WHO CARES ABOUT 15 MILLION URBAN VOTERS?

WHO CARES ABOUT 15 MILLION URBAN VOTERS?

CONTENTS About the Contributing Research Bodies 1 Who Cares About 15 Million Urban Voters 3 s Population 6 s Social Capital 11 s Economy 18 Appendix One: City Profiles 37 Appendix Two: Extra Stuff 44 Acknowledgments 65

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTING RESEARCH BODIES 1

2

WHO CARES ABOUT 15 MILLION URBAN VOTERS? CMA Plain language definition: Area consisting of one or more neighbouring municipalities situated around a major urban core. A census metropolitan area must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more live in the urban core. A census agglomeration must have an urban core population of at least 10,000. From http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/ref/dict/ geo009-eng.cfm Notes on the geographic areas used in this report: To be a metropolitan area, a region had to be defined as a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) by Statistics (see sidebar). Small Cities are those defined by Statistics as a Census Agglomeration (CA). Rural is not in a CMA or CA. The central city of a CMA is that city with the largest population in the CMA. If a second city is within 67% of the population of the largest city, then that second city is also included. In, this only includes the cities of Oshawa/Whitby, Vancouver/Surrey, and Saanich/Victoria. Finally, suburban areas are within a CMA but not in a central city. Occasionally, detail on central cities and smaller cities was not available. When that was the case, separate information is only presented for metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan (small cities and rural area). Notes on the data sources used in this report: Individual data sources are identified for each chart or graph. The vast majority of the data used in this report is from Statistics. Much of it is summarized data from the 2006 Census (long-form). Election-specific data is from the Pundit s Guide (http://www.punditsguide.ca/). Starbucks and Tim Hortons data was previously purchased from AGG data. All data was accessed and analyzed by researchers at the Martin Prosperity Institute. 3

Gross Domestic Product Saguenay St. John's Edmonton Quebec Sherbrooke Halifax Moncton Saskatoon Trois-Rivieres Saint John Vancouver Kelowna Abbotsford Calgary Regina Winnipeg Ottawa Montreal Victoria Thunder Bay Greater Sudbury Barrie Kingston Small Cities Rural Kitchener Brantford Guelph Toronto Peterborough Oshawa St.Catharines-Niagara Windsor London Hamilton Data Source: Statistics Daily Gross domestic product by industry, March 31, 2011 and MPI analysis using personal income CMA Detailed definition: A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a large urban area (known as the urban core). A CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more must live in the urban core. A CA must have an urban core population of at least 10,000. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree of integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. If the population of the urban core of a CA declines below 10,000, the CA is retired. However, once an area becomes a CMA, it is retained as a CMA even if its total population declines below 100,000 or the population of its urban core falls below 50,000. The urban areas in the CMA or CA that are not contiguous to the urban core are called the urban fringe. Rural areas in the CMA or CA are called the rural fringe. When a CA has an urban core of at least 50,000, it is subdivided into census tracts. Census tracts are maintained for the CA even if the population of the urban core subsequently falls below 50,000. All CMAs are subdivided into census tracts. More information on Census metropolitan area (CMA) and census agglomeration (CA): http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/ref/dict/geo009a-eng.cfm From http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/ref/dict/geo009-eng.cfm 4

GDP (Millions of Dollars) Central Cities 43.2% Suburbs 29.1% Small Cities 12.0% Rural 15.7% 72.3% $910,390 $543,967 $366,423 $151,102 $197,692 $1,259,184 Data Source: Statistics Daily, "Gross domestic product by industry", March 31, 2011 and MPI analysis using personal income How many people live in Central Cities 41.2% Suburbs 26.8% Small Cities 13.0% Rural 18.9% 68.0% 21,508,575 13,029,220 8,479,355 4,122,982 5,981,340 31,612,897 Data Source: Statistics 2006 Note: Total for is sum, Small Cities, Rural. Metro Area total is separately divided between Central Cities and Suburbs. 5

s Population

Total Number of Eligible Voters (Canadian Citizens age 18 and over) Saguenay St. John's Quebec Halifax Edmonton Sherbrooke Moncton Saskatoon Trois-Rivieres Saint John Vancouver Victoria Kelowna Abbotsford Calgary Regina Winnipeg Thunder Bay Ottawa Montreal Greater Sudbury Barrie Kingston Small Cities Rural Kitchener Brantford Guelph Toronto Peterborough Oshawa St.Catharines-Niagara Windsor London Hamilton Data Source: Statistics 2006 Eligible Voters (Canadian Citizens age 18 and over) Central Cities 40.7% Suburbs 26.2% Small Cities 13.6% Rural 19.5% 66.9% 15,298,330 9,313,345 5,984,985 3,105,940 4,471,610 22,875,880 Data Source: Statistics 2006 7

Population 25+ with Only High School 51.7% 2,598,525 Central Cities 40.3% Suburbs 11.4% Small Cities 13.9% Rural 34.4% 2,025,390 573,135 697,290 1,729,595 5,025,410 Data Source: Statistics 2006 Bachelor's Degree or Above Central Cities 53.3% Suburbs 29.3% Small Cities 8.2% Rural 9.2% 82.6% 3,623,900 2,338,125 1,285,775 359,550 402,515 4,385,965 Data Source: Statistics 2006 An Earned Doctorate Central Cities 63.3% Suburbs 24.1% Small Cities 6.1% Rural 6.4% 87.5% 153,670 111,255 42,415 10,800 11,180 175,650 Data Source: Statistics 2006 8

