +8% -9% +0% +3% -3% Germany +1% -5% +6% -1% +7% Total ATV Top 5 Source Markets China Tax Free Sales Turnover +8% Vouchers/ Transaction -1% Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) +9% Arrival Numbers +6% +19% +6% +13% +5% +1% Total Arrivals Russia Saudi Arabia Taiwan -24% -27% +48% -20% -30% +8% -5% +4% +37% -10% -31% +14% Planet Intelligence 3

Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD -3% Total Sales Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers France +1% -4% +5% +5% -8% Total Vouchers United Kingdom Italy Spain -12% +6% -11% -12% +3% -13% -0% +2% +3% +2% +6% +1% Germany -5% -8% +4% -0% +6% Total ATV Top 5 Source Markets China Tax Free Sales Turnover +4% Vouchers/ Transaction -6% Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) +11% Arrival Numbers +3% +7% +1% +6% +5% +3% Total Arrivals Russia Hong Kong Taiwan -18% -7% +8% -16% -10% -5% -2% +4% +13% -7% +4% +5% Planet Intelligence 4

Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends September 2018 Overview After encouraging signals of a return to growth at the start of the second half of 2018, Tax Free shopping sales saw a modest decline of 1% in September following a 2% decline in August. Depreciation among major currencies across the globe in recent months continued to affect the spending power of international tourists, with the exception of American travellers whose dollars went further in Europe after continued currency gains continued to positively influence sales to them. Of the major destination markets, France posted the strongest growth in September, while a significant spike in sales this time last year has led to comparatively subdued growth rates in Spain and Italy. European Travel Commission reports that EU-China Tourism Year is delivering intended growth The European Travel Commission has reported that the region is reaping the intended rewards of a strategic initiative to promote Europe as a destination to Chinese tourists. The report is based on data from our partners at Forward Keys, highlighting a 4% increase in arrivals from China across the first eight months of 2018, with 9.5% growth from January to April and a 2.2% increase from May to August. The impact of currency fluctuations, trade wars and narrowing price differentials will likely have led to the slower rate of growth from May to August, though the report predicts a bounceback in arrivals with a 4.7% increase expected in the final third of the year outstripping the 3.6% growth forecast in Chinese travel to the rest of the world. Y/Y Sales Growth 30% 25% 20% 15% 2017 2018 In Northern Europe, Ireland and Denmark are expected to enjoy arrivals growth of 28% and 12%, respectively. In Western Europe, Austria and Belgium are expected to see respective growths of 20% and 14%. In Southern Europe, Croatia, Cyprus and Greece are predicted to post gains of 66%, 13% and 14% respectively, while the Central and Eastern European destinations of Estonia, Bulgaria and Hungary are all expected to see gains in excess of 20%. 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Whilst this is encouraging news, recent reports of Chinese border authorities tightening inspections of goods bought overseas, and subsequently levying hefty customs on luxury products will potentially affect Chinese consumption. However, it might be premature to assess the impact of this latest development, particularly given these actions are largely aimed at the practice known as Daigou, which is estimated to represent c.1.5% of global luxury sales.

Sales Performance - September 2018 By Destination By Source Market FRA +10.5% CHN +8.0% GBR -8.2% +19.5% ITA +1.2% RUS -23.8% ESP -18.1% SAU -27.0% DEU +0.7% TWN +47.7% AUT +2.9% KWT -12.7% IRL +4.5% UAE +2.2% CZE -14.1% HKG +13.3% PRT -11.5% KOR +24.8% CHE +2.1% QAT -3.6% Planet Intelligence 6

Sales Performance - YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA +1.3% CHN +3.9% GBR -12.5% +7.3% ITA +5.5% RUS -18.0% ESP -10.6% HKG -6.6% DEU -5.0% TWN -7.6% AUT +12.3% KOR -4.2% IRL -2.4% UAE -10.6% CZE -9.1% THA -0.5% PRT -11.8% KWT -11.5% CHE +8.8% SAU -9.3% Planet Intelligence 7

Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country September 2018 Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 32% 1,648 21% 10% 1,315 30% TAIWAN 6% 2,227 111% SOUTH KOREA 5% 728 24% HONG KONG 5% 3,617 5% AUT CHINA 29% 563 12% RUSSIA 7% 464-13% TAIWAN 7% 604 32% SWITZERLAND 6% 385-8% 5% 667 23% GBR CHINA 27% 367-10% KUWAIT 8% 376-16% SAUDI ARABIA 8% 375-32% 7% 365 14% UAE 7% 604 7% IRL 43% 113 14% CHINA 28% 385-7% CANADA 6% 93 15% AUSTRALIA 5% 175 14% HONG KONG 2% 452 177% ITA CHINA 32% 1,099 19% 14% 1,107 12% RUSSIA 10% 763-18% TAIWAN 3% 1,224 4% SOUTH KOREA 3% 773 42% CZE CHINA 34% 387-0% TAIWAN 14% 228-4% RUSSIA 12% 315-45% 7% 432 24% SOUTH KOREA 6% 190-10% ESP CHINA 17% 510-13% RUSSIA 16% 335-27% 7% 501 4% ARGENTINA 5% 196-47% MOROCCO 4% 256-26% PRT CHINA 25% 2,128 9% ANGOLA 21% 383-29% BRAZIL 13% 399-50% QATAR 6% 11,733 4,160% 5% 1,224 26% DEU CHINA 42% 747 5% RUSSIA 6% 525-18% KUWAIT 5% 544-14% UAE 5% 762-7% TAIWAN 5% 460 30% CHE CHINA 17% 1,423 6% UAE 13% 1,584-8% KUWAIT 13% 1,465 1% SAUDI ARABIA 11% 1,391-14% QATAR 9% 2,118 73% Planet Intelligence 8

Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country YTD Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 34% 1,741 10% 9% 1,326 17% HONG KONG 7% 4,244-11% SOUTH KOREA 5% 742-11% TAIWAN 5% 2,047 18% AUT CHINA 29% 613 31% RUSSIA 11% 428-10% SWITZERLAND 8% 413-9% TAIWAN 7% 656 20% THAILAND 4% 702 62% GBR CHINA 26% 401-13% 7% 374-13% KUWAIT 6% 351-15% UAE 5% 577-10% HONG KONG 5% 399-7% IRL CHINA 37% 407-12% 35% 115 11% CANADA 4% 99 14% AUSTRALIA 3% 147-7% MALAYSIA 2% 324 18% ITA CHINA 29% 1,120 13% 12% 1,070 20% RUSSIA 10% 766-10% TAIWAN 5% 1,247-2% SOUTH KOREA 4% 793 41% CZE CHINA 24% 353 6% RUSSIA 23% 360-31% TAIWAN 16% 230 9% SOUTH KOREA 6% 193-21% 5% 481 7% ESP CHINA 28% 693-3% RUSSIA 8% 358-22% 8% 575-7% ARGENTINA 5% 231-31% MEXICO 4% 394-6% PRT CHINA 34% 2,046 3% BRAZIL 18% 356-26% ANGOLA 17% 376-30% 3% 616-17% RUSSIA 3% 306-33% DEU CHINA 36% 658-7% RUSSIA 9% 534-12% UAE 5% 774-19% TAIWAN 4% 451 0% THAILAND 4% 971-3% CHE CHINA 23% 1,328 29% UAE 8% 1,816-1% RUSSIA 7% 1,358-17% 6% 1,366 34% SAUDI ARABIA 5% 1,535-2% Planet Intelligence 9

Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP 1.26 9.8 1.45 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 Planet Intelligence 10

Arrivals Forecast In partnership with Know tomorrow s travellers Planet Intelligence 11

Europe Overview TOTAL +10.9% GBR +8.9% FIN +18.9% Destination Market Insights +2.8% +5.5% -2.5% A 2.8% increase in non-eu tourist arrivals is expected across Europe in the final quarter of 2018, marking a significant decrease on the 10.9% growth seen in the same period in 2017. DEU With the exception of Finland and Germany, all destination markets are predicted to experience growth during this period, with Austria and Italy expected to post the strongest gains, with forecasted growth of 7.1% and 6.6%, respectively. While the rate of gains appears muted when compared with the same period last year, opportunities for sales growth continue to look positive for retailers. +8.3% -2.9% Source Market Insights AUT The continued strengthening of the US dollar coincided with a 19% year-on-year increase in sales to American tourists in September. The growth, compared to the comparatively lower 5% increase in arrival numbers, demonstrates the increase in purchasing power among these tourists. This is also reflected in the 14% increase in American tourists predicted for the October through to December period of 2018 a four percentage point increase on the same period last year. Despite the fact that the yuan renminbi has demonstrated a degree of weakness in recent months, the predicted 5% increase in Chinese tourists predicted across the fourth quarter continues to provide ample opportunity to retailers. This increase is boosted by forecasted growth rates of 24%, 12% and 8% among Chinese arrivals in Austria, Spain and the UK, respectively. ESP +11.4% +4.1% FRA +15.3% +0.3% ITA +6.3% +7.1% +10.8% +6.6% Planet Intelligence 12

