New Technologies New Modeling -

New Technologies New Modeling - event based maintenance forecasting Ken Magill Regional Director, Airline Economics Proprietary: The information contained herein is proprietary to The Boeing Company and shall not be reproduced or disclosed in whole or in part or used for any reason except when such user possesses direct, written authorization from The Boeing Company. September 2014 The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing. Boeing is a trademark of The Boeing Company. Integrated Cost Analysis System

Providing accurate airplane cost data, world class analytics, to guide fleet decisions Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 2

Integrated Cost Analysis System The standard for airline economic modeling Latest methods for airplane economic comparisons Insight on future airline decisions Accuracy in presenting model costs Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 3

How many customers does it take, on average, to cover the cost of a flight? Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 4

11% Maintenance costs 29% Fuel costs 59% 1% Salaries, taxes and fees Ownership costs Other operating and nonoperating costs Profit The Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2012 Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 5

Generating answers on airplane economics to help airlines meet with success Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 6

Legacy Systems Reached the end of their useful life Utilized for nearly 20 years Unable to grow into the 21 st century Moving on 7 E M T

Integration ICAS aligns all aspects of airline economic analysis MaintCost2 Recurring Maintenance Costs OpCost Intro Recurring Operational Costs Non-Recurring Introduction Costs 8 E M T

Advanced Methodologies ICAS provides better information and analyses Airplane Performance Maintenance Events Airframe Spares and Commonality Shop Visits Rates and Derate Ownership Fleet Economics Visualization 9 E M T

Including knowledge of Boeing Airplanes Large 400+ Seats Airbus Airplanes Twin-Aisle 230-399 Seats Single-Aisle 126-200+ Seats Small Single-Aisle 90-125 Seats Regional 70-89 Seats And Many Others Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 10

New Technologies new methods 1

Capitalizing on a wide range of industry sources Operator Reported Data US DOT Form 41Data Boeing s In Service Data Program (ISDP) Boeing s Reliability Department (RM&T) Additional Sources Industry Publications Boeing s Vendor Costs MRO Quotes Maintenance Planning Documents (Interval) Boeing s TOPIC$ Conferences Copyright 2013, Boeing. All rights reserved. 12

737NG modeling is based on significant industry data. Maintenance Event # of Airlines Reported # of Data Points A-Check 26 2165 C-Check 31 908 D-Check 17 236 APU 25 150 Landing Gear 22 97

777 well represented at TOPIC$ conference Maintenance Event # of Airlines Reported # of Data Points A-Check 13 1546 C-Check 10 135 D-Check 3 61 APU 9 60 Landing Gear 8 30

Life-Cycle Maintenance Costs ICAS allows for life-cycle costs to be presented for any period Annual Airframe Mx Cash Flows $ Average Life-Cycle Cost Study Life-Cycle Sample Years

DOS 1 Days Out of Service (DOS) ICAS models revenue opportunities Function of event labor hours (2,385 above), labor force size, and productivity Occur during scheduled maintenance down-time periods, but include routine and non-routine maintenance content Does not include maintenance down-time periods for unplanned events Affects annual utilization and availability 20 15 Days Out of Service 737 10 5 0 Years T

How a 777 spends a day Airplane Availability Each Hour Enhanced Utilization: $1 to 4 million per year Profit Opportunity The data and programs contained in this application are to be used solely by the IATA MCTF participating airlines and manufacturers. Exceptions are only allowed with permission of the IATA Engineering and Maintenance Group (AEG). International Air Transport Association IATA MCR Tool 2010 Airplane Availability: 86%, but used 70%!

Annual Days Out of Service per Airplane Airplane Type: 777-8X Engine : GE9X-93B Max TOGW (LB): 721,300 Thrust (LB): 93,000 Brake Type: Carbon Derate(%): 28.70 Avg Flight Time(FltHrs): 6.49 Maintenance Plan: 777X_Plan Study Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Year End Fleet Size 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Effective Fleet Size 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Utilization: Trips/Yr 730 728 728 716 728 730 711 728 705 711 Avg Airplane Age: FltHrs 2,364 7,087 11,810 16,447 21,166 25,889 30,519 35,231 39,943 44,435 Avg Airplane Age: Years 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 A Check 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 5.00 Heavy Check 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 Total DOS 4.00 5.00 5.00 11.00 5.00 4.00 13.00 5.00 4.00 25.00

