Outlook 2018 Prospects of inbound tourism to Greece in 2018 March 2018 Dr. Aris Ikkos, ISHC Serafeim Koutsos Research Director Analyst ΙΝΣΕΤΕ Republishing is permitted provided the source is mentioned Evangelia Lamprou Researcher -Statistician
Introduction Inbound tourism flows into the country, particularly during periods when there is an absence of investments that substantially change the form of the Greek tourism product and attract new markets, depend on a) geopolitical developments and events of nature that render certain competing destinations more or less attractive in terms of security, b) economic developments in international markets, to the degree that these developments impact the desire and capability of the residents of a given market to travel abroad, and c) our access to these markets, which, for Greece, is to a great extent via air routes. The present study focuses on the economic developments in international markets and our access to these markets, setting out a) the key macroeconomic data (GDP, currency exchange rates, Consumer Confidence or Economic Sentiment Indicators) for the economies of the markets most important to us, and b) demand for airline seats to Greek destinations, as determined from the airline companies planning of flights to the country s regional airports (that is, other than Athens International Airport). The analysis is carried out for Greek tourism s 18 largest markets, based on receipts, which account for 76% of the total receipts of inbound tourism in Greece in 2016. In parallel, data is provided on each country s outbound tourism and Greece s comparative position among the various destinations, as well as on the country s significance in terms of inbound Greek tourism and the main destinations they visit. For each market, the data are set out on a single page, so that the reader can gain an overview of a given market. On the following page, we provide guidance as to how to read the data. 2
Planned airline seats per airport for the Summer period 2018 Change in number of seats compared to Summer 2017 Percentage change compared to 2017 How to read data, charts and tables Flag In brief, what is the outlook regarding travel flows from the specific country to Greece for Summer Season 2018, based on its economic indicators and the planned airline seat capacity to Greek regional airports. Facts about the economy of the country examined that affect holiday intentions. - For Eurozone countries, GDP development and projections for the period 2013 2019 are recorded, according to the latest (February 2018) EU projections and those of last year (February 2017). - For countries outside the Eurozone, their exchange rate with the Euro is recorded. - For all countries, the development of the Consumer Confidence Index or Economic Sentiment Indicator is recorded. Outbound tourism total number of outbound trips from the country, in million Top-5 destinations: 5 most popular destinations of outbound tourists, in descending order Ranking of Greece in country s outbound tourism 5 most popular destinations of outbound tourists in the Mediterranean, in descending order. Source: UNWTO data, 2016 Inbound tourism to Greece from country Arrivals: total arrivals, in thousand (K) Overnights: total overnights, in thousand (K) Revenues: total spend, in million Average spend per Capita in Average spend per Day in Average Length of Stay in days Top-3 destinations in Greece Source: Bank of Greece data, 2016 Heraklion 1.095.826 259.758 31% Thessaloniki 719.146 115.281 19% Rhodes 624.801 184.220 42% Kos 539.033 224.651 71% Corfu 361.903 144.420 66% Chania 115.431 26.964 30% Kavala 88.470 21.730 33% Santorini 77.298 44.136 133% Mykonos 76.005 35.325 87% Aktio 59.625 32.857 123% Kalamata 49.972 27.244 120% Samos 45.326 28.568 170% Zante 44.312 28.752 185% Araxos 32.130 10.017 45% Skiathos 25.760 10.640 70% Kefalonia 23.292 23.292 Karpathos 13.200 10.050 319% Sitia 12.420 12.420 Mytilene 7.940 5.364 208% Volos 6.048 1.188 24% Total 4.017.938 1.246.877 45% Source: Hellenic Slot Coordination Authority (HSCA) - Processing: SETE Intelligence 3