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - France RUS +22.1% -10.4% CHN +14.4% +3.9% HNG +13.5% +9.3% KOR +17.5% +12.2% +14.1% +5.6% BRA +33.0% JPN +13.6% -8.3% +27.5% KUW +47.8% TWN +17.4% -0.8% +17.6% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +2.9% +13.9% +7.2% +20.2% +22.9% AUS +31.7% +12.4% +2.6% -1.4% +9.6% +48.9% +4.1% Planet Intelligence 13

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - UK RUS +14.4% -14.2% CHN -0.2% +8.4% HNG -1.1% +3.2% +1.6% KOR +16.5% +15.1% +13.8% BRA +11.6% JPN -3.6% +6.1% +23.6% KUW +35.3% TWN +16.2% +11.2% -0.8% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +1.8% +11.8% +10.1% +6.2% +21.8% AUS +36.7% +34.3% +5.1% +2.0% +8.3% +3.2% -2.2% Planet Intelligence 14

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Italy RUS +8.3% -11.4% CHN +18.1% +2.2% HNG +7.6% +18.5% KOR +16.1% +25.3% +19.0% +18.9% BRA +3.7% JPN -8.8% +9.4% +8.4% KUW +45.8% TWN +38.7% -9.6% -11.2% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +11.7% -11.5% -2.2% +29.3% +20.8% AUS +39.2% -7.8% -12.9% -8.1% +7.9% +47.9% +0.2% Planet Intelligence 15

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Spain RUS +9.4% -0.1% CHN +4.4% +12.1% HNG +41.9% -6.5% KOR +18.4% -0.5% +14.5% +27.1% BRA +4.7% JPN -14.5% -0.7% +21.7% KUW -11.8% TWN +12.5% +3.3% +12.5% SAU QAT UAE IND THA -11.2% -27.1% -1.8% +0.9% +46.7% AUS +41.4% +1.9% +0.6% -7.0% +25.7% -8.8% -2.8% Planet Intelligence 16

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Germany RUS +9.1% -12.6% CHN +7.5% +1.2% HNG +2.6% -5.8% KOR +5.2% +22.5% +6.0% +6.7% BRA +0.8% JPN +5.6% -9.0% +11.1% KUW +17.1% TWN -1.8% -1.6% +3.8% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +1.7% +1.8% +4.9% +14.7% +49.2% AUS +30.4% -5.2% -8.3% -15.6% -13.5% +3.0% -1.7% Planet Intelligence 17

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Austria RUS +3.9% -15.2% CHN +15.8% +23.8% HNG +49.0% -8.3% KOR +0.0% +33.3% +14.4% +5.7% BRA -7.1% JPN +2.9% -0.6% +2.7% KUW +11.3% TWN +63.0% +17.0% +32.5% SAU QAT UAE IND THA -1.0% -25.0% +6.1% -1.2% +154.3% AUS +34.8% +12.4% +23.0% -6.0% +23.3% +80.8% +1.0% Planet Intelligence 18

3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Finland RUS +28.4% -19.1% CHN +32.6% -3.9% HNG +18.6% -4.9% KOR +11.2% +14.4% +21.9% -0.7% BRA +15.1% JPN +12.7% +8.2% -8.4% KUW +38.5% TWN +49.6% -11.1% -4.2% SAU QAT UAE IND THA +8.9% -4.4% -0.6% +34.4% +33.4% AUS +95.5% -8.7% -18.5% -13.8% -0.6% -6.1% -0.1% Planet Intelligence 19