Estimated Life-Cycle Average Costs $/Trip (3,000nm) Airplane Type: 777-8X Engine : GE9X-93B Flight Time: 6.485 Max TOGW(LB): 721,300 Thrust(LB): 93,000 Range (NM): 3,000 Brake Type: Carbon Engine Derate (%): 28.7 SVR: 0.0390 Effective Fleet Size: 1 Avg Time on Wing (Hrs): 25,630 Avg Annual Utilization (Trips): 725 IN-HOUSE CONTRACT LABOR MATERIAL TOTAL LABOR MATERIAL TOTAL TOTAL AIRFRAME Line Check 103.48 169.45 272.93 62.83 42.36 105.19 378.12 A Check 64.22 191.73 255.95 - - - 255.95 Heavy Check 116.98 202.00 318.98 41.04 30.43 71.46 390.44 Total On-Airplane 284.69 563.18 847.86 103.86 72.79 176.65 1,024.51 Brakes 8.13 150.10 158.23 3.36 26.49 29.85 188.07 Wheels, Tires 5.67 34.75 40.42 2.34 6.13 8.48 48.90 Landing Gear 26.44 14.50 40.94 75.71 17.72 93.43 134.37 APU 8.13 53.82 61.95 44.45 125.57 170.02 231.97 Other Components 233.63 197.68 431.31 234.58 84.72 319.30 750.61 Total-Shop 282.00 450.85 732.84 360.45 260.63 621.08 1,353.92 Contractor's Surcharge 40.01 40.01 40.01 Shipping and Handling 70.98 70.98 - - 70.98 AIRFRAME (Sub-Total) 566.68 1,085.01 1,651.69 464.31 373.43 837.74 2,489.43 POWERPLANT QEC Shop 53.15 175.99 229.14 53.37 75.42 128.79 357.93 Engine Shop 72.63 2,124.73 2,197.36 94.98 1,144.09 1,239.06 3,436.43 Life Limited Parts 157.86 157.86 - - 157.86 Total Shop 125.78 2,458.58 2,584.36 148.34 1,219.51 1,367.85 3,952.21 Contractor's Surcharge - 146.34 146.34 146.34 Shipping and Handling 161.05 161.05 - - 161.05 POWERPLANT (Sub-Total) 125.78 2,619.63 2,745.41 148.34 1,365.85 1,514.19 4,259.60 TOTAL DIRECT 692.46 3,704.64 4,397.10 612.66 1,739.28 2,351.94 6,749.03 OVERHEAD 1,796.14 1,796.14 1,796.14 TOTAL MAINTENANCE 2,488.60 3,704.64 6,193.24 612.66 1,739.28 2,351.94 8,545.17

Annual Maintenance Costs $/airplane Airplane Type: 777-8X Max TOGW (LB): 721,300 Brake Type: Carbon Engine / Thrust (LB): Derate(%): Range (NM): GE9X-93B / 93,000 28.7 3,000 Study Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Year End Fleet Size 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Effective Fleet Size 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Annual Utilization(FH/Year) 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 4,702 Flight Time(Hours) 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 6.485 Avg Fleet Age (Years) 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 Avg Fleet Age (FltCycles) 363 1,088 1,814 2,539 3,264 3,989 4,714 5,439 6,164 6,889 Avg Fleet Age (FH) 2,357 7,059 11,761 16,462 21,164 25,865 30,567 35,269 39,970 44,672 Airframe Line 200,765 239,780 261,584 263,047 264,510 265,973 267,436 268,899 270,363 271,826 A Check 123,172 170,677 144,868 182,815 184,662 149,090 188,092 189,940 153,312 193,370 Heavy Check 0 0 0 263,979 0 0 298,472 0 0 1,752,638 On-Airplane Total 323,937 410,457 406,452 709,842 449,172 415,063 754,000 458,839 423,674 2,217,834 Brakes 0 0 338,107 0 0 339,940 0 341,836 0 0 Wheels, Tires 30,420 30,453 30,490 45,800 30,577 30,611 45,984 30,699 30,734 30,770 Landing Gear 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 APU 0 0 289,716 0 0 370,193 0 0 448,370 0 Other Components 288,984 359,040 429,097 470,792 478,965 487,138 495,312 504,048 513,447 522,846 Shop Total 319,404 389,494 1,087,410 516,592 509,542 1,227,882 541,296 876,583 992,551 553,616 Contractor's Surcharge 7,075 8,548 34,334 12,492 10,505 40,437 13,131 16,688 55,580 13,456 Shipping and Handling 19,617 24,620 48,869 38,718 28,340 51,702 40,878 48,336 85,710 41,683 AIRFRAME Total 670,033 833,118 1,577,065 1,277,644 997,559 1,735,085 1,349,305 1,400,447 1,557,515 2,826,588 Powerplant QEC Shop 137,800 171,206 204,613 224,495 228,392 232,290 236,187 240,353 244,835 249,317 Engine Shop 0 0 0 0 0 12,059,012 0 0 0 0 Life Limited Parts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shop Total 137,800 171,206 204,613 224,495 228,392 12,291,301 236,187 240,353 244,835 249,317 Contractor's Surcharge 3,484 4,329 5,174 5,677 5,775 488,959 5,972 6,078 6,191 6,304 Shipping and Handling 4,743 5,893 7,042 7,727 7,861 531,337 8,129 8,272 8,427 8,581 POWERPLANT Total 146,028 181,428 216,829 237,898 242,028 13,311,598 250,288 254,703 259,452 264,202 DIRECT MAINTENANCE TOTAL 816,061 1,014,547 1,793,894 1,515,542 1,239,587 15,046,683 1,599,593 1,655,150 1,816,967 3,090,790 OVERHEAD 498,833 622,407 749,069 968,802 762,896 2,018,384 1,026,566 829,637 1,847,793 1,068,839 TOTAL MAINTENANCE 1,314,894 1,636,954 2,542,963 2,484,344 2,002,483 17,065,066 2,626,160 2,484,787 3,664,760 4,159,628