Air Carrier E-surance (ACE) Design of Insurance for Airline EC-261 Claims May 06, 2016 Tommy Hertz Chris Saleh Taylor Scholz Arushi Verma
Outline Background Problem Statement Related Work and Methodology Project Scope System Architecture Cost Models Analysis Methodology Demonstration Results and Next Steps Questions 2
Background Airlines are complex systems with distributed decision making Certain authorities are delegated to captains, gate agents, flight attendants, etc. Safety and timing are two main concerns Decisions are typically made with limited information, a lot of uncertainty In the European Union (EU) and United States, 70-80% of flights arrive on time (within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival) By the year 2007, the number of flights offered at major hubs were approaching capacity High frequency of on-time arrival or short delays Low occurrence rate of longer delays (longest delays would typically approach 2 or 3 hours) In 2007, the frequency of longer delays increased dramatically In response to rising delays, the EU released European Commission 261 (EC-261) EU version of the American Passenger Bill of Rights 3
Background (cont d) EC-261 is a consumer protection regulation for airline passengers Airlines based in the EU or servicing EU airports must compensate passengers for (i) delayed flights, (ii) cancelled flights, or (iii) denied boarding (i.e. oversold flights) EC-261 has been successful in Europe thus far having airlines make necessary adjustments to their schedules and protocols Airline costs are growing, incentivizing them to improve performance Gives consumers a recourse to address abuses by airlines As consumers become more aware of the regulation, airline costs are going to increase and could exceed 5% of the total direct operating costs Further, these costs are variable costs and are difficult for the airlines to account for in their budgets Airlines would like a way to hedge against excessive compensation and move variable costs to fixed costs 4
Problem Statement Given: - European Union (EU) airline passengers protection regulation EC-261 - Increased consumer awareness of the regulation - Airline costs are projected to increase and could exceed 5% of the total direct operating costs Problem Statement: (1) Design an EC-261 insurance system for airlines (2) The system shall be Automated (automated payout based on real time flight performance data), Web-based (3) Yield at least a 5% profit more than 99% of the time By Choice of: Burning cost model Ruin model Monte Carlo simulation Subject to: Data availability (historical, domestic arrivals to DCA) 5
Related Work and Methodology No products or services currently exist to insure airlines against EC-261 costs Costs are forecasted internally Analysis approach: 1. Analyze existing flight data for DCA arrivals (chosen as representative airport by sponsor) 2. Assess probabilities of compensation events 3. Use compensation probabilities to build cost models and premium assessment 4. Develop lightweight web interface as a prototype 5. Develop charts and descriptive documents to fully detail system functionality (companion to those portions that will be prototyped) 6
Project Scope Cost models and premium assessments Flights grouped into 3 categories by EC-261 Type 1: less than 1500 km Type 2 (domestic): greater than 1500 km Type 2 (international): between 1500 km and 3500 km Type 3: all others greater than 3500 km Analyzed Type 1 and domestic Type 2 events Cancellations Delays Sensitivity analysis of premium assessments Mock-up of web interface 7
Project Scope (cont d) Compensation Rates Table Definitions Delayed Cancelled Overbooked DELAY (at final destination after potential rebooking and/or rerouting) less than 2 hour more than 2 hour more than 3 hour more than 4 hour never arrived Flight Type 0 0 250 250 250 Type 1 0 0 400 400 400 Type 2 0 0 600 600 600 Type 3 0 250 250 250 250 Type 1 0 200 200 400 400 Type 2 0 300 300 600 600 Type 3 0 0 250 250 250 Type 1 0 0 400 400 400 Type 2 0 0 600 600 600 Type 3 Will be considered No-penalty events (no need to evaluate) Will not be accounted for in this model 8
System Architecture 9
High-Level Architecture Webpage Client-facing Insurance application Account login and review Network Access Controls Network Access Controls Web Service Premium assessment Payment control Secure database access Client Database Account storage & management Encrypted storage Secure network access Payment System Interface from web service to banking API Secure networking, no data storage Flight Tracking System Daily flight evaluation Push information to web service for payout assessment 10
Web Interface Client-facing webpage Application for coverage Premium-payment interface Account review Back-end web service (outside scope) Flight tracking and penalty assessment Daily updates Leverage existing pay-by-request web APIs Payment processing and control Secure database access Network-based security Encrypted data storage 11
Web Interface (cont d) For practicality within the time frame of this project, we have implemented a static rendition of what we would envision our website (http://tjhertz.wix.com/aceinsurance) to appear as. Currently the website does not perform any functionality other than serve as an example to provide estimates and historical flight logs of EC-261 violations. 12
Web Interface (cont d) 13
Payment System Payment of claims will be accomplished using Electronic Funds Transfers (EFTs) In the U.S, EFTs go through the Automated Clearing House (ACH) There are similar establishments for international transactions (i.e. EACHA for the EU) Access to ACH is typically through an intermediate service These services typically assess subscription and/or transaction fees Web Service will leverage an existing API to make payments Payment System Web Service Client Database ACE Bank Account ACH Client Account/Payment System ACH Access Provider 14