Life Stage Children (0 19 years) Central Cities 38.6% Suburbs 28.9% Small Cities 13.9% Rural 18.6% 67.5% 5,211,250 2,981,975 2,229,275 1,075,785 1,433,295 7,720,330 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Young Adults (20 24 years) Central Cities 46.5% Suburbs 25.3% Small Cities 13.9% Rural 14.4% 71.8% 1,493,520 966,595 526,925 288,280 298,585 2,080,385 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Young Professionals/Early Career (25 34 years) Central Cities 47.6% Suburbs 25.5% Small Cities 12.8% Rural 14.1% 73.1% 2,928,550 1,907,520 1,021,030 512,205 565,055 4,005,810 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 9

Prime Earning Age (35 54 years) Central Cities 40.7% Suburbs 28.1% Small Cities 13.7% Rural 17.6% 68.8% 6,739,325 3,991,160 2,748,165 1,337,735 1,719,565 9,796,625 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Empy Nesters (55 64 years) Central Cities 38.2% Suburbs 26.1% Small Cities 14.7% Rural 20.9% 64.4% 2,364,685 1,404,565 960,120 541,895 767,910 3,674,490 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Retirees (65+ years) Central Cities 41.3% Suburbs 22.7% Small Cities 15.6% Rural 20.5% 63.9% 2,771,190 1,788,360 982,830 677,010 887,050 4,335,250 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 10

s Social Capital

How many people are Visible Minority Central Cities 61.4% Suburbs 34.5% Small Cities 2.6% Rural 1.5% 95.9% 4,862,310 3,114,100 1,748,210 129,705 76,075 5,068,090 Data Source: Statistics 2006 Canadian Citizens Central Cities 40.0% Suburbs 26.8% Small Cities 13.5% Rural 19.7% 66.8% 19,683,750 11,785,465 7,898,285 3,978,485 5,817,930 29,480,165 Data Source: Statistics 2006 12

How many people are Immigrants Central Cities 56.4% Suburbs 33.7% Small Cities 4.9% Rural 5.1% 90.0% 5,569,630 3,487,060 2,082,570 302,910 314,410 6,186,950 Data Source: Statistics 2006 Immigrant Population Saguenay St. John's Edmonton Quebec Sherbrooke Halifax Moncton Saskatoon Trois-Rivieres Saint John Vancouver Kelowna Abbotsford Calgary Regina Winnipeg Ottawa Montreal Victoria Thunder Bay Greater Sudbury Barrie Kingston Small Cities Rural Kitchener Brantford Guelph Toronto Peterborough Oshawa St.Catharines-Niagara Windsor London Hamilton Data Source: Statistics 2006 13

Number of Ridings Ottawa Barrie Oshawa Sherbrooke Vancouver Edmonton Toronto Quebec Victoria Calgary Winnipeg Regina Hamilton Montreal Charlottetown St. John's Moncton Halifax Terr. BC AB SK MB ON QC NB PE NS NL Guelph Kitchener Urban Ridings London All Other RIdings St. Catharines Windsor Data Source: Wikipedia Ridings in with MPI Analysis Crimes Violent Crimes 91.2% Rest of 8.8% 9,850 951 10,801 Data Source: Statistics 2006 Property Crimes 93.5% Rest of 6.5% 51,644 3,588 55,232 Data Source: Statistics 2006 14

How many voters turned out in General election Date held Turnout (10%) Eligible Voters Voted Seats 58.8% 2008 2008-10-14 HISTORICAL LOW 23,677,639 13,929,093 308 64.7% 2006 2006-01-23 23,054,615 14,908,703 308 60.9% 2004 2004-06-28 22,466,621 13,683,570 308 61.2% 2000 2000-11-27 21,243,473 12,997,185 301 67.0% 1997 1997-06-02 19,663,478 13,174,698 301 Data Source: 2011 Pundit s Guide (Pundits Guide to Canadian Federal Elections, Alice Funke). Data accessed on Wednesday, April 6th, 2011. Voter dilution in Provinces (Urban) New Brunswick 1.24 1.21 1.21 Quebec 0.97 0.97 0.97 Ontario 0.90 0.92 0.91 Manitoba 1.26 1.24 1.24 Saskatchewan 1.38 1.38 1.38 Alberta 0.87 0.88 0.87 British Columbia 0.84 0.88 0.87 Newfoundland 1.07 1.26 1.26 Prince Edward Island 2.69 2.69 2.69 Nova Scotia 1.07 1.09 1.09 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Visible Minorities Voters Nonvisible Minorities Voters All Voters Data Source: Pal, Michael & Sujit Choudhry. Is Every Ballot Equal? Visible-Minority Vote Dilution in. 13 (1). January 2007. 15

Voter dilution in Provinces (Rural) New Brunswick 1.40 1.35 1.35 Quebec 1.04 1.08 1.08 Ontario 1.05 1.05 1.05 Manitoba 1.27 1.28 1.28 Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 1.49 1.51 1.51 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.28 1.27 1.27 2.94 2.94 2.94 1.19 1.20 1.19 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Visible Minorities Voters Nonvisible Minorities Voters All Voters Data Source: Pal, Michael & Sujit Choudhry. Is Every Ballot Equal? Visible-Minority Vote Dilution in. 13 (1). January 2007. Voter Dilution Definition: Although all adult Canadian citizens have the right to vote, the actual worth of their votes depends entirely on where they live. This is due to the manner in which seats in the House of Commons are distributed within and among the provinces and territories. s constitution guarantees a minimum number of seats to each province and territory, but this structure is inconsistent with where population growth is occurring in. Provinces with populations that are growing significantly have become underrepresented, while rural areas are overrepresented. While this inequity affects all Canadians, its impact on minority groups is significant. Members of visible minority communities overwhelmingly reside in urban areas. Therefore, if fast-growing urban areas are becoming increasingly underrepresented, then minority groups, most of whom reside in cities, are particularly at risk of being underrepresented. The graph above shows the comparative weight of a single federal vote in each province. For instance, a single vote in Saskatchewan carries more weight than a single vote in Alberta, since Alberta s population has increased significantly in recent years in comparison to Saskatchewan. Source: Michael Pal and Sujit Choudhry. Is Every Ballot Equal? Visible-Minority Vote Dilution in. Institute for Research on Public Policy, January 2007. Available from http://www.irpp.org/choices/archive/vol13no1.pdf. 16

