Aviation Trends Quarter 1 2013 Contents Introduction 2 1 Historical overview of traffic 3 a Terminal passengers b Commercial flights c Cargo tonnage 2 Terminal passengers at UK airports 7 3 Passenger flights to and from UK airports 8 4 Terminal passengers at UK airports by origin / destination 9 5 Air cargo tonnes carried to and from UK airports 10 6 All commercial flights to and from UK airports 11 7 Punctuality of passenger flights to and from UK airports 12 Did you know? 13 Notes 14 AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 1 of 14
Introduction Welcome to Aviation Trends Every quarter we update key figures which summarise the levels of activity at the UK s airports We have expanded Part 1 Historical overview of traffic and added a new Part 7, Punctuality of passenger flights to and from UK airports Each edition also includes a section entitled Did you know? which presents interesting facts derived from the various data sources available to the CAA; this time we look at average maximum queuing times passengers thought reasonable at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, and how their average perceived queuing times compare with these In this edition of Aviation Trends 1, we show a modest rise in the number of passenger and a decrease in the cargo tonnage and in the number of commercial flight handled at all UK airport, compared to the level in the same quarter last year The Aviation Trends series is available at wwwcaacouk/aviationtrends, part of Aviation Intelligence, the online home of the CAA s monthly airport and airline statistical publications Please note that historic numbers may be subject to minor change as the result of prior period adjustments 2 Due to rounding of figures, there may be an apparent slight discrepancy between the sum of the constituent items and the as shown For a list of all statistics available on the CAA website, see wwwcaacouk/statistics 1 Including traffic to and from North Sea oilrigs in Part 1 Historical overview of traffic 2 Also, in editions of Aviation Trends prior to quarter 4 2008, all figures included activity at Channel Islands and Isle of Man airports These islands are not formally part of the UK, and as we wish to present only the trends at UK airports, their figures are now excluded AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 2 of 14
1 Historical overview of traffic see note 5 on p14 a Terminal passengers c Cargo tonnage b Commercial flights Plotting quarterly data of terminal passengers, commercial flights and cargo tonnage shows both seasonal and annual trends in UK aviation activity These three time-series are shown on this page On pages 4 to 6, the first chart shows traffic in each quarter (on the right axis), and the percentage growth on the previous year s number in the same quarter (on the left axis) The second chart shows the rolling annual in each quarter (on the right axis), and the percentage growth of the rolling annual on the previous year s number in the same quarter (on the left axis) The highlighted data points are the annual traffic volumes and growth rates of the respective calendar years In quarter 1 2013, UK airports handled 449 million terminal passengers (an increase of 07%), 432 thousand commercial flights (a fall of 39%), and 598 thousand tonnes of cargo (a fall of 30%) compared to the same quarter last year AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 3 of 14
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Change of rolling annual on same quarter, previous year Terminal passengers (millions) a Terminal passengers 12% 260 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% % Change on same quarter, previous year (left) Rolling annual (right) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 4 of 14
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Change of rolling annual on same quarter, previous year Commercial flights (thousands) b Commercial flights 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% % Change on same quarter, previous year (left) Rolling annual (right) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 5 of 14
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Change of rolling annual on same quarter, previous year Cargo tonnage (thousands) c Cargo tonnage 15% 10% 5% 2,600 2,400 2,200 0% -5% 2,000 1,800 1,600-10% -15% % Change on same quarter, previous year (left) Rolling annual (right) 1,400 1,200 AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 6 of 14
