THE PILOT SHORTAGE: If It s Real, What Can We Do About It? Presented By: Katie Pribyl, AOPA Mitchell Young, USAIG The Pilot Shortage: If It s Real What Can We Do About It? Pilot Shortage, Fact or Farce Flying Magazine, January 1965 Pilot Shortage in the USA Aeroplane and Commercial Aviation News, Volume 111, 1966 The Pilot Shortage Myth AOPA Pilot, December 1968 The Pilot Shortage: If It s Real What Can We Do About It? NATO Seeks to Counter Military Pilot Shortage Aviation Week and Space Technology, Volume 111, 1979 Model Pilots Flying Magazine, November 1987 Ab Inito Training: Airlines Address the Pilot Shortage February 1988 1
The Pilot Shortage: If It s Real What Can We Do About It? Hard Knocks One Pilot s Experience Flying Magazine, August 1990 What Pilot Shortage? Flying Magazine, September 1991 Left Seat Congressional Studies of Pilots and Technicians Shortages Flying Magazine, December 1993 The Pilot Shortage: If It s Real What Can We Do About It? Too Many Pilots Flying Magazine, September 1997 Training West With the Wind Flying Magazine, March 2000 Impact of Pilot Shortages on Air Service to Smaller and Rural Markets US Senate Hearings, July 2000 The Pilot Shortage: If It s Real What Can We Do About It? There is Supposedly an Airline Pilots Shortage Today! Flying Magazine, February 2001 Connecting the Dots, Corporate Aviation has its own Pilot Shortage AOPA Pilot, April 2018 2
Population Pyramids Population Pyramids TABLE 13 AVERAGE AGE OF ACTIVE PILOTS BY CATEGORY as of DECEMBER 31 Type of Pilot Certificates Flight Instructor Calendar Year Total 1/ Student 3/ Sport Recreational Private 2/ Commercial 2/ Airline Transport 2/ CFI Remote Pilot 2017 44.9 32.5 57.1 49.0 48.9 46.2 50.6 48.0 41.9 2016 44.9 31.7 56.4 44.0 48.4 46.0 50.2 48.0 42.7 2015 44.8 31.4 56.2 44.6 48.5 45.6 49.9 47.8 N/A 2014 44.8 31.5 55.8 43.1 48.5 45.5 49.8 47.7 N/A 2013 44.8 31.5 55.2 44.8 48.5 45.4 49.7 47.5 N/A 2012 44.7 31.5 54.7 47.8 48.3 44.8 49.9 47.2 N/A 2011 44.4 31.4 54.4 48.8 47.9 44.4 49.7 46.8 N/A 2010 44.2 31.4 53.8 50.8 47.6 44.2 49.4 46.4 N/A 2009 45.3 33.5 53.5 50.4 47.1 44.2 48.9 46.0 N/A 2008 45.1 33.6 53.2 50.1 46.9 44.8 48.5 45.8 N/A 2007 45.7 34.0 52.9 52.4 48.0 46.1 48.3 45.5 N/A 2006 45.6 34.4 52.9 51.5 47.7 46.1 48.1 45.2 N/A 2005 45.5 34.6 53.2 50.9 47.4 46.0 47.8 44.9 N/A 2004 45.1 34.2 N/A 51.3 47.0 45.9 47.5 44.6 N/A 2003 44.7 34.0 N/A 51.5 46.5 45.6 47.0 44.4 N/A 2002 44.4 33.7 N/A 51.0 46.2 45.5 46.6 44.2 N/A 1/ Includes helicopter (only) and glider (only). 2/ Includes pilots with an airplane and/or a helicopter and/or a glider and/or a gyroplane certificate. Pilots with multiple ratings will be reported under highest rating. For example a pilot with a private helicopter and commercial airplane certificates will be reported in the commercial category. 3/ In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. N/A Not available. Sport certificate first issued in 2005. Remote pilot certificate first issued in 2016. 3
Pilot Age Modeling Pilot Age Model Pilot Projection Pilot Population SO, WHAT IS THE INDUSTRY DOING ABOUT IT? 4
EAA Young Eagles Introduce youth to aviation Air Academy Summer Camps Scholarships NBAA Safety Committee has identified Work Force Competency and Staffing as a 2018 Top Safety Focus Area. NBAA Young Professionals in Business Aviation (Yo Pro) Internships Professional Development NBAA Mentoring Network Scholarships 5
Airlines Have initiated Pipeline Programs to identify, recruit and assist pilots in reaching minimum airline qualifications. NATA College Chapters Student Memberships Scholarships and Grants Regional and Local Aviation Groups Outreach Mentoring Scholarships 6
Two Main Problems: What about Light General Aviation? How do we span the gap between a young persons interest in aviation and a young professional seeking an internship or mentoring? AOPA is actively building programs that will help to bridge that gap while insuring that light General Aviation and personal aviation do not become a historic footnote! 7
DEFINING THE PROBLEM DEFINING THE PROBLEM Boeing predicts that North America will need 112,000 new pilots between 2016 2035. A heavy lift considering the FAA issued just 4,449 new Airline Transport Pilot certificates in 2017. DEFINING THE PROBLEM General aviation is facing some serious challenges: falling pilot numbers alarming student dropout rates high costs pilots who simply drift away because they lack the support and inspiration they need to keep flying. Without intervention these realities have the potential to create a self reinforcing feedback loop that causes general aviation to slip into an ever tightening downward spiral. 8
YOU CAN FLY is a collection of engaging, donorfunded initiatives designed to reach pilots, and future pilots, at key moments in their journey. Get people flying, and keep them flying. That s the mission of AOPA s YOU CAN FLY program and it s off to a powerful start. HIGH SCHOOL CURRICULUM Introducing students to careers in aviation and aerospace through a rigorous four year STEM based aviation curriculum. Courses fall along three pathways flying, drones, and aerospace engineering and are being made available to any high school for free. More than 700 students are field testing the ninth grade courses. Additional courses for grades 10 12 will be rolled out each year. The courses include detailed lesson plans, student activities HIGH SCHOOL AVIATION STEM SYMPOSIUM 250+ educators, principals, and administrators participated in 3 rd annual AOPA Aviation STEM Symposium the only one of its kind. 2018 event in Louisville, KY on Nov. 5-6. Hosted by UPS. Keynote speaker Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX. 9