Core Urban Ridings Québec Hochelaga, QC Jeanne Le Ber, QC Laurier Sainte-Marie, QC Québec, QC Rosemont Le Petite-Patrie, QC Bourassa, QC LaSalle Émard, QC Mount Royal, QC Papineau, QC Saint-Léonard Saint-Michel, QC Westmount Ville-Marie, QC Outremont, QC Ontario Beaches East York Davenport Ottawa Vanier Parkdale High Park St. Paul's Toronto Centre Hamilton Centre Ottawa Centre Toronto Danforth Trinity Spadina Manitoba Winnipeg South Centre Winnipeg Centre Winnipeg North Alberta Calgary Centre Calgary Centre-North Edmonton Centre Edmonton East Edmonton Strathcona British Columbia Vancouver Centre Vancouver East Vancouver Kingsway Population Density 5,936 5,374 7,828 2,807 9,624 6,293 4,777 4,299 11,224 4,990 6,273 6,385 6,167 8,047 2,605 6,384 6,946 8,672 3,092 3,124 3,987 4,437 2,303 2,794 2,268 2,957 2,388 2,188 2,564 1,257 7,731 5,086 5,705 Bloc Québecois Conservative Liberal New Democratic Party Data Source: Core Urban Ridings. "Pundit Queries." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from http://www.punditsguide.ca/punditqueries/ on Tuesday, April 5th, 2011. 17

s Economy

Occupation Classes Creative Class Central Cities 47.4% Suburbs 30.2% Small Cities 11.5% Rural 11.0% 77.5% 3,776,148 2,307,038 1,469,110 560,078 535,068 4,871,293 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Service Class Central Cities 41.2% Suburbs 25.9% Small Cities 13.1% Rural 19.8% 67.2% 5,238,173 3,215,683 2,022,490 1,017,890 1,542,490 7,798,553 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Working Class Central Cities 33.3% Suburbs 27.3% Small Cities 25.8% Rural 13.6% 60.6% 2,241,420 1,232,780 1,008,640 955,885 502,640 3,699,945 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 19

Farming, Fishing, Forestry Class 21.4% 105,065 Central Cities 19.2% Suburbs 2.1% Small Cities 15.2% Rural 63.4% 94,585 10,480 74,620 311,735 491,420 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 20

Transit to Work Car, Truck, Van, as driver Car, Truck, Van, as Passenger 7.4% Public Transit 15.1% Walked 5.7% 69.4% 7,204,570 770,780 1,566,855 594,145 Bicycle 1.4% 147,405 Motorcycle 0.1% Taxicab 0.2% Other Method 0.7% Total 13,975 20,705 68,855 10,387,290 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Central Cities Car, Truck, Van, as driver Car, Truck, Van, as Passenger 7.4% Public Transit 18.8% Walked 7.1% 63.7% 3,982,385 463,345 1,177,660 445,495 Bicycle 1.8% 113,015 Motorcycle 0.1% Taxicab 0.2% Other Method 0.7% Total 8,375 15,425 42,725 6,248,425 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 21

Suburbs Car, Truck, Van, as driver Car, Truck, Van, as Passenger 7.4% Public Transit 9.4% Walked 3.6% 77.9% 3,222,185 307,435 389,195 148,650 Bicycle 0.8% 34,390 Motorcycle 0.1% Taxicab 0.1% Other Method 0.6% Total 5,600 5,280 26,130 4,138,865 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Small Cities Car, Truck, Van, as driver Car, Truck, Van, as Passenger 8.8% Public Transit 1.9% Walked 7.1% 79.2% 1,495,655 165,685 36,350 133,495 Bicycle 1.3% 24,460 Motorcycle 0.2% Taxicab 0.4% Other Method 1.1% Total 3,010 7,835 21,175 1,887,665 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 22

Rural Car, Truck, Van, as driver Car, Truck, Van, as Passenger 8.1% Public Transit 0.8% Walked 8.7% 79.7% 1,944,105 196,680 19,515 211,650 Bicycle 1.0% 23,650 Motorcycle 0.1% Taxicab 0.2% Other Method 1.5% Total 3,100 3,695 36,900 2,439,295 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis All of Car, Truck, Van, as driver Car, Truck, Van, as Passenger 7.7% Public Transit 11.0% Walked 6.4% 72.3% 10,644,330 1,133,145 1,622,720 939,290 Bicycle 1.3% 195,515 Motorcycle 0.1% Taxicab 0.2% Other Method 0.9% Total 20,085 32,235 126,930 14,714,250 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 23

Total Income Saguenay St. John's Edmonton Quebec Sherbrooke Halifax Moncton Saskatoon Trois-Rivieres Saint John Vancouver Kelowna Abbotsford Calgary Regina Winnipeg Ottawa Montreal Victoria Thunder Bay Greater Sudbury Barrie Kingston Small Cities Rural Kitchener Brantford Guelph Toronto Peterborough Oshawa St.Catharines-Niagara Windsor London Hamilton Data Source: Statistics 2006 Total Income (Millions of Dollars) in 2005 of population 15 years and over Central Cities 43.2% Suburbs 29.1% Small Cities 12.0% Rural 15.7% 72.3% $658,933 $393,668 $265,265 $109,274 $142,822 $911,028 Data Source: Statistics 2006 24