Summary and Conclusions -1 The outlook for tourist traffic at Greece s regional airports, based on airline companies planning of flights/seats as of 31 January 2018 for the 2018 summer season is very encouraging (+22% as compared to corresponding data for the 2017 summer season). Although this bodes well for a new record number of arrivals for Greek tourism, we should note, on the one hand, that planning changes as the season progresses and, on the other hand, that actual arrivals fall short of the number of seats, depending on occupancy. Thus, the final number of air arrivals will differ from that shown by the seats/flights planned as of January. Important contributing factors include the positive economic environment (the European Commission projected last February that the European Union s GDP will increase by +2.4% in 2018, the largest increase in the past decade; this compares favourably to the projection of +2.2% made last November and +1.8% a year earlier) in almost all of the markets under consideration. Exceptions include the markets of the United Kingdom (due to weakening of the pound against the euro and low consumer confidence, as a result of the Brexit decision), Turkey (due to ongoing depreciation of the Turkish lira and major fluctuations in consumer confidence), Russia (weakened ruble against the euro). Nevertheless, in the UK and Turkey the economic indicators have not negatively impacted seat planning, which has increased compared to last year; in Russia, however, we observe a reduction in planned seats as well. 4
Summary and Conclusions -2 While there is increased demand for seats from Romania, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Turkey, their currencies exchange rates with the euro have deteriorated as compared to summer 2017, and this is expected to have a negative impact on demand. Considering individual markets, regional airports have seen significant increases from the markets of Germany (+45% or 1.3 million), the United Kingdom (+20% or 670,000), Poland (+52% or 448,000), Austria (+60% or 222,000), Italy (+14% or 169,000), Netherlands (+13% or 124,000) and Sweden (+20% or 123.000), with only the Russian market showing a decrease (-12% or 160,000). A marginal drop has also been seen from the Cypriot market (-1% or -3,000), which is even larger if the increase seen in flights to Thessaloniki s airport is subtracted (see page 7: base effect at Thessaloniki Airport ). Regarding Greece s ranking in outgoing tourism of the markets under consideration, according to data for in 2016, we see it in the top 10 in all main source markets, with the exception of the Russian and U.S. markets, where it ranks 11 th and 25 th, respectively. More specifically, it is ranked first in the neighbouring markets of Bulgaria, Turkey and Cyprus, second in the Romanian market, and fifth in neighbouring Italy. Noteworthy are Greece s rankings in the markets of the United Kingdom (6 th ), France (7 th ) and Germany (8 th ). The picture changes significantly with regard to Mediterranean destinations*, with Greece ranked among the top five of the main destinations, except in the Russian market, where Greece ranked 6 th. *Greece, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Croatia, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Malta, Cyprus, 5
Summary and Conclusions - 3 Moreover, in 2016, as compared to 2015, - Greece rose: - one position as a preferred destination for travellers from Germany, Britain, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Sweden, - two positions in the preferences of Russian travellers, - three positions in the preferences of Romanian travellers, - while falling one position in the preferences of Polish travellers. In conclusion, based on airline companies seat planning for 2018, the picture of the markets examined, which account for 76% of Greece s inbound tourism in 2016, is very positive, with almost all of the markets marking an increase. The exceptions are the markets of Russia (due to the depreciation of the ruble and Turkey s recovery as a destination) and Cyprus (marginal). 6