HIGH SCHOOL SCHOLARSHIPS Award more than $100,000 each year in high school flight training scholarships. 20 teens who are passionate about earning their primary certificate will receive $5,000 each. Applications close May 2, 2018. FLIGHT TRAINING Helping flight schools and instructors improve the training experience so those who begin flying will successfully earn a pilot certificate. Students who want to fly for fun have high expectations on how they spend their time and money. Flight training is more trouble than its worth because of indifferent customer service, lack of transparency, inexperienced instructors, unclear goals. FLIGHT TRAINING Various organizations have made efforts to improve the process of flight training, no one has made a coordinated effort to improve the experience of learning to fly. The AOPA Flight Training Network is designed as a comprehensive solution to help schools reduce the drop out rate and produce more pilots. Will do this through combination of technology and training. 10
FLIGHT TRAINING TECHNOLOGY At the heart of this initiative is an adaptive, individualized learning application that will deliver lesson plans to students and CFIs that are automatically selected based on past student performance. Students can advance in areas, even if struggling in others. Students always know where they are in the process transparency CFIs get guidance to help score student performance, teach maneuvers, and overcome common errors Simplify and improve student record keeping Easier for transfer of students between CFIs FLIGHT TRAINING TECHNOLOGY Flight schools cobble together systems in order to run their businesses (invoicing, record keeping, scheduling, customer management). Tools don t talk to each other and data needs to be reentered multiple times or not at all. As a result, schools don t have basic facts about their businesses like how many students they have. Building integrated business tools with partners in order for flight schools to retain clients and run their businesses. FLIGHT TRAINING TRAINING Tools can only be effective if schools use them and incorporate them into building a better experience for students. AOPA Flight Training Network members will have access to in person and online training through the You Can Fly Academy. Training provided in areas such as customer service, marketing, and customer relationship management, with additional courses being added over time. 11
FLYING CLUB Flying clubs are a force multiplier for general aviation. They help make best use of the shrinking fleet of pistonpowered general aviation aircraft, give pilots a reason to go to the airport, reduce the cost of flying, and they provide the community and support pilots want. We are promoting and building flying clubs. The program has launched 65 new clubs serving an estimated 960 pilots in locations nationwide. FLYING CLUB AOPA Flying Club Finder helps pilots find clubs in their area. Hundreds of clubs nationwide are listed. Maximum Fun, Minimum Cost seminars give interested pilots information about the benefits of clubs as well as what it takes to start a club. You Can Fly staff provide free, in person help with everything from choosing a club structure to writing bylaws to buying an airplane. RUSTY PILOTS Making it easy for thousands of lapsed pilots to return to the air. Bringing them back through fun, interactive seminars around the country and providing opportunities to meet local CFIs and schedule training. Each Rusty Pilots seminar provides approximately three hours of fun, interactive ground training on topics required for the flight review, and participants receive an instructor s endorsement for that training. 12
RUSTY PILOTS To make it easy for flight schools, AOPA provides presenters, helps identify lapsed pilots in the area, and provides marketing and follow up support at no charge. BasicMed has brought 30,000+ pilots back to aviation. Rusty Pilots ramped up to unprecedented levels, offering 70 percent more seminars in 2017 than in the previous year. On average, seminar attendees have been away from the cockpit for about eight years. More than 38 percent of lapsed pilots who attended a seminar in 2017 reported that they went on to complete a flight review. We ve made a meaningful start. We ve proven the You Can Fly program works. Now it s time to work together to turn the early successes into lasting ones. Mark Baker, AOPA President and CEO As Insurance Brokers and Underwriters: How can we help our clients to mitigate this known risk? 13
Make sure our clients know they should have a plan! Listen Be prepared with knowledge of available resources Open communication is essential What are the client s needs and concerns? What unique obstacles must be overcome? Help the client explain their plan to underwriters. Key Areas to Consider Internships Mentoring Crew Pairings Salary, Benefits and Scheduling 14
What have you seen in your area? Are there high schools offering aviation specific programs? Are local aviation organizations offering scholarships of any kind? Thank You 15