Client Database Storing bank account information raises serious security concerns Typical approach to such storage If at all possible, don t do it If you have to do it, hire a security professional Major components Network security Data encryption Network Access Controls Web Service Premium assessment Payment control Secure database access Client Database Account storage & management Encrypted storage Secure network access 15
Cost Models 16
Analysis Methodology Completed analysis of DCA flight data from 2010 to 2015 Analysis included: Weekly, monthly, and quarterly assessment of event probabilities Projection of re-bookings based on flight cancellations Flight loading rates Burning Cost and Ruin Model assessment Monte Carlo simulation Sensitivity analysis Based in Excel Worksheets can dynamically update probability assessments based on airline selection Event probabilities feed the cost models and premium evaluation 17
Analysis Methodology (cont d) Use Burning Cost and Ruin Models as preliminary premium assessment method Burning Cost is a simple model, used to compute expected payouts: Premium = Expected Cost + Risk and Cost of Capital + Cost of Claim Processing + Profit Margin + Management Risk Adjustment Ruin Model is used to compute amount required in holding to survive worst-case scenario, it can be simplified for this scenario as follows: Initial Holdings >= 99.5 th Percentile Expected Cost - Premium Use Monte Carlo simulations to produce alternative premium assessment methods Simulation likely provides a more conservative cost estimate, and therefore a more conservative required premium Models interconnection of compensation events (12 unique, log-normal random variables) Use Ruin Model as above to compute amount required in holding for Monte Carlo-based premium 18
Demonstration 19
Results and Next Steps 20
Cost Model Results Airline/Quarter Minimum Profitability Average Profitability American Airlines/US Airways JetBlue Airways AirTran Airways/Southwest Airways United Airlines Quarter 1 14.37 M 10.12 M Quarter 2 5.17 M 4.38 M Quarter 3 6.55 M 5.19 M Quarter 4 6.49 M 4.17 M Quarter 1 5.14 M 3.26 M Quarter 2 1.13 M 787 K Quarter 3 1.89 M 1.25 M Quarter 4 1.49 M 855 K Quarter 1 5.51 M 3.44 M Quarter 2 1.30 M 933 K Quarter 3 1.40 M 1.08 M Quarter 4 1.90 M 397 K Quarter 1 1.12 M 994 K Quarter 2 813 K 618 K Quarter 3 830 K 621 K 21 Quarter 4 599 K 397 K
Historical Comparison 25000000 Coverage Amounts and Incurred Penalties (American Airlines) 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 2010-1 2011-1 2012-1 2013-1 2014-1 2015-1 Total Coverage Amount Premium (Min. Profit) Actual Cost Approximate Profit: 82M (40% of charged premiums) 22
Historical Comparison 5000000 Coverage Amounts and Incurred Penalties (United) 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2010-1 2011-1 2012-1 2013-1 2014-1 2015-1 Total Coverage Amount Premium (Min. Profit) Actual Cost Approximate Profit: 13.4M (39% of charged premiums) 23
Follow-on Work Fully develop web prototype Attach web service to premium calculation and flight database Incorporate real-time flight tracking Incorporate client information database Select and develop payment system Develop client database and implement required security 24
Questions? 25
Back-up 26
Deliverables Document the complete compensation rules for EC 261 Document the transactions and processes that must be conducted to calculate premiums, sell insurance contracts, and payout the insurance Analyze the probabilities of compensation events for each major airline operating at DCA Calculate premiums for airline insurance based on their historic flight performance and event probabilities using insurance models (e.g. Burning Cost Model and Ruin Model) Conduct a sensitivity analysis on the insurance models to meet profit performance targets Design and prototype the Web-based/Automated insurance processing system 27
Flight Type Definitions Type 1 Flight of less than 1,500 kilometers in distance Type 2 (domestic) Flight of greater than 1,500 kilometers Type 2 (international) Flight of greater than 1,500 kilometers in distance, but less than 3,500 kilometers Type 3 International flight, greater than 3,500 kilometers in distance Return 28
Flight Definitions Denied Boarding 1. When an operating air carrier reasonably expects to deny boarding on a flight, it shall first call for volunteers to surrender their reservations in exchange for benefits under conditions to be agreed between the passenger concerned and the operating air carrier. Volunteers shall be assisted in accordance with Article 8, such assistance being additional to the benefits mentioned in this paragraph. 2. If an insufficient number of volunteers comes forward to allow the remaining passengers with reservations to board the flight, the operating air carrier may then deny boarding to passengers against their will. 3. If boarding is denied to passengers against their will, the operating air carrier shall immediately compensate them in accordance with Article 7 and assist them in accordance with Articles 8 and 9. Return 29
