I-95 Transit/ TDM Study LRTP Advisory Committee Meeting June 22, 2017 1
Agenda & Overview Agenda: Project Overview Market Analysis Methodology Results Baseline 2030 2045 Next Steps Project Overview: Market Analysis and Service Plan for Commuter Bus service via I-95 Study Area: Caroline, King George, Stafford, Spotsylvania & City of Fredericksburg to points north 2
Scope of Work & Schedule Task 2: Literature Review and Existing Conditions Task 3: Market Analysis and Prioritization Methodology Task 4: Transit Route Recommendations Task 5: TDM Plan Task 6: Draft and Final Report 3
What is a Market Analysis? To determine from where to where commuter bus service would be the most successful Focus on commuters and peak period service From the FAMPO/GWRC region to Prince William County, Fairfax County, Arlington, Alexandria, and DC 4
Origin Zones Census block groups in the FAMPO/GWRC region Commuter Transit Index calculated: Index of likely transit commuters using ACS data Based on commuters, Labor Force, Transit Commuters, Zero/One-Car Households Prince William County included to normalize the data Block groups aggregated to larger zones, roughly based on existing and planned park and ride lots 5
Origin Zones Commuter Transit Index (Where likely commuter bus users live) Census block groups Districts 6
Destination Zones Census block groups clustered around external nodes from FAMPO model between FAMPO region and DC 3 external nodes further disaggregated into smaller zones for increased specificity: Beltway Arlington DC Workplace Transit Index calculated: Total jobs and job density 7
Destination Zones Workplace Transit Index Where the jobs are 8
FAMPO Model Flows Preparation: Convert the FAMPO model TAZs to the origin block groups Add vanpool flows and VRE flows to the FAMPO model flows, since the FAMPO model includes vehicle flows only. Use Streetlight to break up the travel flows to the external nodes that were further disaggregated (Beltway, Arlington, & DC) *31% other locations in Fairfax County; 16% Montgomery County, MD; 35% Prince George s County, MD External Node 988 1002 1009 Destination Zone Name Streetlight Travel Index % King St/Old Town 3% Merrifield 8% Tysons 7% Other Activity Centers along the Beltway 82%* Pentagon City/Crystal City 31% Rosslyn/Courthouse 26% Pentagon 21% Shirlington 2% Ballston/Clarendon 20% Downtown DC 46% Union Station/NoMA/Capitol Hill 28% Southwest DC 18% Navy Yard 8% 9
Market Determination For Base Year, 2030, and 2045: Assign each travel flow a likely transit mode split percentage based on its origin block group commuter transit index score and its destination zone workplace transit index score. Aggregate each travel flow on the origin side to the larger origin zones created (slide 8) Highlight the origin zone to destination zone pairs with the highest ridership potential for inclusion in the market. 10
2015 Results 11
2015 Results 12
2015 Results Destintation / Origin Quantico Pentagon Pentagon City/Crystal City Southwest DC Union Station/NoMA/Capitol Hill Downtown DC Southwest Spotsylvania / Spotsylvania Courthouse Caroline County North / Massaponax King George County South Spotsylvania County Northwest Fredericksburg West Fredericksburg East Stafford County Southwest (Rte 17) Falmouth / Leeland Stafford County West (Rte 17 to Rte 630) Brooke Aquia Harbor Total 5,956 Stafford County Northwest Total 13
2030 Results 14
2030 Results 15
2030 Results Destintation / Origin Southwest Spotsylvania / Spotsylvania Courthouse Caroline County North / Massaponax King George County South Spotsylvania County Northwest Fredericksburg West Stafford Fredericksburg County East Southwest (Rte 17) Falmouth / Leeland Stafford County West (Rte 17 to Rte 630) Brooke Aquia Harbor Stafford County Northwest Total Quantico Pentagon Pentagon City/Crystal City Rosslyn/Courthouse Southwest DC Union Station/NoMA/Capitol Hill Downtown DC Total 6,947 16
2045 Results 17
2045 Results 18
2045 Results Destintation / Origin Quantico Ft Belvoir Pentagon Pentagon City/Crystal City Rosslyn/Courthouse Ballston/Clarendon Navy Yard Southwest DC Union Station/NoMA/Capitol Hill Downtown DC Southwest Spotsylvania / Spotsylvania Courthouse Caroline County North / Massaponax King George County South Spotsylvania County Northwest Fredericksburg West Stafford Fredericksburg County East Southwest (Rte 17) Dahlgreen Junction / Stafford County Southeast King George Falmouth / County North / Leeland Brookfield Stafford County West (Rte 17 to Rte 630) Total 9,221 Brooke Aquia Harbor Stafford County Northwest Total 19
Final Market Top (ridership) OD pairs that do not duplicate VRE service Destination Origins Southwest Spotsylvania/Spotsylvania Increase in Courthouse, Caroline County North / King George County South, Massaponax, Downtown DC demand by Spotsylvania County Northwest, Fredericksburg East, Falmouth/Leeland, Brooke, Aquia Harbor, Stafford County Northwest 2045 for each Southwest Spotsylvania/Spotsylvania base year/2030 Union Courthouse, Massaponax, Spotsylvania County Station/NoMA/Capitol Hill Northwest, Aquia Harbor, Stafford County Northwest connection Many connections can be combined Caroline County North / King George County Rosslyn/Courthouse, South, Fredericksburg East, Falmouth/Leeland, with others Arlington Stafford County Northwest Caroline County North / King George County Navy Yard South, Fredericksburg East, Falmouth/Leeland, Further Brooke, Stafford County Northwest Caroline County North / King George County Ballston/Clarendon, South, Fredericksburg East, Falmouth/Leeland, refinement in Arlington Stafford County Northwest Caroline County North / King George County Task 4 Service Fort Belvoir South, Fredericksburg East, Falmouth/Leeland, Stafford County Northwest Plan Base Year 2030 2045 x x x x x x Southwest DC Stafford County Northwest x x x Pentagon/Pentagon Caroline County North / King George County City/Crystal City South, Stafford County Northwest x x x Massaponax, Spotsylvania County Northwest, Aquia Harbor, Stafford County Northwest, Quantico Southwest Spotsylvania/Spotsylvania Courthouse (2045), King George County North/Brookfield (2045) x x x x 20 x x x x
Final Market 21
Final Market 22
Market Analysis Recap Origin Zones FAMPO region block groups Commuter transit index score Define larger origin zones (groups of block groups) Destination Zones FAMPO model external nodes along I-95/395 Workplace transit index score Travel Flows Convert FAMPO model TAZs to block groups Add vanpool and VRE flows Break up external nodes by activity center (if necessary) Market Determination Assign travel flows a transit mode split Aggregate block groups to larger origin zones Highlight highest ridership flows 23
Prioritization Methodology To prioritize the connections identified Category Description Max. Score Ridership Ridership estimates from market analysis 50 Operating & Capital Costs (Annualized) Annual cost estimates for operation and capital needs 40 Geographic Coverage / Diversity Rating of geographic coverage and service to minority / low-income populations 10 24
Next Steps Finalize Market Analysis Begin Transit Route Recommendations Determine potential routes using combinations from the market analysis Calculate service level need Detailed service plan 25