Airline seat planning at regional airports for summer period 2017-2018 AIRLINE SEAT PLANNING AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR SUMMER PERIOD 2017-2018 Number of Passengers Airport 2017 2018 Δ %Δ Heraklion 4.096.986 4.354.373 257.387 6% Rhodes 2.713.563 3.443.540 729.977 27% Thessaloniki 1.928.003 2.340.516 412.513 21% Corfu 1.673.318 2.079.784 406.466 24% Kos 1.227.826 1.723.693 495.867 40% Chania 1.245.296 1.530.933 285.637 23% Zakynthos 991.348 1.066.884 75.536 8% Santorini 587.439 738.402 150.963 26% Mykonos 469.520 666.074 196.554 42% Aktio 356.153 475.608 119.455 34% Kefalonia 332.960 438.278 105.318 32% Skiathos 240.636 272.680 32.044 13% Samos 149.306 213.328 64.022 43% Kalamata 132.292 210.199 77.907 59% Kavala 195.273 186.332-8.941-5% Karpathos 119.060 140.043 20.983 18% Araxos 87.704 121.357 33.653 38% Mytilene 60.117 102.607 42.490 71% Volos 25.261 39.298 14.037 56% Sitia 0 36.333 36.333 Limnos 11.610 18.374 6.764 58% Kythira 3.725 6.166 2.441 66% Chios 0 1.080 1.080 Total 16.647.396 20.205.882 3.558.486 21% Source: Hellenic Slot C oordination Authority (HSC A) - Processing: SETE Intelligence Significant note for base effect at Thessaloniki airport: In January 2017, the rebuilding / construction of the runway was announced, and therefore the 2017 planning had a reduced number of seats. This should be taken into account when comparing planning data between summer 2018 and summer 2017 for Thessaloniki airport. 7
Airline seat planning per source market at regional airports for summer period 2017-2018 AIRLINE SEAT PLANNING PER SOURCE MARKET AT REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR SUMMER PERIOD 2017-2018 Number of Passengers Countries of Origin 2017 2018 Δ %Δ Un. Kingdom 3.405.508 4.072.675 667.167 20% Germany 2.771.061 4.017.938 1.246.877 45% Italy 1.192.186 1.361.423 169.237 14% Poland 858.452 1.306.916 448.464 52% Russia 1.317.296 1.157.368-159.928-12% Netherlands 946.316 1.070.175 123.859 13% France 879.188 946.069 66.881 8% Sweden 619.278 742.316 123.038 20% Austria 373.545 596.032 222.487 60% Czech Republic 518.374 575.078 56.704 11% Denmark 455.526 552.826 97.300 21% Switzerland 450.015 537.194 87.179 19% Belgium 441.269 470.028 28.759 7% Cyprus 300.696 297.679-3.017-1% Romania 101.152 139.432 38.280 38% Turkey 89.312 94.727 5.415 6% Bulgaria 5.586 5.724 138 2% Others 1.922.636 2.262.282 339.646 18% Total 16.647.396 20.205.882 3.558.486 21% Source: Hellenic Slot C oordination Authority (HSC A) - Processing: SETE Intelligence Realised number of seats 2017: 15,2 mil. Arrivals 2017 - Regional Airports: 13,5 mil. - Athens: 4,8 mil. Detailed data per source market and per destination airport on following pages. 8
Markets under review* Germany 10 United Kingdom 11 France 12 USA 13 Italy 14 Netherlands 15 Russia 16 Romania 17 Poland 18 Switzerland 19 Belgium 20 Cyprus 21 Turkey 22 Bulgaria 23 Austria 24 Sweden 25 Czech Republic 26 Denmark 27 * In descending order of total expenditure in Greece 9
The outlook is favourable for the German market, due to the positive state of the economy (increased GDP and high consumer confidence index) and the large increase (+45%) in demand for airline seats. All of the Regional airports show a corresponding percentage increase, with the largest increases in absolute numbers being at Heraklion, Kos, Rhodes and Corfu. Outbound tourism from Germany: 91 mil. Top-5 destinations: Austria, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands Greece: 8 th place Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Croatia Arrivals: 3.139 K (13% - 1 st place) Overnights: 32.989 K (17% - 1 st place) Revenues: 2.128 mil. (17% - 1 st place) Avg. Spend: 678 Spend p.d.: 65 Average Length of Stay: 10,5 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Crete, Central Macedonia, South Aegean Heraklion 1.095.826 259.758 31% Thessaloniki 719.146 115.281 19% Rhodes 624.801 184.220 42% Kos 539.033 224.651 71% Corfu 361.903 144.420 66% Chania 115.431 26.964 30% Kavala 88.470 21.730 33% Santorini 77.298 44.136 133% Mykonos 76.005 35.325 87% Aktio 59.625 32.857 123% Kalamata 49.972 27.244 120% Samos 45.326 28.568 170% Zante 44.312 28.752 185% Araxos 32.130 10.017 45% Skiathos 25.760 10.640 70% Kefalonia 23.292 23.292 Karpathos 13.200 10.050 319% Sitia 12.420 12.420 Mytilene 7.940 5.364 208% Volos 6.048 1.188 24% Total 4.017.938 1.246.877 45% 10
