CHAPTER 2 Aviation Activity Forecasts 2.1 Introduction 14 CFR Part 150 requires that noise exposure maps (NEMs) be prepared for two scenarios existing conditions and conditions 5 years into the future. Each map reflects the annual average number of daily aircraft operations for the specified year. Typically, data for the most recent full calendar year for which data are available at the time the maps are prepared are used to represent existing conditions. In this 14 CFR Part 150 NEM Update, operations data for calendar year 2013 were used to represent the baseline (2014) condition (2014, which is the year of the submittal of the NEMs to the FAA) and forecast operations in 2019 were used to represent 5-year future conditions. Because the number of operations on the average day of the year is determined by dividing the total number of operations throughout the year by 365, the number of aircraft operations on any given day at San Francisco International Airport will be higher than the average number on some days and lower than the average number on other days. Factors that typically cause fluctuations in the daily number of aircraft operations include weekly, monthly, and seasonal variations in demand, weather conditions, patterns of tourism or business travel, and the economy. Actual aircraft operations data were used to develop the 2014 NEM. Aviation activity forecasts included in an airport s master plan are typically used as the basis for the activity forecasts used in the INM for the purpose of preparing future noise exposure map(s) in a 14 CFR Part 150 study. The most recent FAA-approved aviation activity forecast document for the Airport was prepared in April 2014 by Landrum & Brown. 2.2 The 2014 Aviation Activity Forecast The most recent FAA-approved aviation activity forecasts are documented in the report San Francisco International Airport Forecast Update (the 2014 Forecast) by Landrum & Brown [II-1]. See Appendix E for a copy of the FAA s letter approving the 2014 Forecast. The 2014 Forecast provides baseline (2013) data and projections of annual passenger enplanements, air cargo volumes, aircraft operations, and commercial aircraft fleet mix that reflect market-driven demand for air service. The 2014 Forecast is unconstrained and as such does not take facility constraints or other outside limiting factors into consideration. The 2014 Forecast provides SFO and the FAA with an adaptive framework for long range planning. San Francisco International Airport 2-1 ESA / 120832
The following sections present information regarding historic and forecast enplaned passengers and aircraft operations (takeoffs and landings) at San Francisco International Airport, as derived from the 2014 Forecast. 2.3 Enplaned Passengers 2.3.1 Historical Enplaned Passengers As shown in Table 2-1, enplanement volumes at SFO have generally exhibited an upward trend since 1990, driven in large part by growth in international traffic. International enplanements have more than doubled from 2.0 million in 1990 to more than 4.8 million in 2013, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent. Domestic enplanements at SFO have experienced growth of 1.3 percent annually since 1990, growing from 13.2 million in 1990 to 17.6 million in 2013. Total enplanement volumes at SFO increased from 15.2 million in 1990 to 22.4 million in 2013, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. The 2001/2002 economic recession; the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks; the Iraq War; and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak all served to weaken demand for air travel between 2001 and 2003 at SFO. TABLE 2-1 ENPLANED PASSENGERS AT SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 1990 TO 2013 Total Enplanements Year Domestic International Total 1990 13,175,687 1,999,259 15,174,946 1991 13,692,637 1,905,258 15,597,895 1992 13,759,074 2,111,269 15,870,343 1993 13,700,021 2,321,800 16,021,821 1994 14,377,082 2,625,738 17,002,820 1995 14,865,225 2,933,532 17,798,757 1996 16,006,144 3,280,418 19,286,562 1997 16,467,869 3,494,939 19,962,808 1998 16,332,305 3,326,681 19,658,986 1999 16,193,811 3,589,511 19,783,322 2000 16,133,466 4,074,559 20,208,025 2001 13,263,633 3,788,006 17,051,699 2002 11,771,589 3,649,790 15,421,379 2003 11,059,743 3,353,472 14,413,215 2004 12,233,814 3,791,737 16,025,551 2005 12,308,968 4,054,498 16,363,466 2006 12,316,447 4,241,560 16,558,007 2007 13,212,552 4,474,116 17,686,668 2008 14,059,207 4,469,067 18,528,274 2009 14,450,146 4,161,125 18,611,271 2010 15,145,876 4,393,816 19,539,692 2011 15,899,323 4,489,394 20,388,717 San Francisco International Airport 2-2 ESA / 120832