2 Terminal passengers at UK airports CURRENT QUARTER see note 5 on p14 ROLLING YEAR Passengers (Millions) (Millions) Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 11 Q1 12 (Millions) (Millions) (Millions) London Airports 291 65% 285 64% 20% 1355 62% 1343 61% 09% - Scheduled 281 63% 275 62% 23% 1295 59% 1277 58% 14% - Charter 09 2% 10 2% -46% 59 3% 66 3% -97% Regional Airports 157 35% 159 36% -16% 845 38% 848 39% -04% - Scheduled 139 31% 140 32% -09% 710 32% 701 32% 13% - Charter 18 4% 19 4% -69% 134 6% 147 7% -84% All Airports 447 100% 444 100% 07% 2199 100% 2191 100% 04% - Scheduled 420 94% 415 94% 12% 2006 91% 1978 90% 14% - Charter 27 6% 29 6% -61% 194 9% 213 10% -88% UK terminal passengers are those travellers who board or disembark an aircraft on a commercial flight at a reporting UK airport The figures in the table and graph on this page therefore exclude transit passengers those who remain onboard aircraft which land at a UK airport and then continue on to another destination In quarter 1 2013, compared to the same quarter last year, London airports handled 20% more passengers, and regional airports saw a decrease of 16% On a rolling year basis, passenger numbers were 09% higher at London airports, and 04% lower at regional airports than the year before Across all UK airports, the number of passengers on scheduled flights was up 12% and down 61% on charter flights compared with the same quarter in 2012 AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 7 of 14
3 Passenger flights to and from UK airports see note 5 on p14 Number of flights CURRENT QUARTER ROLLING YEAR Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 11 Q1 12 London Airports 2185 54% 2242 53% -25% 9665 52% 9747 51% -08% - Scheduled 2133 53% 2187 52% -25% 9343 50% 9393 50% -05% - Charter 52 1% 55 1% -54% 322 2% 354 2% -90% Regional Airports 1840 46% 1959 47% -61% 8873 48% 9184 49% -34% - Scheduled 1712 43% 1838 44% -69% 8087 44% 8349 44% -31% - Charter 128 3% 121 3% 58% 786 4% 835 4% -59% All Airports 4025 100% 4201 100% -42% 1,8538 100% 1,8931 100% -21% - Scheduled 3845 96% 4025 96% -45% 1,7430 94% 1,7742 94% -18% - Charter 180 4% 176 4% 23% 1108 6% 1189 6% -68% The figures in this table are for commercial passenger flights and thus exclude air freighter flights (exclusively carrying cargo) Compared to quarter 1 2012, the number of passenger flights at all UK airports decreased by 42% in quarter 1 2013 There were 45% fewer scheduled flights and 23% more charter flights On the rolling year basis, the numbers of scheduled and charter flights were down 18% and 68% respectively There were 25% fewer flights at London airports and 61% fewer flights at regional airports in quarter 1 2013 than in the same period in 2012 On the rolling year basis, the number of flights was down 08% at London airports, and decreased by 34% at regional airports AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 8 of 14
2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 YOY Growth in Terminal Passengers 4 Terminal passengers at UK airports by origin / destination CURRENT QUARTER ROLLING YEAR see note 5 on p14 Passengers (millions) (millions) Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 11 Q1 12 (millions) (millions) (millions) Domestic 83 19% 85 19% -14% 372 17% 374 17% -05% - Scheduled 82 18% 84 19% -18% 368 17% 370 17% -06% - Charter 01 03% 01 02% 301% 04 02% 04 02% 175% Europe 247 55% 244 55% 13% 1317 60% 1307 60% 08% - Scheduled 229 51% 224 50% 22% 1162 53% 1134 52% 25% - Charter 18 4% 20 5% -85% 155 7% 173 8% -102% North America 40 9% 40 9% 04% 207 9% 206 9% 05% - Scheduled 40 9% 40 9% 03% 203 9% 202 9% 07% - Charter 00 00% 00 00% 169% 04 02% 04 02% -90% Rest of World 76 17% 75 17% 14% 303 14% 304 14% -03% - Scheduled 69 15% 68 15% 21% 272 12% 272 12% 01% - Charter 07 2% 08 2% -45% 31 1% 32 1% -41% Total 447 100% 444 100% 07% 2199 100% 2191 100% 04% - Scheduled 420 94% 415 94% 12% 2006 91% 1978 90% 14% - Charter 27 6% 29 6% -61% 194 9% 213 10% -88% 15% Domestic Europe North America Rest of World Compared to the same quarter last year, in quarter 1 2013, there have been increases in the number of passengers travelling to and from North America (04%), Europe (13%) and Rest of the world (14%) whereas there have been a decrease in the number of passengers travelling to and from domestic destinations (-14%) 10% 5% 0% -5% On the rolling year basis, the number of passengers was up 04% The numbers of passengers travelling to and from Europe and North America rose by 08% and 05% respectively, whereas domestic destinations and Rest of the world saw a decrease of 05% and 03% respectively -10% -15% -20% AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 9 of 14
