Premium Pax, Million Economy Pax, Million PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR JANUARY 213 KEY POINTS Growth in premium travel slowed in January. The number of passengers traveling in premium seats on international markets was 3.3% higher in January compared to a year ago, down on the December result of 4.%. Economy class passenger numbers were up 2.9% in January on a year ago, also slowdown on the December growth of 4.2%. There are some distortions to these January results due to the Chinese New Year holiday occurring a month later in 213 (in February) than in 212, particularly for markets linked to the Far East. The impacts were mixed. Premium travel on Europe-Far East was.6% higher in January compared to a year ago; an inflated resulted owing to business closures suppressing premium travel in January 212. By contrast, economy class travel within the Far East was up just 2.7% in January compared to a year ago, a downward bias due to a spike in leisure travel last January. After adjusting for seasonal factors, we estimate that premium year-on-year growth in January should be reduced by a few tenths of a percentage point, while for economy travel there should be an upward adjustment by the same degree. The growth trend in international air travel, as shown in the first chart below, weakened in January. Both travel classes saw a contraction in the seasonally adjusted level of international passenger numbers by.% in January compared to December. Although this could just be a result of month-on-month volatility, the longer-term trend suggests otherwise. Over the last 6 months, premium and economy international passenger numbers has been just increasing at a slow 2-3% annualized rate. But the weakness in the growth trend is not widespread; it is largely isolated to markets connected to Europe. Economic recession throughout the continent continues to erode demand for air travel. Premium travel within Europe, which is the largest market by passenger numbers, contracted.% in January compared to a year ago, and economy travel was up just.6%. Travel across the North Atlantic was also weak with no growth in premium demand in January on a year ago, and just a.9% rise in economy. Emerging markets, particularly those linked to the Far East, are the source of growth in international premium travel. Positive momentum in key Asian economies including China and South Korea as well as growth in trade and industrial production has helped boost demand for air travel for that region. Premium travel results for emerging markets were robust in January compared to a year ago: within Far East (4.6%), Africa Far East (.3%), and Africa Middle East (.9%). Recently there have been signs that the downward pressure on air travel markets seen throughout 212 is starting to ease. With current levels of business confidence pointing to moderate growth in the months ahead and positive signs coming from emerging markets like Asia, that optimism could well materialize. However, with developed economies continuing to show weakness, downside risks for air travel demand remain a factor in 213. 8. International air passengers by seat class (seasonally adjusted) 8.% Premium passengers as a % of total (seasonally adjusted) 7. 8 9.% 7. 7 9.% 6. 7 6 8.% 6.. Premium Economy 6 8.% 7.%. 7.% IATA Economics: www.iata.org/economics 1
% Growth, Year-on-Year % change over year % Change over Year Confidence Index Premium Traffic Monitor Premium travel markets are driven largely by demand for business travel. World trade is a good proxy for business travel not only because of the link to manufacturing activity, but also because it is associated with international industries like banking and consultancy. The first chart shows the close movement in premium travel growth and world trade growth. Over the last year, however, world trade growth has been tracking at a weaker pace than premium travel growth. The weakness in developed economies, particularly in Europe, has caused international trade of developed countries to decline overall. Countering the impact of this weakness is the strength of developing markets, such as Asia, the Middle East and South America. International trade in emerging economies has been increasing at a stronger rate, helping sustain demand for business-related premium travel. Predict future demand and minimize investment risk. Airline Industry Forecast 211-21 now available www.iata.org/forecast Business confidence is a good leading indicator of premium travel growth itself. The second chart below shows the JP Morgan/Markit measure of confidence in the manufacturing industry. The Index is now above the neutral mark, in expansion territory. There was a slight decline in the index in February, but most of that comes from weaker readings in China, where the timing of the Chinese New Year negatively affecting manufacturing activity that month. Nevertheless, the current level of business confidence indicates modest growth in the months ahead. This in turn should provide support to premium travel demand, and help prevent any further slowing in the growth trend. 