The British market presents a mixed picture: due to the Brexit, both the Pound and consumer confidence are weaker, but there is a significant increase (+20%) in demand for seats on flights to the Regional Airports. The largest increases are seen at the airports of Rhodes, Corfu, Kefalonia and Aktio. Outbound tourism from United Kingdom: 69 mil. Top-5 destinations: Spain, France, Ireland, USA, Italy Greece: 6 th place Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus Arrivals: 2.895 K (12% - 2 nd place) Overnights: 26.583 K (14% - 2 nd place) Revenues: 1.944 mil. (15% - 2 nd place) Avg. Spend: 672 Spend p.d.: 73 Average Length of Stay: 9,2 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Ionian Islands, South Aegean, Crete Corfu 683.774 93.487 16% Rhodes 608.765 105.302 21% Heraklion 546.747 26.732 5% Zante 455.127 24.666 6% Kos 306.197 64.019 26% Kefalonia 291.779 76.511 36% Thessaloniki 231.989 50.281 28% Chania 217.050 39.581 22% Aktio 186.351 74.108 66% Santorini 167.584 31.796 23% Mykonos 117.715 22.583 24% Skiathos 115.902 14.271 14% Kalamata 60.812 18.495 44% Kavala 25.631-98 0% Samos 15.807 8.878 128% Mytilene 14.960 5.280 55% Volos 14.095 10.495 292% Lemnos 12.390 780 7% Total 4.072.675 667.167 20% 11
There is a positive outlook for the French market due to the positive economic situation and increased demand (+8%) for airline seats. But this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for seats on flights to Thessaloniki (in spite of the base effect; see page 7), Chania, Kos and Araxos, and increased demand for Heraklion, Rhodes, Corfu, Santorini, Mykonos, Kalamata and Volos. Outbound tourism from France: 26 mil. Top-5 destinations: Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, Germany, USA Greece: 7 th place Spain, Italy, Morocco, Greece, Turkey Arrivals: 1.314 K (5% - 5 th place) Overnights: 11.573 K (6% - 3 rd place) Revenues: 889 mil. (7% - 3 rd place) Avg. Spend: 677 Spend p.d.: 77 Average Length of Stay: 8,8 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Crete, South Aegean, Attica Heraklion 444.780 21.577 5% Rhodes 135.774 31.599 30% Corfu 101.749 1.554 2% Santorini 80.844 8.827 12% Mykonos 53.579 16.655 45% Thessaloniki 47.505-7.236-13% Kalamata 24.134 8.719 57% Chania 19.377-9.540-33% Kos 17.474-9.857-36% Sitia 10.584 10.584 Volos 6.615 1.701 35% Araxos 3.654-7.702-68% Total 946.069 66.881 8% 12
The American market presents a mixed picture: on the one hand, the U.S. economy is growing and consumer confidence is high, but at the same time the Dollar has lost significant ground against the Euro, while increased interest rates may inhibit growth and consumer confidence. There is no data on flight planning. Outbound tourism from USA: 73 mil. (2015) Top-5 destinations: Mexico, Canada, France, United Kingdom, Puerto Rico Greece: 25 th place Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Croatia Arrivals: 779 K (3% - 8 th place) Overnights: 8.178 K (4% - 5 th place) Revenues: 728 mil. (6% - 4 th place) Avg. Spend: 935 Spend. p.d.: 89 Average Length of Stay: 10,5 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Attica, South Aegean, Peloponnese 13
In spite of political instability, Italy s economy appears to be in good condition, with consumer confidence recovering and increased (+14%) demand for airline seats. But this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for Heraklion, Zakynthos, Skiathos and Samos, with increased demand showing for the Cyclades, the Dodecanese, Corfu, Thessaloniki (See page 7, base effect), Chania, Kefalonia, Aktio, Araxos and Kalamata. Outbound tourism from Italy: 31 mil. Top-5 destinations: France, Spain, United Kingdom, Germany, Greece Greece: 5 th place Spain, Greece, Croatia, Malta, Turkey Arrivals: 1.387 K (6% - 4 th place) Overnights: 11.598 K (6% - 3 rd place) Revenues: 722 mil. (6% - 4 th place) Avg. Spend: 521 Spend p.d.: 62 Average Length of Stay: 8,4 Top-3 destinations in Greece: South Aegean, Ionian Islands, Crete Mykonos 227.750 52.678 30% Rhodes 200.111 26.832 15% Santorini 186.411 27.257 17% Corfu 146.437 45.828 46% Heraklion 123.876-17.380-12% Thessaloniki 96.505 6.484 7% kos 73.325 14.796 25% Zante 61.113-1.961-3% Chania 60.291 2.079 4% Skiathos 47.435-2.636-5% Karpathos 44.795 10.725 31% Kefalonia 44.571 2.516 6% Aktio 25.709 1.264 5% Samos 15.460-1.167-7% Araxos 4.914 1.890 63% Kalamata 2.720 32 1% Total 1.361.423 169.237 14% 14