Jobs and Job Growth March 2011 Employed Central Cities 42.5% Suburbs 27.7% Small Cities 13.0% Rural 16.7% 70.2% 12,096,976 7,327,968 4,769,007 2,246,904 2,884,220 17,228,100 Data Source: Statistics, Labour Force Survey, March 2011 with MPI analysis March 2011 Unemployed Central Cities 45.6% Suburbs 29.7% Small Cities 13.0% Rural 11.6% 75.3% 1,081,110 654,902 426,207 187,154 166,736 1,435,000 Data Source: Statistics, Labour Force Survey, March 2011 with MPI analysis Job Growth March 2010 March 2011 Central Cities 44.9% Suburbs 29.2% Small Cities 13.0% Rural 12.8% 74.2% 226,233 137,045 89,188 39,778 38,988 305,000 Data Source: Statistics, Labour Force Survey, March 2011 with MPI analysis 25

Job Growth 2009 2010 113.9% 259,601 Central Cities Suburbs 44.9% Small Cities & Rural -13.9% 69.0% 157,258 102,343-31,701 227,900 Data Source: Statistics, Labour Force Survey, March 2011 with MPI analysis How many people work in All Industries Central Cities 41.7% Suburbs 27.7% Small Cities 16.7% Rural 13.9% 69.4% 11,694,795 7,024,540 4,670,255 2,820,095 2,346,295 16,861,185 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 39.7% 94,765 Central Cities 29.2% Suburbs 10.5% Small Cities 25.9% Rural 34.5% 69,805 24,960 61,740 82,305 238,810 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 26

Construction Central Cities 36.1% Suburbs 28.2% Small Cities 16.4% Rural 19.2% 64.4% 688,305 386,410 301,895 175,835 204,955 1,069,095 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Central Cities 62.4% Suburbs 31.4% Small Cities 11.5% Rural 5.0% 83.5% 936,880 584,360 352,520 129,355 56,210 1,122,445 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Educational Services Central Cities 45.1% Suburbs 26.4% Small Cities 17.1% Rural 11.5% 71.5% 822,195 518,900 303,295 196,480 131,860 1,150,535 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 27

Health Care and Social Assistance Central Cities 43.2% Suburbs 25.0% Small Cities 19.0% Rural 12.8% 68.2% 1,170,130 740,655 429,475 326,700 219,425 1,716,255 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 30.5% 250,220 Central Cities 19.1% Suburbs 11.4% Small Cities 6.7% Rural 62.7% 156,550 93,670 55,300 514,360 819,880 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Manufacturing Central Cities 37.2% Suburbs 30.1% Small Cities 17.6% Rural 15.1% 67.3% 1,349,435 746,035 603,400 353,820 302,725 2,005,980 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 28

Retail Trade Central Cities 40.6% Suburbs 28.2% Small Cities 18.5% Rural 12.7% 68.8% 1,318,960 778,350 540,610 355,240 242,970 1,917,170 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Information and Cultural Industries 84.3% 351,725 Central Cities 54.6% Suburbs 29.6% Small Cities 11.4% Rural 4.3% 227,995 123,730 47,630 17,965 417,320 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Finance and Insurance Central Cities 48.0% Suburbs 34.3% Small Cities 12.6% Rural 5.1% 82.3% 567,350 330,780 236,570 86,800 35,060 689,210 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 29

How many companies are in Central Cities 41.1% Suburbs 27.1% Small Cities 12.0% Rural 19.7% 68.3% 1,629,635 981,329 645,724 285,742 470,936 2,386,313 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 42.8% 8,318 Central Cities 33.3% Suburbs 9.4% Small Cities 19.5% Rural 37.7% 6,474 1,834 3,794 7,314 19,426 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Construction Central Cities 36.5% Suburbs 30.7% Small Cities 13.0% Rural 19.7% 67.3% 182,274 98,862 83,085 35,282 53,377 270,933 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 30

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Central Cities 51.8% Suburbs 30.8% Small Cities 8.1% Rural 9.1% 82.8% 267,440 167,470 99,466 26,250 29,470 323,160 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Educational Services Central Cities 48.2% Suburbs 28.3% Small Cities 11.1% Rural 12.2% 76.7% 18,841 11,836 6,959 2,735 3,003 24,579 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Health Care and Social Assistance Central Cities 48.1% Suburbs 22.7% Small Cities 14.6% Rural 14.5% 70.9% 75,975 51,561 24,299 15,632 15,577 107,184 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 31

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Central Cities 44.1% Suburbs 24.0% Small Cities 12.0% Rural 19.7% 68.3% 27,532 17,784 9,688 4,833 7,963 40,328 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Manufacturing Central Cities 37.0% Suburbs 32.8% Small Cities 11.4% Rural 18.8% 69.9% 64,640 34,242 30,306 10,525 17,356 92,521 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Retail Trade Central Cities 40.3% Suburbs 25.4% Small Cities 14.7% Rural 19.5% 65.8% 139,612 85,518 53,891 31,263 41,369 212,244 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 32

Information and Cultural Industries Central Cities 61.5% Suburbs 22.2% Small Cities 6.5% Rural 9.6% 83.9% 29,024 21,278 7,682 2,253 3,316 34,593 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Finance and Insurance Central Cities 50.4% Suburbs 27.4% Small Cities 10.6% Rural 11.5% 77.9% 99,441 64,308 35,014 13,533 14,714 127,688 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 33