Flight Definitions Cancellation 1. In case of cancellation of a flight, the passengers concerned shall: (a) be offered assistance by the operating air carrier in accordance with Article 8; and (b) be offered assistance by the operating air carrier in accordance with Article 9(1)(a) and 9(2), as well as, in event of rerouting when the reasonably expected time of departure of the new flight is at least the day after the departure as it was planned for the cancelled flight, the assistance specified in Article 9(1)(b) and 9(1)(c); and (c) have the right to compensation by the operating air carrier in accordance with Article 7, unless: (i) they are informed of the cancellation at least two weeks before the scheduled time of departure; or (ii) they are informed of the cancellation between two weeks and seven days before the scheduled time of departure and are offered re-routing, allowing them to depart no more than two hours before the scheduled time of departure and to reach their final destination less than four hours after the scheduled time of arrival; or (iii) they are informed of the cancellation less than seven days before the scheduled time of departure and are offered re-routing, allowing them to depart no more than one hour before the scheduled time of departure and to reach their final destination less than two hours after the scheduled time of arrival. 2. When passengers are informed of the cancellation, an explanation shall be given concerning possible alternative transport. 3. An operating air carrier shall not be obliged to pay compensation in accordance with Article 7, if it can prove that the cancellation is caused by extraordinary circumstances which could not have been avoided even if all reasonable measures had been taken. 4. The burden of proof concerning the questions as to whether and when the passenger has been informed of the cancellation of the flight shall rest with the operating air carrier. Return 30
Flight Definitions Delay 1. When an operating air carrier reasonably expects a flight to be delayed beyond its scheduled time of departure: (a) for two hours or more in the case of flights of 1,500 kilometers (approx. 932 miles) or less; or (b) for three hours or more in the case of all intra-community flights of more than 1 500 kilometers and of all other flights between 1,500 and 3,500 kilometers (approx. 2,175 miles); or (c) for four hours or more in the case of all flights not falling under (a) or (b), passengers shall be offered by the operating air carrier: (i) the assistance specified in Article 9(1)(a) and 9(2); and (ii) when the reasonably expected time of departure is at least the day after the time of departure previously announced, the assistance specified in Article 9(1)(b) and 9(1)(c); and (iii) when the delay is at least five hours, the assistance specified in Article 8(1)(a). 2. In any event, the assistance shall be offered within the time limits set out above with respect to each distance bracket. Return 31
Article 7 Right to Compensation 1. Where reference is made to this Article, passengers shall receive compensation amounting to: (a) EUR 250 (278.99 USD) for all flights of 1,500 kilometers (approx. 932 miles) or less; (b) EUR 400 (446.38 USD) for all intra-community flights of more than 1,500 kilometers, and for all other flights between 1,500 and 3,500 kilometers (approx. 2,175 miles); (c) EUR 600 (669.57 USD) for all flights not falling under (a) or (b). In determining the distance, the basis shall be the last destination at which the denial of boarding or cancellation will delay the passenger's arrival after the scheduled time. 2. When passengers are offered re-routing to their final destination on an alternative flight pursuant to Article 8, the arrival time of which does not exceed the scheduled arrival time of the flight originally booked (a) by two hours, in respect of all flights of 1,500 kilometers or less; or (b) by three hours, in respect of all intra-community flights of more than 1,500 kilometers and for all other flights between 1,500 and 3,500 kilometers; or (c) by four hours, in respect of all flights not falling under (a) or (b), the operating air carrier may reduce the compensation provided for in paragraph 1 by 50 %. 3. The compensation referred to in paragraph 1 shall be paid in cash, by electronic bank transfer, bank orders or bank checks or, with the signed agreement of the passenger, in travel vouchers and/or other services. 4. The distances given in paragraphs 1 and 2 shall be measured by the great circle route method (shortest distance). Return 32
Article 8 Right to Reimbursement or Re-routing 1. Where reference is made to this Article, passengers shall be offered the choice between: (a) reimbursement within seven days, by the means provided for in Article 7(3), of the full cost of the ticket at the price at which it was bought, for the part or parts of the journey not made, and for the part or parts already made if the flight is no longer serving any purpose in relation to the passenger's original travel plan, together with, when relevant, a return flight to the first point of departure, at the earliest opportunity; (b) re-routing, under comparable transport conditions, to their final destination at the earliest opportunity; or (c) re-routing, under comparable transport conditions, to their final destination at a later date at the passenger's convenience, subject to availability of seats. 2. Paragraph 1(a) shall also apply to passengers whose flights form part of a package, except for the right to reimbursement where such right arises under Directive 90/314/EEC. 3. When, in the case where a town, city or region is served by several airports, an operating air carrier offers a passenger a flight to an airport alternative to that for which the booking was made, the operating air carrier shall bear the cost of transferring the passenger from that alternative airport either to that for which the booking was made, or to another close-by destination agreed with the passenger. Return 33
Article 9 Right to Care 1. Where reference is made to this Article, passengers shall be offered free of charge: (a) meals and refreshments in a reasonable relation to the waiting time; (b) hotel accommodation in cases where a stay of one or more nights becomes necessary, or where a stay additional to that intended by the passenger becomes necessary; (c) transport between the airport and place of accommodation (hotel or other). 2. In addition, passengers shall be offered free of charge two telephone calls, telex or fax messages, or e-mails. 3. In applying this Article, the operating air carrier shall pay particular attention to the needs of persons with reduced mobility and any persons accompanying them, as well as to the needs of unaccompanied children. Return 34