The outlook for the Dutch market is good, due to the positive state of economic affairs and increased demand (+13%) for seats on flights. However, this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for seats on flights to Heraklion, Corfu, Aktio, Kefalonia, Karpathos, Skiathos, Kalamata, Volos and Kythira, with increased demand for the Cyclades, the North Aegean, Kos, Rhodes, Zakynthos, Thessaloniki (see page 7, base effect), Chania and Kavala. Outbound tourism from Netherlands: 18 mil. Top-5 destinations: France, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, Austria Greece: 9 th place Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Croatia Arrivals: 771 K (3% - 8 th place) Overnights: 7.430 K (4% - 7 th place) Revenues: 481 mil. (4% - 6 th place) Avg. Spend: 624 Spend p.d.: 65 Average Length of Stay: 9,6 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Crete, South Aegean, Ionian Islands Heraklion 251.923-13.140-5% Kos 165.696 17.055 11% Rhodes 133.740 39.556 42% Zante 90.323 4.451 5% Corfu 76.791-8.105-10% Thessaloniki 71.147 31.628 80% Chania 55.755 15.993 40% Mytilene 48.768 20.316 71% Samos 37.752 11.116 42% Aktio 36.753-4.101-10% Santorini 22.160 10.619 92% Kefalonia 19.317-3.616-16% Karpathos 18.234-378 -2% Mykonos 14.389 5.446 61% Skiathos 8.178-561 -6% Kalamata 7.168-2.551-26% Volos 4.536-189 -4% Kavala 3.969 469 13% Kythira 3.576-149 -4% Total 1.070.175 123.859 13% 15
In the Russian market we see a fall in demand (-12%) for airline seats and a Ruble that has weakened over the past year. Meanwhile, however, the consumer confidence index has improved, and Russian Tour Operators, many of whom are controlled by Turkish interests, make their final decisions in March. A reduction is expected at all of the Regional airports, with the exception of the airports of Thessaloniki (see page 7, base effect), Corfu and Kalamata. Outbound tourism from Russia: 32 mil. Top-5 destinations: China, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Thailand, Spain Greece: 11 th place Spain, Turkey, Italy, Cyprus, Tunisia Arrivals: 596 K (2% - 12 th place) Overnights: 6.049 K (3% - 10 th place) Revenues: 436 mil. (3% - 7 th place) Avg. Spend: 732 Spend. p.d.: 72 Average Length of Stay: 10,2 Top-3 destinations in Greece: South Aegean, Crete, Central Macedonia Heraklion 509.404-193.040-27% Thessaloniki 266.720 72.522 37% Rhodes 196.249-21.331-10% Corfu 93.246 17.331 23% Kos 37.189-17.310-32% Araxos 15.480-2.670-15% Chania 12.240 12.240 Kalamata 11.580 7.950 219% Zante 8.060-7.108-47% Kavala 7.200-24.048-77% Santorini 0-4.464-100% Total 1.157.368-159.928-12% 16
In the Romanian market, increased demand (+38%) is seen for seats on flights, despite the deterioration in the Leu s exchange rate and the economic environment, which nevertheless remains at a high level. But this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for seats on flights to Zakynthos and Corfu, with increased demand for other destinations. It should be borne in mind that a significant number of Romanian tourists arrive by road and are last-minute visitors. Outbound tourism from Romania: 16 mil. Top-5 destinations: Hungary, Greece, United Kingdom, Italy, Ukraine Greece: 2 th place Greece, Italy, Turkey, Spain, Croatia Arrivals: 1.026 K (4% - 6 th place) Overnights: 6.835 K (4% - 8 th place) Revenues: 391 mil. (3% - 8 th place) Avg. Spend: 381 Spend p.d.: 57 Average Length of Stay: 6,7 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Central Macedonia, Eastern Macedonia & Thrace, Thessaly Heraklion 31.832 6.848 27% Thessaloniki 30.540 20.220 196% Zante 19.290-1.580-8% Rhodes 14.764 160 1% Chania 14.086 6.190 78% Corfu 9.674-290 -3% Santorini 4.714 168 4% Skiathos 3.960 240 6% Aktio 3.230 102 3% Kos 2.278 2.278 Kalamata 2.144 2.144 Samos 1.800 1.800 Mykonos 1.120 0 0% Total 139.432 38.280 38% 17