Farming Total Cows 7.8% Rest of 92.2% 475,562 5,602,058 6,077,620 Data Source: Statistics : 2006 Census of Agriculture with MPI analysis Beef Cows 5.6% 285,334 Rest of 94.4% 4,796,262 5,081,596 Data Source: Statistics : 2006 Census of Agriculture with MPI analysis Dairy Cows 15.5% 154,021 Rest of 84.5% 842,003 996,024 Data Source: Statistics : 2006 Census of Agriculture with MPI analysis Total Pigs 5.3% 796,965 Rest of 94.7% 14,246,167 15,043,132 Data Source: Statistics : 2006 Census of Agriculture with MPI analysis 34

Total Hens and Chickens 19.7% 24,634,166 Rest of 80.3% 100,680,627 125,314,793 Data Source: Statistics : 2006 Census of Agriculture with MPI analysis Total Farms (Crops) 14.6% 77,595 Rest of 85.4% 452,123 529,718 Data Source: Statistics : 2006 Census of Agriculture with MPI analysis 35

Tim Hortons Central Cities 41.1% Suburbs 21.6% Small Cities 13.1% Rural 24.2% 62.7% 2,185 1,432 753 455 844 3,484 Data Source: AggData, 2009 Starbucks Central Cities 61.6% Suburbs 26.7% Small Cities 9.6% Rural 2.1% 88.2% 916 639 277 100 22 1,038 Data Source: AggData,2009 36

Appendix One: City Profiles

WHO CARES ABOUT 15 MILLION URBAN VOTERS? The following highlights some key city-specific issues including: infrastructure, education, public transportation, immigrant settlement programs, housing and redistribution initiatives that ought to be considered as key factors that will influence the country s future prosperity and the well being of our population. The Urban Agenda: A Toronto Perspective 38

Halifax 39

40 Kingston Montreal

Ottawa 41

42 Quebec City

Waterloo 43

Appendix Two: Extra Stuff

Core Aboriginal Ridings (Federal) in the 2008 General Election Newfoundland and Labrador Québec Abitibi Baie-James Nunavik Eeyou Manicouagan Ontario Kenora Algoma Manitoulin Kapuskasing Thunder Bay Superior North Thunder Bay Rainy River Timmins James Bay Population Density Labrador 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 Bloc Québecois Conservative Liberal New Democratic Party Manitoba Dauphin Swan River Marquette Selkirk Interlake Provencher Brandon Souris Churchill Winnipeg North Winnipeg Centre Elmwood Transcona Alberta Fort McMurray Athabasca Westlock St. Paul Peace River Macleod Yellowhead Wetaskiwin Edmonton East Saskatchewan Prince Albert Regina Qu'Appelle Battlefords Lloydminster Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar Saskatoon Wanuskewin Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River Yorkton Melville British Columbia Chilliwack Fraser Canyon Cariboo Prince George Prince George Peace River Skeena Bulkley Valley Nanaimo Cowichan 1 2 4 19,836 0 2,267 2,791 1,696 0 4 1 3 1 7 50 5 5 2 7 7 0 2 3 1 0 0 29 Northwest Territories Western Arctic 0 Yukon Territory Yukon 0 *defined as having >7.5 Aboriginal population. Data Source: Aboriginal Ridings (>7.5% Aboriginal identification. "Pundit Queries." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from http://www.punditsguide.ca/regions/?qry=4on Wednesday, April 6th, 2011. 45

Top 10% Federal Ridings by Population Density in the 2008 General Election Québec Rosemont La Petite-Patrie Laurier Sainte-Marie Hochelaga Jeanne-Le Ber Ahuntsic Saint-Lambert Bourassa Westmount Ville-Marie Saint-Léonard Saint-Michel LaSalle Émard Mount Royal Outremont Ontario Toronto Centre Davenport St. Paul's Parkdale High Park Beaches East York Eglinton Lawrence York South Weston Mississauga East Cooksville Don Valley East Willowdale Scarborough Centre Scarborough Agincourt Trinity Spadina Toronto Danforth British Columbia Vancouver Centre Vancouver South Vancouver Kingsway Vancouver East Population Density 9,624 7,828 5,936 5,374 5,288 3,502 6,293 6,273 4,990 4,777 4,299 6,385 8,672 8,047 6,946 6,384 6,167 4,586 4,402 4,367 4,061 4,042 3,724 4,475 4,437 3,987 7,731 4,455 5,705 5,086 Bloc Québecois Conservative Liberal New Democratic Party Source: Top 10% ridings by population density. "Search the Database." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from: http://www.punditsguide.ca/regions/?qry=9 on Wednesday, April 6th, 2011. 46

Top 10% Ridings by Sparsest Population (Population/Area_KM 2 ) (Federal) in the 2008 General Election Newfoundland and Labrador Québec Abitibi Baie-James Nunavik Eeyou Manicouagan Ontario Kenora Timmins James Bay Algoma Manitoulin Kapuskasing Population Density Labrador 0 0 0 0 0 1 Bloc Québecois Conservative Liberal New Democratic Party Manitoba Churchill 0 Saskatchewan Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River Cypress Hills Grasslands Alberta Fort McMurray Athabasca Peace River British Columbia Skeena Bulkley Valley Prince George Peace River 0 0 1 1 0 0 Northwest Territories Western Arctic 0 Yukon Territory Yukon 0 Nunavut Nunavut 0 Source: Top 10% Ridings by Sparsest Population (Population/Area-km^2). "Pundit's Queries." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from: http://www.punditsguide.ca/regions/?qry=10 on Wednesday, April 6th, 2011. 47

