TOURISM TRENDS Q3 2017
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CONTENTS KEY TAKEWAYS 4 DIVERSIFICATION 5 REVENUE 6 MARGINS 7 PROFITABILITY 8 REFERENCES & AUTHORS 9
KEY TAKEWAYS INDUSTRY LEVEL HOTEL SPECIFIC Turist arrivals increased t 309k (+5%) cmpared Mauritian Turism sectr cntinued its recvery t Q3-16 leading t imprved Revenue per Rm (Rev/Rm) Arrivals and Flights nce again shwed crrelatin. Extra flights by SAA and Eurwings appear t have bsted S.African & German arrivals while fewer flights by BA and MK t Shanghai appears t that cntributed t the drp in UK and China arrivals Q3 Turism Receipts per Day (RpVD) at 94 (+1%) remained fairly stable cmpared t last year Maldives Rev/Rm declined further amid supply (rms) grwth utpacing demand (arrivals). Cmpared t Q3-16, Arrivals in Q3-17 increased by 5% while beds capacity increased by 12% As a result, bth Margins and Prfits imprved in Mauritius but declined in Maldives 4
DIVERSIFICATION Recvery f dmestic ecnmies within traditinal markets cupled with imprved cnnectivity, led t Eurpe maintaining its dminance with a 54% market share, a +22% dependence which may becme unhealthy shuld the mix becme increasingly geared twards a handful f cuntries. +0% 2% Added flights frm S.Africa & Eurpe bsted arrivals frm Africa (+7%) and 19% Eurpe (+5%), whereas MK trimming flights t China and adding flights t Australia resulted in flat AsiaPac (+0%) arrivals and subsequent further shrinking market 20% share t 19%. Receipts per Visitrs per Day (RpVD) increased marginally t 94 (+2%) and inline its lng-term average (excl. anmalus 2013) f 92. 22% 26% 50% 54% 54% +5% Receipts per Viz per Day / Arrivals RpVD [ ] Arrivals [k] 309 98 88 294 96 92 270 93 94 85 235 92 223 208 210 208 195 67 Q3-09 Q3-10 Q3-11 24% 25% +7% Eurpe Africa AsiaPac Americas 5
MOLI CHSL SCT LUX NMHL* SUN REVENUE PER ROOM MAURITIUS The turism sectr s recvery after several difficult years has allwed hteliers t increase rm rates n the back f higher ccupancy rates 164 149 158 192 320 341 331 216 172 143 119 105 191 4 228 148 This led t a further increase in Rev/Rm fr listed htel grups, except fr LUX wh was impacted by the renvatin wrks at LUX* Grand Gaube MALDIVES CHSL s 8% ann. drp in Rev/Rm t $569 frm 93 95 97 89 73 57 610 498 506 487 392 190 201 175 156 106 125 165 2013 s peak f $723, embdies the difficult situatin in Maldives where increased supply f htels is hurting bth rates and ccupancy. Fllwing renvatin wrks in Q3-16, Rev/Rm fr bth LUX and SUN std mechanically higher 148 108 159 164 192 662 723 514 150 160 177 679 618 246 244 569 339 6 Rev per rm (Mtius) [ ] Rev per rm (Mdives) [$] 1 2 * Includes Seychelles and Mrcc. NMHL stpped disclsing segmental breakdwn by activity in 2016
MOLI SCT NMHL* MARGINS SUN CHSL LUX MAURITIUS All f SUN (in spite f refurb. @ La Pirgue), CHSL (incl. 15-Day clsure f Belle Mare Plage in Q3-16), and MOLI all basted imprved margins in-line with imprved lcal cnditins Op. Prfit Margin EBITDA Margin 3 4-3 -5-40 -36-30 -14-21 -29-155 -41-41 -42-204 Althugh psitive, LUX s margins expectedly shrank in-line with refurbishment f its ~200-Rm htel in Grand Gaube MALDIVES CHSL s margins fell substantially reflecting the -9-8 -9-16 -24-50 6 9 7 4-1 1-3 -8-7 -12 difficult prevailing cnditins LUX s Operating Cst Incme Rati (CIR) std at 108% in its maiden Q3 pst-renvatin, whereas SUN s Kanuhura whse re-pening was delayed with rates maintained recrded an underwhelming Q3 7 1-18 0-3 -5 5-2 -1-41 -41 3 1-7 -17-4 -19-7 -17 05 Op. Prfit Margin (Mtius) [%] Op. Prfit Margin (Mdives) [%] PAT margin 1 2 * Includes Seychelles and Mrcc. NMHL stpped disclsing segmental breakdwn by activity in 2016
MOLI CHSL SCT LUX NMHL* PROFITABILITY MAURITIUS In-line with imprved rates and margins, SUN, CHSL & MOLI increased results by Rs52M, Rs26M & Rs12M respectively LUX impacted by refurb. recrded a Rs24M Op. Prfit EBITDA 42 50-31 -55 SUN -165-153 -204-193 -205-36 -35-28 -88-44 -302-37 drp, while SCT (-Rs2M) was hurt by unplanned repairs MALDIVES With Bed Places in resrts grwing 8% ann. -5-13 -17-9 -11-34 19 31 44 28 4-24 -10-28 -22-55 -56-3 since 2014, and Arrivals by 4% ann. since 2014 htel grup prfitability is being adversely impacted. CHSL & SUN lsses dubled t Rs60M & Rs88M respectively while LUX lsses std at Rs22M 1 7-14 -3-5 -50 13 4-38 -11-51 -25-74 -85-28 -60-4 -5 8 Op. Prfit (Mtius) [Rs M] Op. Prfit (Mdives) [Rs M] * Includes Seychelles and Mrcc. NMHL stpped disclsing segmental breakdwn by activity in 2016 PAT margin
REFERENCES & AUTHORS REFERENCES AUTHORS TRADING Statistics Mauritius. <Mnthly Arrivals>. http://statsmauritius.gvmu.rg/english/pag es/default.aspx. Bank f Mauritius. <Mnthly Statistical Bulletin>. https://www.bm.mu Bhavik DESAI Head f Research Alexis CORSON Investment Analyst Fr buying r selling stcks, bnds and ETFs please liaise with: Damien Malliaté r Adlette RIOUX Stck Exchange f Mauritius <Quarterly Accunts>. http://www.stckexchangefmauritius.cm 9
CONTACT US 6 th Flr, Dias Pier Building, Le Caudan Waterfrnt, Caudan, Prt-Luis, 11307 (230) 405 4000 research@axys-grup.cm www.axys-grup.cm