2 2 1 - - -1-2 -2-3 Premium passengers and world trade growth Source: Netherlands CPB, IATA Premium Travel Growth World Trade in Goods Growth 2 1 - - -1-2 -2-3 Premium Travel and Business Confidence, Markit/JP Morgan Premium Travel Growth Business Confidence 6 4 4 3 3 3% Premium ticket volume and revenue growth Premium revenues 1 Traffic Growth by Route - 2% % % -% -2% -3% Premium volumes -4% -% - First / Business Economy Total Within Europe North Atlantic Within Far East Europe-Far East North and Mid Pacific TRAFFIC GROWTH BY MAJOR ROUTE Although the January air travel data has been slightly distorted by the timing of the Chinese New Year occurring a month later in 213 (in February) than in 212 (in January) the diverging trend between developed and emerging markets has continued into 213. Major travel markets, including within Europe and North Atlantic made very little contribution to growth in premium travel in January. In fact, premium travel within Europe contracted.% in January year-on-year. The persisting economic weakness has clearly had a negative impact on business activity in the IATA Economics: www.iata.org/economics 2
Premium Traffic Monitor Eurozone, and led to a decline in premium travel. Economy class travel within Europe, which held up reasonably well in 212 despite recessionary conditions in many economies, started the New Year with a weak result up just.6% in January compared to a year ago. Across the North Atlantic, air travel growth has been contained by tight capacity of North American airlines, but the Eurozone weakness would also be affecting demand on this market. This route is particularly important in terms of both share of revenues (about 23% of total premium revenues) and passenger numbers (14% of total premium international passengers). Premium travel across the North Atlantic made no progress in January compared to a year ago, and economy travel across the North Atlantic was up only.9%. Growth in premium travel markets has been supported by demand from emerging economies. A major contributor to growth in premium traffic in 212 was the within Far East market, which was 4.6% higher in January compared to a year ago. Recent months have shown signs of a revival in the Chinese economy, and in fact, China, Taiwan and South Korea all continue to see solid levels of business confidence. In addition, growth in both Asian trade and industrial production picked up over the last months of 212, also providing support to business travel demand in the region. African and Middle Eastern markets also performed strongly in January, with economies in this region continuing to show good growth. Strong domestic demand continues to drive import activity in both Africa and the Middle East, supporting growth in premium travel. As a result, we saw robust growth for markets linked to these regions, including Africa Middle East (.9%) and Africa Far East (.3%). IATA Economics 18 th March 213 E-Mail: economics@iata.org IATA Economics: www.iata.org/economics 3
Premium Traffic Monitor PREMIUM TRAFFIC GROWTH BY ROUTE Share of Total Premium Premium Traffic Growth Economy Traffic Growth Traffic Revenues Jan 13 vs. Jan 12 212 vs. 211 Jan 13 vs. Jan 12 212 vs. 211 Africa - Far East.3%.%.3%.%.7% 11.2% Africa - Middle East 1.8%.9%.9% 1.7% 13.1% 19.2% Europe - Africa 4.% 4.3%.2% 4.% 4.1% 6.9% Europe - Far East 8.7% 1.6%.6%.% 6.% 7.8% Europe - Middle East.8% 6.9% 7.3% 9.2% 9.8%.9% Far East - Southwest Pacific 2.1% 2.4% -3.2% 3.9% -8.% 3.8% Mid Atlantic 1.3% 2.4% -1.% -1.3%.1% 4.2% Middle East - Far East 3.6% 2.6% 3.% 13.% 8.8% 7.6% North America - Central America 7.1% 2.1% 7.6% 3.1%.2%.% North America - South America 3.7% 4.3% 6.7%.7% 12.3% 6.8% North and Mid Pacific 6.2% 12.2% 1.6%.6% -1.2% 4.7% North Atlantic 14.3% 22.9%.%.6%.9%.8% Other routes 4.% 2.6% 6.6% 9.% 12.2% 8.% South Atlantic 2.9% 4.7% -1.1% 3.7% -1.2% 4.1% South Pacific.6% 1.3% 3.4% -2.6%.8% 2.3% Within Africa 1.1%.% 4.9% 14.7% -1.6% 11.% Within Europe 16.6% 1.3% -.% -2.6%.6% 2.3% Within Far East 12.6% 4.7% 4.6% 3.7% 2.7% 4.1% Within North America 1.%.6% 2.8% 1.% 4.8% 4.% Within South America 1.9% 2.6%.1% 9.%.7% 8.% Total.%.% 3.3% 4.8% 2.9%.9% IATA Economics: www.iata.org/economics 4
Africa - Middle East Other routes North America - South America Africa - Far East Europe - Middle East Middle East - Far East Europe - Far East Within South America Within North America Europe - Africa Total Within Far East South Pacific North America - Central America North Atlantic Within Europe Mid Atlantic North and Mid Pacific Within Africa South Atlantic Far East - Southwest Pacific % Growth Africa - Middle East Europe - Far East Africa - Far East North America - Central America Europe - Middle East North America - South America Other routes Within South America Within Africa Within Far East Middle East - Far East South Pacific Total Within North America North and Mid Pacific Europe - Africa North Atlantic Within Europe South Atlantic Mid Atlantic Far East - Southwest Pacific % Growth Premium Traffic Monitor 2% International Premium Traffic Growth by Route - % % -% 2% % International Passenger Growth by Route - % -% IATA Economics: www.iata.org/economics