Ridings with the Highest Voter Turnout in the 2008 GE Rank Province Riding Party % Vote % Turnout 1 QC Verchères Les Patriotes BQ 51% 72% 2 PE Malpeque Liberal 44% 71% 3 ON Ottawa Orléans Conservative 45% 71% 4 BC Saanich Gulf Islands Conservative 43% 70% 5 QC Louis Hébert Bloc Québecois 36% 70% 6 PE Cardigan Liberal 53% 70% 7 ON Nepean Carleton Conservative 56% 69% 8 NB Beauséjour Liberal 47% 69% 9 ON Carleton Mississippi Mills Conservative 58% 69% 10 ON Ottawa Centre New Democratic Party 40% 69% Source: Ridings with the highest turnout. "Search the Database." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from http://www.punditsguide.ca/elections_e.php?qry=11 on Thursday, April 7th, 2011. Ridings with the Lowest Voter Turnout in the 2008 GE Rank Province Riding Party % Vote % Turnout 1 AB Fort McMurray Athabasca Conservative 67% 36% 2 NL Labrador Liberal 70% 39% 3 MB Churchill New Democratic Party 47% 40% 4 NL Random Burin St. George's Liberal 54% 41% 5 NL Bonavista Gander Grand Falls Windsor Liberal 70% 41% 6 AB Calgary East Conservative 66% 42% 7 MB Winnipeg North New Democratic Party 63% 43% 8 MB Winnipeg Centre New Democratic Party 49% 43% 9 AB Peace River Conservative 70% 44% 10 NL Humber St. Barbe Baie Verte Liberal 68% 44% Source: Ridings with the lowest turnout. "Search the Database." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from: http://www.punditsguide.ca/elections_e.php?qry=12 on Thursday, April 7th, 2011. Bloc Québecois Conservative Liberal New Democratic Party 48

Ridings with the Greatest Increase in Voter Turnout in 2008 GE Rank Province Riding Party % Vote % Turnout 1 QC Papineau Liberal 41% 62% 2 QC Rosemont La Petite-Patrie Bloc Québecois 52% 65% 3 QC Trois-Rivières Bloc Québecois 45% 65% 4 QC Longueuil Pierre-Boucher Bloc Québecois 46% 66% 5 QC Hochelaga Bloc Québecois 50% 58% 6 QC Laurier Sainte-Marie Bloc Québecois 50% 61% 7 QC Verchères Les Patriotes Bloc Québecois 51% 72% 8 QC Beauport Limoilou Conservative 37% 59% 9 QC Saint-Bruno Saint-Hubert Bloc Québecois 45% 68% 10 QC Laval Bloc Québecois 38% 62% Source: Ridings with the greatest increase in voter turnout. "Search the Database." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from: http://www.punditsguide.ca/elections_e.php?qry=13 on Thursday, April 7th, 2011. Ridings with the Greatest Decrease in Voter Turnout in 2008 GE Rank Province Riding Party % Vote % Turnout 1 NL Labrador Liberal 70% 39% 2 SK Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River Conservative 47% 45% 3 MB Churchill New Democratic Party 47% 40% 4 NL Bonavista Gander Grand Falls Windsor Liberal 70% 41% 5 AB Fort McMurray Athabasca Conservative 67% 36% 6 ON Vaughan Liberal 49% 52% 7 ON Timmins James Bay New Democratic Party 57% 51% 8 ON Oak Ridges Markham Conservative 42% 56% 9 NL Random Burin St. George's Liberal 54% 41% 10 AB Edmonton Centre Conservative 49% 52% Source: Ridings with the greatest decrease in voter turnout. "Search the Catabase." The Pundit's Guide to Canadian Federal Elections. Accessed online from: http://www.punditsguide.ca/elections_e.php?qry=14 on Thursday, April 7th, 2011. Bloc Québecois Conservative Liberal New Democratic Party 49

Voter dilution in Provinces New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 1.40 1.35 1.35 1.24 1.21 1.21 1.04 1.08 1.08 0.97 0.97 0.97 1.05 1.05 1.05 0.90 0.92 0.91 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.49 1.51 1.51 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.87 0.88 0.87 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.84 0.88 0.87 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.07 1.26 1.26 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.69 2.69 2.69 1.19 1.20 1.19 1.07 1.09 1.09 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Visible Minorities Voters Nonvisible Minorities Voters All Voters Rural Urban Data Source: Pal, Michael & Sujit Choudhry. Is Every Ballot Equal? Visible-Minority Vote Dilution in. 13 (1). January 2007. 50

CMA Incidents per 100,000 City/Region Province Total, all violations Total, all Criminal Code violations (including traffic) Homicide Total robbery Regina SK 13,023.87 12,666.47 3.82 221.88 Kelowna BC 12,090.68 11,442.40 3.43 94.98 Saskatoon SK 11,616.88 11,080.50 1.55 211.77 Abbotsford-Mission BC 10,673.66 10,066.87 4.71 126.66 Vancouver BC 9,610.88 8,899.60 2.37 170.81 Edmonton AB 9,502.15 9,245.77 3.44 170.53 Victoria BC 9,379.63 8,685.68 1.44 73.46 Thunder Bay ON 9,078.51 8,831.77 131.32 Saint John NB 8,716.25 8,332.68 0.98 78.48 Winnipeg MB 8,499.46 8,297.01 4.07 232.67 Brantford ON 8,432.70 8,023.11 1.46 54.56 Halifax NS 7,843.32 7,487.23 1.77 122.16 St. John s NL 7,725.92 7,330.41 0.55 61.65 London ON 7,499.43 7,197.67 0.41 73.02 Moncton NB 6,835.68 6,410.38 35.44 Montréal QC 6,180.49 5,957.02 1.27 151.17 St.Catharines-Niagara ON 6,171.39 5,980.26 1.36 75.77 Calgary AB 6,146.46 5,976.83 2.87 108.36 Barrie ON 6,072.76 5,713.33 45.18 Kingston ON 6,063.56 5,820.66 0.64 29.96 Sherbrooke QC 6,041.37 5,563.39 47.03 Sudbury ON 5,945.43 5,571.37 1.22 72.99 Trois-Rivières QC 5,863.95 5,317.51 0.68 56.88 Windsor ON 5,844.98 5,537.07 2.10 83.35 Hamilton ON 5,838.98 5,583.84 0.85 116.93 Peterborough ON 5,822.63 5,539.41 0.83 53.00 Kitchener ON 5,702.21 5,366.85 0.78 46.60 Ottawa-Gatineau ON/QC 5,533.03 5,255.37 1.24 87.49 Guelph ON 5,314.73 5,070.38 32.09 Québec QC 4,933.31 4,645.40 1.09 48.05 Saguenay QC 4,735.89 4,569.91 24.90 Toronto ON 4,466.32 4,221.28 1.86 133.37 Data Source: Statistics Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR) (2009) 51