The outlook is favourable for the Polish market, due to the positive economic state of affairs (stronger Złoty and improved consumer confidence index) and increased demand (+52%) for airline seats. All of the Regional airports, with the exception of Kefalonia and Kalamata, are seeing an increase. The largest increases in absolute numbers are being seen at the airports of Rhodes, Kos, Heraklion and Corfu. Outbound tourism from Poland: 11 mil. Top-5 destinations: United Kingdom, Italy, Ukraine, Russia, Germany Greece: 8 th place Italy, Spain, Croatia, Greece, Turkey Arrivals: 735 K (3% - 10 th place) Overnights: 5.800 K (3% - 11 th place) Revenues: 342 mil. (3% - 9 th place) Avg. Spend: 466 Spend. p.d.: 59 Average Length of Stay: 7,9 Top-2 destinations in Greece: South Aegean, Ionian Islands Rhodes 274.613 121.300 79% Heraklion 219.725 77.315 54% Corfu 209.426 66.823 47% Kos 143.740 78.142 119% Zante 131.300 34.651 36% Chania 126.404 18.464 17% Thessaloniki 84.261 13.344 19% Araxos 31.058 15.939 105% Santorini 18.747 14.471 338% Aktio 14.391 2.374 20% Kefalonia 13.959-2.763-17% Kavala 13.726 2.575 23% Skiathos 9.720 3.240 50% Samos 6.426 3.024 89% Mytilene 5.460 2.247 70% Kalamata 3.960-2.682-40% Total 1.306.916 448.464 52% 18
There is a positive outlook for the Swiss market, due to the positive economic situation and increased demand (+19%) for airline seats, despite the Franc s losses against the Euro. Increased demand is being seen at all of the Regional airports, with the exception of those of Volos and Heraklion (marginal). The largest increases are seen at the airports of Mykonos, Santorini, Zakynthos and Rhodes. Outbound tourism from Switzerland: 14 mil. Top-5 destinations: France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Austria Greece: 8 th place Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Croatia Arrivals: 438 K (2% - 14 th place) Overnights: 3.865 K (2% - 13 th place) Revenues: 336 mil. (3% - 10 th place) Avg. Spend: 768 Spend p.d.: 87 Average Length of Stay: 8,8 Top destinations in Greece: Crete Heraklion 164.114-139 0% Rhodes 63.579 9.976 19% Kos 63.294 4.881 8% Mykonos 54.899 22.559 70% Thessaloniki 54.063 50 0% Santorini 40.632 17.190 73% Corfu 35.640 1.615 5% Zante 34.342 13.778 67% Samos 8.828 4.736 116% Araxos 6.860 4.160 154% Chania 4.860 4.860 Aktio 3.120 900 41% Kalamata 1.595 1.595 Kefalonia 1.368 1.368 Volos 0-350 -100% Total 537.194 87.179 19% 19
There is a positive outlook for the Belgian market, due to the positive economic situation and increased demand (+7%) for airline seats. But this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for Heraklion, Corfu, Zakynthos, Santorini and Araxos, and higher demand for Rhodes, Kos, Thessaloniki (see page 7, base effect), Chania, Mykonos and Volos. Outbound tourism from Belgium: 13 mil. Top-5 destinations: France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy Greece: 8 th place Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco Arrivals: 467 K (2% - 13 th place) Overnights: 4.306 K (2% - 12 th place) Revenues: 318 mil. (3% - 11 th place) Avg. Spend: 680 Spend p.d.: 74 Average Length of Stay: 9,2 Top destinations in Greece: Crete Heraklion 110.732-10.315-9% Rhodes 97.888 20.798 27% Kos 61.684 8.737 17% Thessaloniki 50.701 6.011 13% Chania 45.174 2.811 7% Corfu 40.547-7.880-16% Zante 19.293-3.465-15% Mykonos 14.166 5.670 67% Santorini 8.166-4.299-34% Volos 6.204 3.192 106% Kalamata 4.320 4.320 Samos 4.158 0 0% Mytilene 3.666 3.666 Araxos 3.329-487 -13% Total 470.028 28.759 7% 20