TABLE 2-1 (Continued) ENPLANED PASSENGERS AT SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 1990 TO 2013 Total Enplanements Year Domestic International Total 2012 17,415,286 4,732,903 22,148,189 2013 17,577,273 4,840,512 22,417,785 1990-2000 2.0% 7.4% 2.9% 2000-2013 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 1990-2013 1.3% 3.9% 1.7% SOURCES: Landrum & Brown, April 2014; and SFO Year End Traffic Report, CY2013. 2.3.2 Forecast Enplaned Passengers Table 2-2 presents projected passenger enplanements data for the period between 2013 and 2033. The results of the passenger forecasts include a relatively modest 2.1 percent annual gain in domestic enplanements over the forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to grow at 4.2 percent annually, primarily reflecting recent historical trends and relatively strong economic growth projected for the Asia, Middle East, and Latin American economies. The share of international enplanements is expected to grow from 21.6 percent of total enplanements in 2013 to 29.3 percent in 2033. Overall, total enplaned passengers at SFO are forecast to increase from 22.4 million in 2013 to 37.4 million by 2033, at an average growth rate of 2.6 percent per year. TABLE 2-2 FORECAST ENPLANEMENTS AT SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 2013 TO 2033 Total Enplanements Year Domestic International Total 2013 17,577,273 4,840,512 22,417,785 Forecast 2014 17,689,000 5,051,000 22,740,000 2015 18,067,000 5,269,000 23,336,000 2016 18,456,400 5,497,000 23,953,400 2017 18,853,100 5,735,000 24,588,100 2018 19,257,200 5,984,000 25,241,200 2019 19,672,700 6,244,000 25,916,700 2020 20,097,800 6,514,000 26,611,800 2021 20,531,600 6,797,000 27,328,600 2023 21,429,200 7,399,000 28,828,200 2028 23,827,100 9,047,000 32,874,100 2033 26,479,200 10,955,000 37,434,200 2013-2033 2.1% 4.2% 2.6% SOURCE: Landrum & Brown, April 2014. San Francisco International Airport 2-3 ESA / 120832
2.4 Aircraft Operations 2.4.1 Historical Aircraft Operations Table 2-3 presents historical aircraft operations data for SFO. Total aircraft operations at SFO increased from 379,500 in 2007 to 421,400 in 2013, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. During this time period, commercial passenger operations experienced the fastest growth, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. Military operations at SFO remained relatively flat during the period while cargo, air taxi and general aviation operations all experienced decreases during the period. TABLE 2-3 HISTORICAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 2007-2013 Calendar Year Passenger All - Cargo Air Taxi Total General Aviation Military Total 2007 330,114 7,140 20,463 357,717 19,150 2,633 379,500 2008 344,834 6,420 18,303 369,557 15,478 2,675 387,710 2009 342,658 7,084 14,938 364,860 12,293 2,778 379,751 2010 349,420 7,036 15,512 371,968 12,570 2,710 387,248 2011 365,372 6,782 16,059 388,213 12,711 2,640 403,564 2012 387,416 6,274 15,596 409,286 12,561 2,719 424,566 2013 386,416 5,920 14,475 406,811 12,213 2,376 421,400 2007-2013 2.7% -3.1% -5.6% 2.2% -7.2% -1.7% 1.8% SOURCES: Landrum & Brown, April 2014; and SFO Year End Traffic Report, CY2013. 2.4.2 Forecast Aircraft Operations Table 2-4 presents projected aircraft operations data for SFO. Total operations at the airport are expected to grow at an average rate of 2.0 percent annually over the forecast period, increasing from an estimated 421,400 operations in 2013 to 625,620 operations in 2033. passenger and air taxi operations are anticipated to experience the fastest growth, with average growth rates of 2.0 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. Military operations at SFO are not anticipated to grow during the forecast period while general aviation operations are expected to grow modestly at an average annual growth rate of 0.5 percent. San Francisco International Airport 2-4 ESA / 120832
TABLE 2-4 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST FOR SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 2013-2033 Calendar Year Passenger All - Cargo Air Taxi Total General Aviation Military Total 2013 386,416 5,920 14,475 406,811 12,213 2,376 421,400 Forecast 2014 389,800 5,800 15,000 410,600 12,300 2,400 425,300 2015 393,400 5,700 15,500 414,600 12,360 2,400 429,360 2016 397,600 5,900 16,000 419,500 12,420 2,400 434,320 2017 402,500 6,100 16,600 425,200 12,480 2,400 440,080 2018 407,800 6,200 17,200 431,200 12,540 2,400 446,140 2019 413,500 6,400 17,800 437,700 12,600 2,400 452,700 2020 423,800 6,600 18,400 448,800 12,660 2,400 463,860 2021 432,100 6,700 19,000 457,800 12,720 2,400 472,920 2022 441,900 6,900 19,700 468,500 12,780 2,400 483,680 2023 451,900 7,000 20,400 479,300 12,840 2,400 494,540 2028 508,300 7,700 22,100 538,100 13,140 2,400 553,640 2033 572,500 8,400 28,800 609,700 13,520 2,400 625,620 2013-2033 2.0% 1.8% 3.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.0% SOURCE: Landrum & Brown, April 2014. 2.5 Passenger and Cargo Airlines Serving San Francisco International Airport Table 2-5 lists the 12 domestic passenger airlines and 27 international/charter passenger airlines serving SFO as of July 2014. SFO is also served by eight all-cargo carriers. TABLE 2-5 DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN FLAG PASSENGER AIRLINES SERVING SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Domestic Passenger Airlines AirTran Airways Alaska Airlines American Airlines Delta Air Lines Frontier Airlines Hawaiian Airlines JetBlue Airways Southwest Airlines Sun Country Airlines United Airlines US Airways Virgin America Foreign Flag Passenger Airlines Aer Lingus AeroMexico Air Canada Air China Air France Air New Zealand All Nippon Airways Asiana Airlines British Airways Cathay Pacific China Airlines China Eastern Emirates EVA Air Japan Airlines KLM Royal Dutch Airlines Korean Air Lines LAN Peru Lufthansa German Airlines Philippine Airlines Scandinavian Airlines Singapore Airlines Swiss International Air Lines TACA (Avianca) Virgin Atlantic WestJet Airlines XL Airways France SOURCE: San Francisco International Airport, June 2014. San Francisco International Airport 2-5 ESA / 120832
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