5 Air cargo tonnes carried to and from UK airports see note 5 on p14 Tonnes Tonnes CURRENT QUARTER ROLLING YEAR Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 11 Q1 12 Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Cargo on cargo only flights 1927 32% 2034 33% -52% 8110 32% 8244 33% -16% - London 819 14% 806 13% 16% 3383 13% 3291 13% 28% - Regional 1108 19% 1227 20% -97% 4727 19% 4953 20% -46% Bellyhold cargo 4051 68% 4125 67% -18% 1,6952 68% 1,6879 67% 04% - London 3776 63% 3878 63% -26% 1,5806 63% 1,5866 63% -04% - Regional 275 5% 247 4% 112% 1145 5% 1012 4% 132% Total cargo 5978 100% 6158 100% -29% 2,5062 100% 2,5123 100% -02% - London 4595 77% 4684 76% -19% 1,9189 77% 1,9158 76% 02% - Regional 1382 23% 1474 24% -62% 5872 23% 5965 24% -15% Air cargo freight and mail is transported in and out of the UK on air freighters and in the bellyhold of passenger aircraft Compared to the same period in 2012, in quarter 1 2013, cargo tonnage at all UK airports was down 29% It decreased by 19% at London airports and by 62% at Regional airports Air freighter cargo tonnage dropped by 52% and bellyhold cargo tonnage by 18% compared with the same quarter last year On a rolling year basis, cargo tonnage handled at UK airports was down 02% compared with the year before AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 10 of 14
6 All commercial flights to and from UK airports see note 5 on p14 CURRENT QUARTER ROLLING YEAR Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 11 Q1 12 Air freighter 132 3% 131 3% 10% 548 3% 531 3% 32% - London 35 1% 35 1% -02% 141 1% 142 1% -08% - Regional 97 2% 96 2% 14% 407 2% 389 2% 47% Passenger flights 4025 97% 4201 97% -42% 1,8538 97% 1,8931 97% -21% - London 2185 53% 2242 52% -25% 9665 51% 9747 50% -08% - Regional 1840 44% 1959 45% -61% 8873 46% 9184 47% -34% Total flights 4157 100% 4332 100% -40% 1,9086 100% 1,9462 100% -19% - London 2220 53% 2277 53% -25% 9806 51% 9889 51% -08% - Regional 1937 47% 2055 47% -57% 9280 49% 9573 49% -31% The number of commercial flights at reporting UK airports is a measure of commercial aviation activity in the UK It includes both passenger and cargo flights, but excludes military flights, general aviation and aircraft that pass through UK airspace without landing In quarter 1 2013, the number of commercial flights in the UK was down 40% compared to the same quarter in 2012 The number of air freighter flights increased by 10%, and that of passenger flights dropped by 42% London airports saw a decrease of 25% whereas regional airports experienced a drop of 57% On a rolling year basis, the number of flights was down 19% compared with the same period the year before AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 11 of 14
7 Punctuality of passenger flights to and from UK airports see note 6 on p14 Matched flights, flights on-time, average delay (mins) CURRENT QUARTER ROLLING YEAR Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Q2 12 Q1 13 Q2 11 Q1 12 % ontime Avg delay (mins) % ontime London Airports 2157 762% 139 2229 813% 111 9528 775% 129 9683 797% 115 - Heathrow 1109 736% 150 1151 792% 122 4640 749% 140 4729 778% 123 - Gatwick 491 760% 147 514 827% 110 2369 764% 141 2410 794% 124 - Stansted 261 801% 113 266 840% 90 1202 825% 99 1246 843% 88 - Luton 136 789% 125 140 823% 106 674 798% 122 677 786% 125 - London City 159 861% 82 160 874% 71 642 878% 71 622 875% 71 Regional Airports 922 802% 123 979 835% 104 4468 808% 121 4499 812% 117 - Manchester 325 756% 147 340 781% 131 1569 767% 148 1565 766% 145 - Birmingham 165 814% 124 178 860% 95 818 830% 109 821 844% 103 - Glasgow 150 839% 102 155 870% 90 711 827% 110 692 834% 109 - Edinburgh 198 846% 92 220 859% 85 954 837% 96 996 835% 97 - Newcastle 83 782% 144 86 874% 81 416 820% 120 425 837% 103 All 10 Airports 3079 774% 134 3209 820% 109 1,3996 785% 126 1,4182 802% 116 Avg delay (mins) % ontime Avg delay (mins) % ontime Avg delay (mins) Punctuality of arriving and departing passenger flights are measured by comparing actual and planned times of operation The data covers five London airports and five regional airports The on-time performance is defined as the proportion of flights arriving or departing early or up to 15 minutes late It is calculated from the scheduled on-stand time, the reported runway time and the expected time an aircraft takes to travel between a stand and the runway In quarter 1 2013, 774 all measured flights were on time, which was down 46 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year Average delay per flight was 134 minutes, compared with 109 minutes in quarter 1 2012 Across all the London and regional airports, the percentage of on-time flights dropped and the average delay increased AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 12 of 14
Queue time (minutes) Did you know? Perceived queuing times at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted To help inform the CAA s initial proposals for economic regulation of airports for the period from April 2014, the CAA undertook research at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted to study passengers airport experience Over 2,800 passengers were invited to give their views on their how satisfied they were with various airport services, the time they spent in queuing, and areas of improvement they would like to see at the airport Queuing times for the following processes were studied Passengers were asked their opinion on reasonable queue times, and how their perceived experience compared with these Arriving passengers Departing passengers Connecting