CMA Change in Crime Statistics (2008 2009) City/Region Province Total, all violations Total, all Criminal Code violations (including traffic) Homicide Total robbery Trois-Rivières QC 6.95 8.6-75.09 63.68 Sherbrooke QC 4.57 3.79-21.06 Peterborough ON 3.44 4.55 0 6.64 Guelph ON 1.99 1.71-22.51 Kitchener ON 1.43 0.97-43.88-24.62 St.Catharines-Niagara ON 1.33 1.2 100-3.42 Montréal QC 0.36 0.23-19.62-2.06 Thunder Bay ON -0.78 0.61-7.69 Hamilton ON -0.86-1.56-44.81-11.42 Québec QC -1.42-1.13-16.29 Kingston ON -1.67-1.58 0-19.20 Saguenay QC -1.75-2.33-42.65 Kelowna BC -1.87-2.19 94.89 14.30 Sudbury ON -2.10-2.81-50.00-9.26 London ON -2.45-2.64-66.94 3.87 Saint John NB -3.5-3.04-50.25 30.69 St. John s NL -3.84-5.06 0-17.13 Regina SK -4.37-4.68 56.56-11.93 Brantford ON -4.75-4.85 100-35.06 Toronto ON -5.2-5.36-9.71-5.99 Abbotsford-Mission BC -5.32-6.22 292.5 3.03 Edmonton AB -5.67-5.87 6.17 0.91 Barrie ON -6.03-5.99 7.67 Calgary AB -6.16-5.96-7.42-13.74 Victoria BC -6.26-7.48 24.14-9.16 Vancouver BC -6.62-7.04-3.66-4.94 Ottawa-Gatineau ON/QC -7.80-8.18-7.46 11.08 Halifax NS -8.34-9.27-1.67-11.16 Saskatoon SK -8.89-9.69-56.58-29.42 Moncton NB -9.33-9.73-27.42 Windsor ON -12.42-12.56 76.47 30.44 Winnipeg MB -15.07-15.60 11.20-22.96 Data Source: Statistics Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR) (2009) 52

Provinces Incidents per 100,000 Rank Province Total, all violations Total, all Criminal Code violations (including traffic) Homicide Total robbery 1 Northwest Territories 47,561.40 45,824.00 6.93 53.14 2 Nunavut 36,806.79 35,875.10 12.72 50.88 3 Yukon 23,971.16 23,114.29 9.05 45.26 4 Saskatchewan 14,924.73 14,125.11 2.95 128.45 5 British Columbia 10,813.53 10,010.49 2.67 123.04 6 Manitoba 10,622.96 10,267.40 4.47 157.87 7 Alberta 9,789.15 9,439.71 3.07 105.52 8 Nova Scotia 7,696.60 7,298.55 1.28 61.28 7,424.15 7,018.24 1.83 96.91 9 Newfoundland and Labrador 7,094.38 6,704.73 0.98 27.37 10 Prince Edward Island 6,941.17 6,759.50 1.43 16.45 11 New Brunswick 6,452.81 6,110.78 0.4 28.1 12 Quebec 5,886.18 5,577.57 1.19 89.98 13 Ontario 5,459.67 5,140.17 1.36 92.20 Data Source: Statistics Uniform Crime Reporting Uniform Survey, Crime Statistics Reporting Survey (UCR) (2009) Province Change in Crime Statistics (2008 2009) Rank Province Total, all violations Total, all Criminal Code violations (including traffic) Homicide Total robbery 1 Manitoba -8.88-8.98-12.52-21.59 2 British Columbia -7.58-8.17 30.88-3.72 3 Nova Scotia -6.32-6.98-7.91-15.77 4 Ontario -3.92-4.13-13.92-5.46-3.56-3.87 1.67-6.65 5 Alberta -2.74-2.94 22.31-4.27 6 Saskatchewan -1.37-2.43-1.67-18.11 7 Quebec -0.11-0.24 1.71-4.12 8 Newfoundland and Labrador 0.61-0.4 66.1-13.9 9 Prince Edward Island 2.17 2.32 42.06 10 Northwest Territories 2.24 1.85 50.98-11.02 11 New Brunswick 2.3 2.5-62.62-9.33 12 Yukon 4.35 4.57 47.39-7.84 13 Nunavut 15.04 14.46-43.21 22.31 Data Data Source: Source: Uniform Statistics Crime Reporting Uniform Survey, Crime Statistics Reporting Survey (UCR) (2009) 53