The outlook is negative for the Cypriot market, despite the positive economic situation, showing reduced demand (-1%) that is even greater if the demand for flights to Thessaloniki s airport is subtracted (see page 7, base effect). For other destinations, in absolute numbers, a significant increase is seen only in demand for flights to Mykonos. Outbound tourism from Cyprus: 1 mil. Top-5 destinations: Greece, United Kingdom, Turkey, Italy, Germany Greece: 1 st place Greece, Turkey, Italy, Spain, Malta Arrivals: 652 K (3% - 11 th place) Overnights: 6.379 K (3% - 9 th place) Revenues: 311 mil. (2% - 12 th place) Avg. Spend: 476 Spend. p.d.: 49 Average Length of Stay: 9,8 Top-2 destinations in Greece: Attica, Central Macedonia Thessaloniki 203.495 16.756 9% Chania 32.364-2.844-8% Heraklion 21.660-4.806-18% Mykonos 10.620 8.478 396% Rhodes 10.236-2.084-17% Skiathos 4.357-7.444-63% Aktio 3.948 550 16% Santorini 2.231 1.673 300% Kavala 1.701-2.155-56% Samos 1.701-299 -15% Kalamata 1.554 864 125% Kos 1.360-2.746-67% Kefalonia 1.300-700 -35% Zante 1.152 144 14% Mytilene 0-2.000-100% Karpathos 0-1.000-100% Corfu 0-5.404-100% Total 297.679-3.017-1% 21
The negative state of economic affairs in the Turkey, with ongoing losses for the Turkish Lira and large fluctuations in consumer confidence, bodes ill for incoming tourism from Turkey, in spite of the increase in demand for airline seats. Moreover, it should be borne in mind that a large number of Turkish tourists arrive by road or sea and are last-minute visitors. Outbound tourism from Turkey: 8 mil. Top-5 destinations: Greece, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Germany, Italy Greece: 1 st place Greece, Italy, Spain, Albania, Morocco Thessaloniki 71.610 2.294 3% Mykonos 15.185-4.811-24% Heraklion 7.749 7.749 Corfu 183 183 Total 94.727 5.415 6% Arrivals: 890 K (4% - 7 th place) Overnights: 3.449 K (2% - 14 th place) Revenues: 297 mil. (2% - 13 th place) Avg. Spend: 334 Spend. p.d.: 86 Average Length of Stay: 3,9 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Eastern Macedonia & Thrace, Attica, North Aegean 22
The positive state of the Bulgarian market, with an economic sentiment indicator at very high levels and the Lev s locked exchange rate with the Euro, bodes well for inbound tourism from Bulgaria, in spite of the marginal increase in demand for airline seats, as due consideration must be given to the large number of inbound Bulgarian tourists arriving by road, and, therefore, having last-minute charateristics. Outbound tourism from Bulgaria: 5 mil. Top-5 destinations: Greece, Turkey, Hungary, United Kingdom, Spain Greece: 1 st place Greece, Turkey, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus Heraklion 2.268-1.050-32% Santorini 1.512 0 0% Corfu 1.188 1.188 Zante 756 0 0% Total 5.724 138 2% Arrivals: 2.523 K (10% - 3 rd place) Overnights: 7.735 K (4% - 6 th place) Revenues: 296 mil. (2% - 13 th place) Avg. Spend: 117 Spend. p.d.: 38 Average Length of Stay: 3,1 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Central Macedonia, Eastern Macedonia & Thrace, Western Macedonia 23
There is a positive outlook for the Austrian market due to the positive economic situation and increased demand (+60%) for airline seats. But this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for seats on flights to Thessaloniki (in spite of the base effect; see page 7), Zakynthos, Samos, Kavala and Mytilene, with increased demand for the Cyclades, the Dodecanese, Crete, Corfu, Kalamata, Aktio, Skiathos, Kefalonia and Araxos. Outbound tourism from Austria: 12 mil. Top-5 destinations: Italy, Germany, Hungary, Croatia, Spain Greece: 7 th place Italy, Croatia, Spain, Greece, Turkey Arrivals: 359 K (1% - 16 th place) Overnights: 3.267 K (2% - 16 th place) Revenues: 251 mil. (2% - 15 th place) Avg. Spend: 700 Spend. p.d.: 77 Average Length of Stay: 9,1 Top destinations in Greece: Ionian Islands Rhodes 142.061 90.977 178% Heraklion 104.363 31.493 43% Kos 73.734 54.918 292% Corfu 47.812 23.532 97% Thessaloniki 40.964-6.240-13% Santorini 38.356 8.524 29% Chania 34.102 8.728 34% Zante 20.824-4.626-18% Kalamata 16.132 9.360 138% Aktio 14.674 2.252 18% Karpathos 14.070 2.640 23% Mykonos 10.962 5.227 91% Samos 9.000-360 -4% Skiathos 8.244 4.020 95% Kavala 7.740-7.020-48% Kefalonia 5.698 598 12% Mytilene 3.060-1.620-35% Araxos 2.436 84 4% Volos 1.800 0 0% Total 596.032 222.487 60% 24