passengers Immigration, baggage reclaim Check-in, bag drop, security Security The chart on the right shows the average maximum reasonable queuing times and average perceived queuing times (in minutes) for all arriving and departing respondents at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted For departing passengers, the number of responses is larger for security than those for check in and bag drop, because some passengers checked-in online before arriving at the airport, and some carried only hand luggage and did not need to go through bag drop Average maximum reasonable vs average perceived queuing times, arriving and departing passengers 50 40 30 20 10 0 138 128 64 174 48 151 137 Note: N = weighted sample sizes Observations: 1 Average perceived queuing times for all processes were shorter than average maximum reasonable queue times 2 Average perceived queuing times were just over 11 minutes for arriving and connecting passengers, and 20 minutes for departing passengers The full research report, titled CAA passenger research: satisfaction with the airport experience, Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, is available at http://wwwcaacouk/cap1044 67 64 69 max perceived max perceived Arriving pax Departing pax Security N = 1066 Bag drop N = 333 Check in N = 522 Baggage reclaim N = 1089 Immigration N = 1091 AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 13 of 14
Notes 1 The Civil Aviation Authority data is prepared with the co-operation of the United Kingdom airport and airline operators The assistance from all these organisations is gratefully acknowledged 2 The information contained in this report has been compiled from various sources and it is not possible for the CAA to check and verify whether it is accurate and correct, nor does the CAA undertake to do so Consequently the CAA cannot accept any liability for any financial loss caused by any person's reliance on it 3 More detailed data are available from the Civil Aviation Authority website at the following address - wwwcaacouk/aviationintelligence 4 The CAA is the UK's specialist aviation regulator whose regulatory activities range from ensuring the aviation industry meets the highest safety standards to preventing holidaymakers from being stranded abroad because of tour operator insolvency 5 Explanatory notes for Parts 1 to 6: Notes Applicable to Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 Tables and charts are generated from data in CAA Airport Statistics All data excludes the activity of Air Taxis those aircraft with maximum take-off weights of less than 15 tonnes flying non-scheduled services London airports are Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, London City and Southend Regional Airports are all other UK airports, a category which excludes the Channel Island Airports Jersey, Guernsey, and Alderney and the Isle of Man, which are not formally part of the UK Exclude traffic to and from North Sea oilrigs Terminal passengers are those commencing their journey or connecting between flights at the airport, but exclude transit passengers who do not disembark Cargo comprises mail and freight For the purposes of this report, World Areas are defined as follows: Domestic - the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man (these numbers are not adjusted for the double counting which occurs when both airports report arriving and departing passengers to the CAA); Europe - geographical Europe including Turkey and the former Soviet Union states; North America - USA, Canada and Puerto Rico; Rest of World - all other countries A destination is defined to be where a passenger boards or alights the aircraft on which they arrived or departed from the reporting airport; it is not necessarily the first or last stop of a multi-sector flight 6 Explanatory notes for Part 7: In these punctuality data, 'delay' is recorded as the difference between an aircraft's scheduled and actual arrival or departure time at the airport terminal It does not therefore measure any delay, such as that due to congestion, which has already been allowed for in the planned flight times of the service Average delay is the minutes of delay recorded by all flights (with early arriving flights counted as zero delay) divided by the number of flights monitored On-time performance and delay is calculated from the scheduled on-stand time (provided by Airport Co-ordination Ltd), the reported runway time (provided by the airport) and the expected time an aircraft takes to travel between a stand and the runway (taxiing time calculated from historic data) The use of average taxi times is sufficient for calculating an aggregate level of on-time performance, but would not be suitable for reviewing the punctuality of an individual flight The statistics cover only those flights which were operated and do not cover those flights which were cancelled AviationTrends_Q1_2013 Page 14 of 14