Transportation to Work by Mode Car, Truck, Van as Driver Central Cities 37.4% Suburbs 30.3% Small Cities 14.1% Rural 18.3% 67.7% 7,204,570 3,982,385 3,222,185 1,495,655 1,944,105 10,644,330 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Car, Truck, Van as Passenger Central Cities 40.9% Suburbs 27.1% Small Cities 14.6% Rural 17.4% 68.0% 770,780 463,345 307,435 165,685 196,680 1,133,145 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Public Transit Central Cities 72.6% Suburbs 24.0% Small Cities 2.2% Rural 1.2% 96.6% 1,566,855 1,177,660 389,195 36,350 19,515 1,622,720 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 54

Walked 63.3% 594,145 Central Cities 47.4% Suburbs 15.8% Small Cities 14.2% Rural 22.5% 445,495 148,650 133,495 211,650 939,290 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Bicycle 75.4% 147,405 Central Cities 57.8% Suburbs 17.6% Small Cities 12.5% Rural 12.1% 113,015 34,390 24,460 23,650 195,515 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Motorcycle Central Cities 41.7% Suburbs 27.9% Small Cities 15.0% Rural 15.4% 69.6% 13,975 8,375 5,600 3,010 3,100 20,085 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 55

Taxicab 64.2% 20,705 Central Cities 47.9% Suburbs 16.4% Small Cities 24.3% Rural 11.5% 15,425 5,280 7,835 3,695 32,235 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis Other Method Central Cities 33.7% Suburbs 20.6% Small Cities 16.7% Rural 29.1% 54.2% 68,855 42,725 26,130 21,175 36,900 126,930 Data Source: Statistics 2006 with MPI analysis 56

How many people work in Total labour force 15+ by Industry Central Cities 41.8% Suburbs 27.6% Small Cities 16.7% Rural 13.9% 69.4% 11,901,590 7,163,095 4,738,495 2,863,420 2,381,125 17,146,135 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 20.4% 106,820 Central Cities 9.1% Suburbs 11.3% Small Cities 15.5% Rural 64.1% 47,870 58,950 81,380 335,450 523,650 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Utilities Central Cities 35.7% Suburbs 28.6% Small Cities 17.1% Rural 18.6% 64.3% 85,480 47,410 38,070 22,710 24,760 132,950 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 57

Real Estate Central Cities 47.1% Suburbs 30.4% Small Cities 14.1% Rural 8.3% 77.5% 235,265 143,090 92,175 42,905 25,340 303,510 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Management of Companies and Enterprises Central Cities 47.7% Suburbs 34.0% Small Cities 11.2% Rural 7.1% 81.7% 16,775 9,800 6,975 2,295 1,460 20,530 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Public Administration Central Cities 43.9% Suburbs 26.0% Small Cities 20.1% Rural 10.0% 69.9% 684,290 429,995 254,295 196,480 97,845 978,615 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 58

Administration and Support, Waste Management, and Remediation Services Central Cities 47.8% Suburbs 27.0% Small Cities 16.3% Rural 8.9% 74.9% 541,065 345,605 195,460 117,515 64,115 722,695 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Accommodation and Food Services Central Cities 44.0% Suburbs 24.2% Small Cities 18.6% Rural 13.2% 68.2% 768,580 496,075 272,505 209,215 148,900 1,126,695 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Wholesale Trade Central Cities 41.3% Suburbs 36.8% Small Cities 12.7% Rural 9.1% 78.1% 577,635 305,270 272,365 94,235 67,435 739,305 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 59

Transportation and Warehousing Central Cities 38.2% Suburbs 30.9% Small Cities 15.3% Rural 15.5% 69.2% 567,245 313,670 253,575 125,600 127,350 820,195 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis Other Services (except Public Administration) Central Cities 42.1% Suburbs 26.3% Small Cities 17.2% Rural 14.4% 68.5% 561,460 345,575 215,885 140,685 117,735 819,880 Data Source: Statistics 2006, with MPI analysis 60

How many companies are in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 16.5% 27,847 Central Cities 5.9% Suburbs 10.6% Small Cities 14.7% Rural 68.8% 9,932 17,859 24,772 116,276 168,895 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Utilities Central Cities 32.1% Suburbs 21.1% Small Cities 15.2% Rural 31.6% 53.3% 1,226 739 485 349 727 2,302 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Central Cities 46.9% Suburbs 28.6% Small Cities 12.1% Rural 12.2% 75.7% 152,345 94,491 57,594 24,367 24,585 201,297 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 61

Management of Companies and Enterprises Central Cities 49.4% Suburbs 28.6% Small Cities 10.3% Rural 11.6% 78.1% 74,852 47,341 27,422 9,868 11,146 95,866 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Public Administration 35.7% 2,864 Central Cities 28.4% Suburbs 7.2% Small Cities 15.7% Rural 48.6% 2,278 575 1,263 3,905 8,032 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services Central Cities 44.0% Suburbs 30.5% Small Cities 11.3% Rural 14.1% 74.6% 80,420 47,410 32,885 12,153 15,254 107,827 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 62

Accommodation and Food Services Central Cities 41.8% Suburbs 23.2% Small Cities 13.1% Rural 21.8% 65.1% 68,238 43,852 24,295 13,697 22,888 104,823 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Wholesale Trade Central Cities 41.9% Suburbs 35.3% Small Cities 9.7% Rural 13.0% 77.3% 90,132 48,855 41,155 11,288 15,199 116,619 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) Transportation and Warehousing Central Cities 32.9% Suburbs 30.7% Small Cities 12.5% Rural 23.8% 63.7% 82,809 42,753 39,968 16,299 30,897 130,005 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 63

Other Services (except Public Administration) Central Cities 42.6% Suburbs 25.9% Small Cities 12.9% Rural 18.5% 68.6% 135,805 84,345 51,262 25,586 36,600 197,991 Data Source: Statistics (Canadian Business Patterns, 2008) 64

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