There are positive prospects for the Swedish market, where there is increased demand (+20%) for airline seats, despite the Swedish Krona s slide and fluctuations in the consumer confidence index. An increase has been seen at all the Regional airports, with those of Chania, Rhodes and Kos seeing the highest increases. Outbound tourism from Sweden: - mil. Top-5 destinations: Spain, Denmark, Germany, United Kingdom, France Greece: 9 th place Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Croatia Arrivals: 413 K (2% - 15 th place) Overnights: 3.472 K (2% - 14 th place) Revenues: 221 mil. (2% - 16 th place) Avg. Spend: 536 Spend. p.d.: 64 Average Length of Stay: 8,4 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Chania 245.973 50.611 26% Rhodes 210.834 34.474 20% Heraklion 41.627 2.911 8% Thessaloniki 41.016 3.644 10% Kos 36.349 7.420 26% Samos 27.403 4.141 18% Zante 26.305 3.003 13% Aktio 22.780 2.227 11% Corfu 18.996 1.488 8% Skiathos 14.382 1.128 9% Santorini 13.335 2.353 21% Karpathos 11.487 614 6% Kefalonia 9.383 522 6% Kalamata 8.226 4.200 104% Kavala 7.620 522 7% Sitia 3.780 3.780 Mykonos 2.820 0 0% Total 742.316 123.038 20% 25
There is a positive outlook for the Czech market due to high consumer confidence, the strong Czech Koruna and increased demand (+11%) for airline seats. But this increased demand is not distributed evenly throughout the country, as there is reduced demand for seats on flights to Heraklion, Rhodes, Zakynthos, Thessaloniki (in spite of the base effect; see page 7), Samos and Mykonos, with increased demand for Kos, Corfu, Aktio, Chania, Kavala, Skiathos, Santorini, Karpathos, Kalamata and Kefalonia. Outbound tourism from Czech Republic: 6 mil. Top-5 destinations: Italy, Hungary, Austria, Croatia, Slovakia Greece: 8 th place Italy, Croatia, Greece, Spain, Egypt Arrivals: 280 K (1% - 17 th place) Overnights: 2.328 K (1% - 17 th place) Revenues: 123 mil. (1% - 17 th place) Avg. Spend: 439 Spend p.d.: 53 Average Length of Stay: 8,3 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Heraklion 132.111-6.444-5% Rhodes 100.418-2.012-2% Kos 69.381 32.805 90% Corfu 64.530 13.154 26% Zante 54.621-26.142-32% Aktio 26.883 5.031 23% Chania 21.042 12.726 153% Kavala 19.827 13.023 191% Thessaloniki 16.317-9.810-38% Skiathos 13.230 7.749 141% Santorini 9.904 126 1% Karpathos 9.261 5.265 132% Kalamata 9.205 6.748 275% Kefalonia 8.942 107 1% Samos 6.615-2.853-30% Araxos 3.604 3.604 Lemnos 3.384 3.384 Mytilene 3.213 3.213 Kythira 2.590 2.590 Mykonos 0-5.560-100% Total 575.078 56.704 11% 26
There is a positive outlook for the Danish market due to a positive economic situation, slight depreciation of the Danish Krone and increased demand (+21%) for airline seats. Increased demand is being seen at all of the Regional airports, with the exception of Thessaloniki (in spite of the base effect; see page 7) and Kalamata, with the airports of Chania, Heraklion, Rhodes and Kos showing the highest increases. Outbound tourism from Denmark: 10 mil. Top-5 destinations: Germany, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, France Greece: 11 th place Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Croatia Arrivals: 242 K (1% - 18 th place) Overnights: 1.984 K (1% - 18 th place) Revenues: 133 mil. (1% - 17 th place) Avg. Spend: 549 Spend. p.d.: 67 Average Length of Stay: 8,2 Top-3 destinations in Greece: Chania 208.876 45.778 28% Rhodes 124.264 12.069 11% Heraklion 41.548 12.521 43% Aktio 33.972 6.908 26% Kos 28.758 11.342 65% Zante 22.992 4.830 27% Thessaloniki 19.946-3.627-15% Corfu 19.944 870 5% Samos 12.932 2.521 24% Mytilene 8.740 3.528 68% Sitia 8.280 8.280 Skiathos 7.258 294 4% Santorini 6.144 168 3% Karpathos 3.780 360 11% Kefalonia 3.600 0 0% Kavala 1.792 0 0% Kalamata 0-8.542-100% Total 552.826 97.300 21% 27
Sources UNWTO 2015. Bank of Greece 2016. European Commission, European Performance and Forecasts (autumn, winter 2017). OECD, Consumer Confidence Index, 2013-2017. Eurostat, Economic Sentiment Indicator 2017. Naftemporiki, Currency Rates. Hellenic Slot Coordination Authority (HSCA). 28
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