International Holiday Calendar 2018 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CHN 1-2 New Year s Holiday 16-21 Spring Festival - 5 Qing Ming Jie 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 24 Mid-Autumn Festival 1 National Day Chinese New Year 2-7 Golden Week Holiday RUS 1 New Year s Day 7 Orthodox Xmas Day 23 Defence of the Fatherland Day 8 Women s Day 12 National Day 4-6 Unity Day Holiday IND 36 Republic Day 13 Maha Shivaratri 25 Rama Navami 30 Buddha Purnima 15 Independence Day 29 Mahavir Jayanti 22 Bakr Id / Eid ul-adha 30 Good Friday 3 Janmashtami 21 Muharram / Ashura 19 Dussehra 7 Diwali / Deepavali 25 Christmas Day 21 Milad un-nabi 23 Guru Nanak Jayanti BRA 1 New Year s Day 10-14 Carnival 30 Good Friday 21 Tiradentes Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 31 Corpus Christi 7 Independence Day 12 Our Lady Aparecida Day / Childeren s Day 28 Public Service Holiday 2 All Soul s Day 15 Republic Proclamation Day 24 Christmas Eve 25 Christmas Day 31 New Years Eve MID EAST 1 New Year s Day 6 Army Day (Iraq) 11 Revolution Day (Iran) 25 Kuwaiti National Day 26 Liberation Day (Kuwait) 20 Oil Nationalisation Day (Iran) 21-24 Perian New Year (Iran) 30 Birthday of Imam Ali (Iran) 1 Islamic Republic Day (Iran) 2 Nature Day (Iran) 11-17 Pesach I (First day of Passover - Israel) 13 Prophet s Ascension (UAE/Iran) 24 Isra & Miraj (Oman) 27 Isra & Miraj (Kuwait) 1 Labour Day / May Day (Iraq / Bahrain) 2 Israel Independence Day) 31 Pentecost (Israel) 4 Anniversary of Khomeni s Death (Iran) 15-17 Eid-al-Fitr (UAE) 24-29 Eid-al-Fitr (Oman) 26-28 Eid-al-Fitr (Kuwait) 23 Renaissance Day (Oman) 21 Arafat Day (UAE) 21 Eid-e-Ghorban (Iran) 22-26 Eid-al-Adha 1 Waqfat Arafat Day (Kuwait) 2-4 Eid-al-Adha (Kuwait / Saudi Arabia) 12 Islamic New Year (UAE / Bahrain / Iraq) 19 Tassoua (Iran) 21-22 Rosh Hashana (Israel New Year) 22 Islamic New Year (Kuwait) 24 Saudi National Day 30 Yom Kippur (Israel) 3 Iraqi Independence Day 5-11 Sukkot (Israel) 12 Simchat Torah (Israel) 29 Arbaeen (Iran) 21 Mouloud - Prophet s Birthday (UAE). 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday (Iran) 30 Commemoration Day (UAE) 1 Prophet s Birthday (Kuwait) 2 National Day (UAE) 16-17 National Day (Bahrain) HKG 1 New Year s Day 16-19 Spring Festival - 30 Good Friday Chinese New Year 31 Holy Saturday 2 Easter Monday 5 Tomb Sweeping 1 Labour Day 22 Buddha s Birthday 18 Dragon Boat Festival 1-2 Establishment Day 25 Day after 1 PRC National Day Holiday Mid-Autumn Festival 17 Chung Yeung Festival 25 Christmas Day 26 Boxing Day IDN 1 New Year s Day 16 Spring Festival - 17 Day of Silence & Chinese New Year Hindu New Year 30 Good Friday 13 Ascension of the Prophet Mohammad 1 Labour Day 10 Ascension Day of Jesus Christ 29 Waisak Day 12-17 Idul Fitri 17 Independence Day 21 Muslim Day of Sacrifice 11 Muharram - Islamic New Year 20 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day MYS 16 Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 29 Wesak Day 1 Labour Day 15-16 Hari Raya 28 Yang di-pertuan 22 Hari Raya Haji Agong s Birthday 31 Nataional day 12 Muharram - Islamic New Year 16 Malaysia Day 7 Diwali / Deepavali 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day THA 1 New Year s Day 31 Makha Bucha 6 Chakri Day 1 Labour Day 13-17 Songkran 10 Royal Ploughing 29 Visakha Bucha Ceremony Day 27 Asalha Bucha 28 King Vajiralongkorn s Birthday 28 Buddhist Lent Day 12-13 The Queen s Birthday 12-13 Mother s Day 23 Chulalongkorn Day 5 Father s Day 10 Constitution Day 31 New Year s Eve JAP 1 New Year s Day 8 Coming of Age Day 11-12 National Foundation Day 21 Spring Equinox 29-30 Showa Day 3 Constitution Memorial Day 4 Greenery Day 5 Childeren s Day 16 Sea Day 11 Mountain Day 17 Respect the Aged Day 8 Sports Day 3 Culture Day 23 Labour Thanksgiving Day 23-24 Emporor s Birthday 1 New Year s Day 15 Martin Luther King Jr Day 19 President s Day 4 Independence Day 3 Labour Day 8 Columbus Day 11-12 Veteran s Day 25 Christmas Day 22 Thanksgiving Day Planet Intelligence 20

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